State Senate Tipsheet: October 2026

This cycle features two highly competitive Senate races in SD 8 and SD 30, both of which could have significant implications for the balance of power in the Missouri Senate. Beyond those two contests, SD 24 and SD 34 stand out as notable races to keep an eye on.

SD 30: Stinnett and Fogle Square Off in Springfield 

If there’s one Senate race that has a little bit of everything this fall, it’s SD 30.

Two familiar faces in the House, plenty of campaign cash, Amendment 3 and a Libertarian candidate are all in the mix as Rep. Melanie Stinnett and Rep. Betsy Fogle compete to replace Sen. Lincoln Hough.

Stinnett has spent her first two terms building a name for herself in Jefferson City, particularly on healthcare issues.

Since being elected she’s made disability services and access to care a focus of her work. She’s also picked up endorsements from the Missouri Nurses Association, Missouri Medical PAC, NFIB and several law enforcement groups.

Money shouldn’t be an issue for Stinnett. Her campaign and Heart of SGF PAC have just over $1 million combined on hand.

Fogle has made her own mark in Springfield. She flipped a Republican-held House seat in 2020 and has held it ever since, giving Democrats a foothold in a city where Republicans have traditionally done well.

Before heading to the Capitol, Fogle worked at Jordan Valley Community Health Center, helping families find healthcare, housing and other services. Her legislative work has carried that focus forward, with an emphasis on healthcare, education and affordability. In her latest campaign finance report, she also reported a contribution from outgoing Sen. Lincoln Hough.

The Fogle name carries some weight in Springfield, too. Her family has deep roots in the city, and that kind of name recognition can go a long way in a local race.

Fogle and her affiliated Forward PAC reported nearly $923,000 combined on hand, giving her a substantial campaign war chest of her own.

The two candidates have some common ground. Both came to politics through healthcare, and both have made family issues a part of their work in the legislature. But the race could turn on factors beyond their records and campaign accounts.

One of those is Amendment 3.

As Tom Estes pointed out on This Week in Missouri Politics, there are a lot of churches in SD 30. With abortion back on the ballot, how religious communities respond could be worth watching as voters head to the polls.

Then there’s Cecil Ince, the Libertarian candidate. Third-party candidates can be tough to gauge in a race like this. Some voters unhappy with Republicans may look elsewhere, while others who aren’t sold on Democrats could do the same. Whether Ince draws enough support to affect the race is an open question.

Fogle appears to be in a strong position heading into the final weeks, but there’s plenty of talk on the trail that Stinnett is closing the gap. The race is drawing more attention as outside groups get involved, including Will of the People, which has launched attacks against Stinnett.

With Amendment 3 also on the ballot and Libertarian Cecil Ince in the race, the final stretch could get interesting as both campaigns make their last push to win over Springfield voters.

Rep. Melanie Stinnett

Cash In: $121,438.03

Cash Out: $250,229.05

Candidate Loans: $250,745.32

Cash on Hand: $351,434.37

Heart of SGF PAC

Cash In: $309,901.00

Cash Out: $0.00

Cash on Hand: $651,764.48

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $1,003,198.85

Rep. Betsy Fogle

Cash In: $183,380.27

Cash Out: $240,234.03

Cash on Hand: $284,945.07

Forward PAC

Cash In: $352,750.00

Cash Out: $116,030.58

Cash on Hand: $637,906.31

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $922,851.38

SD 8: Ingle and Patterson Lock Horns in Lees Summit 

If you want to understand how suburban politics has changed in Missouri over the past decade, Lee’s Summit is a good place to start.

Once a reliable part of the Republican coalition in eastern Jackson County, the city has become more competitive as Democrats have made gains across the suburbs. That shift sets the stage for the race to replace term-limited Sen. Mike Cierpiot, with House Speaker Jon Patterson and Rep. Keri Ingle competing for the seat.

Speaker Patterson brings the advantages of a well-funded campaign and an established political operation. The Lee’s Summit Republican has Axiom Strategies behind him and has built a substantial financial network. He also has endorsements from Americans for Prosperity, the Missouri Fraternal Order of Police, the Missouri Sheriffs’ Association, the Police Chiefs Legislative Coalition, the Missouri State Medical Association, NFIB and the Home Builders Association of Greater Kansas City. The Teamsters have also endorsed Patterson, while KC BizPAC has backed both candidates.

Patterson’s positions on some politically sensitive issues don’t always fit neatly with every faction of his party. That could matter in a district where some voters are comfortable supporting Republicans but have shown a willingness to split their tickets.

Ingle has demonstrated her ability to win in the suburbs. She flipped a Republican-held House seat in 2018 and has held it through a period of Democratic gains in Lee’s Summit and surrounding communities. With a background in social work, her legislative priorities have included education, healthcare and family issues.

She has also assembled a broad coalition of endorsements, including the Missouri AFL-CIO, Greater Kansas City AFL-CIO, Missouri State Council of Fire Fighters, Missouri State Teachers Association, Missouri Nurses Association PAC, Planned Parenthood Great Plains Votes, Abortion Action Missouri PAC, Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund and the Sierra Club.

Numerous labor unions and regional advocacy groups have also lined up behind her.

Amendment 3 could add another wrinkle.

Missouri voters approved abortion-rights protections in 2024, and results in parts of Lee’s Summit showed how suburban voters can split their tickets. Some supported abortion rights while continuing to vote Republican in other races.

The 2026 proposal would repeal those protections, add exceptions and address gender-related medical treatment for minors. For some suburban households, the transgender provisions could be a significant factor in how they vote on the amendment, even if they otherwise support candidates on both sides of the aisle.

It’s possible a household could vote yes on Amendment 3 because of concerns about transgender issues while still backing Ingle in the Senate race. The amendment and the candidates are separate choices, and voters who split their tickets could make the results harder to read.

Two House races are unfolding in the same political environment. In HD 30, Republican Jeff Martin is facing Democrat Kevin Grover for the seat Patterson is leaving. In HD 35, Republican Jacquie Stenger and Democrat Michael Scott are competing to succeed Ingle. The candidates could also serve as local voices for their respective Senate contenders, connecting the legislative races to the broader contest.

The financial picture gives Patterson a sizable advantage. Ingle and her affiliated PACs reported nearly $550,000 combined on hand, compared with more than $2.1 million for Patterson and Missouri Alliance PAC.

Patterson has the resources, organization and backing of business and law enforcement groups. Ingle brings a record of winning in the suburbs and support from organized labor, educators and advocacy organizations.

In a district where partisan loyalties and ballot-measure preferences don’t always line up, the Senate race could offer another test of how far ticket-splitting extends in suburban Missouri.

Rep. Keri Ingle

Cash In: $103,612.52

Cash Out: $209,952.97

Cash on Hand: $267,011.85

KERI PAC

Cash In: $203,400.00

Cash Out: $57,200.00

Cash on Hand: $282,662.00

Summit Leadership PAC

Cash on Hand: Limited Activity

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $549,673.85

House Speaker Jon Patterson 

Cash In: $207,845.00

Cash Out: $433,704.46

Cash on Hand: $455,892.08

Missouri Alliance PAC

Cash In: $63,900.00

Cash Out: $634,494.83

Cash on Hand: $1,663,303.59

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $2,119,197.67

SD 34: Jones Takes the Open Seat, but the Margin Bears Watching

Rep. Mike Jones (insert obligatory “Who?”) emerged from a crowded Republican primary with a decisive victory over Rep. Sean Pouche and businessman Ryan Gerster, taking 62% of the vote. His move to the Senate race also spared him what had been shaping up to be an extremely difficult House reelection campaign in HD 12, a district where Republicans faced a much tougher political environment. Instead of defending that seat, Jones now enters the general election with a clear financial advantage and the backing of Beverly PAC. Together, his campaign and the PAC have nearly $465,000 in cash on hand. Jones also has the backing of Axiom Strategies which are no strangers to the 34th and its politics.

Barnes brings her own background in public service to the race. She serves on the Park Hill School Board, has worked in health care and education, and has emphasized public schools, access to health care and affordability. She won the Democratic primary with 70% of the vote against Pam May, giving her a clear path to the general election. Democrats could have made this a more serious contest with a higher-profile recruit such as Ashley Aune, but Barnes now carries the party’s hopes in a district that still leans Republican.

Jones remains positioned to take over for term-limited Sen. Tony Luetkemeyer, but the political environment could make the race more competitive than some Republicans expected. The financial gap is enormous, and Barnes faces a steep climb, yet Democrats may have room to narrow the margin even if flipping the seat remains a difficult task.

Rep. Mike Jones
Cash In: $124,203.50
Cash Out: $4,707.73
Cash on Hand: $218,946.11
Beverly PAC
Cash In: $166,826.51
Cash Out: $32,290.50
Cash on Hand: $245,664.88
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $464,610.99

Shereka Barnes

Cash In: $8,216.85

Cash Out: $15,590.43

Cash on Hand: $3,831.10

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $3,831.10

SD 24: McCreery Seeks Re-Election

Lavanna Wrobley is a strong candidate who could easily have a future in Republican politics, and this race offers an opportunity to build name recognition and establish herself with voters. However, running against Senator Tracy McCreery in the current political environment presents a significant challenge. McCreery still remains one of the democrats most talented legislators and she is enjoying both incumbency and an environment keen on punishing Republicans.

As things stand, this race remains firmly in McCreery’s favor. Lavanna has the potential to be a serious contender in future cycles, but this year’s environment and McCreery’s position make a Republican upset unlikely

Sen. Tracy McCreery

Cash In: $126,961.49

Cash Out: $148,162.49

Candidate Loans: $111,000.00

Cash on Hand: $426,263.52

Serve Missouri

Cash In: $110,450.00

Cash Out: $116,636.89

Cash on Hand: $274,676.21

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $700,939.73

LaVanna Wrobley

Cash In: $6,921.15

Cash Out: $3,374.75

Cash on Hand: $19,459.78

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $19,459.78