This year’s midterm elections began with little drama, but only because most of the races are uncompetitive. All the political talent has converged on the two senate toss up races. It is obviously going to be a good year for Republicans and we are hearing that there will be a Republican surge, but those surges don’t always materialize on election day. The debate comes down to how big will the supermajority be and have the Republicans taken over Jefferson County?
SD 24 (D+3.7): TOSS UP
Representative Jill Schupp
Consultant: Mike Pridmore
Amount Raised: $1,435,801.33
Cash on Hand: $122,043.38
Website: jillschupp.com
Jay Ashcroft
Consultant: Victory Enterprises
Amount Raised: $1,095,135.70
Cash on Hand: $243,895.46
Website: ashcroftforsenate.com
Every piece of political talent is in West County. A few weeks ago, Democrats realized that this race was more competitive than they originally thought. Some Democrats felt that the Ashcroft name would prove to be an albatross for him, but that hasn’t materialized and the race is very competitive. Jay Ashcroft has proven to be a good candidate – he is disciplined in staying on message to the extent that in the Post’s imminent endorsement of Schupp they mostly criticized his lack of posi- tions than criticizing his positions.
The senate Republicans have gone all in to support Ashcroft since the primary and have shown their support most recent- ly with a $250,000 donation that was equaled by a $250,000 independent media buy from Missouri Club for Growth PAC. To counter that, Senator Claire McCaskill and Attorney General Chris Koster donated $50,000 each, totaling $100,000, to the Party and we hear that a great deal of that is going to Schupp.
We understand Schupp’s abortion ads are proving effective. However, Ashcroft has a new, stinging attack on Schupp’s voting record regarding child molestors. It will be fun to watch both campaign’s work this weekend. This race will come down to turnout, which may be impacted by the Stenger/Stream race for St. Louis Co exec. This is the most competitive race in the state right now. It will be an interesting test of both campaign’s turnout machines in a densely populated area like subur- ban West County.
SD 22 (D+1.2): TOSS UP
Representative Jeff Roorda
Consultant: R.W. Burke Company
Amount Raised: $759,273.82
Cash on Hand: $69,301.81
Website: jeffroorda.org
Representative Paul Wieland
Consultant: Barklage and Knodell
Amount Raised: $874,951.15
Cash on Hand: $230,181.71
Website: wielandnow.com
If the biggest issue in this race is Obama, it will be difficult for Roorda to outpace the unpopular President – if he can localize it then he has the upper hand. 2014 will not be as big for Republicans as 2010 was, but many predict it will be close due to decreased Democratic intensity. After six years of Obama it will be hard to motivate Jefferson County Democrats a great deal to the polls, but with no federal election Republicans may not be as energized either. If Roorda wasn’t such a good candidate with a good machine and top flight campaign manager, the race would be lean-Wieland based on Obama’s dismal ratings in the county alone.
One wedge issue between Roorda and Obama was Roorda’s help raising funds for the legal defense of Officer Darren Wilson. Je will certainly benefit if he can keep that issue alive another week.
Wieland, to his credit, has done everything that he needs to do to win this race – he has stayed on message and has po- sitioned himself in a great spot to take advantage of a good Republican night on the first Tuesday of November. Wieland’s campaign had a brief setback because of the death of his father-in-law, causing him to take a few days off, but that likely won’t hurt him as much in a state senate race as it would in a higher profile race. The question is becoming – will the support of the police and labor for Roorda be able to outweigh Obama? Also, Rex Sinquefield and Missourians for Excellence in Government donated $70,000 to the Jefferson County Labor PAC, which has apparently been funneled straight to the aid of Roorda to turnout Democrats.
SAFE REPUBLICAN (4)
SD 6 (R+12.5) Senator Mike Kehoe, Cole County
SD 10 (R+4.7) Rep. Ed Schieffer vs. Rep. Jeannie Riddle
SD 26 (R+9.8) Representative Dave Schatz, Franklin County
SD 34 (R+0.8) Dr. Robert Stuber vs. Senator Rob Schaaf
SAFE DEMOCRAT (1)
SD 4 (D+24.5) Senator Joe Keaveny, St. Louis City
UNOPPOSED REPUBLICAN (9)
SD 2 (R+6.9) Dr. Bob Onder, St. Charles County
SD 8 (R+3.8) Senator Will Kraus, Jackson County
SD 12 (R+8.4) Dan Hegeman, Andrew County
SD 16 (R+11.2) Senator Dan Brown, Phelps County
SD 18 (R+5.6) Senator Brian Munzlinger, Lewis County
SD 20 (R+16.1) Senator Jay Wasson, Christian County
SD 28 (R+11.8) Senator Mike Parson, Polk County
SD 30 (R+4.6) Senator Bob Dixon, Greene County
SD 32 (R+19.5) Senator Ron Richard, Newton County
UNOPPOSED DEMOCRAT (1)
SD 14 (D+18.9) Senator Maria Chappelle-Nadal, St. Louis County
RETURNING REPUBLICAN (11)
SD 3 (D+4.4) Senator Gary Romine, Ste. Genevieve County
SD 15 (R+9.3) Senator Eric Schmitt, St. Louis County
SD 17 (R+0.8) Senator Ryan Silvey, Clay County
SD 19 (D+0.7) Senator Kurt Schaefer, Boone County
SD 21 (R+4.9) Senator David Pearce, Johnson County
SD 23 (R+3.3) Senator Tom Dempsey, St. Charles County
SD 25 (R+11.4) Senator Doug Libla, Butler County
SD 27 (R+16.4) Senator Wayne Wallingford, Cape Girardeau County SD 29
(R+19.9) Senator David Sater, Barry County
SD 31 (R+6.2) Senator Ed Emery, Henry County
SD 33 (R+15.7) Senator Mike Cunningham, Webster County
RETURNING DEMOCRAT (6)
SD 1 (D+5.1) Senator Scott Sifton, St. Louis County
SD 5 (D+39.9) Senator Jamilah Nasheed, St. Louis City
SD 7 (D+20.8) Senator Jason Holsman, Jackson County
SD 9 (D+33.9) Senator Kiki Curls, Jackson County
SD 11 (D+8.9) Senator Paul Levota, Jackson County
SD 13 (D+27.5) Senator Gina Walsh, St. Louis County
Republicans
Lean Republican: 0
Safe Republican: 4
Unopposed Republican: 9
Returning Republican: 11
Total: 24
Democrats
Lean Democrat: 0
Safe Democrat: 1
Unopposed Democrat: 1
Returning Democrat: 6
Total: 8
Toss Up: 2
Rachael Herndon was the editor at The Missouri Times and also produced This Week in Missouri Politics, published Missouri Times Magazine, and co-hosted the #MoLeg podcast. She joined The Missouri Times in 2014, returning to political reporting after working as a campaign and legislative staffer.
Rachael studied at the University of Missouri – Columbia. She lives in Jefferson City with her husband, Brandon, and their two children.
