Sneak Peak: A preview of 2016 senate races

  

We took a look at the top senate races in the state, and the complete list of returning senator’s fundraising totals.

10 Senate Races to Watch

#1. SD 19 OPEN (Schaefer leaving)

This will be the hottest senate race in the state, and will likely cost as much as some statewide races. The Democrats have coalesced behind Representative Stephen Webber. He is a veteran and a law school grad campaigning full time and every Democrat is bullish on him. The Republicans still don’t have a candidate, but have a few very intriguing prospects in Reps. Caleb Jones, and Caleb Rowden. Either will make this a marquee matchup, matching Webber with both youth and local roots. Rowden in running for house leadership this summer, and Jones is taking his time in deciding. Word on the street in Columbia is that this race starts with a Dem advantage, a testament to Schaefer’s vote getting ability, but is one where the national and state climate could be the difference in a razor thin very expensive race.

Democrats

Representative Stephen Webber

Raised this quarter: $132,435.25

Raised this cycle: $270,791.20

COH: $310,179.58

Republicans

Representative Caleb Jones

Raised this quarter: $ 39,121.54

Raised this cycle: $ 104,616.94

COH: $ 212,524.00

Representative Caleb Rowden

Raised this quarter: $ 25,525,00

Raised this cycle: $ 30,745,03

COH: $ 54,782.05

#2. SD 1 OPEN (Sifton leaving)

This is a main event race in 2016. Sifton defeated Republican incumbent Jim Lembke in 2012 in a very close contest. This time, the race will be to succeed him, with the Republicans solidly behind Rep. Marsha Haefner, who will square off at this time against former Representative Vicki Englund. Republican women in districts with these demographics typically run strong, but this could be a race where the national and state political climates influence a close race. One thing to remember is that while Englund has won and lost a couple races in South County, she has consistently won re-election to the Lindberg School Board, a voting bloc larger than that of a state rep. in an area that encompasses a large portion of SD1. This race will likely be a toss up to the end.

Democrat

Former Representative Vicki Englund

*Not filed by the quarterly deadline.

Republican

Representative Marsha Haefner

Raised this quarter: $500.00

Raised this cycle: $4,490.70

COH: $11,349.11

#3. SD 23 OPEN (Dempsey leaving)

This race is all about the primary, for now. While this is a seat is held by a Republican it’s a very, very competitive seat. The Democrats likely have no chance if Rep. Zerr wins the primary, but if she doesn’t then this could be the third hyper completive seat in November. The primary will likely break down with two candidates competing for the right wing and Zerr the favorite. This will be a primary with many different interests putting money in. Don’t under estimate Eigel in this race. Victory Enterprises is working with him and it’s evident from his report that he will have enough money to be a factor. While Zerr is the frontrunner, this will likely be the most lively and expensive primary in the state in 2016.

Representative Anne Zerr

Raised this quarter: $68,969.73

Raised this cycle: $132,519.68

COH: $168,677.78

William Eigel

Raised this quarter: $140,782.84

Raised this cycle: $140,782.84

COH: $135,581.00

Representative Mark Parkinson

Raised this quarter: $3,913.00

Raised this cycle: $54,163.00

COH: $54,206.23

#4. SD 15 OPEN (Schmitt leaving)

The 15th is the most solidly Republican seat left in St. Louis County, and the action will be about the primary, which will feature former Rep. Rick Stream squaring off against Reps. Mike Leara and Andrew Koenig. There is an active tea party contingent in the district and Stream went very far to the center in his race for St. Louis County Executive in 2012 that may give him some grief. Stream’s unexpectedly close bid for County Executive has given him a great deal of name ID and perhaps more importantly, a large database of donors to tap. But in a primary where the voting universe is very small, he could be upset. Now it seems like Leara or Koenig could raise enough money to compete, but if the conservative opposition to Stream is divided, he is the front runner out of the starting gate.

Republicans

Former Representative Rick Stream

Raised this quarter: $1,500.00

Raised this cycle: $1,500.00

COH: $21,647.24

Representative Mike Leara

Raised this quarter: $100.00

Raised this cycle: $39,025.00

COH: $4,200.01

Representative Andrew Koenig

Raised this quarter: $12,530.00

Raised this cycle: $50,116.37

COH: $64,481.31

#5. SD 5 Nasheed (D)

There is literally no opportunity whatsoever for the Republicans to compete in the 5th, but there could be a primary. In fact, Senator Nasheed defeated an incumbent, Senator Robin Wright-Jones in a primary in 2012. SNasheed is allied with the Mayor and his overwhelming political operation, but in a primary there is always possible. Rep. Michael Butler was previously rumored to be interested in running at one point. Look for Nasheed to be re-elected, but it she may have a minor primary opponent along the way.

Senator Jamilah Nasheed (D)

Raised this quarter: $51,750.00

Raised this cycle: $366,097.15

COH: $249,370.83 

#6. SD 3 Romine (R)

This should be a battleground district, but with President Obama in office, the district isn’t as competitive as it could be, and with Romine running for re-election its highly unlikely for a Democrat to become competitive. He will raise a great deal of money and as highly as he is regarded in Jefferson City, he is even more highly regarded in the parkland.

Senator Gary Romine (R)

Raised this quarter: $36,464.00

Raised this cycle: $273,185.90

COH: $112,206.75

 #7. SD 17 Silvey (R)

This is a tough district and there are some divisions inside the Republican Party in Clay County, but it’s highly unlikely that either of those two very big variables impact Senator Silvey’s re-election on his way to serving as budget chair. First of all, he is a tough campaigner, a great fundraiser, and relentlessly personable with his constituents. Secondly, neither labor nor the hospital association would be contributors to an opponent. In fact, they are very likely to support Silvey. It would seem highly unlikely he is completely unopposed, but he will be highly favored. But once Silvey is term-limited look for this seat to be seriously competitive in 2020.

Senator Ryan Silvey (R)

Raised this quarter: $54,140.00

Raised this cycle: $498,304.44

COH: $339,157.92

#8. SD 11 LeVota (D)

Raised this quarter: $11,380.00

Raised this cycle: $174,931.43

COH:$117,296.85

The fact that the 11th is on the list is as much a testament to the success Missouri Republicans have had as anything. The district is significantly Democratic, but would be the Republican’s third best pickup opportunity, and they will have a great deal of money to spend. Unless some rumbling in the media is damaging, this seat is one to watch more by default than anything else.

#9. SD 27 Wallingford (R)

Raised this quarter: $1,800.00

Raised this cycle: $222,047.5

COH:$42,835.24

While the 27th is deep in southeast Missouri and deeply Republican, there were at one time rumblings that Senator Wallingford could have a primary challenge, but it’s unlikely to be much of one if it happens at all. For one, Wallingford proved that no one from outside Cape County can beat a candidate from Cape County, and he is so strong in the surrounding counties that a Cape County challenger would be highly unlikely to put up much of a fight.

#10. SD 21 OPEN (Pearce leaving)

Eight years ago, Senator Pearce fought a tough campaign against Chris Benjamin to replace Chris Koster, who won the seat as a Republican. In 2016, it looks likely that House Speaker Pro Tem Denny Hoskins is about to be crowned the next senator without a fight from the Democrats.

Speaker Pro Tem Denny Hoskins

Raised this quarter: $22,942.55

Raised this cycle: $31,792.55

COH: $64,827.09

Returning Senators in Safe Seats

SD 7 Jason Holsman (D)

Raised this quarter: $0

Raised this cycle: $4,740.00

COH: $103,020.70

SD 9 S. Kiki Curls (D)

*Report not filed by the quarterly deadline.

SD 13 Gina Walsh (D)

Raised this quarter: $25,906.50

Raised this cycle: $142,032.22

COH:$71,884.98

SD 25 Doug Libla (R)

Raised: $70,140.00

Raised this cycle: $277,913.82

COH: $137,510.46

*Libla has a marginal announced Democratic opponent in perennial candidate Bill Burlison.

SD 29 David Sater (R)

Raised this quarter: $600.00

Raised this cycle: $1,100.00

COH: $64,574.36

SD 31 Ed Emery (R)

Raised this quarter: $0.00

Raised this cycle: $61,164.45

COH: $41,273.13

SD 33 Mike Cunningham (R)

Raised: $30,350.00

Raised this cycle: $172,985.00

COH: $118,198.42

Returning Senators

SD 2 Bob Onder (R)

Raised this quarter: $38,261.00

Raised this cycle: $57,018.41

COH: $45,671.09

SD 4 Joseph Keaveny (D)

Raised this quarter: $6,600.00

Raised this cycle: $15,740.00

COH: $141,642.73

SD 6 Mike Kehoe (R)

Raised this quarter: $14,600.00

Raised this cycle: $33,263.86

COH: $59,322.48

SD 8 Will Kraus (R)

Raised this quarter: $62,872.86

Raised this cycle: $347,459.88

COH: $505,748.28

SD 10 Jeanie Riddle (R)

Raised this quarter: $1,500.00

Raised this cycle: $16,452.24

COH: $34,103.69

SD 12 Dan Hegeman (R)

Raised this quarter: $0

Raised this cycle: $0

COH: $41.198.61

SD14 Maria Chappelle-Nadal (D)

Raised this quarter: $6,975.00

Raised this cycle: $16,931.64

COH: $201,744.34

SD 16 Dan Brown (R)

Raised this quarter: $22,950.00

Raised this cycle: $834,348.77

COH: $134,249.11

SD 18 Brian Munzlinger (R)

Raised this quarter: $100

Raised this cycle: $4,112.50

COH: $96,749.83 

SD 20 Jay Wasson (R)

Raised this quarter: $6,500.00

Raised this cycle: $12,500.00

COH: $304,442.74

SD 22 Paul Wieland (R)

Raised this quarter: $31,959.60

Raised this cycle: $73,575.22

COH: $27,177.94

SD 24 Jill Schupp (D)

Raised this quarter: $11,230.00

Raised this cycle: $27,851.32

COH: $20,780.07

SD 26 Dave Schatz (R)

Raised this quarter: $0

Raised this cycle: $4,360.84

COH: $161,808.04

SD 28 Mike Parson (R)

Raised this quarter: $337,871.45

Raised this cycle: $368,901.78

COH: $726,729.72

SD 30 Bob Dixon (R)

Raised this quarter: $1,120.00

Raised this cycle: $76,725.14

COH: $73,492.31

SD 32 Ron Richard (R)

Raised this quarter: $41,405.00

Raised this cycle: $88,755.00

COH: $414,792.19

SD 34 Rob Schaaf (R)

Terminated campaign committee.