2018 Tip Sheet: Senate

Senate Races

Open Seats – Incumbents elected in 2010

SD 6 (Kehoe) R+12.5

With Sen. Mike Kehoe term limited, a potential primary fight could develop between Reps. Mike Bernskoetter and Jay Barnes. It would be an epic primary, but as of today, it seems more likely that they do not run against each other. However, if they do, look for Barnes to not only close the gap, but surpass Bernskoetter in fundraising, even though Bernskoetter will be able to get to Barnes’ right on the issues.

Rep. Jay Barnes
Raised this cycle: $1,750.00
Cash on hand: $33,937.78

Rep. Mike Bernskoetter
Raised this cycle: $500.00
Cash on hand: $84,026.88

SD 8 (Kraus) R+3.8

This district will be a test of the Republicans’ ability to avoid primary fights. House Floor Leader Mike Cierpiot is the clear frontrunner and likely winner, but the question is whether or not he will have a primary challenger, and if so, how many will he have. Rep. Gary Cross has discussed running. Former Rep. Sheila Solon previously discussed running, and still has a sizable war chest, but she has moved out of the district after her husband got a job elsewhere. Some mention Jacob Turk, as he mounted his best congressional campaign yet and got ever closer to Congressman Emmanuel Cleaver in 2016. In an off-year under President Trump, this might be his chance to reach his long sought after dream of being elected to Congress.

House Majority Floor Leader Rep. Mike Cierpiot
Raised this cycle: $0.00
Cash on hand: $152,322.94

Rep. Gary Cross
Raised this cycle: $790.00
Cash on hand$: 23,466.35

SD 14 (Nadal) D+18.9

Rep. Joe Adams was the mayor of University City for years, has been in politics for decades, and ran for this Senate seat eight years ago. He likely starts as the favorite. Former. Rep. Sharon Pace will also be a formidable candidate. A big question may be if the incumbent senator chooses to endorse a successor and spend a portion of her large war chest on the race. As was the case eight years ago, there are likely to be multiple factions and several candidates involved in the race before the end of the primary. As we start off, Adams is the one to beat.

Rep. Joe Adams
Raised this cycle: $1,650.00
Cash on hand: $37,154.49

Former Rep. Sharon Pace
Raised this cycle: $2,375.00
Cash on hand: $27,450.63

SD 16 (Brown) R+11.2

This race could break down by geography. Sen. Dan Brown’s son, Justin, is likely the wild card. He will be able to raise a great deal of money and the fact that his father is the senate budget chair won’t hurt. If filing closes and he is the only candidate from Rolla, then he will be the favorite. If two candidates from Rolla file, then Rep. Diane Franklin has a real chance to win with her base on the western side of the district over at the Lake of the Ozarks. That probably makes Rep. Keith Frederick the other wild card. He will be able to raise money and is very conservative. If he runs, then this race becomes one of the top races in the state. On the Democratic side, Ryan Dillon has hit the race with a lot of energy and may be someone to keep an eye on in the future if he shows well in his longshot bid in a highly Republican district.

(R) Rep. Diane Franklin
Raised this cycle: $250.00
Cash on hand: $10,987.54

(R) Rep. Keith Frederick
Raised this cycle: $2,500.00
Cash on hand: $18,609.62

(R) Justin Brown
Raised this cycle: $1,195.00
Cash on hand: $204,862.83

(D) Ryan Dillion
Raised this cycle: $15,090.00
Cash on hand: $21,199.35

SD 18 (Munzlinger) R+5.6

A fun primary may be building between Reps. Craig Redmon and Nate Walker. Both are conservatives who are articulate and can raise money as well as being proven vote getters. This primary will produce the next senator and look for this to be one of the top races of the summer of 2018. Some early momentum may be who earns the support of Aaron Baker and Pat Thomas and if the agriculture groups get involved in the primary.

Rep. Craig Redmon
Raised this cycle: $3,550.00
Cash on hand: $33,045.41

Rep. Nate Walker
Raised this cycle: $1,500.00
Cash on hand: $2,225.67

SD 20 (Wasson) R+16.1

This race will be the hottest primary of the cycle if former representative and current Greene County Commissioner Lincoln Hough chooses to run. Former Rep. Eric Burlison is definitely running and might be able to claim some support from large donors around the state while Hough is probably the best fundraiser in the entire Springfield area. If both run, be on the lookout for a Christian County candidate as Hough and Burlison are Greene County candidates running for a traditionally Christian County seat.

Former Rep. Lincoln Hough
Raised this cycle: $0.00
Cash on hand: $158,758.35

Former Rep. Eric Burlison
Raised this cycle: $77,173.28
Cash on hand: $264,609.92

SD 30 (Dixon) R+4.6

It appears that Rep. Kevin Austin will have a clear path to the Senate – as of now, he has no primary challengers. Rep. Crystal Quade could offer the Democrats an opportunity in the 30th, but she seems to be intent on serving out her time in the House and waiting to see what redistricting does to one of the fastest growing areas in the state. For 2018, it looks like former Rep. Charlie Norr will be the Democrats’ standard bearer.

(R) Rep. Kevin Austin
Raised this cycle: $1,400.00
Cash on hand: $8,495.38

(D) Former Rep. Charlie Norr
Raised this cycle: $0.00
Cash on hand: $80.17

SD 32 (Richard) R+19.5

Rep. Charlie Davis is definitely running to replace Sen. Ron Richard, as is Rep. Bill White, who tells the Missouri Times that he intends to announce his bid in May. This race would be a very competitive primary if both sought the job. Odds are they find a way to work this out and Rep. Davis is Sen. Davis in two years.

Rep. Charlie Davis
Raised this cycle: $0.00
Cash on hand: $6,587.75

Rep. Bill White
Raised this cycle: $0.00
Cash on hand: $42,908.46

SD 34 (Schaaf) R+0.8

Just as it was eight years ago, the 34th will have a wild primary and an interesting general election. On the Republican side, Rep. Galen Higdon is running, as is the mercurial Rep. Nick Marshall, who does have a path to funding a top campaign capable of winning a multi-candidate primary. The current Buchanan County Presiding Commissioner Harry Roberts seems intent on running, and there is another Republican who has never held public office waiting in the wings to run who may have the most significant backing in the race. Rep. Kevin Corlew would be a top contender as the majority of his House district is in the 34th, but he would have to move in order to run, which he has shown little interest in doing.

On the Democratic side, Rep. Pat Conway would be a top candidate if he ran not only to win the primary but in the general as well. Also, don’t forget former Mizzou standout Martin Rucker, who ran unsuccessfully in 2016 but would likely find the St. Joseph centered State Senate seat more favorable ground than the seat he previously ran for.

(R) Rep. Galen Higdon
Raised this cycle: $0.00
Cash on hand: $765.44

(R) Rep. Nick Marshall
Raised this cycle: $917.82
Cash on hand: $19,980.23

(R) Buchanan County Commissioner Harry Roberts
Raised this cycle: $0.00
Cash on hand: $11,490.42

(D) Martin Rucker
Raised this cycle: $4,194.44
Cash on hand: $2,476.46

(D) Rep. Pat Conway
Raised this cycle: $0.00
Cash on hand: $28,929.68

Elected in 2014

SD 2 (Onder) R+6.9

Sen. Bob Onder currently has no serious announced opposition.

Sen. Bob Onder
Raised this cycle:$7,017.02
Cash on hand: $219,508.65

SD 4 (Hummel) D+24.5

Sen. Jake Hummel currently has no serious announced opposition.

Sen. Jake Hummel
Raised this cycle: $0.00
Cash on hand: $35,228.16

SD 10 (Riddle) R+4.7

Sen. Jeanie Riddle currently has no serious announced opposition.

Sen. Jeanie Riddle
Raised this cycle: $4,000.00
Cash on hand: $95,636.70

SD 12 (Hegeman) R+8.4

Sen. Dave Hegeman currently has no serious announced opposition.

Sen. Dave Hageman
Raised this cycle: $0.00
Cash on hand: $71,622.22

SD 22 (Wieland) D+1.2

This race will come down to whether or not Sen. Paul Wieland has a primary challenger. The name most mentioned as considering the challenge is Rep. Rob Vescovo, but he hasn’t stated an intent as of mid-session. Vescovo can raise money, but under the new laws would likely have to rely on the shady 501(c) world for help. The Governor also might become interested in the race. If Wieland is challenged in the primary then the Democrats could have a chance at a pickup of a traditionally Democratic seat. The question for the Democrats would be who? The Trump wave wiped out what was left of Jefferson County Democrats even down to the county level. If Wieland has no primary challenger, then he is a safe bet for re-election with Right-to-Work on the ballot.

Sen. Paul Wieland
Raised this cycle: $5,296.35
Cash on hand: $90,225.06

Rep. Rob Vescovo
Raised this cycle: $100,000.00
Cash on hand: $89,370.38

SD 24 (Schupp) D+3.7

The 24th was hard fought in the crazy 2014 environment and is likely to be again in 2018 but the question is who will fight it for the Republicans. Sen. Jill Schupp will be stronger in a re-election bid. Many will first look to Jack Spooner, but he hasn’t yet expressed interest. Freshman Rep. Mark Matthiesen seems more likely to run for re-election and with no other top-tier challengers as of yet, this race hasn’t developed. You get the sense that the Republicans would prefer someone with no record to defend in this suburban St. Louis County district.

Senator Jill Schupp
Raised this cycle: $56,790.00
Cash on hand: $169,129.02

SD 26 (Schatz) R+9.8

Sen. Dave Schatz currently has no serious announced opposition.

Senator Dave Schatz
Raised this cycle: $12,450.00
Cash on hand: $203,448.52

SD 28 (VACANT/Parson) R+11.8

Rep. Sandy Crawford is highly likely to be elected in August to fill the remaining year on Lt. Governor Parson’s term. She will unlikely have serious opposition for re-election in 2018.

Rep. Sandy Crawford
Raised this cycle: $1,400.00
Cash on hand: $82,706.18

Re-elected in 2016 – (term limited in 2020)

SD 1 (Sifton) D+5.1

One of the most competitive seats in the Senate will likely see another big battle when Sen. Scott Sifton is term limited in 2020. Will there be another South County Democrat savvy enough to be filmed with police in every campaign commercial? Rep. Marsha Haefner originally announced for the seat in 2016 before Sifton announced he was running for re-election and would likely be a frontrunner in 2020. The very respected Rep. Bob Burns would be a top Democratic contender, but watch for freshman Rep. Doug Beck to make a name for himself over the next four years and position himself to run.

Sen. Scott Sifton
Raised this cycle: $28,665.01
Cash on hand: $140,717.09

Rep. Marsha Haefner
Raised this cycle: $250.00
Cash on hand: $14,698.19

Rep. Bob Burns
Raised this cycle: $1,400.00
Cash on hand: $3,311.64

SD 3 (Romine) D+2.4

This is a seat that Democrats must win to get back to a competitive balance in the senate. As of now, the Republicans do not have a leading candidate but their nominee and therefore the frontrunner for the seat is likely to be from St. Francois County. Out of the gate, Rep. Mike Henderson has been impressive in the House and his predecessor, former Rep. Linda Black, would be a sound candidate. The leading Democrat who represents the district is Rep. Ben Harris who consistently beats the odds as a rural Democrat.

Sen. Gary Romine
Raised this cycle: $75.00
Cash on hand: $120,965.03

(R) Rep. Mike Henderson
Raised this cycle: $600.00
Cash on hand: $2,758.18

(R) Former Rep. Linda Black (no active committee)
Raised this cycle: $0.00
Cash on hand: $2,825.21

(D) Rep. Ben Harris
Raised this cycle: $0.00
Cash on hand: $16,005.25

SD 5 (Nasheed) D+39.9

Sen. Jamilah Nasheed will indeed be a tough act to follow, but following her may come sooner than 2020 if she seeks the presidency of the Board of Aldermen in St. Louis. These committee elections are always a screwy process, and unless the Legislature gets rid of them, they will pick her successor. If not, then currently two of the highest profile representatives are Rep. Josh Peters and Rep. Michael Butler. If they both ran it would be a contest between two very talented politicians and a future St. Louis leader would emerge from the race. Of note is that Congressman Lacy Clay hasn’t been shy about assisting Peters, his former staff member, in previous primaries.

Sen. Jamilah Nasheed
Raised this cycle: $0.00
Cash on hand: $275,838.75

Rep. Josh Peters
Raised this cycle: $250.00
Cash on hand: $1,747.05

Rep. Michael Butler
Raised this cycle: $0.00
Cash on hand: $5,846.23

SD 7 (Holsman) D+20.8

This district is always contested in the primary and often produces some of the best Democratic talent in the state. Rep. Greg Razer was just elected but seems to be tabbed for big things. He seems a likely frontrunner should he seek this seat or should Sen. Jason Holsman run for city council or lieutenant governor.

Sen. Jason Holsman
Raised this cycle: $0.00
Cash on hand: $102,220.38

Rep. Greg Razer
Raised this cycle: $325.00
Cash on hand: $17,827.65

SD 9 (Curls) D+33.9

This district is likely to have several primary candidates before filing closes but the two most likely to run are current House Minority Leader Gail McCann Beatty and Rep. Brandon Ellington. Oftentimes, Kansas City candidates choose to run for city council instead of staying in the General Assembly, but this will be an interesting race to watch as candidates come forward and see who can raise the money to compete.

Rep. Gail McCann Beatty
Raised this cycle: $5,800.00
Cash on hand: $16,212.34

Rep. Brandon Ellington
Raised this cycle: $0.00
Cash on hand: $6,079.89

SD 13 (Walsh) D+27.5

It’s far too early to predict, but of the representatives in the 13th, Rep. Cora Faith Walker and Rep. Jay Mosley seem to be top contenders for a seat that has long been held by Democratic heavyweights.

Senator Gina Walsh
Raised this cycle: $1,050.00
Cash on hand: $87,760.03

Rep. Cora Faith Walker
(Has not submitted April quarterly report)

Rep. Jay Mosley
(Has not submitted April quarterly report)

SD 17 (Silvey) R+0.8

This is maybe the most competitive district in the state, and Sen. Ryan Silvey is perhaps the only type of Republican who could hold it. Both parties have capable representatives in the district who could choose to battle it out in primaries, but as of now, it appears that the front runners are Corlew and Rep. Jon Carpenter. If these two talented representatives avoid primaries, it will be the most competitive general election in the Senate in 2020.

Sen. Ryan Silvey
Raised this cycle: $0.00
Cash on hand: $6,883.72

Rep. Kevin Corlew
Raised this cycle: $2,301.91
Cash on hand: $1,223.58

Rep. Jon Carpenter
Raised this cycle: $10,115.93
Cash on hand: $71,317.43

SD 25 (Libla) R+11.4

This race could be the most contentious Republican primary the Bootheel has ever seen. Odds are that they work it out, but if they don’t, it will be a dogfight. The biggest number of primary votes are in Butler County, but if you combine Dunklin and Stoddard County Republicans they are an equally sizable bloc. Bootheel Republicans most always work these things out, and you assume they will again in this case. Also look for Sen. Doug Libla to weigh in, and if he does, bet on that candidate to succeed him.

Sen. Doug Libla
Raised this cycle: $1,000.00
Cash on hand: $230,884.94

Rep. Tila Hubrecht
Raised this cycle: $150.00
Cash on hand: $3,917.41

Rep. Andrew McDaniel
Raised this cycle: $0.00
Cash on hand: $15,871.65

Stoddard Co. Prosecutor Russ Oliver
Raised this cycle: n/a
Cash on hand: n/a

Rep. Steve Cookson
Raised this cycle: $0.00
Cash on hand: $6,938.23

SD 27 (Wallingford) R+16.4

Sen. Wayne Wallingford won a race that pitted a Cape County candidate against a Scott County candidate, which appears to be happening again. However, Rep. Holly Rehder from Scott County is a highly skilled politician and would make for a more formidable challenger. Rep. Kathy Swan is from Cape Girardeau County, the largest county in the district and probably needs to make sure she is the only candidate from there to remain the frontrunner. Interesting to note that the highly popular Cape County Sheriff has long been rumored to be interested in running, and the prosecuting attorney in Cape County is a Limbaugh.

Sen. Wayne Wallingford
Raised this cycle: $1,500.00
Cash on hand: $92,382.36

Rep. Kathy Swan
Raised this cycle: $750.00
Cash on hand: $52,623.07

Rep. Holly Rehder
Raised this cycle: $6,460.85
Cash on hand: $170,165.67

SD 29 (Sater) R+19.9

When Sen. David Sater is term limited, the far and away favorite will be the current House Budget Chair Rep. Fitzpatrick.

Sen. David Sater
Raised this cycle: $0.00
Cash on hand: $168,124.66

Rep. Scott Fitzpatrick
Raised this cycle: $25,751.00
Cash on hand: $97,346.69

SD 31 (Emery) R+6.2

It’s still very early and the field will likely evolve with new candidates, but if you look to 2020, Rep. Jack Bondon out of Cass County seems like a name to watch when Sen. Ed Emery is term limited.

Sen. Ed Emery
Raised this cycle: $10.00
Cash on hand: $44,309.44

Rep. Jack Bondon
Raised this cycle: $0.00
Cash on hand: $43,739.81

SD 33 (Cunningham) R+15.7

The race to replace Sen. Mike Cunningham could break down very similar to the one he won 8 years ago with three candidates from the three geographic centers of the district. By 2020, Rep. Lyndall Fraker will have been term limited while Reps. Shawn Rhoads and Robert Ross will still be in office and powerful committee chairmen. However, that was the case eight years ago when Cunningham won the race from Fraker’s part of the district. If all three run, it will be close again.