JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. – In a new Missouri Times poll released Wednesday, Republicans, including Republican gubernatorial nominee Eric Greitens are up. Donald Trump is up over Hillary Clinton by 12 points in the race for the White House, while Senator Roy Blunt is up 4 points over Secretary of State Jason Kander for U.S. Senate.
In a small-sample Monmouth University poll released Tuesday, the U.S. Senate race remained tight. Incumbent Roy Blunt held a 47% to 46% lead over Kander. Another 2% say they will vote for Libertarian Jonathan Dine. Blunt held a 48% to 43% lead over Kander in August, which narrowed to a 46% to 44% edge in mid-October. In terms of straight-ticket voting, the same poll showed Kander holds onto more Clinton supporters (90%) than Blunt is of Trump voters (79%). In October, Kander got the vote of 82% of Clinton backers while Blunt kept 80% of Trump voters.
The gubernatorial race, which has been mostly consistently close in internal and external polls throughout the cycle, Wednesday showed Greitens over Democrat Chris Koster. Previously, Greitens has been shown within the margin of error but not up over the Attorney General in Missouri Times polling conducted by Remington Research.
“Coattails, coattails, coattails,” said Remington Research’s Titus Bond. “Republicans across the country have been running away from Donald Trump. In Missouri, they are running towards him with open arms. Looking at this data you can definitely see why. As goes Trump will go the ticket in Missouri. If Trump wins by more than ten it will be a clean sweep for Republicans in Missouri.”
Greitens’ campaign manager, who had previously discounted Missouri Times’ commissioned polling, stood by the poll as showing “momentum.”
“There’s a lot of work left to do, but clearly, momentum is with us,” Austin Chambers, Greitens’ campaign manager, said. “A week ago this poll had us down, now we are leading. Voters are choosing Eric Greitens, a conservative outsider, over Chris Koster, a crooked career politician who wants to expand Obamacare. It’s just that simple.”
A source close to Koster campaign said they fully expected the race to tighten in polls.
“Everything is going according to plan,” said the source. “We always knew this election would be close.”
Other polls also show Koster and Greitens close, with the majority showing Koster with a slight majority. At one point in time, Koster was 16 points over Greitens.
In an ongoing survey, Survey Monkey has Koster up 6, 52-46, in their latest 7-day average.
Survey conducted October 31 through November 1, 2016. 1,722 likely 2016 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2016 General Election. Margin of error is +/- 2.36% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of The Missouri Times.
Q: The candidates in the General Election for President of the United States are the Republican Donald Trump, the Democrat Hillary Clinton the Libertarian Gary Johnson, Constitution Party candidate Darrell Castle and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
- Donald Trump: 51%
- Hillary Clinton: 39%
- Gary Johnson: 4%
- Darrell Castle: 1%
- Jill Stein: 1%
- Undecided: 4%
Q: The candidates in the General Election for United States Senate are the Republican Roy Blunt, the Democrat Jason Kander, the Libertarian Jonathan Dine, Constitution Party candidate Fred Ryman and Green Party candidate Johnathan McFarland. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
- Roy Blunt: 48%
- Jason Kander: 44%
- Jonathan Dine: 1%
- Fred Ryman: 1%
- Johnathan McFarland: 1%
- Undecided: 5%
Q: The candidates in the General Election for Governor are the Democrat Chris Koster, the Republican Eric Greitens, the Libertarian Cisse Spragins, Green Party candidate Don Fitz and Independent Lester Turilli. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
- Chris Koster: 45%
- Eric Greitens: 46%
- Cisse Spragins: 2%
- Don Fitz: 1%
- Lester Turilli: 1%
- Undecided: 4%
Rachael Herndon was the editor at The Missouri Times and also produced This Week in Missouri Politics, published Missouri Times Magazine, and co-hosted the #MoLeg podcast. She joined The Missouri Times in 2014, returning to political reporting after working as a campaign and legislative staffer.
Rachael studied at the University of Missouri – Columbia. She lives in Jefferson City with her husband, Brandon, and their two children.