Final Tip Sheet: Statewide Offices

   

GOVERNOR: TOSS UP

Latest Missouri Times Poll: Koster 45% – Greitens 46%

The biggest race in the state comes down to the margin of error at the end, as it should. Koster has done everything possible to outrun a toxic national party and he’s 15 points ahead of Hillary Clinton, but will it be enough? Greitens took some time to get his sea legs under him but has run a great race in the closing weeks.

For three cycles, Republicans have ended Democrats’ careers on Barack Obama and Obamacare. Once Greitens began hitting Koster for switching out Hillary Clinton for Barack Obama and Obamacare, the race tightened. Will Obamacare and the national ticket defeat another Missouri Democrat, or will the NRA and Farm Bureau be enough to inoculate Koster from the toxicity of Obamacare? We’ll know Tuesday night.

(D) Attorney General Chris Koster

Chriskoster.com @Koster4Missouri

  • Contributions this period: $4,479,572.67
  • Contributions this election: $27,550,445.44
  • Cash on hand: $2,147,275.96

(R) Eric Greitens

Ericgreitens.com @EricGreitens

  • Contributions this period: $9,394,708.00
  • Contributions this election: $17,847,731.00
  • Cash on hand: $3,008,678.93

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR: TOSS UP

Latest Missouri Times Poll: Carnahan 44% – Parson 43%

For the first time in a generation, it looks like down ticket Republicans have the momentum. Sen. Parson is outspending Carnahan, hitting him on Obamacare, while the Humane Society is swinging away at the pro-agriculture Parson and Koster on animal rights issues.

It’s close. Will Republican momentum and a financial advantage push Parson past a member of a Missouri political dynasty and a former member of congress? Right now, it’s too close to call.

(D) Former U.S. Rep. Russ Carnahan

www.russcarnahan.us @russcarnahan

  • Contributions this period: $425,755.16
  • Contributions this election: $1,488,692.26
  • Cash on hand: $121,388.62

(R) Sen. Mike Parson

www.mikeparson.com @MikeParsonForMO

  • Contributions this period: $434,496.00
  • Contributions this election: $982,515.40
  • Cash on hand: $281,968.22

ATTORNEY GENERAL: LIKELY HAWLEY

Latest Missouri Times Poll: Hawley 48% – Hensley 42%

Hawley is simply good at running for office. Hensley has a far better resume and is running a good campaign. However, Hawley has amassed a huge money advantage and looks primed to ride a Republican wave to the Attorney General’s office.

(D) Teresa Hensley

www.teresahensley.com @VoteHensley

  • Contributions this period: $1,328,870.77
  • Contributions this election: $3,787,594.66
  • Cash on hand: $85,019.64

(R) Josh Hawley

Joshhawley.com @HawleyMO

  • Contributions this period: $675,901.00
  • Contributions this election: $4,039,408.19
  • Cash on hand: $1,288,988.74

SECRETARY OF STATE:  LIKELY ASHCROFT

Latest Missouri Times Poll: Ashcroft 48% – Smith 38%

Ashcroft looks primed to lead the ticket. His ads look good and he looks like he is establishing the second generation of Republican political dynasty. You’re not reading the numbers wrong; it looks like his opponent isn’t spending a huge chunk of her money.

(D) Robin Smith

www.robinsmith.com @WithRobinSmith

  • Contributions this period: $34,674.77
  • Contributions this election: $638,395.70
  • Cash on hand: $359,317.70

(R) Jay Ashcroft

Ashcroftformissouri.com @JayAshcroftMO

  • Contributions this period: $413,017.66
  • Contributions this election: $1,674,463.59
  • Cash on hand: $186,653.30

STATE TREASURER: LIKELY SCHMITT

Latest Missouri Times Poll: Schmitt 49% – Baker 40%

Schmitt has built a strong fundraising network and has a high degree of name ID, thanks to his time as a state senator. He is hammering Baker on her work with Obamacare in the state, and is able to outspend her five or six to one. Without a significant change in the political climate likely at a national level, Schmitt has the advantage heading into election day.  

(D) Former Rep. Judy Baker

www.showmebaker.com @JudyBaker4MO

  • Contributions this period: $189,608.77
  • Contributions this election: $342,130.93
  • Cash on hand: $95,405.47

(R) Sen. Eric Schmitt

Schmittformissouri.com @Eric_Schmitt

  • Contributions this period: $188,079.14
  • Contributions this election: $365,333.84
  • Cash on hand: $1,016,037.32