HOUSE TIP SHEET: October 2016

  

It has been a wildly unpredictable cycle nationwide and certainly in the Governor’s race. However, it’s been a relatively predictable cycle in House races with Republicans showing dominance in candidate recruitment and fundraising.

The real question when the cycle began was whether or not the Democrats could grow their numbers large enough to uphold a veto. Right now that seems unlikely. As the graphic shows, Republicans’ floor is 95 of the 109 they need. In all actuality, they should win the races leaning toward them to put their floor around 105, just 4 shy.

With that in mind, a couple of the competitive races are trending toward our likely-Republican list in the 65th and the 149th. With Trump leading the ticket they are in the driver’s seat to re-elect Rep. Vescovo in Jefferson County, but even with Trump leading the ticket don’t sleep on Rep. Shaul’s race. Also, you would have to assume the outstanding Greene County organization would help the Republicans win the 135th which would put them at 109.

However, with a couple members such as Reps. Pogue and Marshall, they would enjoy the breathing room that re-electing Reps. Corlew, Kidd, Shaul, and Bayse would provide. If they get higher than 114 it will mean they finally won the 94th in an even year, and some of the open seats.

This week we see several races moving towards the Republicans, most of them reliable seats they weren’t expecting to have problems in. Reps. Spencer and Cornejo as well as fellow St. Charles Countian freshman Phil Christofanelli are among the three races we moved from LEAN R to LIKELY R.

However, on the Democrat side, we moved HD 132 with Crystal Quade and HD 46 with Martha Stevens from LEAN D to LIKELY D. These are two excellent candidates who are putting their races away early.

Rep. Anders is one race we moved from LIKELY D to LEAN D and Rep. Wilson’s is the one race we moved toward to the center to LEAN R mostly because of the hard work their opponents. If the election swings radically to either party their seats could be in play.

It’s conceivable that the Republican caucus could be as large as 117 or 118 with a more friendly Rep. Keith English but a lot would have to go right in a year with a very volatile top of the ticket. It’s more likely that the Democrats pick up a couple seats. Right now we’re projecting the number to be around 115 on election night.

COMPETITIVE – 14

#1 HD 17 (D+4.3) OPEN (King) COMPETITIVE – #1 last tip sheet

After a big win defeating incumbent Nick King in the primary Mary Hill is showing that she is more than a protest candidate. There were some outside of Clay County who assumed that she would be a one issue candidate who would lose the general after defeating King. While that may happen she is showing that she is very capable on the doorstep, and being a nurse is proving to be a good calling card with voters.

Ellebracht is doing all he can do to win the race but is currently being significantly outspent. But as of now, he doesn’t look to be outworked. He has the partisan district makeup advantage but will have to at least come close to narrowing the fundraising gap to win. Either way, this is a very close race that could come down to national and state trends on election day.

(D) Mark Ellebracht

  • • Contributions this period: $6,225.00
  • • Contributions this election: $13,290.00
  • • Cash on hand: $8,721.35

(R) Mary Hill

maryformissouri.com @MaryforMissouri

  • • Contributions this period: $75,000.00
  • • Contributions this election: $135,723.62
  • • Cash on hand: $68,583.30

#2 HD 47 (D+0.07) Basye COMPETITIVE – #2 last tip sheet

This has been a hyper-competitive district since it was drawn after the last census. Rep. Chuck Basye has proven to be a good candidate especially in a district that is larger than just Boone County. However, Susan McClintic is proving to be as good as advertised when House Democrats said she was the top recruit of the cycle. We are accustomed to HRCC coming in and winning the race in the last two weeks. This cycle in Boone County, the Democrats have an organization built around Rep. Stephen Webber’s Senate campaign. In this year with Trump leading the ticket for the Republicans and a coordinated campaign on the ground for the Democrats in Boone County, this race is a toss-up.

(D) Susan McClintic

susanforrep.com @SusanJMcClintic

  • • Contributions this period: $46,875.00
  • • Contributions this election: $139,559.00
  • • Cash on hand: $90,228.08

(R) Rep. Chuck Basye

chuckbasye47.com @ChuckBasye47

  • • Contributions this period: $67,005.00
  • • Contributions this election: $112,612.82
  • • Cash on hand: $103,900.22

#3 HD 14 (D+2.9) Corlew COMPETITIVE – #3 last tip sheet

Rep. Corlew is doing everything right and might have been in a position to not be targeted this cycle except for the fact that he is such a promising political talent and the fact that Martin Rucker is a top flight recruit for the Democrats.

This race may get ugly, and if it does it likely ends up helping Rep. Corlew return. But with the partisan makeup of the district and the fact that Rucker does have enough resources to compete it will remain competitive through Election Day.

(D) Martin Rucker

ruckerformissouri.com @RuckerSouthSide

  • • Contributions this period: $8,370.00
  • • Contributions this election: $46,334.62
  • • Cash on hand: $29,516.01

(R) Rep. Kevin Corlew

kevincorlew.com @KevinCorlew

  • • Contributions this period: $26,996.00
  • • Contributions this election: $163,412.34
  • • Cash on hand: $28,840.92

#4 HD 94 (D+2.5) Brown COMPETITIVE – #7 last tip sheet

This is a race that has moved up the tip sheet as Vicki Englund has done her work fundraising, and there is a natural tightening of races in South county. Many thought this might be the year that the seat didn’t flip with Donald Trump running well in South County, but this race is close and either candidate could win. Look for how Sen. Scott Sifton runs in this district to see how well Englund runs.

(D) Vicki Englund

Vickieenglund.com @venglund

  • • Contributions this period: $30,647.00
  • • Contributions this election: $104,548.15
  • • Cash on hand: $53,602.97

(R) Rep. Cloria Brown

Cloriabrown.com @CloriaBrown

  • • Contributions this period: $60,245.00
  • • Contributions this election: $93,479.73
  • • Cash on hand: $84,735.27

#5 HD 44 (R+0.03) OPEN (Rowden) COMPETITIVE – #5 last tip sheet

Another Boone County race that is a mirror of the 47th with all of the same things at play save for 1) the 44th is slightly more Republican, 2) no incumbent, and 3) Rep. Caleb Rowden will be on the ballot running for state Senate. This is a district where Reisch may have a slight advantage by having no voting record, but it will be razor close until the last two weeks.

(D) Tom Pauley

pauley44.com @PauleyforRep

  • • Contributions this period: $1,430.00
  • • Contributions this election: $15,225.44
  • • Cash on hand: $3,226.00

(R) Cheri Reisch

cheri44.com @CheriMO44

  • • Contributions this period: $4,344.00
  • • Contributions this election: $11,016.00

#6 HD 113 (D+4.8) Shaul COMPETITIVE – #4 last tip sheet

This seat is one that was set up to be turned by the Democrats, and still may except for can the Democrats win a district where Hillary Clinton get obliterated? If you’re looking for a sleeper race for a seat to flip look at the 113th. We will be looking more closely at this race this week, but as of now, the question remains if Settlemoir-Berg can turn back at  a 15 point+ Trump bump into defeating an incumbent.

(D) Karen Settlemoir-Berg

bergforchange.com

  • • Contributions this period: $6,260.00
  • • Contributions this election: $51,644.79
  • • Cash on hand: $31,494.66

(R) Rep. Dan Shaul

Voteshaul.com @danshaul113

  • • Contributions this period: $57,625.00
  • • Contributions this election: $110,510.00
  • • Cash on hand: $72,449.45

#7 HD 20 (D+5.8) Kidd COMPETITIVE – #14 last tip sheet

There is no reason that Rep. Bill Kidd’s race should have moved up since our last sheet except for the fact that his district is simply a very Democratic district. Labor has been very loyal to Kidd, and Mike Englert hasn’t run particularly strong campaign thus far, but it may be the case that the race never sees much separation. All of the normal metrics lead one to believe Rep. Kidd wins re-election but his margin of victory may just be smaller than you might expect because of the partisan advantage Democrats hold in the district.

(D) Mike Englert

  • • Contributions this period: $1,640.00
  • • Contributions this election: $2,355.00
  • • Cash on hand: $1,640.00

(R) Rep. Bill Kidd

billkiddformissouri.com @BillKiddforMO

  • • Contributions this period: $31,650.00
  • • Contributions this election: $172,265.97
  • • Cash on hand: $86,475.77

#8 HD 135 (R+1.9) OPEN (Hough) COMPETITIVE – #12 last tip sheet

Steve Helms is running a very strong campaign, and normal campaign metrics show that he likely wins the district, but Randy Alberhasky is running a great race himself. Many people see southwest Missouri and assume the race is a cinch, but Rep. Lincoln Hough was a very strong candidate who was a tremendous fundraiser to win and hold the seat. Helms has the advantage but Alberhasky has made this race closer than some expected.  

(D) Randy Alberhasky

randyalberhasky.com @RandyAlberhasky

  • • Contributions this period: $5,917.69
  • • Contributions this election: $34,545.37
  • • Cash on hand: $21,924.90

(R) Steve Helms

stevehelms.net

  • • Contributions this period: $61,550.00
  • • Contributions this election: $77,253.76
  • • Cash on hand: $72,822.50

#9 HD 68 (D+15.9) English COMPETITIVE – #9 last tip sheet

You want to see a crazy race? Look at the 68th.Jay  Mosley runs a great campaign that benefits from Rep. Rochelle Walton-Gray winning the biggest upset of primary night defeating County Councilman Michael O’Meara. Rep. Keith English wasn’t running, Mosely defeats former Rep. Bert Atkins in the primary, and English then decides to run as an independent.

No one knows what will happen here. You have a normal ground game of machine politics against one of the most colorful personalities in state politics. The first tell will be how much money English can compile. This is the wildest race in the state.

(D) Jay Mosley

  • • Contributions this period: $0.00
  • • Contributions this election: $0.00
  • • Cash on hand: $474.17

(I) Rep. Keith English

@keithenglishmo

  • Contributions this period: $14,850.00
  • Contributions this election:$65,450.00
  • Cash on hand:$42,721.04

#10 HD 117 (D+4.7) OPEN (Black) COMPETITIVE – #10 last tip sheet

This race will be very interesting as the Republicans have never won this district, but it is the last remaining seat in the 8th Congressional District that can be said about. Rep. Linda Black switched parties following the 2014 election, and there will be a competitive race to replace her.

Travis Barnes is an ironworker and the head of the labor club. North St. Francois County is a competitive area, and he has convinced both the party and union leaders that he is a serious candidate. Mike Henderson is an assistant school superintendent with North St. Francois County Schools and is campaigning with the assistance of Rep. Kevin Engler. The race will be close but with both candidates being pro-labor, Henderson may have a marginal lead out of the gate.

(D) Travis Barnes

@BarnesForMO

  • • Contributions this period: $9,350.25
  • • Contributions this election: $22,249.47
  • • Cash on hand: $15,473.40

(R) Mike Henderson

  • • Contributions this period: $9,625.00
  • • Contributions this election: $21,167.00
  • • Cash on hand: $1,554.45

#11 HD  (R+0.06) Lavender COMPETITIVE – #6 last tip sheet

This race is being held competitive on the strength of Rep. Deb Lavender’s challenger attorney Mark Milton. Where most competitive places on the map are Trump strongholds Kirkwood is the place where he does not run as strong as a typical Republican. Rep. Lavender has the advantage of having run in the district for a decade, but Milton has the commitment of several top state Republicans. This race will stay competitive, but look for some media to watch on both sides.  

(D) Rep. Deb Lavender

lavenderforstaterep.com @DebLavender

  • • Contributions this period: $10,477.00
  • • Contributions this election: $149,067.77
  • • Cash on hand: $109,925.42

(R) Mark Milton

markmiltonmo.com @MarkMiltonMO

  • • Contributions this period: $2,815.00
  • • Contributions this election: $82,452.25
  • • Cash on hand: $42,646.19

#12 HD 149 Rone (D+3.5) COMPETITIVE – #13 last tip sheet

This race moved up more because of other races bumping it than it becoming more competitive. This is a Democratic seat being held by a very popular Republican farmer in Rep. Don Rone. Look for that to continue with a big, big Trump wave in Southeast Missouri giving cover in a race that something is going to have to change to make it more competitive than #12.

(D) Brantley Atchley

atchley4semo.com @Brantley Atchley

  • • Contributions this period: $14,250.00
  • • Contributions this election: $28,709.01
  • • Cash on hand: $15,264.29

(R) Rep. Don Rone

@rone_don

  • • Contributions this period: $9,895.00
  • • Contributions this election: $28,173.16
  • • Cash on hand: $28,416.34

#13 HD 112 (D+2.2) Vescovo COMPETITIVE – #12 last tip sheet

Bob Butler had an interesting card to play with the lawsuit over Rep. Rob Vescovo owing back taxes, but after that was settled, Vescovo may be riding a major fundraising advantage thanks to David Humphreys and a big Trump wave building in Jefferson County. There may be a question if labor wants to really pony up big money to take out one of their most obnoxious antagonist in a district that is home to many labor households, or do they put their resources in other races. The next week will tell the tale.

(D) Bob Butler

butlerforthehouse.com

  • • Contributions this period: $10,202.00
  • • Contributions this election: $80,551.13
  • • Cash on hand: $29,776.28

(R) Rep. Rob Vescovo

robvescovo.com @RobVescovo

  • • Contributions this period: $60,000.00
  • • Contributions this election: $312,819.76
  • • Cash on hand: $71,463.60

#14 HD 70 (D+0.07) OPEN (Otto) COMPETITIVE – unranked

This is a race is more of an indicator of the shrinking playing map and a lot of resources HRCC has in the bank. This a competitive district but a race the Democrats should win. Having Rep. Bill Otto on the ballot running for Congress would help, but the Republicans are showing more interest in the 70th.

(D) Byron DeLear

byrondelear.org @ByronDeLear

  • • Contributions this period: $14,775.00
  • • Contributions this election: $112,342.00
  • • Cash on hand: $66,121.80

(R) Mark Matthiesen

markmatthiesen.org

  • • Contributions this period: $52,350.00
  • • Contributions this election: $57,240.00
  • • Cash on hand: $52,469.22

#15 HD 65 (D+0.03) OPEN (Zerr) COMPETITIVE – #11 last tip sheet

This race is slipping down the list and many feel that the Democrats could be missing an opportunity in a competitive district. It could be just a limiting of resources, but Hannegan seems to be creating enough separation that former Rep. Kenny Biermann will have to do something to change the tide or this race will become a LIKELY REPUBLICAN seat on our list.

(D) Kenny Biermann

  • • Contributions this period: $1,800.00
  • • Contributions this election: $15,235.00
  • • Cash on hand: $7,890.61

(R) Tom Hannegan

tomhannegan.com @TomHannegan

  • • Contributions this period: $2,050.00
  • • Contributions this election: $61,655.61
  • • Cash on hand: $2,967.06

#16 HD 91 (D+4.2) OPEN (Kirkton) COMPETITIVE – unranked

We’ve been telling you about this race all cycle, but Republicans have been thrilled about their candidate Greg Mueller. Look for them to dedicate resources to this district that really should be out of reach. Unsicker should see some significant help in the next couple weeks that should help her seal the deal, but this has been the Republicans’ sleeper candidate all cycle. Now, let’s see how much money they put behind him.

(D) Sarah Unsicker

unsickerformissouri.com @SarahUnsicker

  • • Contributions this period: $5,395.00
  • • Contributions this election: $52,087.92
  • • Cash on hand: $32,169.71

(R) Greg Mueller

electgregmueller.com

  • • Contributions this period: $15,535.00
  • • Contributions this election: $61,551.64
  • • Cash on hand: $52,613.46