2016 House Tip Sheet
With session behind us we take a look at the full slate of House races to give you a peek into who is returning and who will be new to Jefferson City in January. Our breakdown of the current map, which leans towards marking the races more competitive than they are is:
Uncontested General Election Seats: 67
Safe Republican Seats: 29
Leaning Republican Seats: 12
Uncontested General Election Seats: 31
Safe Democratic Seats: 9
Leaning Democratic Seats: 4
Our look shows Republicans already at a veto-proof majority without winning any of the toss up seats, which we’re confident they will at least split. However, included are some of the new legislators that you will see in the Capitol next year.
15 Hottest Primaries in the State
- HD 17 Republicans: Rep. Nick King vs. Mary Hill
- HD 73 Democrats: Rep. Courtney Curtis vs. Daniel Wibracht vs. Eileen McGeoghegan
- HD 80 Democrats: Peter Merideth vs. Ben Murray
- HD 107 Republicans: Nick Schroer vs. Rick Lucas
- HD 99 Republicans: Jean Evans vs. Richard LaViolette vs. Phillip Oehlerking vs. Nicholas Gerth
- HD 110 Republicans: Joy Krieger vs. Bruce DeGroot vs. Anne Gassel vs. Noreen McCann
- HD 106 Republicans: Rep. Chrissy Sommer vs. Mary West
- HD 108 Republicans: Rep. Justin Hill vs. Jeff Schwentker
- HD 19 Democrats: Manny Abarca vs. Ingrid Burnett
- HD 96 Republicans: David Gregory vs. Dan Reuter
- HD 65 Republicans: Adam Schnelting vs. Tom Hannegan
- HD 111 Republicans Rep. Shane Roden vs. Ryan Jones vs. Jason Jarvis vs. Gary Bonacker vs. Tammy Orzel
- HD 119 Greg Pugh vs. Nate Tate vs. Ron Blum
- HD 14 Rep. Kevin Corlew vs. Sean Pouche
- HD 77 Steve Roberts vs. Jesse Todd vs. John Collins-Muhammad vs. Brian Elsesser
10 General Elections in the State
- HD 17 Rep. King seeking re-election.
- HD 14 Rep. Corlew seeking re-election.
- HD 47 Rep. Basye seeking re-election.
- HD 90 Rep. Lavender seeking re-election.
- HD 94 Rep. Brown seeking re-election.
- HD 44 Rep. Rowden leaving seat open to run for senate.
- HD 112 Rep. Vescovo seeking re-election.
- HD 20 Rep. Kidd seeking re-election.
- HD 132 Rep. Norr is term-limited.
- HD 113 Rep. Shaul seeking re-election.
Open Seats with only Primaries – 14
Open seats with only Republican primaries – 7
HD 7 (R+7.2) Lair UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
John Myers – $5.00
Rusty Black – $15,946.46
Rusty Black is a retiring agriculture teacher who teaches Sunday school and is almost straight out of central casting to represent this seat for 8 years.
HD 96 (R+8.5) Leara UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
Dan Reuter – $15,964.66
David Gregory – $16,891.12
This will be a tight race, but as of now Gregory has the slight edge. He is related to the retiring Rep. Mike Leara and an attorney with the ability to raise money. His opponent Dan Reuter is also an attorney and has been in South County longer. It may be experience versus youth and energy in this race that will likely be close and well-funded.
HD 100 (R+10.2) Allen UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
Mike Allen – $31,555.91
Derek Grier – $5,704.19
Everyone knows Mike as the husband of retiring Rep. Sue Allen. He is the overwhelming favorite and will continue the tradition of his wife’s service in the Capitol.
HD 119 (R+0.08) Hinson UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
Greg Pugh – $900.00
Nate Tate – $29.41
Ron Blum – $8,431.81
This will be a tough race in a district that is trending more conservative all the time. Right now it’s a toss up between Nate Tate and Ron Blum. Blum starts the race with the name ID to win, but is being out-worked by Tate.
HD 128 (R+14.1) Entlicher UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
Roy Harms – $349.56
Mike Stephens – $20,228.17
Rick Vance – n/a
Stephens is a pharmacist in Bolivar and has the money, name ID and institutional support to easily win this race be in Jefferson City in January.
HD 141 (R+16.4) Dugger UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
Stan Coday – $240.00
Hannah Kelly – $959.26
Kelly is part of the Kelly family who sent former Rep. Van Kelly to Jefferson City and is now a judge. She is working hard and should easily win this race.
HD 163 (R+22.1) Flanigan UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
Bill Birkes – $9,265.65
Cody Smith – $3,586.54
Steve Leibbrand – n/a
Birkes is a veteran and banker from Carthage who starts the race as the front runner. Cody Smith perhaps brings more energy to the race and is a realtor. This is a race that could shift quickly if Smith proves he can fundraise.
Open Seats with only Democratic Primaries – 7
HD 19 (D+21.6) Rizzo UNCONTESTED DEMOCRAT
Manny Abarca – $6,864.66
Ingrid Burnett – $9,575.88
Ingrid Burnett starts the race as the front runner. She is a retired teacher and was elected to the Kansas City school board. Her build in name ID in the seat makes her the favorite. However, Abarca is a former Talboy intern and works for Congressman Cleaver. He is running a good race. This could be close.
HD 68 (D+15.9) English UNCONTESTED DEMOCRAT
Bert Atkins – $1,364.69
Jay Mosley – $500.00
Former Rep. Atkins should win this handily, but you can’t count out some of the animosity retiring Rep. Keith English has that might motivate him to stir trouble for Atkins or the vote dealing with Boeing that sent him home four years ago. He is very likely to return, but it’s not safe yet.
HD 69 (D+12.7) McNeil UNCONTESTED DEMOCRAT
Gretchen Bangert – $74.47
Jerry Burke – $442.14
This race had a surprise when one expected candidate didn’t file at the last minute. Gretchen Bangert has worked in government and has been heavily involved with the schools. Jerry Burke has a background in law enforcement. This race will likely break heavily one way or another, but is still very under the radar as of now.
HD 74 (D+29.2) Pace UNCONTESTED DEMOCRAT
Cora Walker – $12,275.46
Don Houston –
Cora Faith Walker will be a star in the Democratic caucus. She is an attorney who is an expert in public health policy. She should easily win the primary and will likely make a big impact in Jefferson City.
HD 77 (D+46.3) Gardner UNCONTESTED DEMOCRAT
Jesse Todd –
Steve Roberts – $25,347.98
John Collins-Muhammad –
Brian Elsesser – $371.00
Steve Roberts is part of the successful Roberts family who are in real estate development. He chose not to run for Circuit Attorney, an office he has experience working in, to run for state rep. He will be pushed by John Collins-Muhammad, who is working the district and, even if unsuccessful this summer, will be a name your hear more from in the future.
HD 80 (D+29.8) Colona UNCONTESTED DEMOCRAT
Ben Murray – $39,134.86
Peter Merideth – $34,493.08
This will likely be the toughest primary of the summer and could end up revolving around controversial Alderwoman Megan Green, who Murray is linked to. She stated during the St. Louis stadium debate last year that she was illegally offered help to Murray’s campaign if she would support the measure. She ultimately backed down from the claims and it proved embarrassing for Murray. Merideth is an attorney, has a good relationship with retiring Rep. Mike Colona (and has earned Colona’s endorsement), and is running a solid campaign. Murray has links to the Carnahan family and knows how to campaign. Both are very left wing and have committed supporters. This will be a fun race to watch.
HD 81 (D+24.4) Hummel UNCONTESTED DEMOCRAT
Fred Wessels – $32,475.37
Steve Butz –
Adam Kustra –
Fred Wessels is an incumbent alderman in the City of St. Louis, knows how to campaign and will not only easily win his primary, but likely add a great deal to the Democratic caucus in Jefferson City come January. He is an incoming rep to get to know early.
Open Seats with Primaries and Generals – 12
HD 28 (D+11.5) McDonald SAFE DEMOCRATIC
PRIMARY: TOSS UP
(D) Jim Aziere – $0.00
(D) Josh Greene – $2,825.11
(D) Jerome Barnes – $1,800.00
(D) Pat Riehle – $62.28
(D) Diane Krizek –
(R) William Van Buskirk – $100.00
Jerome Barnes is a veteran and a top candidate. Jim Aziere has faced questions that he may be a former Republican. Josh Greene could have the support of McDonald, which would make him the favorite. It’s likely going to take a few weeks to sort out a race that started jumbled.
HD 46 (D+8.3) Webber SAFE DEMOCRATIC
PRIMARY: LEAN STEVENS
(D) Cathy Richards – $6,139.86
(D) Martha Stevens – $35,107.53
(R) Don Waterman – $1,707.55
Martha Stevens knows progressive Democratic politics and is the clear front runner for the seat to replace Rep. Webber. She will have a leg up on most freshmen legislators, and will likely be a name everyone in the capitol knows by spring break.
HD 65 (D+0.03) Zerr LEAN REPUBLICAN
PRIMARY: LEAN SCHNELTING
(D) Kenny Bierman – $3,189.68
(R) Adam Schnelting – $9,095.29
(R) Tom Hannegan – $1,665.01
This race is a microcosm of St. Charles County Republican politics with a mainstream conservative squaring off with a right-wing conservative. Schnelting has the support of all the usual St. Charles County Republicans. He is a former minister and has worked for the Missouri House. This race should be tight, but Schnelting starts as the favorite.
HD 66 (D+36.2) Pierson Sr. SAFE DEMOCRATIC
PRIMARY: LEAN PIERSON JR
(D) Tommie Pierson, Jr. –
(D) Khalil Mumin –
(D) Marlene Terry –
(R) John Saxton –
Retiring Rep. Tommie Pierson, Sr. will be on the ballot for lt. governor and that, along with his name ID, should be enough to propel his son Tommie Pierson, Jr. into the House.
HD 70 (D+0.07) Otto LEAN DEMOCRATIC
PRIMARY: LEAN MATTHIESEN
(D) Byron DeLear – $55,619.43
(R) Andrew Purcell – $375.00
(R) Mark Matthiesen – $427.67
Matthiesen has been involved in Republican politics in Maryland Heights and is the favorite in the primary. He works in the hospitality industry and looks set for a general election battle with energy executive Byron DeLear. Due to the deficit of Democratic candidates who filed, this could develop into a race to watch.
HD 99 (R+3.4) Koenig SAFE REPUBLICAN
PRIMARY: TOSS UP
(D) William Pinkston –
(R) Richard LaViolette – $1,365.36
(R) Philip Oehlerking – $4,169.80
(R) Jean Evans – $2,380.41
(R) Nicholas Gerth – $6,051.00
This race is a free-for-all with no clear fundraising leader and all having a ground game of some level. Jean Evans is very active in the community and may be the front runner. Richard LaViolette once proposed a ballot measure to ban personal property taxes. Philip Oehlerking is running an energetic campaign and will be a name to know regardless of the outcome this summer. Nicholas Gerth has the early fundraising lead. Look for someone to emerge as the frontrunner by the 4th of July and win handily.
HD 101 (R+10.2) Gosen SAFE REPUBLICAN
PRIMARY: LEAN MCCANN
(D) Dennis Lavallee –
(R) Joy Krieger – $5,445.90
(R) Bruce DeGroot – $4,000.00
(R) Anne Gassel – $1,215.80
(R) Noreen McCann – $8,216.32
This race developed quickly after the resignation of former Rep. Don Gosen. Noreen McCann has the establishment advantage and has not only turned it into a fundraising lead, but also ground organization. Joy Krieger knows politics, serving as a not-for-profit executive, and is a top tier contender. Bruce DeGroot is an attorney who is running a competitive campaign. Any of the field will be effective legislators, and this will be a competitive primary.
HD 107 (R+1.6) Hicks SAFE REPUBLICAN
PRIMARY: TOSS UP
(D) Curtis Wylde – $100.00
(R) Nick Schroer – $15,910.00
(R) Rick Lucas –
Schroer is doing everything he can to put this race away, but Rick Lucas is a longtime councilman who has the support of former Rep. Vicki Schneider. Schroer is the brother-in-law of Rep. Robert Cornejo and will likely have the support of most west St. Charles County social conservatives. This will be a tight primary, but as of today, Schroer has a slight leg up.
HD 117 (D+4.7) Black SAFE REPUBLICAN
PRIMARY: SAFE HENDERSON
(D) Travis Barnes – $1,000.00
(R) Mike Miller – $4,618.13
(R) Mike Henderson – n/a
Mike Henderson is a former school administrator and is the clear favorite in the primary and general to replace retiring Rep. Linda Black. Henderson will likely start the trend of electing Republicans in north St. Francois County.
HD 132 (D+5.4) Norr TOSS UP
PRIMARY: LEAN QUADE
PRIMARY: SAFE HOBBS
(D) Crystal Quade – $15,131.46
(D) Bob Sweere – $2,624.96
(R) Thomas Quinn –
(R) Tyler Hobbs – $4,861.95
The Republicans have tried for 8 years to unseat Charlie Norr and make the entire 7th Congressional District Republican, but have always been unsuccessful. They feel like they have their best recruit in years to do so this cycle in veteran Tyler Hobbs. However, the Democrats have a strong candidate in Crystal Quade who starts as the frontrunner to be in Jefferson City in January. Quade is a not-for-profit executive who will be formidable in November.
HD 133 (R+11.8) Burlison SAFE REPUBLICAN
PRIMARY: LEAN TRENT
(D) Jim Clemmons –
(R) Curtis Trent – $87,430.14
(R) Matthew Sims – $17,971.74
(R) David Cort – $1,986.91
(R) Mike Goodart –
There are several good candidates to replace Rep. Burlison in this Republican stronghold, but attorney Curtis Trent is the far-and-away favorite to win the primary and general election.
HD 145 (R+13.4) Kenney SAFE REPUBLICAN
PRIMARY: LEAN FRANCIS
(D) Ronald Pember –
(R) Rick Francis – $7,010.42
(R) Chad Unterreiner – $5,574.45
Farmer and former educator Rick Francis is the frontrunner to replace retiring Rep. Shelley Keeney. Unterreiner is a good candidate, but Francis is from the right part of the district, will likely consolidate the establishment support and win the primary then easily win the general.
Open seats only challenged in the general election – 6
HD 44 (R+0.03) Rowden TOSS UP
(D) Tom Pauley – $1,967.24
(R) Cheri Reisch – $1,705.49
The 44th is always a marquee race in the state, and it will be even more so this year with Rep. Rowden running for senate. Tom Pauley is an alderman in Hallsville and has previously worked on staff with the state senate. Cheri Reisch is the Mayor of Hallsville and a top recruit by House Republicans. This seat is always a battleground and this year will be no different.
HD 54 (R+3.9) Hoskins SAFE REPUBLICAN
(D) Bob Gregory – $2,373.40
(R) Dan Houx – $7,762.92
Dan Houx is the overwhelming favorite to win the seat and has every opportunity to be a leader in the General Assembly. He is in construction, and brings an outstanding resume to the job. Bob Gregory is a good candidate, but may have simply run in the wrong year.
HD 82 (D+13) Kratky SAFE DEMOCRATIC
(D) Donna Baringer – $48,137.46
(R) Robert Crump –
Donna Baringer is an alderwoman in the City of St. Louis and could be the top Democrat entering the House this cycle. She already has an understanding of Jefferson City and politics. She will be a key ally for whoever the next mayor of St. Louis is to relate to a very rural and very Republican majority party in Jefferson City.
HD 91 (D+4.2) Kirkton LEAN DEMOCRATIC
(D) Sarah Unsicker – $10,891.69
(R) Greg Mueller – $37,867.40
This is the sleeper pick for many Republicans this cycle. Greg Mueller is an attorney and a dynamic candidate that has House Republicans thinking they can creep farther into St. Louis County. Sarah Unsicker is also a top recruit. She is an attorney and very active in the community. She should win, and if there is a district where Trump could have a negative effect, it would be the 91st.
HD 105 (R+3.8) Parkinson SAFE REPUBLICAN
(D) Brian Stiens – n/a
(R) Phil Christofanelli – $10,535.39
Last cycle HRCC had to come in and put money into this race at the end. That looks to be an aberration as Christofanelli is doing his doors and should win handily.
HD 135 (R+1.9) Hough TOSS UP
(D) Randy Alberhasky – $1,672.26
(R) Steve Helms – $2,256.58
This was a very close race six years ago when Rep. Lincoln Hough won it, and will likely be close again. However, the Republicans have a good candidate in Steve Helms and have avoided a primary. Helms is a familiar face to those in the Capitol working for Rep. Eric Burlison back home, as he is the former county clerk and starts with the advantage. Randy Alberhasky is the former Greene County Circuit Clerk and a practicing attorney in Springfield. This could be one of the tightest races of the cycle.
Incumbents with Primaries -12
Seats held by incumbents with only Republican primaries – 7
HD 2 (R+8.7) Eggleston UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
J. Eggleston – $12,723.20
Homer Curtis –
Rep. Eggleston will easily be re-elected.
HD 31 (R+1.5) Solon UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
Sheila Solon – $93,084.13
Dan Stacy –
Rep. Solon will easily be re-elected. Although there will be some bluster from labor opponents.
HD 59 (R+15.7) Bernskoetter UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
Mike Bernskoetter – $67,379.72
Rep. Bernskoetter will easily be re-elected.
HD 137 (R+13.3) Fraker UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
Rep. Fraker should easily win re-election.
HD 142 (R+9.9) Ross UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
Robert Ross – $16,561.19
Bobby Johnson –
Rep. Ross will easily be re-elected.
HD 143 (R+7.2) Pogue UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
Jeff Pogue – $16,921.99
Bobby Simpson – $749.55
Rep. Pogue will easily be re-elected.
HD 155 (R+14.5) Rowland UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
Lyle Rowland – $552.30
Mike Lind –
Rep. Rowland will easily be re-elected.
Seats held by Democrats with only Democratic primaries – 5
HD 23 (D+37.1) Dunn UNCONTESTED DEMOCRAT
Randy Dunn – $10,492.67
Derron Black – $150.00
Rep. Dunn will easily be re-elected.
District 27 (D+32.6) Mims UNCONTESTED DEMOCRAT
Bonnaye Mims – $32,656.95
Richard Brown –
Rep. Mims will be re-elected, but there is cause to see her have more trouble than others.
HD 67 (D+21.5) Green UNCONTESTED DEMOCRAT
Alan Green – $10,125.19
Shelia Thompson –
Rep. Green will be re-elected, but this is a race that could be contested.
HD 73 (D+31.7) Curtis UNCONTESTED DEMOCRAT
Courtney Curtis –
Daniel Wibracht – $3,153.07
Eileen McGeoghegan –
Lee Smith – $7,094.24
This will be an amazing race to watch. Rep. Curtis managed to anger so many constituencies, starting with labor, that instead of getting one primary opponent, he got three. That may be the best thing that happened to him. Former Rep. Eileen McGeoghegan will be his primary challenger, but Wilbracht is also a good candidate. It will likely be up to labor to run the campaign, and Senator Maria Chappelle-Nadal to fund Curtis. This will be a primary to watch.
HD 75 (D+41) Gray UNCONTESTED DEMOCRAT
Alan Gray – $6,379.00
Teona Boure – $353.87
Rep. Gray will be re-elected, but this is a race that could be contested.
Incumbents with General Elections – 38
Incumbent Republicans being challenged only in the general election – 32
HD 5 (R+8.8) Shumake SAFE REPUBLICAN
(D) O.C. Latta – $100.00
(R) Lindell Shumake – $9,392.96
Rep. Shumake will be easily re-elected.
HD 12 (R+3.1) Wilson SAFE REPUBLICAN
(D) Sandy Wagner – $570.00
(R) Ken Wilson – $19,424.90
Rep. Wilson will be easily re-elected.
HD 13 (R+3.8) Marshall LEAN REPUBLICAN
(D) Tyler McCall –
(R) Nick Marshall – $16,070.41
Rep. Marshall should win re-election, but he has drawn an opponent who understands politics and could give him a run. Either way, McCall will be a top recruit to run for the open seat next cycle.
HD 33 (R+4.1) Pfautsch SAFE REPUBLICAN
(D) Linder/Asif – $1,100.00 / –
(R) Donna Pfautsch – $49,002.40
Rep. Pfautsch will be easily re-elected.
HD 43 (R+5.3) Houghton SAFE REPUBLICAN
(D) Ed Lockwood –
(R) Jay Houghton – $31,106.15
Rep. Houghton will be easily re-elected.
HD 47 (D+0.07) Basye TOSS UP
(D) Susan McClintic – $34,421.34
(R) Chuck Basye – $23,588.66
This again will be one of the most expensive and hotly contested districts in the state. Basye has a conservative voting record, and that will win him some points and leave some opportunities for attack by his opponent – Susan McClintic, a retiring teacher who has run the NEA in Columbia. It will be another Boone County race where both opponents are qualified and well-funded. We will see if Boone County is really red or if the Obama years were an aberration.
HD 51 (R+0.08) Dohrman LEAN REPUBLICAN
(D) John Cozort –
(R) Dean Dohrman – $5,302.65
Rep. Dohrman should be fine in his bid for re-election against Cozort – a devout Bernie Sanders supporter, but this is a district that has always been stubborn for Republicans. Dohrman is the type of Republican who can win the district, but it could be close.
HD 52 (R+5.6) Beard LEAN REPUBLICAN
(D) Kyle Garner – $3,056.28
(R) Nathan Beard – $18,371.56
Rep. Beard should be in a good position to be re-elected, but he has a young hard charging Democratic opponent in Kyle Garner. Garner is currently in law school, and will make for a spirited re-election bid for Beard.
HD 55 (R+7.5) Brattin LEAN REPUBLICAN
(D) Ashley Beard – $21,395.16
(R) Rick Brattin – $5,101.92
Brattin should be in a good position to win re-election, but Ashley Beard might be the top outstate recruit for House Democrats. She works for UMKC and has some of the moderate social views that Democrats are going to need to win suburban races. Taking on an incumbent is tough, but if she is willing to make a couple runs, she could signal the start of Democrats competing in the exburbs again.
HD 56 (R+3.4) Bondon SAFE REPUBLICAN
(D) DJ Rash –
(R) Jack Bondon – $21,939.20
Rep. Bondon will easily win re-election.
HD 57 (R+4.1) Brown SAFE REPUBLICAN
(D) William Grimes –
(R) Wanda Brown – $16,217.41
Rep. Brown will easily win re-election.
HD 60 (R+6.4) Barnes SAFE REPUBLICAN
(D) Kevin Nelson –
(R) Jay Barnes – $59,387.46
Rep. Barnes will easily win re-election.
HD 61 (R+10.7) Alferman SAFE REPUBLICAN
(D) Tom Smith – $0.00
(R) Justin Alferman – $23,671.80
Rep. Alferman will easily win re-election.
HD 63 (R+4.8) Spencer LEAN REPUBLICAN
(D) Liz Gattra –
(R) Bryan Spencer – $8,327.53
Rep. Spencer is in a district where he should win re-election, but his flip-flopping on labor issues gives his opponent, Liz Gattra, an opening. However, she won’t be helped by her attack against car dealers from last year. While it may be becoming fashionable to attack Americana in the urban core, it’s hard to sell an attack on car dealers in the heartland.
HD 64 (R+2.6) Cornejo LEAN REPUBLICAN
(D) Mark Routberg –
(R) Robert Cornejo – $45,673.39
Rep. Cornejo should be fine in his bid for re-election, but his district has always been competitive, and this year should be no different.
HD 89 (R+12.6) Plocher SAFE REPUBLICAN
(D) Jacj Schilligo – $660.36
(R) Dean Plocher – $29,555.14
Rep. Plocher should easily win re-election.
HD 94 (D+2.5) Brown TOSS UP
(D) Vicki Englund – $18,901.29
(R) Cloria Brown – $11,756.81
Everyone knows this now eight year seesaw battle. It would seem that since it’s a presidential cycle its Englund’s turn to win this swing seat. However, she will have to be out on doors, and do her typical top notch fundraising job. HRCC is always committed to this seat, and look for another expensive battle in South County.
HD 95 (R+4.9) Haefner LEAN REPUBLICAN
(D) Glenn Koenen – $900.98
(R) Marsha Haefner – $40,776.36
Rep. Marsha Haefner will likely win re-election, but it could be her toughest re-election. If Koenen is close, look for Senator Sifton to execute his ground game that could make this race close as well. Rep. Haefner is the clear favorite, but this could develop into a race.
HD 98 (R+7.9) Dogan SAFE REPUBLICAN
(D) Nancy Craig –
(R) Shamed Dogan – $19,619.89
Rep. Dogan should easily win re-election.
HD 103 (R+7.8) Wiemann SAFE REPUBLICAN
(D) Marguerite Dillworth –
(R) John Wiemann – $37,114.00
Rep. Wiemann should easily win re-election.
HD 104 (R+2.1) Conway SAFE REPUBLICAN
(D) Peggy Sherwin –
(R) Kathie Conway – $40,338.45
Rep. Conway should easily win re-election.
HD 112 (D+2.2) Vescovo TOSS UP
(D) Robert Butler – $18,822.60
(R) Rob Vescovo – $56,187.36
Rep. Vescovo was elected to this swing seat during the wave election of 2014, and has accumulated a very conservative voting record. He has won over the major donors on the right, and they are committed to re-electing him. However, Butler is a good candidate back for another round in a district where both Donald Trump and Attorney General Koster are likely to run well.
HD 113 (D+4.8) Shaul TOSS UP
PRIMARY: LEAN Settlemoir-Berg
(D) Mike Evans – $5,210.92
(D) Karen Settlemoir-Berg –
(R) Dan Shaul – $28,099.65
Rep. Shaul was set to be easily re-elected until his flip-flop on Right to Work now he faces a competitive opponent. Settlemoir-Berg is a UCFW rep. and she’s had strong fundraising thanks to her labor connections. Evans is a veteran. Either candidate will seek to make the race about Right to Work as Shaul’s being targeted by labor. It appears that anti-labor groups will be there for Rep. Shaul who starts the race with the advantage.
HD 115 (D+7.9) Gannon LEAN REPUBLICAN
(D) Barbara Stocker – $3,500.00
(R) Elaine Gannon – $26,779.82
Every year the Democrats take a run at Rep. Gannon and every year they find out how popular she is. This seat is likely won’t be in play until she terms out.
HD 130 (R+14.6) Messenger SAFE REPUBLICAN
(D) Ella Goeppinger – $1,205.52
(R) Jeff Messenger – $5,907.53
Rep. Messenger should easily win re-election.
HD 131 (R+10.7) Anderson SAFE REPUBLICAN
(D) Nate Branscom – $50.00
(R) Sonya Anderson – $14,511.66
Rep. Anderson should easily win re-election.
HD 134* (R+7.1) Haahr SAFE REPUBLICAN
(D) Angela Pryor – $17.83
(R) Elijah Haahr – $106,035.60
Rep. Haahr should easily win re-election.
HD 136 (R+13.3) Austin SAFE REPUBLICAN
(D) Jeff Munzinger – $19,298.81
(R) Kevin Austin – $53,019.97
Rep. Austin should easily win re-election.
HD 140 (R+17.8) Morris SAFE REPUBLICAN
(D) Jim Billedo – $2,019.65
(R) Lynn Morris – $82,049.53
Rep. Morris should easily win re-election.
HD 149 (D+3.5) Rone SAFE REPUBLICAN
(D) Brantley Atchley – $100.00
(R) Don Rone – $21,763.05
Rep. Rone should easily win re-election.
HD 150 (R+3.8) McDaniel LEAN REPUBLICAN
(D) Lena Samford – $3,064.08
(R) Andrew McDaniel – $2,206.10
Rep. McDaniel starts as the clear favorite, and is in strong position to win re-election, but this is a close district and every cycle now, Speaker Todd Richardson is forced to write a large check to ensure it stays in Republican hands. However, the bootheel is a place where Trump could overperform and make this cycle one where that money could go elsewhere.
HD 153 (R+12.2) Cookson SAFE REPUBLICAN
(D) Matt Michel –
(R) Steve Cookson – $16,135.80
Rep. Cookson will be easily re-elected.
Incumbent Democrats being challenged only in the general election – 6
HD 21 (D+6.9) Anders SAFE DEMOCRATIC
(D) Ira Anders – $29,175.31
(R) Vicki Riley – $253.00
Rep. Anders will be easily re-elected.
HD 72 (D+11.1) Nichols LEAN DEMOCRATIC
(D) Mary Nichols – $55,074.92
(R) Dan Hyatt – $1,277.79
Rep. Nichols should win re-election, but recently there has been a focus on supporting Republican candidates running in the Maryland Heights area. If Hyatt is polling strong in October, it’s going to be a very good year for Missouri Republicans.
HD 85 (D+32.9) Smith SAFE DEMOCRATIC
(D) Clem Smith – $10,983.31
(R) Steven McKnight –
Rep. Smith will be easily re-elected.
HD 90 (R+0.06) Lavender TOSS UP
(D) Deb Lavender – $77,694.87
(R) Mark Milton – $31,646.89
This district has seen Rep. Lavender run the past several cycles and it has been competitive in all of them. However, in 2016 she is facing a much stronger opponent than last cycle in Mark Milton, a Kirkwood attorney. Like past cycles this will be an expensive and hotly contested district. Rep. Lavender did have a slip up on a gun bill, but this time, unlike past cycles, she has the advantage of being an incumbent. Further the Trump effect could be a drag on Republicans in the Kirkwood area.
HD 92 (D+3.7) Monticello LEAN DEMOCRAT
(D) Genise Montecillo – $57,062.23
(R) Daniel Bogle –
Rep Montecillo is the clear front runner for re-election, but she has drawn a top tier opponent in Daniel Bogle an executive with the Grocer’s Association. This race will likely be closer than some think, and even if Bogle comes up short this cycle he will be in a prime position to pick up the open seat in 2018.
HD 93 (D+10.7) Burns SAFE DEMOCRAT
(D) Bob Burns – $4,934.60
(R) Landry Sorbel – $229.59
Rep. Burns will be easily re-elected.
Incumbents with Primaries and Generals – 9
Incumbent Republicans being challenged in both the primary and general election – 7
HD14 (D+2.9) Corlew TOSS UP
PRIMARY: LEAN CORLEW
(R) Kevin Corlew – $49,055.81
(R) Sean Pouche – $2,287.89
(D) Martin Rucker – $7,104.24
Rep. Corlew won a pick up in the seat Rep. Swearingen held in 2014. He basically voted the way he campaigned, and now has a primary election where he will be favored. After winning that, he will have one of the tightest general election races in the state. He will have full funding to run the races, but he will need a united party, and as much money as he can save for a heavyweight battle in the fall.
HD 17 (D+4.3) King TOSS UP
PRIMARY: TOSS UP
(R) Nick King – $35,209.59
(R) Mary Hill –
(D) Mark Ellebracht –
This will be the tightest and most contentious primary in the state as Rep. King is facing a challenge from the right in nurse and Right-to-Work activist Mary Hill. Whoever wins in the fall, this race will be the top pickup target for Democrats, with Mark Ellebracht waiting for the winner in the general election.
HD 20 (D+5.8) Kidd TOSS UP
PRIMARY: LEAN KIDD
(R) Bill Kidd – $30,054.56
(R) Christopher Dale – $192.18
(D) Mike Englert –
Rep. Kidd picked up a tough seat for Republicans last year knocking off former Rep. John Mayfield, and after winning saw other Republicans recruit a primary opponent for him in Christopher Dale. The Democrat tilt to the district means that the 20th will be competitive in the fall regardless of who the Republican nominee is but if Kidd is defeated in the primary the Democrats will be favored.
HD 58 (R+10) Wood SAFE REPUBLICAN
PRIMARY: SAFE WOOD
(R) David Wood – $13,255.44
(R) Alex Stafford –
(R) Mike Staton – $2,002.10
(D) Travis Maupin – $0.00
Rep. Wood will be easily re-elected.
HD 106 (R+0.03) Sommer LEAN REPUBLICAN
PRIMARY: LEAN SOMMER
(R) Chrissy Sommer – $44,929.63
(R) Mary West –
(D) Michael Dorwart – $604.43
The Republican civil war is also in the 106th, with fringe elements of the party recruiting, and now apparently funding, a primary opponent against Rep. Chrissy Sommer. She is the clear favorite to win re-election, but it will be a competitive primary. If Sommer is the nominee, the seat will be safe for Republicans. If she is defeated in the primary the seat will be more competitive in the fall.
HD 108 (R+8.1) Hill SAFE REPUBLICAN
PRIMARY: LEAN HILL
(R) Justin Hill – $20,451.82
(R) Jeff Schwentker –
(D) Ed Shew – $4,517.87
This is another primary brought on by the civil war that was started last session when Republicans began spending money to run ads attacking other Republicans who didn’t vote in lockstep. Rep. Justin Hill should win his primary against O’Fallon City Councilman Jeff Schwentker, but Schwentker has the ability to make this a close race. Another example of an ongoing fight over small issues dragging down the Republican party.
HD 111 (D+1.7) Roden LEAN REPUBLICAN
PRIMARY: LEAN RODEN
(R) Shane Roden – $25,288.25
(R) Ryan Jones – $246.15
(R) Jason Jarvis – $435.04
(R) Gary Bonacker –
(R) Tammy Orzel –
(D) Viehland –
Shane Roden won in a bit of an upset last year, and has taken to voting in 2015 and 2016 the way he campaigned and was elected on in 2014. In today’s Republican party, that gets you a primary opponent, or four of them. Roden will likely be well served by the amount of primary opponents and if he wins the primary the general election. If he is knocked off in the primary this seat will lean towards the Democrats in the fall.
Incumbent Democrats being challenged in both the primary and general election – 2
HD 71 (D+8.9) Meredith SAFE DEMOCRAT
PRIMARY: SAFE MEREDITH
(D) Sue Meredith – $37,759.16
(D) Bryan Like – $64.55
(R) Jim Cain – $116.97
Rep. Meredith will be easily re-elected.
HD 78 (D+36.2) Hubbard SAFE DEMOCRAT
PRIMARY: SAFE HUBBARD
(D) Penny Hubbard – $1,868.10
(D) Bruce Franks – $4,764.16
(R) Erik Shelquist – $116.97
Rep. Hubbard will be easily re-elected.
Unopposed Incumbents – 72
Republicans – 53
HD 1 (R+10.8) Andrews – $24,392.56 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 3 (R+6.5) Walker – $3,956.91 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 4 (R+5.6) Redmon – $15,162.65 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 6 (R+6) Remole – $9,472.17 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 8 (R+1.6) Neely – $44,849.84 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 9 (R+8) Johnson – $10,617.67 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 11 (D+4.2) Higdon – $11,196.99 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 16 (D+1.7) Shull – $68,929.55 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 30 (R+3.8) Cierpiot – $73,016.06 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 32 (R+4.3) Lauer – $71,828.88 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 34 (R+4.9) Roeber – $17,642.15 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 35 (0) Cross – $26,865.54 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 38 (R+1.6) Berry* – $77,084.03 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 39 (D+0.06) McGaugh – $18,657.22 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 40 (R+1.5) Hansen – $25,943.61 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 41 (R+1.3) Pietzman – $28,776.71 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 42 (R+5.8) Korman – $37,634.35 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 48 (R+4.2) Muntzel – $7,191.85 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 49 (R+6.3) Fitzwater – $32,154.11 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 50 (R+4.5) Jones – $194,297.71 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 53 (R+3.2) Kolkmeyer – $41,191.28 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 62 (R+4.8) Hurst – $16,434.64 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 97 (D+2.8) McCaherty* – $50,856.44 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 102 (R+9.6) Bahr – $8,241.23 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 109 (R+4.8) Curtman – $26,037.32 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 110 (R+11.1) Mathews – $23,553.78 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 114 (D+5.7) Ruth – $20,772.29 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 116 (R+0.05) Engler – $59,258.46 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 120 (R+7.2) Chipman – $2,571.87 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 121 (R+9.3) Frederick – $29,502.92 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 122 (R+11.5) Lynch – $3,304.93 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 123 (R+14.8) Franklin – $5,591.51 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 124 (R+13.3) Miller – $42,744.30 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 125 (R+4.7) Love – $4,881.73 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 126 (R+6.1) Pike – $9,983.13 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 127 (R+22.4) Kelley – $3,950.54 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 129 (R+13.6) Crawford – $49,771.21 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 138 (R+15.3) Phillips – $25,132.07 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 139 (R+16.6) Taylor – $2,255.06 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 144 (D+1.2) Fitzwater – $34,587.92 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 146 (R+11.6) Lichtenegger – $19,354.03 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 147 (R+11.4) Swan* – $47,718.47 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 148 (R+11.7) Rehder – $44,217.72 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 151 (R+13.2) Rowland-Hubrecht – $4,390.00 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 152 (R+10.4) Richardson – $381,761.75 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 154 (R+13.8) Rhoads – $24,401.78 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 156 (R+14.6) Justus – $4,259.44 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 157 (R+16) Moon – $2,309.88 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 158 (R+15) Fitzpatrick – $39,995.83 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 159 (R+19.2) Lant – $7,129.16 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 160 (R+20.6) Reiboldt – $20,732.31 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 161 (R+15.2) White – $42,716.58 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
HD 162 (R+18.1) Davis – $9,791.06 UNCONTESTED REPUBLICAN
Democrats – 19
HD 10 (D+5.5) Conway – $30,886.93 UNCONTESTED DEMOCRAT
HD 15 (D+6.1) Carpenter – $43,540.55 UNCONTESTED DEMOCRAT
HD 18 (D+19.3) Arthur – $26,503.37 UNCONTESTED DEMOCRAT
HD 22 (D+37.7) Ellington – $17,862.58 UNCONTESTED DEMOCRAT
HD 24 (D+37.1) Morgan – $39,532.11 UNCONTESTED DEMOCRAT
HD 25 (D+17.7) Razer** – $19,089.26 UNCONTESTED DEMOCRAT
HD 26 (D+31.5) Beatty – $17,791.95 UNCONTESTED DEMOCRAT
HD 29 (D+7) Rowland – $9,388.87 UNCONTESTED DEMOCRAT
HD 36 (D+16.9) McGee – $7,891.48 UNCONTESTED DEMOCRAT
HD 37 (D+10.8) Runions – $32,182.59 UNCONTESTED DEMOCRAT
HD 45 (D+14.3) Kendrick – $25,510.51 UNCONTESTED DEMOCRAT
HD 76 (D+46.5) Peters – $9,631.98 UNCONTESTED DEMOCRAT
HD 79 (D+37.5) Butler – $5,617.03 UNCONTESTED DEMOCRAT
HD 83 (D+15.5) Mitten* – $34,199.57 UNCONTESTED DEMOCRAT
HD 84 (D+37) May – $11,072.42 UNCONTESTED DEMOCRAT
HD 86 (D+36.5) Adams – $35,581.16 UNCONTESTED DEMOCRAT
HD 87 (D+10.8) Newman – $29,091.12 UNCONTESTED DEMOCRAT
HD 88 (D+5) McCreery* – $59,503.22 UNCONTESTED DEMOCRAT
HD 118 (D+6.9) Harris – $18,161.85 UNCONTESTED DEMOCRAT
*Denotes incumbent with a 3rd party challenger.
**Razer is unopposed, and will be a freshman.
All pictures courtesy of the candidate, Facebook, or the Missouri Times.