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2016 House Tip Sheet: July 2016

  

The 20 Hottest Primaries in the State

#1 HD 17 Republicans: Rep. Nick King vs. Mary Hill TOSS UP
This race has been the hottest primary since the ink was dry on the filing papers. It’s an inter-squad war over Right-to-Work, what it means and who is for it. Rep. King who is opposed to RTW won a tough swing seat for Republicans in a good Republican year, likely because he was opposed to RTW. Mary Hill is a nurse and probably the most pro-right-to-work person in the entire state. She has been doing everything possible on the ground and has seen plenty of support from anti-labor interests. Many thought this primary would be a blowout, but Rep. King is proving incumbents are very difficult to defeat and enters the last two weeks in a very close race.

  • Rep. Nick King
    Cash on Hand: $70,060.46
    Raised this Quarter: $40,226.00
    Raised this Cycle: $81,603.64
  • Mary Hill
    Cash on Hand: $52,487.94
    Raised this Quarter: $58,820.00
    Raised this Cycle: $59,393.62

#2 HD 65 Republicans: Adam Schnelting vs. Tom Hannegan TOSS UP
The race to replace Rep. Anne Zerr in the house is on a razor-thin margin. Hannegan started with a more traditional St. Charles community backing while Schnelting has more of the new and more conservative backers. It’s just a tight race, but the real winner of it may be Zerr as a big turnout in her House district will be helpful in her Senate primary.

  • Adam Schnelting
    Cash on Hand: $9,265.30
    Raised this Quarter: $6,102.00
    Raised this Cycle: $33,920.43
  • Tom Hannegan
    Cash on Hand: $23,950.10
    Raised this Quarter: $1,430.00
    Raised this Cycle: $52,906.78

#3 HD 80 Democrats: Peter Merideth vs. Ben Murray LEAN MERIDETH
You want drama, this South City race to replace Rep. Colona has plenty of it. It’s really broken down to traditional labor supporters versus newer, more liberal Democrats, oh and throw in the never boring Alderwoman Megan Green. It’s kind of Clinton vs. Sanders broken down into a House primary. Merideth is the marginal favorite with Rep. Colona’s support, but this race will be close until election day.

  • Peter Merideth
    Cash on Hand: $42,416.65
    Raised this Quarter: $30,507.73
    Raised this Cycle: $85,480.64
  • Ben Murray
    Cash on Hand: $41,634.26
    Raised this Quarter: $7,990.00
    Raised this Cycle: $53,722.24

#4 HD 106 Republicans: Rep. Chrissy Sommer vs. Mary West LEAN SOMMER
Another Republican incumbent spending big money in a close race that probably boils down to the party’s civil war on Right-to-Work. Sommer initially won a special election and is having to run an all-out campaign to return this summer. It’s her race to lose right now, but this is a very close race, and the result will be in doubt throughout the last two weeks.

  • Rep. Chrissy Sommer
    Cash on Hand: $46,294.76
    Raised this Quarter: $11,970.00
    Raised this Cycle: $54,661.37
  • Mary West
    Cash on Hand: $40,149.50
    Raised this Quarter: $40,750.00
    Raised this Cycle: $44,345.00

#5 HD 99 Republicans: Jean Evans vs. Richard LaViolette vs. Phillip Oehlerking vs. Nicholas Gerth LEAN EVANS
This race is a typical suburban trench fight with multiple candidates, all of whom are capable and are running active campaigns. Jean Evans is doing a little more than the rest on most fronts and has raised more money than the others. This is a primary where an interest group could come in and tip the balance. It’s certainly a lean because it wouldn’t take much to swing the race. If it does, Gerth is likely the next in line, but while Oehlerking is young he has been dedicated to doing his doors, and could come from behind. On a side note whether Oehlerking pulls it off or not he will be a name to become familiar with as his campaign impressed many in St. Louis Republican circles.

  • Jean Evans
    Cash on Hand: $19,872.66
    Raised this Quarter: $18,364.00
    Raised this Cycle: $24,664.00
  • Nicholas Gerth
    Cash on Hand: $10,867.38
    Raised this Quarter: $5,800.00
    Raised this Cycle: $12,046.00
  • Richard LaViolette
    Cash on Hand: $505.28
    Raised this Quarter: $200.00
    Raised this Cycle: $400.00
  • Phillip Oehlerking
    Cash on Hand: $4,479.79
    Raised this Quarter: $2,170.00
    Raised this Cycle: $7,100.00

#6 HD 119 Greg Pugh vs. Nate Tate vs. Ron Blum LEAN BLUM
This is one of the closest races this summer. Blum has run the best campaign and should be outpacing Tate, but there are a number of factors that could flip this race. It’s not over by any stretch but Blum is in the best position two weeks out.

  • Ron Blum
    Cash on Hand: $12,496.39
    Raised this Quarter: $11,705.00
    Raised this Cycle: $22,134.74
  • Nate Tate
    Cash on Hand: $1,051.24
    Raised this Quarter: $10,072.00
    Raised this Cycle: $13,529.41
  • Greg Pugh
    Cash on Hand: $1,757.37
    Raised this Quarter: $3,455.00
    Raised this Cycle: $4,355.00

#7 HD 101 Republicans: Joy Krieger vs. Bruce DeGroot vs. Anne Gassel vs. Noreen McCann LEAN MCCANN
Just like in the 99th, this is another suburban district with multiple good candidates. A good deal of the Republican establishment is behind McCann, but look for her to be pushed right up until the end by Joy Krieger. And you can’t count out DeGroot who could put in enough money to make the result unpredictable. Either way, you would rather be McCann than the field at this point.

  • Noreen McCann
    Cash on Hand: $21,251.39
    Raised this Quarter: $21,500.00
    Raised this Cycle: $30,990.00
  • Joy Krieger
    Cash on Hand: $5,152.68
    Raised this Quarter: $4,684.91
    Raised this Cycle: $9,749.65
  • Bruce DeGroot
    Cash on Hand: $9,222.00
    Raised this Quarter: $5,222.00
    Raised this Cycle: $9,222.00
  • Anne Gassel
    Cash on Hand: $5,448.94
    Raised this Quarter: $6,900
    Raised this Cycle: $8,933

#8 HD 108 Republicans: Rep. Justin Hill vs. Jeff Schwentker LEAN HILL
Rep. Hill’s ongoing fight with the firefighters union is what is making this race hot. They have got behind Schwentker in a big way and are pushing him. With the events surrounding first responders, they are making an even bigger impact on the doorstep then normal. Hill, who has been a cop himself, should win, but this is a legit primary and he will have to keep working until the polls close to return to Jeff City.

  • Rep. Justin Hill
    Cash on Hand: $73,907.78
    Raised this Quarter: $63,271.00
    Raised this Cycle: $113,580.29
  • Jeff Schwentker
    Cash on Hand: $1,288.20
    Raised this Quarter: $8,535.00
    Raised this Cycle: $9,027.72

#9 HD 19 Democrats: Manny Abarca vs. Ingrid Burnett LEAN BURNETT
This is a generational race in Kansas City. Burnett is a former teacher who has most of the old school institutional support and has been elected to the Kansas City School Board. Abarca is a younger hard-charger who has served on the staffs of Congressman Emanuel Cleaver and Mike Talboy. Burnett is the front-runner, but Abarca could win this race.

  • Ingrid Burnett
    Cash on Hand: $13,147.22
    Raised this Quarter: $8,753.35
    Raised this Cycle: $23,183.35
  • Manny Abarca
    Cash on Hand: $5,821.67
    Raised this Quarter: $4,190.00
    Raised this Cycle: $27,976.59

#10 HD 96 Republicans: David Gregory vs. Dan Reuter LEAN GREGORY
The race to replace Rep. Mike Leara will be one of the closest races in the state as Gregory has outraised Reuter and has had a good ground game that probably has outpaced Reuter’s. Reuter is older and has deeper roots personally in the district. If Gregory closes well, then he is the favorite, but Reuter has a lot of opportunities to close the gap.

  • David Gregory
    Cash on Hand: $10,636.02
    Raised this Quarter: $2,000.00
    Raised this Cycle: $67,808.69
  • Dan Reuter
    Cash on Hand: $23,843.95
    Raised this Quarter: $12,830.00
    Raised this Cycle:$40,197.43

#11 HD 107 Republicans: Nick Schroer vs. Rick Lucas LEAN SCHROER
Schroer has been working the hardest on the ground and Rep. Robert Cornejo’s brother-in-law has been raising money much better than Lucas. Those two items are what has seen this race move down the list and lean to Schroer. While still close, Schroer has established himself as the clear front-runner in the final two weeks.

  • Nick Schroer
    Cash on Hand: $23,002.47
    Raised this Quarter: $13,030.00
    Raised this Cycle: $30,700.00
  • Rick Lucas
    Cash on Hand: $816.01
    Raised this Quarter: $0.00
    Raised this Cycle: $0.00

#12 HD 133 Republicans: Curtis Trent vs. Matthew Sims vs. David Cort vs. Mike Goodart LEAN TRENT
The race to replace Rep. Eric Burlison is actually closer than what the fundraising numbers show. Curtis Trent is a former staffer of Congressman Billy Long and is the front-runner, but Matthew Sims is probably better on the campaign trail while Cort and Goodart are both running credible campaigns. The race will see $200,000 raised and spent by the candidates and we put Trent in the lead because he will spend roughly half of that himself.

  • Curtis Trent
    Cash on Hand: $76,926.42
    Raised this Quarter: $1,420.00
    Raised this Cycle: $89,945.04
  • Matthew Sims
    Cash on Hand: $22,203.50
    Raised this Quarter: $6,500.00
    Raised this Cycle: $28,074.00
  • David Cort
    Cash on Hand: $2,481.78
    Raised this Quarter: $2,290.00
    Raised this Cycle: $22,140.00
  • Mike Goodart
    Cash on Hand: $7,168.04
    Raised this Quarter: $7,929.00
    Raised this Cycle: $23,299.00

#13 HD 14 Rep. Kevin Corlew vs. Sean Pouche LIKELY CORLEW
This is the hot primary that just never materialized. Corlew hit all of his doors, and raised the money to put himself as the clear favorite in the primary. If the race were to tighten, we hear there are some baggage issues his opponent has that may surface. No rest for Corlew coming though, because he will advance from this primary that never really developed into one of the most competitive general election races in the state.

  • Rep. Kevin Corlew
    Cash on Hand: $96,071.07
    Raised this Quarter: $53,335.00
    Raised this Cycle: $126,457.36
  • Sean Pouche
    Cash on Hand: $13,581.83
    Raised this Quarter: $31,600.00
    Raised this Cycle: $36,252.71

#14 HD 73 Democrats: Rep. Courtney Curtis vs. Daniel Wibracht vs. Eileen McGeoghegan LIKELY CURTIS
Curtis did everything he could to tick off the Democratic party, and it resulted in him getting enough primary opponents that probably ensured his re-election. If that wasn’t enough, Democratic fundraiser David Humphreys dumped $50,000 into his coffers. This race has been slipping down the list and that likely means Curtis gets re-elected. However, when he gets around to filing it, look for his MEC report to be the most scrutinized in the state.

  • Rep. Courtney Curtis
    Cash on Hand: No report filed
    Raised this Quarter:
    Raised this Cycle:
  • Eileen McGeoghegan
    Cash on Hand: $2,405.63
    Raised this Quarter: $2,790.00
    Raised this Cycle: $3,776.75
  • Daniel Wibracht
    Cash on Hand: $6,843.43
    Raised this Quarter: $6,810.00
    Raised this Cycle: $11,566.00

#15 HD 111 Republicans: Rep. Shane Roden vs. Ryan Jones vs. Jason Jarvis vs. Gary Bonacker vs. Tammy Orzel LIKELY RODEN
Roden likely won this race on filing day with four primary opponents filed against him. He has done a good job raising money, and none of his opponents have stepped out from the pack to consolidate opposition against him.

  • Rep. Shane Roden
    Cash on Hand: $47,816.72
    Raised this Quarter: $24,801.47
    Raised this Cycle: $113,504.50
  • Ryan Jones
    Cash on Hand: $341.25
    Raised this Quarter: $445.75
    Raised this Cycle: $770.75
  • Jason Jarvis
    Cash on Hand: $231.75
    Raised this Quarter: $1,627.52
    Raised this Cycle: $7,797.66
  • Gary Bonacker
    Cash on Hand: $3,019.00
    Raised this Quarter: $2,218.00
    Raised this Cycle: $5,129.00
  • Tammy Orzel
    Cash on Hand: $478.53
    Raised this Quarter: $500.00
    Raised this Cycle: $600.00

#16 HD 77 Democrats: Steve Roberts vs. Jesse Todd vs. John Collins-Muhammad vs. Brian Elsesser LEAN ROBERTS
This race will be close as John Collins-Muhammad has done his doors and then some, but Steve Roberts has ran a solid campaign and is well outpacing the field in fundraising. Collins-Muhammad is making a strong showing and will clearly be a name Democrats could tap in the future, but two weeks out Roberts is the favorite.

  • Steve Roberts
    Cash on Hand: $20,108.68
    Raised this Quarter: $19,264.21
    Raised this Cycle: $56,163.21
  • John Collins-Muhammad
    Cash on Hand: $286.17
    Raised this Quarter: $1,952.00
    Raised this Cycle: $2,347.00
  • Brian Elsesser
    Cash on Hand: $863.39
    Raised this Quarter: $2,461.00
    Raised this Cycle: $5,847.00

#17 HD 27 Democrats Rep. Bonnaye Mims vs. Richard Brown LEAN MIMS
Mims seems to always have news coming out of her district. The school board has recruited her some enemies, and her race is always close, as it was last cycle. This race is a legitimate primary, but look for her to win in a close race again, especially considering her opponent’s finances.

  • Rep. Bonnaye Mims
    Cash on Hand: $47,433.08
    Raised this Quarter: $14,769.01
    Raised this Cycle: $52,058.64
  • Richard Brown
    Cash on Hand: $275.21
    Raised this Quarter: $4,475.00
    Raised this Cycle: $5,025.00

#18 HD 100 Republicans Mike Allen vs. Derek Grier LIKELY ALLEN
Rep. Sue Allen’s husband, Mike Allen, is the clear favorite, but his opponent Derek Grier hasn’t gotten the message, as he is working his doors and raising a respectable amount of money. Allen should win, but Grier has done enough work to put this race on the list.

  • Mike Allen
    Cash on Hand: $29,279.70
    Raised this Quarter: $4,615.00
    Raised this Cycle: $52,468.32
  • Derek Grier
    Cash on Hand: $15,197.37
    Raised this Quarter: $10,131.06
    Raised this Cycle: $17,374.37

#19 HD 78 Democrats Rep. Penny Hubbard vs. Bruce Franks LIKELY HUBBARD
Every election, someone runs against a Hubbard in St. Louis, and nearly every time the Hubbards win. She has a real opponent who is running a ground game, but as usual, look for her to win.

  • Rep. Penny Hubbard
    Cash on Hand: $6,606.42
    Raised this Quarter: $23,000.00
    Raised this Cycle: $189,614.61
  • Bruce Franks
    Cash on Hand: No report filed
    Raised this Quarter:
    Raised this Cycle:

#20 HD 143 Republicans Rep. Jeff Pogue vs. Bobby Simpson LIKELY POGUE
This race nearly snuck under the radar, likely because its in rural southeast Missouri. While it’s close, and at one time Pogue looked like he could be in trouble, he seems to be in a position to win re-election. However, this race could get more unpredictable because it’s hard to get a read on this district. Going into the last two weeks, look for the incumbent to win, as they typically do.

  • Rep. Jeff Pogue
    Cash on Hand: $16,853.38
    Raised this Quarter: $500.00
    Raised this Cycle: $4,556.49
  • Bobby Simpson
    Cash on Hand: $2,406.01
    Raised this Quarter: $10,051.00
    Raised this Cycle: $14,651.00