The Dirty Dozen: Top 12 House Races to Watch in 2026

Missouri Republicans look to be on the defensive this cycle, with several House and Senate races shaping up as competitive contests for Democrats. There are plenty of races worth watching, but here are 12 that I’ll have my eye on Election Night, contests that could offer an early look at where Missouri’s political trends are headed.

HD 96: Christ Faces Tough Fight Yet

RPI: 47.01%

This is easily the top House race to watch this cycle for a number of reasons.

First, Brad Christ has become one of the more prominent Republican legislators in the House and has carried substantial legislation over the last few years, including the effort to return control of the St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department to a state-appointed board. Second, Christ is making a run for Majority Floor Leader, putting an entirely different level of importance on whether he returns to Jefferson City in January.

And finally, there is the district itself.

HD 96 is one of the stranger political creatures in the Missouri House. Christ has survived multiple general elections in a district where voters have shown themselves perfectly willing to support Democrats further up the ballot. In 2024, voters within the district backed Kamala Harris over Donald Trump by roughly five points and Lucas Kunce over Josh Hawley by nearly nine, while simultaneously supporting Republican Mike Kehoe for governor by more than three points. Christ’s ability to navigate those kinds of ticket splits has made him one of the more interesting Republican campaigners in the state.

What can be said about Christ that hasn’t already been said around the Capitol? He’s a strong communicator, an aggressive campaigner and has become an increasingly important member of the House Republican caucus. Since arriving in Jefferson City in 2022, Christ has moved into the chairmanship of the House Emerging Issues Committee and has played a role in several of the larger negotiations moving through the chamber.

Christ is pursuing the Majority Floor Leader position, with Rep. Jeff Myers also among the members seeking the post. That means Christ isn’t simply campaigning for another term, he is simultaneously working to return to Jefferson City with enough support among his colleagues to take on a much larger role in running the House.

Before he can worry about that race, though, he has to win this one.

And Matt Vitale is a serious challenger.

Vitale is a civil rights and accessibility specialist who has spent much of his professional career working with people with disabilities. He previously worked at the Department of Veterans Affairs helping blind and visually impaired veterans before serving as Lead Accessibility Specialist with the U.S. Department of Education’s Office for Civil Rights, where his work included training attorneys on digital accessibility investigations.

Vitale is campaigning heavily on public education, affordability and government accountability, while Democrats are making HD 96 one of the seats they’re paying attention to this fall. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee has added Vitale to its slate of candidates, and PROMO PAC is among the organizations backing him.

There is also a Libertarian in the race, Shane Ferguson, adding another variable to an already closely watched contest.

For Christ, the argument is straightforward: voters here have already shown a willingness to separate their opinions of national Republicans from their state representative. His campaign is built around doing that again, leaning on his constituent work, legislative record and the campaign organization that has kept him competitive in difficult territory.

Vitale’s opportunity comes from the opposite direction. Democrats know there are already plenty of Democratic voters in HD 96, the presidential and Senate results demonstrated that. His task is translating those voters further down the ballot against a Republican incumbent who has previously demonstrated crossover appeal.

That is what makes the 96th so interesting. Christ isn’t defending a traditional Republican district against a long-shot challenger. He’s a Republican incumbent defending territory that has repeatedly shown Democratic strength at the top of the ballot against a challenger Democrats are actively supporting.

And while plenty of people around Jefferson City are already talking about whether Brad Christ can become the next Majority Floor Leader, Matt Vitale is trying to make sure Christ never gets the opportunity to have that vote

Rep. Brad Christ

Cash In: $12,945.00

Cash Out: $9,378.77

Cash on Hand: $204,851.08

Real Action PAC

Cash In: $7,550.00

Cash Out: $19,624.70

Cash on Hand: 311,981.35

Total Cash on Hand: $516,832.43

Matt Vitale

Cash In: $4,918.00

Cash Out: $2,667.11

Cash on Hand: $26,553.86

Total Cash on Hand: $26,553.86

HD 100: Oehlerking Faces Tough Odds

RPI: 49.02%

If there is one Republican in the St. Louis suburbs who has gotten used to close elections, it’s Phil Oehlerking.

The Ballwin Republican has made a habit out of surviving in one of the more difficult suburban districts Republicans still hold. Two years ago, Oehlerking defeated Democrat Colin Lovett by just 143 votes, 50.3% to 49.7%, in a district where voters were simultaneously showing considerably more Democratic strength further up the ballot.

Oehlerking has already demonstrated an ability to separate himself from the national Republican brand enough to survive a difficult district, and incumbency gives him another two years of constituent work and visibility to run on.

Oehlerking has also developed a somewhat different profile from some of his Republican colleagues in Jefferson City. He has been involved with the bipartisan Future Caucus and has generally focused much of his legislative work around financial institutions, education and economic issues. But after winning his last race by fewer than 150 votes, there isn’t much room for movement before things start getting uncomfortable.

Democrats are hoping Mary Ann Perkins is the candidate who can finally capitalize on that.

Perkins is a St. Louis-area institutional development and fundraising professional who returned to Missouri after spending more than 15 years working internationally, including with the United Nations. She currently works in fundraising at Washington University and became politically active around the fight over abortion rights in Missouri.

Her campaign is leaning heavily into issues where Democrats believe the district’s voters have already separated themselves from the Republican legislature. Perkins has emphasized abortion rights, public education, voting issues and affordability, while pointing specifically to the district’s vote on Missouri’s abortion-rights amendment and other statewide ballot questions.

Democrats are paying attention nationally as well. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee has put its support behind Perkins as part of its effort to pick up seats in Missouri this fall.

There is one more wrinkle here that shouldn’t be overlooked: Libertarian Ken Newhouse is also on the ballot. In a district that was decided by only 143 votes last time around, even a relatively small third-party vote could matter to the final margins.

HD 100 is ultimately another test of the durability of Missouri’s remaining suburban Republican incumbents. The underlying political numbers suggest a district where Democrats have room to compete, but Oehlerking has already shown that the voters here are willing to split their tickets and send him back to Jefferson City.

Perkins’ challenge is turning the district’s Democratic performance further up the ballot into votes in the House race. Oehlerking is convincing those same voters to split their tickets for him one more time.

Considering 143 votes separated the two parties here last cycle, neither side has much margin for error.

Rep. Phil Oehlerking

Cash In: $2,500.00

Cash Out: $1,004.16

Candidate Loans: $4,500.00

Cash on Hand: $60,820.00

West County Leadership PAC

Cash In: n/a

Cash Out: n/a

Cash on Hand: n/a

Total Cash on Hand: $60,820.00

Mary Ann Perkins

Cash In: $4,260.00

Cash Out: $8,638.31

Cash on Hand: $24,928.91

Total Cash on Hand: $24,928.91

HD 30: How Blue can Lees Summit get?

RPI: 49.58%

Lee’s Summit looks to be one of the major epicenters of this cycle, with the competitive State Senate race between Jon Patterson and Keri Ingle shaping much of the political conversation. But both are also leaving behind House seats that will now be up for grabs.

Jeff Martin is a solid name to keep an eye on. A longtime Lee’s Summit-area businessman, Martin is the president of Martin Underground Construction, a company specializing in underground utility and fiber installation, and has spent decades involved in the community through youth sports, schools and local organizations.

Martin has shown an ability to raise money and has the capacity to put his own resources into the race if needed. He’s also impressed enough people around Republican politics that his name is already generating some early chatter about what he could do in Jefferson City if elected. Martin won the Republican primary over former Lee’s Summit Councilwoman Phyllis Edson and now moves into a much different race in November.

On the other side is Kevin Grover, a name voters in this part of Jackson County have seen before. Grover is a retired public school educator and minister from Eastern Jackson County who spent more than 30 years working in Missouri schools.

Grover gave Patterson a competitive race for the seat in 2024 and is now running for the same district without an incumbent on the ballot. Democrats also showed considerable participation in the August primary, but if you know any Jackson County Republican, they’ll tell you that they and probably 10 other people voted in the Democrat primary for the county executive race. That being said, Grover did manage to also pull out more voters than Jon Patterson in his primary back in 2024, so there is some precedent there.

Lee’s Summit has become an increasingly important battleground in Jackson County politics, and HD 30 provides another test of the area’s changing political dynamics. Martin brings a business background, local ties and Republican organizational support to the race, while Grover enters with previous experience campaigning in the district and a career rooted in public education and the community.

With the Patterson-Ingle Senate race unfolding over much of the same political terrain, HD 30 will also provide a look at how much the larger battle for Lee’s Summit affects races further down the ballot.

Jeff Martin

Cash In: $8,704.10

Cash Out: $44,855.62

Cash on Hand: $5,329.79

816 PAC

Cash In: $50.00

Cash Out: $0.00

Cash on Hand: $50.00

Total Cash on Hand: $5,379.79

Kevin Grover
Cash In: $3,640.00
Cash Out: $830.81
Cash on Hand: $35,342.96
Total Cash on Hand: $35,342.96

HD 17: Battle of the Doctors
RPI: 46.13%
This is a race Democrats have been scratching their heads over for quite some time. The Northland district contains a strong union presence, including the Ford Kansas City Assembly Plant and communities such as Claycomo and Pleasant Valley, giving Democrats some of the traditional ingredients they would expect to work in their favor.

Mark Ellebracht held the seat for six years before Republicans rolled out their secret weapon: Dr. Bill Allen. What Kemp Strickler has been for HRCC, Allen has become for Democrats, a candidate who keeps surviving serious challenges and has come out stronger as a result.
Allen knocked off Ellebracht by just 37 votes in 2022 before returning two years later and defeating Democrat Shirley Mata by 639 votes, or roughly 3.7 percentage points.

Since taking office, Allen has worked to position himself as a pragmatic Northland Republican, navigating issues like abortion, healthcare, education and organized labor while representing a politically competitive district. His campaign has also emphasized a broad coalition of support that includes law enforcement, labor, business and conservative organizations.

This time around, Allen’s opponent is another doctor.

Dr. Susan Hoisington is a retired educator and longtime Northland resident who spent nearly 30 years in public education as a classroom teacher, instructional leader and district administrator. Her campaign has focused on public education, workers, personal freedoms and affordability. National Democrats are also paying attention: the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee has officially placed HD 17 on its list of targeted Missouri races for 2026.

Hoisington has also assembled support from several organizations traditionally important to Democrats in the district, including labor groups, while her background in education gives Democrats a candidate whose résumé is closely tied to one of their major campaign issues.

Allen has already demonstrated an ability to navigate competitive elections in HD 17. He won the seat by only 37 votes in 2022 and expanded that margin two years later. Hoisington and Democrats are now testing whether that success can continue in a different midterm environment, while Allen is attempting to demonstrate that his performance in the district is durable beyond any single election cycle.

Rep. Dr. Bill Allen
Cash In: $4,500.00
Cash Out: $0.00
Candidate Loans: 7,777.00
Cash on Hand: $35,024.49
Buck Up PAC
Cash In: 0.00
Cash Out: 95.00
Cash on Hand: 6,354.93
Total Cash on Hand: $41,379.42

Dr. Susan Hoisington
Cash In: $10,243.89
Cash Out: $8,569.28
Candidate Loans: $11,000.00
Cash on Hand: $10,619.88
Total Cash on Hand: $10,619.88

HD 133: Stinnett’s seat sees fresh faces

RPI: 47.15%

One of the more interesting House races in Springfield this cycle comes courtesy of a familiar name who won’t actually be on the ballot for the seat.

Rep. Melanie Stinnett is leaving HD 133 to seek the Senate seat in SD 30, opening up a district she carried with 56.1% of the vote in 2024. Now, Republicans are looking to keep the seat with Jerry Angelo, while Democrats have recruited a young candidate with some firsthand experience inside the Missouri House. That Democrat is Katelyn Zach.

Zach previously worked as a House staffer and is now putting that experience to use in a campaign of her own. She’s running an energetic operation in Springfield and represents a younger generation of Democrats attempting to build a presence in southwest Missouri.

A Drury University graduate, Zach has worked in the nonprofit sector, including helping Springfield residents experiencing homelessness connect with stable housing and other services. Her campaign has centered on affordable housing, healthcare, public education and working families.

She’s also attracted attention beyond Springfield, with the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee putting its support behind her candidacy.

Republicans, meanwhile, have Jerry Angelo, who brings a different résumé to the contest.

Angelo spent 27 years working in technology as a data center and network security engineer, managing major infrastructure projects for Fortune 500 companies. He and his wife also founded Vanguard Marriage and Family Advocates, a southwest Missouri nonprofit focused on strengthening marriages and families.

His campaign has emphasized support for first responders, responsible budgeting and reducing financial pressures on working households.

The interesting dynamic in HD 133 is that neither candidate enters November as an incumbent. Angelo is attempting to retain a seat Republicans have held under Stinnett, while Zach is trying to establish her own political identity in a district where Democrats received just under 44% of the vote two years ago.

And then there’s the Senate race.

With Stinnett and Fogle campaigning for SD 30, voters in this part of Springfield will be seeing plenty of legislative campaign activity this fall. 

For Zach, the race is an opportunity to translate her experience working inside the Capitol and in Springfield’s nonprofit community into a campaign for elected office. For Angelo, it’s an opportunity to bring his business and community background to Jefferson City while continuing Republican representation of the district.

HD 133 will give Springfield voters a choice between two candidates bringing very different backgrounds to the seat she leaves behind.

Jerry Angelo
Cash In: $7,500.00
Cash Out: $2,324.93
Cash on Hand: $16,164.80
Strong and Courageous PAC
Cash In: n/a
Cash Out: n/a
Cash on Hand: n/a
Total Cash on Hand: $16,164.80

Katelyn Zach

Cash In: $2,789.90

Cash Out: $5,768.60

Cash on Hand: $7,883.61

Total Cash on Hand: $25,100.50

HD 105: Is St. Charles Safe?
RPI: 47.63%
If Democrats are going to make real gains in St. Charles County this cycle, HD 105 and Rep. Colin Wellenkamp are probably going to tell us a lot about how far they can go.

Of the two St. Charles seats drawing the most attention, the 105th presents Democrats with an interesting opportunity. The district still has a Republican lean, with the 2024 presidential result at roughly R+5.4, but it is exactly the kind of suburban territory Democrats have increasingly tried to put into play.

Wellenkamp, however, isn’t necessarily an easy Republican for Democrats to run against.

Since arriving in Jefferson City, Wellenkamp has developed a reputation as one of the more moderate and policy-oriented members of the Republican caucus. He serves on Conservation and Natural Resources, Local Government and the Joint Committee on the Life Sciences, and his legislative work has included environmental and water issues that don’t always fall neatly along partisan lines. In 2026, Wellenkamp handled major water-regulation legislation in the House and sponsored legislation dealing with stormwater management in county parks.

That gives Democrats an unusual problem. They’re targeting a Republican-held suburban district, but the incumbent has spent his time in Jefferson City building a record that gives him some room to appeal beyond the Republican base.

Democrats are answering with Cat Clayton, a young software and data engineer from St. Charles who has quickly attracted attention from the party. Clayton is campaigning heavily on healthcare access, public education, affordability and workers’ rights, and the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee has put its support behind her campaign. Labor is also getting involved, with the Laborers’ District Council endorsing Clayton.

Clayton’s candidacy gives Democrats a fresh face in a district they’re hoping is moving in their direction, while Wellenkamp gives Republicans an incumbent whose legislative profile doesn’t fit particularly neatly into the national partisan environment.

That’s what makes the 105th interesting. Democrats are testing whether the political changes seen in suburban Missouri can extend deeper into St. Charles County. Republicans, meanwhile, are testing whether an incumbent with a more moderate and bipartisan policy profile can maintain support in exactly the kind of district Democrats are increasingly targeting.

If St. Charles County is becoming part of Missouri’s suburban battlefield, HD 105 should give us a pretty good indication of how quickly that change is happening.

Rep. Collin Wellenkamp

Cash In: $4,500.00

Cash Out: $2.00

Cash on Hand: $30,136.16

Missouri Rising PAC

Cash In: $2,508.29

Cash Out: 0.00

Cash on Hand: $2,508.29

Total Cash on Hand: $25,100.50

Cat Clayton

Cash In: $15,596.14

Cash Out: $5,458.33

Candidate Loans: $466.64

Cash on Hand: $37,789.37

Total Cash on Hand: $37,789.37

HD 101: How far can Democrats go in the suburbs?

50.29%

It probably shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that the last three districts we’ve covered sit at the heart of the toughest State Senate race in 2024.

David Gregory survived an expensive battle for SD 15 in 2024, defeating Democrat Joe Pereles 51.6% to 46.8% in a race that saw millions poured into the district. Two years later, the same suburban St. Louis political shifts that made that Senate race competitive are showing themselves further down the ballot.

That brings us to HD 101 and Rep. Ben Keathley.

Keathley has represented the Chesterfield-area district since 2023 and came into Jefferson City with plenty of local political experience already under his belt. An attorney by trade, Keathley previously served two terms on the Chesterfield City Council before making the jump to the legislature. He has since moved up the ladder in the House, serving as chairman of General Laws and the Joint Committee on Administrative Rules while also sitting on Judiciary and committees dealing with property and tax reform.

Keathley didn’t have quite the scare some of his fellow suburban Republicans did in 2024. He defeated Democrat Jacqueline Cotton 54.6% to 45.4%, giving him a little more breathing room than Republicans had elsewhere in SD 15. But a roughly nine-point win isn’t necessarily comfortable enough to take for granted in a part of St. Louis County that has become increasingly competitive over the last several cycles.

Democrats are coming back this year with Paul Lentz.

Lentz comes from a business and technology background, having worked as a corporate revenue accountant, software analyst and big-data engineer while also operating a small business. His campaign has focused on public education, healthcare costs and infrastructure, giving Democrats another candidate running heavily on the bread-and-butter suburban issues they have increasingly emphasized in west St. Louis County.

There is also a Libertarian in the race, Jeff Coleman, adding another variable to the November ballot.

The bigger story here, though, may be the neighborhood.

HD 101 isn’t happening in isolation. The same collection of west St. Louis County suburbs that produced one of Missouri’s most expensive and competitive Senate races in 2024 is producing several House contests worth watching in 2026. Republicans still hold these seats, but Democrats are testing how far the suburban movement they have seen further up the ballot can travel down into legislative races.

For Democrats, the question is whether the broader changes that made SD 15 such a fight in 2024 can make HD 101 a fight in 2026. For Keathley, it’s about keeping enough separation between himself and those larger political trends to secure another term in Jefferson City.

Rep. Ben Keathley
Cash In: $5,150.00
Cash Out: $31.24
Candidate Loans: $5,709.13
Cash on Hand: $62,101.55
Freedom is Bold PAC
Cash on Hand: Limited Activity
Total Cash on Hand: $62,101.55

Paul Lentz

Cash In: $10,621.36

Cash Out: $618.93

Cash on Hand: $10,480.62

Total Cash on Hand: $10,480.62

HD 106: Wilson Survives the Primary, Now Comes November

RPI: 48.47%

If HD 105 is the test of how far Democrats can push into St. Charles County, HD 106 may be the messier race.

Rep. Travis Wilson enters the general election after first having to survive a serious Republican primary challenge from former Rep. Chris Sander.

That primary matters because the Republican side hasn’t completely stitched itself back together. Sander has since announced his support for Kelly, giving Democrats something they rarely get in a legislative race: a former Republican legislator publicly siding with the Democratic nominee against the Republican incumbent.

Wilson now has to move from a bruising intraparty fight directly into a competitive general election. That means rebuilding the Republican coalition while simultaneously turning his attention toward a Democratic challenger who has been campaigning for the seat for more than a year.

Jewel Kelly gives Democrats a candidate with a résumé that doesn’t fit particularly neatly into the usual partisan boxes. Kelly is a U.S. Air Force veteran, small-business owner and mental-health advocate who rose to the rank of captain during his military career. His campaign has focused on affordability, healthcare and public safety, and the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee has thrown its support behind him. The Missouri-Kansas Laborers’ District Council is also backing Kelly.

Kelly’s opportunity is to capitalize on the divisions from a tough primary while expanding beyond the traditional Democratic coalition. Sander’s endorsement gives him an unusual talking point in that effort, but the larger question is whether dissatisfaction from the Republican primary carries into November or whether GOP voters consolidate behind Wilson once the general election arrives.

Taken together, HD 105 and HD 106 make St. Charles one of the more interesting places to watch on election night. Democrats don’t need these districts to demonstrate that suburban Missouri has changed, they need them to demonstrate just how far that change has traveled.

Rep. Travis Wilson

Cash In: $12,510.00

Cash Out: $16,739.25

Cash on Hand: $7,005.51

Total Cash on Hand: $7,005.51

Jewel Kelly

Cash In: $11,659.88

Cash Out: $7,693.01

Cash on Hand: $19,115.19

Cash on Hand: $19,115.19

HD 94: Can the Murphy Name Carry On?

RPI: 49.42%

There may not be an incumbent on the ballot in HD 94 this year, but there will still be a Murphy.

Rep. Jim Murphy is term-limited after eight years representing the Oakville-area district, and Republicans are looking to keep both the seat and the name with Maryellen Murphy, his wife. Maryellen is no stranger to the district or the political world around it. She and Jim operated a small business together for decades, and she has been involved in campaigns and Republican politics going back to her high school and college years.

There is also a pretty interesting dynamic at play here: the Murphy name has been appearing on ballots in this part of South County for years. Jim Murphy has won the House seat four consecutive times since 2018, and Maryellen enters the race with many of the relationships and political connections that come with having spent the last eight years alongside an incumbent legislator.

That has produced one of the more interesting little pieces of campaign strategy we’ve seen this cycle. Maryellen’s signs have increasingly emphasized simply “Murphy” for State Representative. The question is whether the name recognition Jim has built over four successful campaigns can translate into support for Maryellen in her own right.

Democrats are countering with Cathy Summers, a small-business owner running on public education, healthcare, workers’ rights and affordability. Summers has also attracted support from a collection of Democratic-aligned organizations, including organized labor and abortion-rights groups, while the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is supporting her candidacy.

The district itself has historically provided Republicans with an advantage. Jim Murphy won his last election with 56.3% of the vote, while one analysis of the current lines puts HD 94 at roughly R+6.6 based on the 2024 presidential vote.

But an open seat presents a different test than an incumbent seeking another term. Republicans are attempting to transfer an established political operation and familiar name to a new candidate, while Democrats are trying to make the contest about the two individuals actually appearing on November’s ballot.

There was also a modest Democratic participation advantage in the August primary. Summers received 3,932 votes in her uncontested primary compared with 3,142 for Murphy.

The central question in the 94th is pretty simple: How much of Jim Murphy’s political success can Maryellen carry into her own campaign?

Jim has spent eight years building relationships and winning elections in South County, and Maryellen brings her own business background and political involvement to the race. Summers, meanwhile, is attempting to build a different coalition around affordability, education and healthcare.This is more than a contest between two first-time House candidates. It’s a test of whether an established political name and the organization behind it can carry over from one candidate to another during a midterm election cycle.

Maryellen Murphy

Cash In: $2,500.00

Cash Out: $5,937.14

Cash on Hand: $40,091.69

Total Cash on Hand: $40,091.69

Cathy Summers

Cash In: $4,045.00

Cash Out: $2,151.38

Candidate Loans: $1,171.25

Cash on Hand: $25,100.50

Total Cash on Hand: $16,704.62

HD 35: Can Fresh Face Flip this Seat?

RPI: 42.80%

Much like HD 30, the race to replace Keri Ingle in the House is another contest that will be greatly affected by the State Senate race unfolding over much of the same territory. Ingle has held the seat since first flipping it in 2018, but her decision to run for Senate District 8 has created an open-seat opportunity in Lee’s Summit.

Republicans are putting their best foot forward with Jacquie Stenger. Stenger grew up just a stone’s throw from Lee’s Summit in Raytown before eventually settling in the area with her family. In 2021, she and her husband founded GST Specialty, a local insurance and healthcare-navigation company geared toward helping families and small businesses navigate insurance and healthcare costs.

Stenger has made healthcare and affordability major pieces of her campaign, drawing heavily on her experience in the insurance industry. She has also emphasized government spending, public safety, education and support for small businesses. Her background gives Republicans a candidate with deep ties to the area and a résumé built around issues that are likely to feature heavily in the general election.

On the Democratic side, Michael Scott is looking to keep the seat in Democratic hands. Scott has spent years as a community leader and pastor in the Lee’s Summit area and enters the general election with support from several organizations traditionally active in Democratic legislative races, including organized labor and education groups. The Missouri Secretary of State lists Scott as the Democratic nominee opposite Stenger in November.

The political geography, however, is considerably different from when Republicans last controlled this seat. Ingle won reelection in 2024 with 57.5 percent of the vote, and Democrats also saw considerably higher participation in the uncontested August primaries this year: 5,696 votes were cast for Scott compared with 2,764 for Stenger. Primary turnout is not directly predictive of November results, but the disparity provides another data point as both parties gauge enthusiasm in Lee’s Summit heading into the fall.

In another environment, two fresh faces with the résumés of Stenger and Scott would make for an interesting fight on their own. This year, however, neither campaign will operate in a vacuum. The Patterson-Ingle Senate contest, statewide ballot issues and the broader national environment will all be competing for the attention of the same Lee’s Summit voters.

For Stenger, the question is whether a strong door-to-door campaign and a business-focused message can make inroads in a district that has moved toward Democrats over the past several cycles. For Scott, the task is translating the coalition that repeatedly elected Ingle into support for a new Democratic nominee. That makes HD 35 another useful test of just how much Lee’s Summit’s politics have changed, and whether those changes continue without Ingle herself on the House ballot.

Jacquie Stenger 

Cash In: $14,252.87

Cash Out: $8,014.50

Cash on Hand: $21,820.87

Better MO PAC

Cash In: $50.00

Cash Out: $0.00

Cash on Hand: $50.00

Total Cash on Hand: $21,870.87

Michael Scott

Cash In: $3,370.00

Cash Out: $1,033.23

Cash on Hand: $18,057.34

Total Cash on Hand: $18,057.34

HD 38: Democrats Eye Liberty Stronghold

RPI: 49.57%

In 2024, I’m not sure how many Democrats thought they would manage to knock off one of the most conservative members of the Missouri House in a Republican-leaning district, but I’m sure they were thrilled when the results came in from the 38th.

Centered around Liberty, HD 38 would traditionally look like the kind of suburban district Republicans could hold. The district backed the Republican presidential nominee by roughly 4.5 points in 2024, but Marty Jacobs managed to pull off one of the bigger surprises of the cycle, defeating incumbent Republican Chris Lonsdale 51.3% to 48.7%.

Jacobs is a public school guy through and through. He spent 44 years working in education as a teacher, coach and administrator, including lengthy stints as principal of Liberty High School and Liberty North. That gave Jacobs deep roots in the community before he ever appeared on a ballot, and he has carried that education background with him into the Capitol, where he serves on the House Elementary and Secondary Education Committee.

The Republican facing Jacobs has a different challenge than candidates in some of the other suburban seats: Mary Hill isn’t trying to defend an incumbent. She’s trying to win back a seat Republicans lost just two years ago.

Luckily for Republicans, Hill is no stranger to campaigning. A longtime Republican activist, Hill has built a reputation as a relentless door-knocker and an active presence in Clay County politics. She also brings more than three decades of experience as a registered nurse, giving Republicans a candidate with both a healthcare background and considerable grassroots campaign experience.

There are already signs that both sides are engaged. In the August primary, Jacobs received 4,342 votes while Hill received 3,334 in their respective uncontested contests. Primary turnout isn’t directly comparable to a general election, but it gives both campaigns a sizable pool of voters to begin working from heading into November.

Hill’s work ethic gives Republicans an active challenger in a district they carried at the presidential level two years ago. Jacobs, meanwhile, enters the race as an incumbent who has already demonstrated an ability to win crossover support in Liberty. That sets up HD 38 as a test of whether Jacobs’ 2024 victory represented a candidate-specific break from the district’s Republican lean or the beginning of a more durable shift in Liberty politics.

Mary Hill
Cash In: $1,100.00
Cash Out: $1,479.05
Candidate Loans: $100
Cash on Hand: $7,504.65
Total Cash on Hand: $7,504.65

Rep. Marty Jacobs

Cash In: $8,240.88

Cash Out: $1,714.79

Candidate Loans: $6,300.00

Cash on Hand: $33,398.65

Total Cash on Hand: $33,398.65

HD 12: Dems Look to Flip Parkville… Again
RP: 46.70%
This was a top race to watch last cycle, and it remains one this cycle. Mike Jones ran a tough and disciplined campaign in 2024 to oust Jamie Johnson from the seat, and now Jones is moving on to the State Senate. Sitting just a few miles south of KCI Airport, the district encompasses Parkville, Riverside and parts of Northmoor and Houston Lake.

Jamie Johnson and the Democrats took it over winning by 5%. Dems would hold the seat for just 2 years until Mike Jones came in and HRCC won the race by barely .8%. Jones is now leaving for the Senate and Republicans polling shows them on the rocks.

With Jones leaving and the filing deadline approaching, Republicans picked up Jerry Hickey to run for the seat. Hickey and his wife, Jill, founded an Express Employment Professionals staffing firm in 2013, which his campaign says has helped more than 20,000 people find employment.

Hickey is running as a conservative focused heavily on economic and workforce issues, drawing on his experience as a small business owner. His platform calls for limiting government spending, reducing regulations, attracting new businesses and expanding workforce training. He has also emphasized school choice and parental involvement in education, lowering healthcare costs through competition and transparency, and protecting individual and constitutional rights.

On the Democratic side, Tracey Steele became more involved in political organizing following the 2024 election, helping found Do Something MO, a Northland-based community service and advocacy organization. His campaign has focused on lowering the cost of living, fully funding public schools, expanding access to affordable healthcare, supporting workforce development and protecting policies approved directly by Missouri voters.

Steele is also running with support from unions like the AFL-CIO, LiUnna, and the firefighters as well as the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which has identified HD 12 as one of its targeted Missouri contests.

In a different political environment, Hickey’s profile would check a number of traditional boxes for moderate voters in a district like this: a local small-business owner with deep ties to the community and a campaign centered on economic issues, but this year is of course not a normal year for the super majority party. With voters out to vote no on most things put forward by Republicans, gas prices rising, and Trump’s popularity dwindling, Democrats look poised to retake this seat. 

Jerry Hickey

Cash In: $7,561.60

Cash Out: $1,218.55

Cash on Hand: $6,343.05

Total Cash on Hand: $6,343.05

Tracey Steele

Cash In: $14,395.00

Cash Out: $4,628.23

Cash on Hand: $25,100.50

Rebuilding Missouri PAC

Cash In: n/a

Cash Out: n/a

Cash on Hand: n/a

Total Cash on Hand: $25,100.50