January 2018 Tip Sheet: Statewides and State Senate

   

As always, the tip sheet tries to layout the most accurate view of the political landscape. In 2018, the question will be: how popular is President Donald Trump? We are no longer a bellwether, ticket-splitting conservative state — Missouri is now a red state. However, the right Democrats can compete in the right years against the right opponents.

U.S. Senator McCaskill, a Democrat, can win re-election unless Trump is still overwhelmingly popular in the state. Regardless who wins, the question in the Auditor’s race will be whether either party’s candidate can win if their counterpart on the top of the ticket loses. It seems unlikely. However, as always, Missourians are prone to re-electing incumbent statewide elected officials, but as is everything in Missouri politics it’s complicated because Nicole Galloway was appointed not elected.

On the state Senate side, it’s all about the primaries. Of the now 9 open seats, 8 are Republican seats, and almost all of them are safe seats. It will be fun watching the politics unfold in the 16th, 18th 14th, and 32nd – where the primaries will determine the senators.

It looks like Rep. Bernskoetter and former Reps. Burlison and Hough are safe bets to be promoted. We ranked the races in terms of competitiveness below.

Then there is the 34th. It seems poetic justice that Senator Schaaf’s seat should provide us with the hottest primary and the hottest general this cycle.

We currently project the statewide elections as toss-ups. More accurately, it is too early to make any real projections. The next guide post will be if any of Hawley’s challengers will have raised any money on their next FEC reports, and can Wasinger continue to put together establishment support to augment his financial advantage.

The state senate is currently 25 – 9 Republican. We project it will be 24-9 Republican with one toss-up, in the 34th. That projection probably stand regardless of where the President stands next fall as there really aren’t many other competitive open seats with former Rep. Hough now running in the competitive 30th. It’s possible that the Republicans mount a challenge to Senator Schupp or the Democrats mount one to Senator Wieland, but Trump’s unique profile is likely to re-elect both.

For Democrats, they must look fondly to 2020 where they have Senator Silvey* and Senator Romine leaving swing districts as well as the always battleground of Boone County, although will be well defended by Senator Rowden. The Democrats path to exiting the super minority is likely winning the 34th, and picking up 2 of those 3 in 2020.

*Silvey’s appointment to the PSC was confirmed after this was written, which has been reflected in edits. The seat will remain up for election in 2020.

U.S. SENATE

Missouri will once again be home to one of the most high profile U.S. Senate races in the nation. Millions of dollars will be poured in on both sides and the attention of the nation will once again be on the Show-Me State. Incumbent Sen. McCaskill has always ran ahead of her party, and in years where that might not have been enough she has helped an unelectable Republican out of the primary and easily knocked off.

The Republican party has coalesced behind Attorney General Josh Hawley. At first blush, the question seemed could the moderate McCaskill outpace a run of the mill generic Republican. However in a matter of hours Hawley cast himself as a different kind of Republican defending the sunshine law against the executive branch and McCaskill voted against President Trump’s tax cut. Normally, the narrative is the bold maverick McCaskill vs. the meek party schill Hawley, with Hawley starting with a 5-8 percent partisan Republican advantage. The year ended with McCaskill as the party-line schill vs. the bold maverick Hawley, still with Hawley having a 5-8 percent Republican advantage…

Where McCaskill has steered clear of primary challengers, Hawley, McConnell’s pick, has a collection of individuals vying to take on the establishment. The first of the class is Courtland Sykes. He has a message of red meat that is made for a Fox News viewer in Howell County. He may also have the connections to raise enough money to set himself apart. In the months leading up to the real primary kickoff he has done the most to put himself in position to make it a race.

Former Libertarian Presidential candidate Austin Petersen has a committed following on social media, but will have to show the capability to raise some funds to make it a race. He has been able to generate some attention, but Petersen must find a way to fundraise in order to capitalize on it.

Tony Monetti has a stellar resume and some political talent. Monetti is in the same position as the others he is someone the Bannon/Club for Growth crowd could latch onto and fund a real primary, but thus far haven’t shown a willingness to do so.  

TIP SHEET PREDICTION:

R PRIMARY: HAWLEY FAVORED

GENERAL ELECTION: TOSS-UP

(D) U.S. Senator Claire McCaskill

Contributions this election: $7,173,566.00

Expenditures: $2,873,965.00

Cash on hand: $5,117,810.00

(R) Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley

Contributions this election: $820,760.00

Expenditures: $38,000.00

Cash on hand: $782,000.00

(R) Courtland Sykes

Contributions this election: N/A

Expenditures: N/A

Cash on hand: N/A

(R) Tony Monetti

Contributions this election: $163,283.00

Expenditures: $86,763.00

Cash on hand: $76,519.00

(R) Austin Petersen

Contributions this election: N/A

Expenditures: N/A

Cash on hand: N/A

 

STATE AUDITOR

Nicole Galloway is a tremendously challenging candidate to run against. The evidence of that is that Republican groups are already spending money to defeat her. She dodged a top-tier opponent when the House Speaker decided not to run. A question for Galloway is, can she win if McCaskill loses?

On the Republican side, mirror opposites are vying for the nomination. David Wasinger, the husband of highly respected St. Louis County Council member Colleen Wasinger, is a CPA and an attorney from St. Louis County. He has never sought an elective office before and is proving that he will have the resources to compete in the primary. You might even call him an outsider who has a large bankroll and is piling up establishment backing.

Rep. Curtman, also from St. Louis County, has a wide base of grassroots supporters and a legislative record of 8 years making contacts around the state. Starting from day one, you would assume Curtman as the favorite. However, with a few months of campaigning if Curtman can’t begin to mount a serious fundraising effort Wasinger will become the favorite going into session with a 180 to 1 money advantage.

TIP SHEET PREDICTION:

R PRIMARY: TOSS-UP

GENERAL ELECTION: LEAN GALLOWAY

(D) State Auditor Nicole Galloway

Contributions this period: $211,118.00

Contributions this election: $4,100.20

Cash on hand: $665,380.78

(R) David Wasinger

Contributions this period: $151,950.00

Contributions this election: $0.00

Cash on hand: $645,954.67

(R) State Representative Paul Curtman

Contributions this period: $0

Contributions this election: $5,697.22

Cash on hand: $3,527.33

 

STATE SENATE

OPEN SEATS in 2018 – 9*

 

# 1 SD 34 (R+0.8) Senator Rob Schaaf is term-limited.

This seat will likely be the hottest primary in the state followed by the hottest general election race in the state. Let’s start with the Republican primary. Tony Luetkemeyer is a stellar recruit, he is an attorney who graduated from MU after interning in the Bush administration. His wife currently serves in the Greitens administration, which could be both a plus and a minus. That could mean that the Governor’s dark money group infiltrates the campaign and gives him a huge fundraising advantage, and having the backing of a Governor of your party is always helpful. On the other hand it means other groups and other senators themselves will be backing your opponent. Moreover, even the weakest and most subservient Republican state senators didn’t take well to the Governor’s dark money operation attacking fellow members of the body. With Axiom on board, the campaign will be well ran and Luetkemeyer starts the campaign as one of the favorites.

The Presiding Commissioner of Buchanan County Harry Roberts has the base of his home county where he is widely known and has the early backing of several senators who make the case for a more balanced three branches. There are several Republicans who are attempting to avoid a primary and currently that would involve Roberts forgoing a run, however, he has given no indications that he is willing to bow out.

No one will out-conservative Rep. Nick Marshall, and a wild card could be the fact that he has an interest group that could fund his race. He also hails from the same Platte County town of Parkville that Luetkemeyer is from. Don’t sleep on Marshall as a difference maker in this race.

Speaking of geography, the incredibly hot primary in 2010 that Senator Schaaf won, saw 43 percent of the primary vote coming from Buchanan County, and, in 2014, 42 percent of the Republican primary vote came from Buchanan County. The argument that Platte County voters are suburban while Buchanan County voters are more rural and therefore more parochial is the argument for Roberts. While the Luetkemeyer argument is that with 55 percent or more vote from Platte County their financial advantage should hold either way. Again, the wild card could be Rep. Marshall.

In the general election Martin Rucker is a former MU football star and a sterling name in St. Joseph. He ran an unsuccessful race for State Representative in Platte County in 2016 and could be set for a win in a decent year for Missouri Democrats in 2018. However, Rep. Pat Conway is a throwback to the types of Democrats who build their legislative majorities in the past. It seems likely that he might not run if Rucker looked like a winner as this is the most legitimate Democratic target senate Democrats have in 2018.

TIP SHEET PREDICTION:

R-PRIMARY: TOSS-UP

D-PRIMARY: LIKELY RUCKER

GENERAL ELECTION: TOSS-UP

(R) Tony Luetkemeyer

Contributions this period: $89,962.50

Contributions this election: $0

Cash on hand: $195,539.81

(R) Buchanan County Presiding Commissioner Harry Roberts

Contributions this period: $72,040

Contributions this election: $72,040

Cash on hand: $72,040

(R) Rep. Nick Marshall

Contributions this period: $0

Contributions this election: $500.00

Cash on hand: $239.00

(D) Martin Rucker

Contributions this period: $50.00

Contributions this election: $296.98

Cash on hand: $804.64

(D) Rep. Pat Conway

Contributions this period: $0

Contributions this election: $0

Cash on hand: $25,668

 

*SD17 (R+0.8) Senator Silvey has been appointed to the PSC. A special election has not been called for the seat as of publishing.

This seat is the ultimate swing seat in the state senate. Senator Silvey’s popularity has masked the fact that Clay County is the ultimate swing district, and may be trending Democratic. The Republicans seem to be coalescing behind Rep. Kevin Corlew as their new Ryan Silvey, who’ll bridge the partisan divide and win swing elections in Clay County. While on the Democrats side, Rep. Jon Carpenter seems to be leaning toward a Kansas City city council run which would open the door for Rep. Lauren Arthur to seek election to the higher chamber. 

(R) Rep. Kevin Corlew

Contributions this period: $14,880.00

Contributions this election: $1,777.26

Cash on hand: $12,296.95

(D) Rep. Lauren Arthur

Contributions this period: $680

Contributions this election: $55,232.23

Cash on hand: $47,923.98

*As of the formatting of this, Sen. Silvey has not been confirmed or resigned from the chamber, but is expected to. In the event he were not confirmed on January 4, this seat will open in 2020 with Silvey terming out.

 

# 2 SD 18  (R+5.6) Senator Brian Munzlinger is term-limited.

Big shoes to fill in northeast Missouri as Senator Munzlinger is leaving the senate and all out primary fight has broken out to replace him. Thus far, Rep. Lindell Shumake, Rep. Craig Redmon and Rep. Nate Walker are running, as well as Republican businesswoman Cindy O’Laughlin.

Rep. Redmon has been working the district for several years and is casting himself as the heir to Sen. Munzlinger’s efforts, with the support of Munzlinger’s chief of staff Pat Thomas. O’Laughlin is casting herself as an outsider who has jumped out to the large fundraising advantage hiring Axiom and having the invaluable Aaron Baker on board.

Rep. Walker lays claim to being a consistent winner and having the western side of the district to himself while his three opponents are from the eastern portion, and with Barklage and Company on board running his campaign.

Taking a closer look at the Highway 61 vs. Highway 63 numbers in 2014. Remember Redmon, O’Laughlin, and Shumake are from the Highway 61 corridor while Walker is from the Highway 63 corridor.

We broke the district down into 4 regions:

Highway 61 corridor of Marion, Clark, Pike, Lewis, and Ralls Counties.

Highway 63 corridor of Schuyler, Adair, Macon, and Linn Counties.

Middle counties of Shelby, Scotland, and Knox Counties.

Southern counties of Randolph and Chariton Counties.

The geographical advantage goes to Rep. Walker with 41% of the vote coming from the Highway 63 corridor with 35% of the vote from the eastern side with just 7% coming from counties in between.

This leaves the southern counties of Randolph and Chariton as the real battleground with nearly 16% of the vote and no natural candidate coming from that portion of the district. While the rest of the district is in relatively inexpensive media markets the southern counties are in the Columbia media market and will be expensive to effectively enter. With the logic stating that O’Laughlin will have the financial advantage she could be best poised to win this area.

If you assume Rep. Redmon runs the strongest in the Highway 61 corridor, Rep. Walker runs the strongest in the Highway 63 corridor, O’Laughlin needs to come in 2nd in both areas and win the southern counties. Meaning any of the three could win.

A key example of a larger tale of Missouri politics this that seat is safely Republican in 2018.

TIP SHEET PREDICTION:  

R-PRIMARY: TOSS-UP

GENERAL ELECTION: SAFE REPUBLICAN

(R) Rep. Craig Redmon

Contributions this period: $24,440.00

Contributions this election: $25,000.44

Cash on hand: $35,949.55

(R) Rep. Nate Walker

Contributions this period: $3,300.00

Contributions this election: $0.00

Cash on hand: $1,530.17

(R) Cindy O’Laughlin

Contributions this period: $59,850.00

Contributions this election: $0.00

Cash on hand: $154,833.62

(R) Lindell Shumake

Contributions this period: $7,920.00

Contributions this election: $5,550.00

Cash on hand: $10,676.61

 

#3 SD16 (R+11.2) Senator Dan Brown is term-limited.  

It’s easy to forget that it was only 8 years ago when Doc Brown defeated an incumbent Democrat to flip the seat Republican. A lot has happened since then and it’s turned into a geographical battle between the eastern and western sides of the district.

Senator Brown’s son Justin, also from the Phelps County area, is seeking his father’s seat while Rep. Diane Franklin from the western side of the district is running.

A wild card in the race is former Senator Jane Cunningham, who has moved from St. Louis to the lake area and is talking about running. It would be tough to convince mid-Missouri voters to elect a newcomer to town, but she could make things very difficult for Rep. Franklin. While the Democrats have a very good recruit in Ryan Dillon, from the Rolla area, he will pose the best challenge the Democrats have put in the area since Frank Barnitz.

The easiest way to break down the district is between eastern and western counties. This would be Camden and Pulaski Counties to the west and Phelps, Dent, and Crawford Counties to the east. Breaking it down in those terms Rep. Franklin would have a slight 52 percent to 48 percent geographical advantage.

However, the topography doesn’t exactly align with the geography where Pulaski County is concerned. While Phelps, Dent, and Crawford counties are all aligned and will likely vote together, Pulaski County does not have the same natural tie to Camden County. It may be more likely that the vote alignment is 48 percent in the eastern counties, 34 percent in Camden County and 17 percent in Pulaski County, without a natural geographical candidate but with Rep. Franklin with perhaps an advantage out of the gate to claim them.

Her argument would be that she will be marginally better in the eastern counties than Brown will do in Camden County while having a better claim to the Pulaski County vote.

Brown’s argument would be that the connections his father has built will give him a better share of the Pulaski County vote, and from Crawford County you can drive to Illinois faster than you can the lake, and he will have the fundraising advantage.

In the weeks leading up to filing Rep. Franklin has to demonstrate a fundraising strength, while Brown must make sure another Phelps County candidate doesn’t file.

TIP SHEET PREDICTION:  

R-PRIMARY: TOSS-UP

GENERAL ELECTION: LIKELY REPUBLICAN

(R) Rep. Diane Franklin

Contributions this period: $15,270.00

Contributions this election: $500.00

Cash on hand: $13,423.59

(R) Justin Brown

Contributions this period: $3,500.00

Contributions this election: $0.00

Cash on hand: $187,647.79

(R) Jane Cunningham

Contributions this period: $0.00

Contributions this election: $43,203.63

Cash on hand: $18,061.41

(D) Ryan Dillon

Contributions this period: $18,150.00

Contributions this election: $1,000.00

Cash on hand: $43,901.94

 

#4 SD14 D+18.9 Senator Maria Chappelle-Nadal is term-limited.

This district is some to some of the most politically active people in the state stretching from the St. Louis County seat of Clayton to Ferguson. Currently the race is between Representative and former University City Mayor Joe Adams and former Representative Sharon Pace. However, it is far more likely that more candidates enter the race than the race stays between the two of them.

Rep. Courtney Curtis has expressed some interest, and he would have a natural claim to support from the incumbent senator as well as a Republican mega donor who has supported him in the past. That is if his tax and ethics commission issues can be cleared up by filing. His entry would probably be neutral to Adams and Pace as Nadal has never been a supporter of Adams anyway.

Rep. Faith-Walker is an intriguing candidate, but it seems she could be tempted to remain in the house and run in 2020 in Senator Walsh’s district or see what the new senate map looks like in 2022.

That leaves Congressman Clay staffer Brian Williams as the person most likely to shake the race up. He would be a talented fundraiser and campaigner, and, if he could secure the Congressman’s backing, would be the early favorite.

TIP SHEET PREDICTION:  

D-PRIMARY: TOSS-UP

GENERAL ELECTION: SAFE DEMOCRAT

(D) Rep. Joe Adams

Contributions this period: $19,673.00

Contributions this election: $1,400.00

Cash on hand: $54,995.69

(D) Former Rep. Sharon Pace

Contributions this period: $3,670.00

Contributions this election: $125.00

Cash on hand: $27,193.75

 

#5 SD 32 (R+19.5)  Senator Ron Richard is term-limited.

Filling the shoes of the Senate Pro Tem will be a tall order. Thus far Reps. Charlie Davis and Bill White are the only open contenders who have stepped up to do so. Their campaigns had a lot of some similarities until Rep. White invested a $100,000 into his campaign. With both candidates having similar arguments and both staffed with top consultants if Rep. White maintains a large money advantage he will start 2018 a slight favorite.

However, don’t sleep on another candidate popping up in this district. There has long been rumored another Joplin candidate entering the race.

TIP SHEET PREDICTION:  

R-PRIMARY: LEAN WHITE

GENERAL ELECTION: SAFE REPUBLICAN

(R) Rep. Charlie Davis

Contributions this period: $14,510.00

Contributions this election: $1,000.00

Cash on hand: $20,215.90

(R) Rep. Bill White

Contributions this period: $25,920.00

Contributions this election: $0.00

Cash on hand: $218,199.48

 

#6 SD30 (R+4.6)  Senator Bob Dixon is term-limited.

It took southwest Missouri Republicans a while, but in the end the deal that was struck between former Reps. Lincoln Hough and Eric Burlison is Hough will be running to replace Senator Dixon. Had Hough not been the candidate, then this race is completely different and would potentially be the best pick up option for senate Democrats. With Hough on the ballot, it’s highly unlikely the Republicans lose this seat, and now have a natural successor to Senator Jay Wasson, just in a district to the north.

However, unless redistricting racially changes the 30th’s boundaries it’s far more likely Rep. Crystal Quade inherits the seat than a Republican 8 years from now, until then, the Republican caucus has potentially one of the most talented senators in a generation entering their caucus.

TIP SHEET PREDICTION:  

GENERAL ELECTION: LIKELY REPUBLICAN

(R) Former Rep. Lincoln Hough

Contributions this period: $37,550.00

Contributions this election: $0.00

Cash on hand: $214,997.46

(D) Former Rep. Charlie Norr

Contributions this period: $$6,920.00

Contributions this election: $200.00

Cash on hand: $$18,144.06

 

#7 SD6 R+12.5 Senator Mike Kehoe is term-limited.

Rep. Bernskoetter has done everything possible to lock this seat down from fundraising, to being at every event possible in the district, to seeing his top potential challenger Rep. Jay Barnes bow out of the race this fall. Perhaps most importantly, he secured the endorsement of Senator Mike Kehoe.

You really can’t ever consider this Jefferson City seat in the bank until filing closes as everyone in Jefferson City would love to hold it, but in reality it would be very very tough to dislodge Rep. Bernskoetter’s on his trip across the rotunda to the Senate.

TIP SHEET PREDICTION:  

GENERAL ELECTION: SAFE REPUBLICAN

(R) Rep. Mike Bernskoetter

Contributions this period: $5,350

Contributions this election: $73,896

Cash on hand: $142,683.98

 

#8 SD20 (R+16.1)  Senator Jay Wasson is term-limited.

When the aforementioned agreement between former Representatives Burlison and Hough was completed Eric Burlison’s ticket to the state senate was stamped. He will have no trouble winning this seat and holding it for 8 years.

TIP SHEET PREDICTION:  

GENERAL ELECTION: SAFE REPUBLICAN  

(R) Former Rep. Eric Burlison

Contributions this period: $27,899.76

Contributions this election: $229,903.78

Cash on hand: $317,237.67

 

Senators Seeking Re-Election in 2018

SD2 Onder (R+6.9) Senator Onder is term-limited in 2022.

Senator Onder currently has no serious announced opposition. On the horizon, look for Rep. John Wieman as a top shelf candidate and Rep. Justin Hill as someone who is preparing for the 2022 primary race.

TIP SHEET PREDICTION:  

GENERAL ELECTION: SAFE REPUBLICAN

(R) Sen. Bob Onder

Contributions this period: $35,750.00

Contributions this election: $108,091.24

Cash on hand: $249,095.80

(D) Patrice Billings*

Contributions this period: $3,380.00

Contributions this election: $0.00

Cash on hand: $1,492.95

 

SD 4 (D+24.5) Senator Hummel is term-limited in 2026.

Senator Hummel currently has no serious announced opposition. However, there is a very volatile climate in St. Louis City politics at this time. While it’s overwhelmingly unlikely that he would ever in in jeopardy of being defeated he could see an opponent who would make for an uncomfortable summer pop up.

Further, keep in mind that Senator Hummel is currently completing the unfinished term of former Senator Joe Keavney so he will be eligible to seek another 4 year term in 2022.

TIP SHEET PREDICTION:  

GENERAL ELECTION: SAFE DEMOCRAT

(D) Sen. Jake Hummel

Contributions this period: $12,400.00

Contributions this election: $5,550.00

Cash on hand: $42,854.09

 

SD 8 (R+3.8) Senator Cierpiot is term-limited in 2026.

Senator Cierpiot won the November special election by a comfortable margin in what turned into a 3 way race. In that victory he cemented the eastern Jackson County Republicans behind him and the man who would have been his primary opponent Jacob Turk’s career wilted in a rather bizarre series of questionable at best decisions as Cierpiot surged in the final weeks.  It likely either by law because he ran in the special or because his family garners a personal income from running for US Congress that he won’t be running for state senate in 2018.

While the Democrats put forth a compelling and very savvy candidate in Hillary Shields, this is the only Republican seat in Jackson County and is likely to stay that way in a general election.

This year Cierpiot will be completing the term of Will Kraus and will not be term-limited until 2026.  

TIP SHEET PREDICTION:  

GENERAL ELECTION: LEAN REPUBLICAN

(R) Sen. Mike Cierpiot

Contributions this period: $ $45,720

Contributions this election: $306,219.81

Cash on hand: $17,384.25

 

SD10 (R+4.7) Senator Riddle is term-limited in 2022.

Senator Riddle currently has no serious announced opposition. However, there are rumors that Senator Riddle may not be completely set on running for re-election. In which case look for Rep. Travis Fitzwater to be the leading candidate to replace her. Either way this seat will remain in Republican hands.

TIP SHEET PREDICTION:  

GENERAL ELECTION: LIKELY REPUBLICAN

(R) Sen. Jeanie Riddle

Contributions this period: $9,900.00

Contributions this election: $55,750.00

Cash on hand: $113,744.32

 

SD12 (R+8.4) Senator Hegeman is term-limited in 2022.

Senator Hegeman currently has no serious announced opposition.

TIP SHEET PREDICTION:  

GENERAL ELECTION: SAFE REPUBLICAN

(R) Sen. Dan Hegeman

Contributions this period: $34,925

Contributions this election: $107,125

Cash on hand: $102.174.77

 

SD22 (D+1.2) Senator Hegeman is term-limited in 2022.

Senator Wieland currently has no serious announced opposition as session begins, but the 22nd is a competitive district. However, Senator Wieland is a popular senator whose voting record fits the district well. He has voted with labor and being a JeffCo Republican during the Trump Era is a pretty solid place to be.

The only thing that might change that is that former Rep. Tim Meadows is being urged to run. Under any circumstances he would be a top tier contender, but probably best to hear it from him that he is running before jumping to conclusions.

TIP SHEET PREDICTION:  

GENERAL ELECTION: LEAN REPUBLICAN

(R) Sen. Paul Wieland

Contributions this period: $42,650.00

Contributions this election: $51,757.13

Cash on hand: $136,216.52

 

SD24 (D+3.7) Senator Schupp is term-limited in 2022.

Senator Schupp currently has no announced opposition, but look for the Republicans to not leave this race unopposed. Keep an eye out for former Rep. Sue Allen who would be a top tier candidate. The district’s profile for a Republican is probably best for one without a voting record. In fact that last time Republicans won the district it was with a candidate who claimed to be pro-labor moderate. A similar profile is probably required in order to mount a serious challenge to an incumbent with the profile of Senator Schupp.

It’s probable that the Trump effect that aids Senator Wieland in JeffCo will also likely aid Senator Schupp in her part of West County.

TIP SHEET PREDICTION:  

GENERAL ELECTION: LIKELY DEMOCRAT

(D) Senator Jill Schupp

Contributions this period: $133,930.00

Contributions this election: $33,000.00

Cash on hand: $510,126.72

(R) Sue Allen

Contributions this period: $0.00

Contributions this election: $30,025.00

Cash on hand: $23,277.31

 

SD26 (R+9.8) Senator Schupp is term-limited in 2022.

Senator Schatz currently has no serious announced opposition. On the horizon look for Rep. Alferman to take a serious look at the seat as well as Rep. Nate Tate, and former Rep. Dave Hinson.

TIP SHEET PREDICTION:  

GENERAL ELECTION: SAFE REPUBLICAN

(R) Senator Dave Schatz

Contributions this period: $68,775

Contributions this election: $80,275

Cash on hand: $265,772.88

 

SD28 (R+11.8) Senator Crawford is term-limited in 2026.

After winning her November special election Senator Crawford currently has no serious announced opposition. This year she will be completing the term of now Lt. Governor Mike Parson and will not be term-limited until 2026.

TIP SHEET PREDICTION:  

GENERAL ELECTION: SAFE REPUBLICAN

(R) Sen. Sandy Crawford

Contributions this period: $6,700.00

Contributions this election: $0.00

Cash on hand: $157,114.15

 

OPEN SENATE SEATS IN 2020* – 11*

*SEE SILVEY DENOTATION ON SD 17 DESCRIPTION

SD 1 (D+5.1)  Senator Sifton is term-limited in 2020.

With Sen. Scott Sifton being term-limited in 2020 in one of the few swing districts in the state some fear that there will be a free for all forming to hold the seat. However, if you look on the Democrat side it’s possible that Rep. Burns runs for County Council and Rep. Doug Beck potentially has a clear shot through the primary in a district that he profiles extremely well for.

Look for the Republicans to get behind Rep. Haefner, she would be an excellent profile for a Republican in the seat. It will be tough and expensive and and a great race if it’s Beck vs. Haefner.

(R) Rep. Marsha Haefner

Contributions this period: $1,500.00

Contributions this election: $500.00

Cash on hand: $4,531.97

(D) Rep. Bob Burns

Contributions this period: $10,775.00

Contributions this election: $10,416.04

Cash on hand: $12,926.91

(D) Rep. Doug Beck

Contributions this period: $3,745.00

Contributions this election: $175.00

Cash on hand: $16,731.62

 

SD3 (D+2.4) Senator Romine is term-limited in 2020.

If the Democrats are going to eliminate the Republicans’ supermajority then they have to take back the 3rd. The Republicans are building up a large bench to hold the seat, and that probably starts with Rep. Mike Henderson. Rep. Ben Harris is the leading Democratic candidate, and would fit the mold of the pro-life Democrats that have previously represented the district.

In reality Republicans in this area are still living off of the legacy of former senator and now Rep. Kevin Engler. Senator Romine is certainly cut from his independent mold, if the Republicans can find a candidate to clear the primary in the Romine/Engler mold they likely hold the seat, if not then this could be a prime pick up opportunity in 2020.

(R) Rep. Mike Henderson

Contributions this period: $9,825.00

Contributions this election: $0.00

Cash on hand: $11,298.11

(R) Former Rep. Linda Black (no active committee)

Contributions this period: N/A

Contributions this election: N/A

Cash on hand: N/A

(D) Rep. Ben Harris

Contributions this period: $0.00

Contributions this election: $0.00

Cash on hand: $15,681.25

 

SD5 (D+39.9) Senator Nasheed is term-limited in 2020.

This seat will be a dogfight of a Democratic primary as it always has been. There are three talented politicians seeking the seat. The big question is when the race will happen and how. If Senator Nasheed wins the President of the St. Louis City Board of Aldermen race next spring then the next senator will be selected by a committee vote. Rep. Peters has historically supported by the extremely influential Congressman Clay. Rep. Bruce Franks has been a force of nature since entering politics last year, and Rep. Mike Butler is a very talented coalition builder with a built in constituency and fundraising base however is is running for city office. This will be fun to watch.

(D) Rep. Josh Peters

Contributions this period: $1,300.00

Contributions this election: $0.00

Cash on hand: $2,584.20

(D) Rep. Bruce Franks

Contributions this period: $

Contributions this election: $

Cash on hand: $

(D) Rep. Michael Butler

Contributions this period: $0.00

Contributions this election: $0.00

Cash on hand: $4,312.34

 

SD7 (D+20.8) Senator Holsman is term-limited in 2020.

Year in and year out this south Kansas City senate district produces some of the top Democratic political talent in the state. There are two house members who clearly fit that bill in Reps. Greg Razer and DaRon MaGee. While that primary is still a long ways off if both candidates file it will be another barn burner primary in south Kansas City.

Or is it a long way off? There is the potential for this seat to open up either due to Senator Holsman seeking a city council seat or potentially being a leading figures in a mayoral administration. Look for enterprising representatives to being counting committee votes as filing opens this year.

(D) Rep. Greg Razer

Contributions this period: $5,185.00

Contributions this election: $5,200.00

Cash on hand: $14,658.76

(D) Rep. DaRon McGee

Contributions this period: $10,868.66

Contributions this election: $12,713.95

Cash on hand: $5,932.05

 

SD9 (D+33.9) Senator Curls is term-limited in 2020.

It is a lengthy legacy that Senator Curls will leave behind in 2020, and there are two top tier candidates who could vie to carry on that legacy in House Minority Floor leader Rep. Gail McCann Beatty and Rep. Brandon Ellington. Both are talented politicians and both would be top contenders. Look for Freedom to be very influential in who carries on this legacy. As always is the case in Kansas City it’s possible that Rep. McCann Beatty could choose to seek a city council seat.

(D) House Minority Floor Leader Rep. Gail McCann Beatty

Contributions this period: $0.00

Contributions this election: $2,680.00

Cash on hand: $9,961.32

(D) Rep. Brandon Ellington

Contributions this period: $0.00

Contributions this election: $2,747.56

Cash on hand: $5,017.47

 

SD13 (D+27.5) Senator Walsh is term-limited in 2020.

Senator Walsh took this seat without a very large primary fight in 2012, but that is unlikely to be the case in 2020. There are several legislators that would be viable candidates, and all seem likely to run. Rep. Walker might have to move. Her house district is split the 13th and 14th districts so she could move into the 13th and still be inside of her house district similar to Senator Rizzo last cycle.

(D) Rep. Alan Green

Contributions this period: $710

Contributions this election: $0.00

Cash on hand: $1,456.96

(D) Rep. Cora Faith Walker

Contributions this period: N/A

Contributions this election: N/A

Cash on hand: N/A

(D) Rep. Jay Mosley

Contributions this period: N/A

Contributions this election: N/A

Cash on hand: N/A

 

SD 25 (Libla) R+11.4 Senator Libla is term-limited in 2020.

Senator Libla will leave some big shoes to fill in the bootheel. The dynamics are that Rep. McDaniel and Rone are interested in running, however, the the vast majority of the primary votes are Butler and Stoddard Counties. There is a lot of time before the 2020 primary and don’t be surprised to see Senator Libla encourage a successor from the Poplar Bluff area such as his longtime friend and a man who has traveled the district extensively with him Herman Styles. Butler County is also getting to new representatives in 2018 that could be set for a 2020 race, Jeff Shawan would be the more likely candidate to take advantage of that opportunity.

The Stoddard County Prosecutor Russ Oliver is a political talent on the Republican bench who could unite a large portion of the bootheel and has been a loyal friend to Senator Libla. While Butler County Republican Party Chair Eddy Justice is due for some major favors by the Governor’s Office as he has been a very loyal soldier in their dumpster fire of DESE moves. Typically a state senate seat is too high of a payback for anything in politics, but Justice’s loyalty in the eye of the storm of their total incompetence means he should have their total loyalty for any future move.

(R) Rep. Andrew McDaniel

Contributions this period: $0.00

Contributions this election: $350.00

Cash on hand: $14,231.65

(R) Rep. Steve Cookson

Contributions this period: $0.00

Contributions this election: $7,900.00

Cash on hand: $6,638.23

(R) Rep. Don Rone

Contributions this period: $0.00

Contributions this election: $0.00

Cash on hand: $25,503.80

 

SD27 (R+16.4) Senator Wallingford is term-limited in 2020.

This 2020 primary looks ominously like the 2012 primary, with a well-qualified Scott County candidate attempting to break into Cape Girardeau County against a Cape County candidate. There will likely be several prominent Cape County candidates consider the race, and if one or more jump into the race, such as Cape Girardeau County Presiding Commissioner Clint Tracy, then the race would erupt into a dogfight. If the race is one Cape County candidate versus one Scott County candidate, then Rep. Rehder will have to do something to avoid history repeating itself.

(R) Rep. Kathy Swan

Contributions this period: $950.00

Contributions this election: $0.00

Cash on hand: $51,724.35

(R) Rep. Holly Rehder

Contributions this period: $9,835.00

Contributions this election: $15,500.00

Cash on hand: $154,614.64

 

SD29 (R+19.9) Senator Sater is term-limited in 2020.

House Budget Chairman Scott Fitzpatrick will succeed Senator Sater should he choose to run. If not, it will be a typical southwest Missouri primary battle.

(R) Rep. Scott Fitzpatrick

Contributions this period: $1,000.00

Contributions this election: $10,000.00

Cash on hand: $72,481.53

 

SD31 (R+6.2) Senator Emery is term-limited in 2020.

There seems to always be a primary in this race between the Cass County candidate and a candidate who is not from Cass County. Rep. Bondon will be the best candidate from Cass County, but you have to assume another current or former legislator steps up to challenge him. However, he starts any race as the favorite.

(R) Rep. Jack Bondon

Contributions this period: $2,500.00

Contributions this election: $2,635.00

Cash on hand: $44,380.52

 

SD33 (R+15.7) Senator Cunningham is term-limited in 2020.

There was a three way primary that Senator Cunningham survived from in 2012, and there very well could be a repeat of history in 2020. Reps. Ross, Rhoads, and Fraker are solid legislators and three way races are always complicated. We’re hearing a two way is much more likely than another three way primary this time. If that is the case look for the better fundraiser to emerge as the heir to Senator Cunningham’s seat. It also probably important to keep in mind that Rep. Fraker has to be viewed as a likely candidate to join the administration as he was one of Greitens’ earliest supporters and has remained so even as he has openly attacked the legislature Fraker is a member of. If he doesn’t join the administration you have to assume that loyalty is rewarded with support in a potential senate race.

(R) Rep. Shawn Rhoads

Contributions this period: $2,300.00

Contributions this election: $10,051.00

Cash on hand: $26,150.74

(R) Rep. Robert Ross

Contributions this period: $2,500.00

Contributions this election: $250.00

Cash on hand: $28,215.41

(R) Rep. Lyndall Fraker

Contributions this period: $2,000.00

Contributions this election: $250.00

Cash on hand: $13,381.76

 

STATE SENATORS STANDING FOR RE-ELECTION IN 2020 – 5

SD 11 (D+8.9) Senator Rizzo is term-limited in 2024.

(D) Senator John Rizzo

Contributions this period: $4,000.00

Contributions this election: $1,000.00

Cash on hand: $11,805.91

 

SD 15 (R+9.3) Senator Koenig is term-limited in 2024.

(R) Senator Andrew Koenig

Contributions this period: $75.00

Contributions this election: $0.00

Cash on hand: $5,390.74

 

SD 19 (R+0.7) Senator Rowden is term-limited in 2024.

(R) Senator Caleb Rowden

Contributions this period: $17,450.00

Contributions this election: $305.00

Cash on hand: $20,374.07

 

SD 21 (R+4.9) Senator Hoskins is term-limited in 2024.

(R) Senator Denny Hoskins

Contributions this period: $12,891.61

Contributions this election: $0.00

Cash on hand: $64,368.56

 

SD 23 (R+3.3) Senator Eigel is term-limited in 2024.

(R) Senator Bill Eigel

Contributions this period: $27,900

Contributions this election: $27,900

Cash on hand: $46,930.63

Scott Faughn is the publisher of The Missouri Times, owner of the Clayton Times in Clayton, Mo; SEMO Times in Poplar Bluff, Mo.; and host of the only statewide political television show, This Week in Missouri Politics.