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POLL: Koster, Trump lead in Missouri; lt. gov. too close to call

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. – Attorney General Chris Koster extended his lead in the Missouri governor’s race while Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump lost some of his lead after a difficult two weeks for his campaign.

After dropping 13 points over the last two polls, Koster bounced back to a six point lead this week. His 48-42 lead is outside of the poll’s 2 point margin of error. Another 5 percent of voters said they were undecided.

In the presidential contest, Trump lost ground from the last Missouri Times poll two weeks ago. His 10 point lead is now a 5 point lead.

The poll was taken Oct. 9–11, after Sunday’s presidential debate and after a video was released last Friday with Trump making vulgar comments about women. That video saw Clinton’s lead rise nationally and locally as some Republican leaders, including Congresswoman Ann Wagner, unendorsed the businessman.

Trump leads Clinton 47-42 with 5 percent of voters undecided.

Also polled this week, state Sen. Mike Parson, R-Bolivar, trails former Congressman Russ Carnahan by just one point, within the margin of error, in their battle for the lieutenant governorship. Carnahan leads Parson 44-43 and 8 percent of voters are undecided.

It seemed like Carnahan’s name ID would help him coming into the race, but Parson’s strong rural roots have buoyed him against the political scion.

The poll results show that split-ticket voting could be likely in the state, with Koster leading the governor’s race and Trump leading in the presidential race.

Trump’s five-point lead represents the line where observers think there could be a down-ballot effect. More than five points and Republicans do well, while less than 5 points could be a good sign for Democrats, the thinking goes. Some politicos believe the lead for Trump, specifically, needs to be closer to 10 points to have a strong down-ballot impact. 

This week, Remington Research Group surveyed 2,171 likely voters for the Missouri Times.

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