Senate Tip Sheet: Eight Days Before General Election

The Senate has pretty much broken down into one competitive race and one to keep an eye on. Because Republicans have won so many seats and two of the Democrat-leaning districts have Republican incumbents seeking reelection with Sen. Gary Romine and Sen. Ryan Silvey, the map is very small. Republicans are hoping the 1st and 11th Districts see a huge Trump-inspired turnout of voters intent to elect Republicans to pick up even more seats.

Along with moving SD 17 to SAFE REPUBLICAN, we have gone ahead and moved SD 15 and SD 23 to SAFE REPUBLICAN. With Republicans looking to have some momentum and the Democratic campaigns in the districts underfunded, the small chances for Democratic pickups there have not materialized.

COMPETITIVE – 1

SD 19 (D+0.7) OPEN – Schaefer COMPETITIVE

There have been several narratives coming out of the most expensive Senate race in state history. Some estimate between 4.5 and 5 million dollars will be spent on the race. Webber has run some of the best television ads of the cycle, but Rowden has run a pragmatic, data-driven campaign that has hammered Webber’s missed votes in the House.

Democrats will tell you that the strength of University of Missouri employees and the typically Democratic stronghold of Columbia will power Webber to a win. Republicans are talking about a Rowden campaign that is piquing at just the right time. We will see next week. Until then, it’s too close to call.

(D) Rep. Stephen Webber

votewebber.com @s_webber

Contributions this period: $219,800.00
Contributions this election: $689,768.17
Cash on hand: $43,268.17

(R) Rep. Caleb Rowden

calebrowden.com @CalebRowden

Contributions this period: $604,272.00
Contributions this election: $1,517,183.40
Cash on hand: $334,068.76

LEAN REPUBLICAN – 0

LEAN DEMOCRAT – 1

SD 1 (D+5.1) – Sifton LEAN DEMOCRAT

This race has been one that Republicans have been explaining a narrative of a huge Trump turnout combined with money parity leading Jotte to win in a wave election. It looks like some of those ingredients are coming together in South County with a big Trump wave that looks to be building.

However, most on the ground will tell you that it’s possible that this swing district swings the way of the top of the ticket. The smart money is on Sen. Scott Sifton being re-elected in a close and hard-fought race.

(D) Sen. Scott Sifton

scottsifton.com @scottsifton

Contributions this period: $137,405.00
Contributions this election: $2,047,257.84
Cash on hand: $247,708.65

(R) Randy Jotte

randyjotte.com @randyjotte

Contributions this period: $378,937.00
Contributions this election: $740,772.86
Cash on hand: $85,587.27

LIKELY DEMOCRAT – 1

SD11 (D+8.9) OPEN – LeVota LIKELY DEMOCRAT

In a similar argument as in SD 1, there is a theory that a Trump win in northern Jackson County, which could happen, will translate into a Republican wave in the state Senate race, which does not appear to have happened. There was a lot of attention paid to the moving of $250,000 into the Republican’s western Missouri committee, but that looks more like a head fake than a real commitment to SD 11. Until you see that money being spent it looks like this race will only serve as a decoy for Republicans and the 8th Senate seat for the Democrats.

(D) Rep. John Rizzo

johnrizzo.org @johnjrizzo