Betting markets offer alternative gauge of Missouri contests
While many point to polls to see how candidates are faring during a campaign, some also look towards betting markets. These markets tend to focus on who will win, rather than the margin of victory.
One prediction site, PredictIt, features three races in Missouri: the presidential race, the U.S. Senate race and the race for governor. In all of the races, the markets seem to reflect conventional wisdom about where the races are at.
In the governor’s race, Attorney General Chris Koster seems to have built a consistent lead. He especially has built momentum over the last couple of weeks.
As of yesterday, Koster share’s were going for about 68 cents, compared to Greitens shares at 35 cents. But as recently as Aug. 17, the two candidates were tied at 52 cents.
While the governor’s race has had its share of swings, it’s betting market has been relatively sleepy compared to action in the U.S. Senate race. In that race, the question isn’t who will win, but will Sen. Roy Blunt be reelected?
So far the betting markets seem to be saying yes. Currently, yes shares are going for about 69 cents. For the past month, Blunts shares have mostly hung in the high 60s and low 70s, indicating that most bettors seem to think Blunt will win.
But the candidate doing best in Missouri, according to the betting markets? Donald Trump, the Republican nominee for president. Despite polls showing a tight race in the state between Trump and Hillary Clinton, Trump’s betting market in the state has consistently been above 70 cents. He currently sits at 74 cents.
So while the margin of victory may be in doubt, most bettors seem to think Trump will win Missouri.
*Share prices reflect end of trading prices for Aug. 31