The cycle in the Missouri Senate begins with a 24-10 Republican majority. Of the 17 returning senators, there are 10 returning republican incumbents: Senators Bean, Brattin, Burger, Gregory 15, Gregory 21, Henderson, Hudson, Moon, Nicola, Schnelting, and 7 returning incumbent democrats: Senators Beck, Lewis, Mosley, Nurrenbern, Roberts, Washington, and Webber.
Republicans are almost certain to hold SD 2, SD6, SD10, SD12, SD16, SD28, SD20, SD22, SD26, SD28, SD32, and SD34. While democrats are just as certain to hold SD4, SD14, and SD24. After those predictable outcomes, the map will stand at 22-10.
SD8 and SD30 are the competitive races that, at this point, go either way, so as of the July reports, things stand at 22-10-2.
Here is the race-by-race breakdown ranked by the most competitive primary elections.
#1 SD 22 Senator Mary Elizabeth Coleman is not seeking re-election.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: TOSS UP
The race to replace Senator Coleman in north JeffCo will be the top primary in the state. That is, if the business community ponies up the money to support their candidate.
First things first, the field has to narrow. Because of former Rep. Jim Avery’s dedicated fundraising base, I think the more candidates that stay in, the better for Avery. The more credible candidates in the race, the lower the odds for the rest of the field.
Let’s start with Rep. David Casteel. He is a businessman with a lot of connections in both the business and political communities. His story is pure Jeff. Co and he knows how to talk on his own. He is from High Ridge, and while I suspect that Avery will run strong in Arnold, where they are now just an extension of South County, I think Casteel will do well in the southern end, that is, still real JeffCo. He has Axiom and Barklage on his team.
That is, unless Rep. Ken Waller runs. Ken is the former County Executive, who, of course, covered all of SD22. He has a close relationship with labor, combined with that county-wide name ID. Ken might have the highest floor of any candidate should he run. The question will be what his ceiling is.
Rep. Renee Reuter has announced she is running and will be a formidable candidate, and has some name ID in the county. She will have to up her fundraising game to be competitive in the hottest primary in the state.
Then there is former Rep. Jim Avery, who guarantees to make this race fun to cover. He represented the south county, which I assume will be used against him. However, a lot of JeffCo and especially Arnold are St. Louis transplants, so I’m not sure how well that line of attack will play north of Herky. Avery is fun with a personality that will connect with JeffCo. He also has a clearly defined and motivated donor base in the trial attorneys. Avery is close to former Senator Bill Eigel and has his campaign manager, Sophie Shore, in the race.
Rep. David Casteel
Cash on Hand: $127,315.16
Casteel PAC
Cash on Hand: $5,354.26
Candidate Loans: $100,000.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $132,669.42
Rep. Renee Reuter
Cash on Hand: $2,918.59
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $2,918.59
Rep. Ken Waller
Cash on Hand: $44,483.36
Building JeffCo Together
Cash on Hand: $8,238.41
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $52,721.77
Fmr. Rep. Jim Avery
Cash on Hand: $276,013.13
Candidate Loans: $200,050.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $276,013.13
#2 SD 34 Senator Tony Luetkemeyer is term-limited.
GENERAL: LIKELY REPUBLICAN
This race went from pretty boring to #2 on the list when Rep. Brenda Shields decided to jump in against Kansas City Councilman Nathan Willett. While Rep. Sean Pouche is also mulling a bid.
Shields from the northern portion of the district with an amazing name ID and many big donors who would be all in for her. She has her reputation, but it doesn’t hurt that she is the wife of former Senator Charlie Shields. On the other hand, she will have to make the case that she can do better than Harry Roberts did in ‘18 against a Platte County candidate in the eventual winner, Tony Luetkemeyer. Barklage will be in the race, and he has a history of electing Shields in the area.
Her opponent will be the very talented Councilman Willett from the southern portion of the district. The split on the district is Buchanan 46% to Platte 54% favoring Willett out of the gates. He has a tremendous connection to Governor Kehoe and Axiom, working on their home turf. This will be a barn burner.
The primary will likely be more interesting than the general, but there is a chance that a Democrat could compete. The southern portion of the district is trending away from the GOP, while the northern, historically Democratic portion of the district is trending stronger Republican every cycle. It’s hard to see anyone being a better candidate than Martin Rucker in ‘18. However, the dream democrat would be House Minority Leader Ashley Aune, but I don’t see her making this race…this cycle.
Rep. Brenda Shields
Cash on Hand: $94,831.97
Lewis and Clark Leadership PAC
Cash on Hand: $17,409.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $112,240.97
Rep. Sean Pouche
Cash on Hand: $21,213.95
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $21,213.95
Kansas City Councilman Nathan Willett
Cash on Hand: $38,462.93
NextGen North PAC
Cash on Hand: $34,873.24
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $73,336.17
#3 SD 16 Senator Justin Brown is term-limited.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: TOSS UP
The race will be a donnybrook with candidates from all across the district vying for the Senate seat. Starting left to right, Rep. Jeff Knight from Laclede County has the best fundraising pedigree of the field and hails from Laclede County with 28% of the vote. The question will be, does he want to run? He has many irons in the fire and a tough decision to make. His decision will shape the race more than anyone else. The longer he waits, the more likely it seems that he will not run in ‘26.
Former Rep. Hannah Kelly is reportedly in the race from Wright County, who starts with 14.3% of the vote and may have a head start on a Missouri Right to Life endorsement. There is a path for her to secure that endorsement, win Wright County handily, and come in second in several counties and win the thing. She has the right guy on her team in Elijah Haahr to help her do it.
Pulaski County has more people than primary voters because of the military base, and has two candidates in the race. Rep. Don Mayhew, who has a proven track record of winning elections and could potentially self-fund a portion of the race. He is working as hard as anyone and could self-fund. The question is, would he self-fund?
Rep. Bill Hardwick’s military record and name ID make him a top contender. He has a strong record of raising money, and if he puts together enough money to tell the folks in SD16 about his war record, he could be the one who benefits most if Rep. Knight forgoes a run. He has Sophie Shore on his team, and he did very well at the MATA conference last week.
Joe Steelman starts off the race with a stellar last name and is the only candidate from the Phelps/Dent area of the district, which makes up over a third of the district. He is a first-time candidate, but it’s in his blood. If he remains the only candidate from Phelps/Dent and puts together a quick $100,000, then he would probably attain front-runner status.
In the end, if Rep. Knight is in the race, that is to Steelman’s advantage, and the winner can probably make it across the finish line with 8,000-9,000 votes. He has retained Axiom and is working with Barklage as well. If Rep. Knight is not in the race, then the winner will need to top 10,000 votes, and those 7,000 votes in Laclede County will be a prize to whoever raises the most money to chase them.
Joseph Steelman
Cash on Hand: $48,604.65
Steel Resolve PAC
Cash on Hand: $0.00
Candidate Loans: $10,000.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $48,604.65
Rep. Bill Hardwick
Cash on Hand: $168,440.59
Missouri Enterprise Fund
Cash on Hand: $49,799.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $218,239.59
Rep. Don Mayhew
Cash on Hand: $37,346.36
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $37,346.36
Rep. Hannah Kelley
Cash on Hand: $47,444.41
Accountability PAC
Cash on Hand: $5,994.17
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $53,438.58
Rep. Jeff Knight
Cash on Hand: $62,489.86
JAK PAC
Cash on Hand:$36,801.13
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $99,290.99
#4 SD 4 Sen. Karla May is term-limited.
GENERAL: SAFE DEMOCRAT PRIMARY: TOSS UP
The race to replace Senator May will be the typically spirited one, like it is every year the seat is open. As of now, Rep. Steve Butz has come out with a lot of momentum and a big event. He will undoubtedly put together the money to be a force in the race from South City.
Former Rep. Peter Merideth is still mulling a run, and if he jumps into the race, he will be a major factor and probably detrimental to Rep. Butz.
Former Rep. Gina Mitten is also running, and as a woman and veteran legislator, would be a top-tier contender.
Blaine Folsom is the legislative assistant to Rep. Bosley, has opened a campaign account to run, though it has recently been terminated, so he may have decided to bow out. Many are encouraging former Rep. and current member of Senator May’s staff, Wiley Price, to consider running.
Blaine Folsom (Committee Terminated)
Cash on Hand: $ N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $ N/A
Peter Merideth
Cash on Hand: $22,017.65
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $22,017.65
Rep. Steve Butz
Cash on Hand: $133,025.24
Butz STL PAC
Cash on Hand: $41,236.81
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $174,262.05
Gina Mitten
Cash on Hand: $57,411.46
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $57,411.46
Michele Kratky
Cash on Hand: $1,151.59
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $1,151.59
#5 SD 14 Sen. Brian Williams is term-limited.
GENERAL: SAFE DEMOCRAT PRIMARY: LEAN PROUDIE
The race to replace the most talented Democrat in the state will be a hot one, just as it was eight years ago. Rep. Raychel Proudie is officially in the race and is probably starting as the front-runner. Her name ID from running her House campaigns and her fundraising contacts give her a head start.
There is also a very competitive potential field with Joe Palm, who has worked in the White House on his resume and has all the ability to be a top-flight contender. Shaunte Duncan, an ally of Senator Roberts, is also running. She has the potential to also make this a very, very competitive field. Lastly, it wouldn’t shock me if former Rep. and all-around stud John Bowman jumped in.
Joe Palm
Cash on Hand: $0.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $0.00
Shaunte Duncan
Cash on Hand: $11,699.75
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $11,699.75
Rep. Raychel Proudie
Cash on Hand: $22,864.96
PROUD PAC
Cash on Hand: N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $22,864.96
#6 SD 28 Senator Sandy Crawford is term-limited.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: LIKELY POLLITT
Rep. Brad Pollitt starts this race as the considerable frontrunner. The former superintendent of Sedalia schools and a cattle farmer, he has an extensive personal network around the district and the name ID from two high-profile jobs. With 16.9% of the vote coming out of Pettis, 14.9% out of Henry, and 11.2% in Benton, Pollitt starts the race with a high name ID in 43% of SD28. With that portion being in the much more expensive Kansas City media market is a huge advantage in the race. He has Axiom and James Harris running things for him.
His opponent will be Dr. Sam Alexander. He is a physician who lives in Cedar County but works in Springfield. He ran for Congress with Billy Long retired and didn’t put out much of a campaign, but some say he could self-fund an effort. That effort will be run by Sophie Shore.
Unless there is another candidate from the northern end of the district, Rep. Pollitt begins the race as the front-runner.
Rep. Brad Pollitt
Cash on Hand: $85,168.89
Rocker P Brand PAC
Cash on Hand: $34,192.85
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $119,361.74
Dr. Sam Alexander
Cash on Hand: $186,183.11
Candidate Loans: $121,000.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $186,183.11
#7 SD 6 Senator Mike Bernskoetter is term-limited.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: TOSS UP
This has historically been a Cole County seat for decades. However, there is a new wrinkle in the maps in that Cole and Moniteau only represent 53.3% of the district. The last time it wasn’t represented by a Cole Countian was when Larry Rohbach took the race when the Cole County vote was split among several of their own.
Competing for those votes are Rep. Rudy Veit, Jefferson City Councilman Derrick Spicer, and former Army Ranger Jake Vogel. Rep. Veit will have the advantage of a larger area that he has represented than Spicer, and he has the ability to finance his own race if he chooses. He has Jon Ratliff in his race.
While Spicer is holding his own in fundraising and has a cast of celebrity friends from Ozzie Smith to Neil Smith willing to back him. Spicer is well known in the political community and is a legitimate contender in this race being run by James Harris.
Jake Vogel is the son of former Senator Carl Vogel, who, after serving as an Army Ranger, runs his family’s Coca-Cola distributorship. It’s been a little slow out of the gate, but with Barklage coming on board, look for things to pick up for Vogel.
If they split up that 53.% of the vote, there will be an open lane for someone from Camden County to run. Former Rep. Lisa Thomas has been rumored to be considering a run for Senate. Camden County Presiding Commissioner Ike Skelton has been mentioned. He has some legal issues right now, but if he comes through them, he will have more steam than ever. You have to think that before this race is over, Mrs. Gail will come up with some shenanigans to make this race even more fun to watch. In addition to that, a former St. Charles County Chuck Gatchenburger has retired to the lake and is running.
Chuck Gatchenburger
Cash on Hand:$ N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $ N/A
Ike Skelton
Cash on Hand:$ N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $ N/A
Former Rep. Lisa Thomas (Committee Terminated)
Cash on Hand: $42,142
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $42,142
Rep. Rudy Veit
Cash on Hand: $322,171.13
Candidate Loans: $250,000.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $322,171.13
Councilman Derrick Spicer
Cash on Hand: $154,347.75
Spicer for Senate PAC
Cash on Hand: $3,895.00
Candidate Loans: $100,000.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $158,242.75
Jake Vogel
Cash on Hand:$ N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $ N/A
#8 SD 18 Senator Cindy O’Laughlin is term-limited.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: LEAN GRAFF
There are big shoes to fill in the race for SD18. Rep. Greg Sharpe has a lot of the qualities you think of when you think of past Senators from northeast Missouri. He has a great profile and a great backstory to be a serious contender in the race. The question has been, will he run? Well, he recently put $30k of his own money into it. That is apart from Rep. Louis Riggs, who is not running.
Sarah Graff, who previously worked for Senators Blunt and Bond, is a newcomer to being on the ballot herself, but currently works for Congressman Sam Graves and will have the might of Axiom behind her on their home turf. She is from Moberly, which is one of the population centers of the district.
Dusty Blue is a veteran and business owner who will work to tap into the Eigel lane of northeast Missouri. He has his campaign manager, Sophie Shore, on board and will work to claim the “outsider” mantle in his first run for office.
This race will likely be a toss-up until one of the candidates starts raising money to outpace the others. Plus, a Senator O’Laughlin endorsement, which, if I had to guess, will go to Graff, would be a big get in this one.
Sarah Graff
Cash on Hand: $47,408.72
Rural Missouri Values
Cash on Hand: $2,500.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $49,908.72
Rep. Greg Sharpe
Cash on Hand: $2,461.43
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $2,461.43
Dusty Blue
Cash on Hand: $103,869.01
Candidate Loans: $100,000.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $103,869.01
#9 SD 8 Senator Mike Cierpiot is term-limited.
PRIMARY: UNCLEAR GENERAL: (With Patterson) LEAN REPUBLICAN (Without Patterson) TOSSUP
This entire race will be stuck in place until House Speaker Jon Patterson makes a final decision. If he files, then he is the favorite in the primary and the general. Now the primary will be a full campaign, but if he runs a full campaign, taking former Rep. Stacy seriously, he will win it.. There is a world in general where Trump tanks both close elections, but Trump has defied political gravity in the past. Further, I think the tendency of this district to vote for Republicans might carry him even in an anti-Trump year.
He has previously told several people, even me, that he is not interested in running for Senate, but recently changed his campaign committee to SD8. Whatever you wish to read into any of it, this race can’t be handicapped until he makes a final decision.
Speaking of, former Rep. Dan Stacy is running and, regardless of anyone’s opinion, will be a serious threat in the primary. There is nothing more that Rep. Ingle would love than a Stacy win, but that same sentiment makes him a viable threat to the right of the primary. If Patterson is out, look for republicans to turn to another physician, Dr. Marc Taormina, to hold the seat.
Rep. Keri Ingle is the perfect candidate for the Democrats to take this district. She flipped a House seat in her first campaign and followed that up with becoming a solid fundraiser and proving that she will knock her doors. If Trump turns toxic in Lee’s Summit, she could win this race no matter who her opponent is. If her opponent is Dr. Taormina, then this is anyone’s race, and we will see how he takes to being a candidate. If, as I’m sure she would hope, former Rep. Stacy is her opponent, then she will be favored. Her worst-case scenario is that her opponent is Patterson, and then she is going to need a national wave to carry her.
Rep. Keri Ingle
Cash on Hand: $91,284.50
KERI PAC
Cash on Hand: $29,402.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $120,686.50
Former Rep. Dan Stacy
Cash on Hand: $7,351.17
Candidate Loans: $1,000.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $7,351.17
Speaker Jon Patterson
Cash on Hand: $255,214.66
Missouri Alliance PAC
Cash on Hand: $1,173,867.20
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $1,429,081.86
#10 SD 20 Senator Curtis Trent is seeking re-election.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
This looked like a layup re-election for Senator Trent when, in a real sign of the times, he had a primary opponent accusing him of all things not being conservative enough. Now, there is no logical argument that Senator Trent is not conservative, in fact evidenced by the tax cut he passed last session, one of the most conservative senators in the chamber. However, he is not beloved by the trial lawyers, and they may be looking for a scalp. He has the combo of Axiom and Barklage on the race, so it will run well.
His opponent is a serious one in Lori Rook. She is an attorney and is running on a slogan of electing a real conservative. Rook ran for Treasurer in ‘24 in a race I never really saw coming together for her, but she will be a serious opponent even against an incumbent in this state senate primary. Rook has the dangerous Sophie Shore on her campaign, asking former Senator White if she should be taken seriously.
Sen. Curtis Trent
Cash on Hand: $119,694.09
417 PAC
Cash on Hand: $231,274.40
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $350,968.49
Lori Rook
Cash on Hand: N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: N/A
#11 SD 30 Senator Lincoln Hough is term-limited.
PRIMARY: LEAN STINNETT GENERAL: TOSS UP
Rep. Stinnett kicked her campaign off with a full house and introductions from the incoming House Speaker, Alex Riley, and Phil Melugin, not bad. She has a great profile and back story for the district. Stinnett is raising money, but that is probably the piece of this that will need to improve to fend off a primary challenge.
That primary challenge is most likely to come in the form of former candidate and business executive Brian Gelner. Gelner also fits the district, and perhaps most importantly, can self-fund in addition to being a good fundraiser from his ‘22 race against Senator Curtis Trent. He has been talking about jumping in for a few months, and others have been promoting him heavily in the last few weeks. I would say if he isn’t in by the veto session, then he probably isn’t getting in.
The general, on the other hand, will certainly be a donnybrook as whoever emerges from the primary will have to take on stellar democratic recruit Rep. Betsy Fogle. Her father, Brian Fogle, is a legend in Springfield, and she has created a moderate voting record and a history of winning tough races. Fogle has a respectable sum in the bank, and I believe the democrats can fully fund two races, and this will be the first of the two. It is a long time until the general election, but Trump’s standing will factor into a close race here. If you’re in the Fogle camp, you have to be excited about the number of house seats they have flipped inside SD30.
If there is a primary on the Republican side, then it will only help Fogle. I doubt you can say she is the favorite, but it would certainly be good news for her.
Rep. Melanie Stinnett
Cash on Hand: $102,930.62
Heart of SGF PAC
Cash on Hand: $29,342.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $132,272,62
Rep. Betsy Fogle
Cash on Hand: $146,367.34
Forward PAC
Cash on Hand: $64,561.67
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $210,929.01
#12 SD 32 Sen. Jill Carter is seeking re-election
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: LIKELY CARTER
Senator Carter pulled the upset of 2022 in defeating Senator Bill White. She has taken to the Senate and is now in a very good spot to be one of the most influential senators in the next two years.
Some thought that now former Rep. and USDA head Ben Baker might challenge her before accepting a very high position with the Trump administration. Now there are rumblings that former Senator White’s wife might make a run. Either way, Senator Carter should be fine.
Sen. Jill Carter
Cash on Hand: $25,421.35
Show Me Values PAC
Cash on Hand: $20,690.38
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $46,111.73
#13 SD 2 Senator Nick Schroer is seeking re-election.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Senator Schroer would be a tough one to knock off in a primary. However, ‘22 candidate, Armed with his big personality, Judge Mike Carter might kick the tires, but Schroer was just a guest on his show. Schroer has made the jump from complaining to accomplishing all while still being identified as a staunch pro-life, pro-gun supporter. I’m not sure where the line of attack on him would be, but St. Charles County is a volatile place. My prediction is that come filing day, he doesn’t face any serious threat to his re-election.
Sen. Nick Schroer
Cash on Hand: $64,242.97
1776 PAC
Cash on Hand: $125,942.10
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $190,185.07
#14 SD 12 Senator Rusty Black is seeking re-election.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
You could really take the bottom of this list and organize them pretty much any way you’d like and be right. Senator Black is the GREAT Northwest. I can’t imagine that anyone would run against the next apropos chair, but if anyone does, Axiom will never let them live it down.
Sen. Rusty Black
Cash on Hand: $150,349.77
Great Northwest PAC
Cash on Hand: $47,209.10
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $197,558.87
#15 SD 24 Senator Tracy McCreery is seeking re-election.
GENERAL: SAFE DEMOCRAT
Senator McCreery is beloved by St. Louis County Democrats, most of whom dream of her running for higher office. She is as unbeatable as anyone on the Democratic ballot in ‘26.
Most democrats will be overlooking her certain re-election to begin lobbying her to run for Congress in 2028.
Sen. Tracy McCreery
Cash on Hand: $131,499.66
Serve Missouri
Cash on Hand: $63,361.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $194,860.66
#16 SD 26 Senator Ben Brown is seeking re-election.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Senator Brown is totally protected on his right flank and is very popular in Franklin County. He has earned a great reputation working with his colleagues, and the chairman of the economic development committee will cruise to re-election.
However, that local committee is quite volatile, which is how he gets edged out for the safest incumbent in the state.
Sen. Ben Brown
Cash on Hand: $92,456.73
BB Freedom Fund
Cash on Hand: $85,191.15
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $177,647.88
#17 10 Senator Travis Fitzwater is seeking re-election.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Senator Fitzwater currently stands as the least likely Republican incumbent to face a serious primary or general election. He has done a good job of ingraining himself into the eastern side of the district, and his stellar reputation in the Kingdom of Callaway means he would be very, very tough to beat.
That, combined with the legislative record he is piling up, means he comes in as our incumbent least likely to face a tough primary, and in the 10th, there are no general elections.
Sen. Travis Fitzwater
Cash on Hand: $134,180.26
Kingdom Leadership PAC
Cash on Hand: $87,673.14
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $221,853.40
