2024 Senate Tipsheet part one

#6 SD17 D+7.74% Senator Arthur is term-limited.

PRIMARY: SAFE NEURENBERN  PRIMARY: SAFE HURLBERT
GENERAL: LEAN DEMOCRAT
Because Senator Arthur was sworn in at veto session after her special election she cannot run for another term. That will leave a top-tier general election next fall.
The parties seem to be lining up behind Rep. Maggie Neurenbern and Clay County Auditor Victor Hurlbert.
Rep. Neurenbern will cast herself in the mold of Senator Arthur as someone who is passionate but can reach across the aisle to produce for this suburban district. Hurlbert, a veteran, will cast himself as a pragmatic problem solver as well. I understand that he will have no trouble raising the funds necessary.  Because of the trends of the district, she starts off with the lead.

Rep. Maggie Neurrenbern
Total Raised this Cycle: $6,758
Cash on Hand: $87,545
Northland Forward PAC
Cash on Hand: $1.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $87,546

Clay County Auditor Victor Hurlbert
Total Raised this Cycle: $825
Cash on Hand: $427
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $427

#7 SD27 R+48.44% Senator Rehder could seek re-election.
PRIMARY: SAFE REHDER GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
This is another race that completely depends on if Senator Rehder is running for Lt. Governor or running for re-election. If she is running for re-election then it’s possible a candidate from Cape County will give her a tepid run, but in any calculation, she should be easily re-elected.
However, it seems likely that she will run for Lt. Governor, and in that case, there will be a host of legislators who likely throw their hats in. The list starts with Rep. Burger a potential candidate, Rep. Rick Francis would be another potential contender, a former failed ‘20 house candidate, possibly Rep. Hovis or Rep. Voss, or possibly another Cape County folks hop in. Rep. Burger would have to forgo a promising house career which has him at the top of the running for Floor Leader to get in, so there is no guarantee there. Former State Rep. Candidate Will Perry will likely run as well.

Senator Rehder
Total Raised this Cycle: $12,738
Cash on Hand: $164,977
Southern Drawl PAC
Cash on Hand: $50,877
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $215,854

#8 SD3 R+35.8% Senator Gannon could seek re-election.
PRIMARY: SAFE GANNON GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
There has been speculation that Senator Gannon might not seek re-election. If she does then she likely cruises to re-election. If she doesn’t then it could be a reverse-engineered version of the race from four years ago.
Four years ago there were two St. Francois County candidates against one JeffCo candidate in a district that was weighted toward JeffCo.
Today the district is considerably less JeffCo with the additions of Crawford County and there could be just one St. Francois County candidate in House Speaker Pro Tem Mike Henderson against Rep Cyndi Bucheit-Cordway and JeffCo Sheriff Dave Marshak. 

Senator Gannon
Total Raised this Cycle: $2,000
Cash on Hand: $10,149
Six County PAC
Cash on Hand: $17,746
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $ 27,895

#9 SD31 R+29.09% Senator Brattin is seeking re-election.
PRIMARY: SAFE BRATTIN GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
This race is entirely dependent on if Rep. Houx decides to enter the race. If he does then this race shoots to the top state senate primary in the state, if not this race will compete with Senator Razer for the most boring.

Senator Rick Brattin
Contributions this quarter: $5,400
Cash on hand: $30,535
True Patriot PAC
Cash on hand: $11,679
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $42,214

#10 SD5 D+ 80.86% Senator Roberts is seeking re-election.
PRIMARY: LIKELY ROBERTS GENERAL: SAFE DEMOCRAT
Senator Roberts took on Congresswoman Bush last cycle and there are rumors that she could help fund an opponent for his re-election this cycle. Regardless of what you read on Twitter, even if that does happen he is a terrific fundraiser and will start off the race with a healthy lead. However, the City of St. Louis politics is always a volatile world, and never more so than today.

Senator Roberts
Total Raised this Cycle: $5,100
Cash on Hand: $589
STL Democratic Coalition PAC
Cash on Hand: $9,796
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $10,385

#11 SD1 D+8.08% Senator Beck is seeking re-election.
PRIMARY: SAFE BECK GENERAL: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
This could have been a tougher re-election for Senator Beck, but redistricting was kind to him and the new district is much more kind to Senator Beck. You could see Republicans attempt to recruit Rep. Murphy or O’Donnell into a race, but the climate would have to be very very favorable for Republicans to defeat Senator Beck for re-election the new 1st.

Senator Beck
Total Raised this Cycle: $62,913
Cash on Hand: $185,740
DougPac
Cash on Hand: $68,944
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $254,684

#12 SD13 D+63.2% Senator Mosley is seeking re-election.
PRIMARY: SAFE MOSLEY GENERAL: SAFE DEMOCRAT
Senator Mosely is in an area where there are several competitive primaries waged against incumbents, even so, she should be heavily favored for re-election against any opponent. One caveat to that would be if Rep. Proudie decided to make a bid. That would send the race up the list.

Senator Mosley
Total Raised this Cycle: $0.00
Cash on Hand: $58,570
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $58,570

#13 SD33 R+57.16% Senator Eslinger is seeking re-election.
PRIMARY: LIKELY ESLINGER  GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Senator Eslinger has had several threats of primary challenges, but thus far each has had reasons not to make the race. Look for that trend to continue and she will be re-elected handily.
The new 33rd is about 45% Taney and Stone Counties, and if you had to predict that is where the seat gravitates to after she is term-limited unless Rep. Travis Smith seeks to replace her.
Now I could see one of her senate colleagues recruiting an opponent against her, but I don’t see that opponent seriously challenging her. The math likely comes up where there are too many other seats for her opponents in the caucus to be able to afford significant resources in the 33rd.

Senator Eslinger
Total Raised this Cycle: $6,500
Cash on Hand: $63,323
Conservative Leadership of the Ozarks
Cash on Hand: $39,887
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $103,210

#14 SD29 R+54.04% Senator Moon is seeking re-election.
PRIMARY: SAFE MOON GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Last cycle senators who weren’t in the conservative caucus had opponents recruited against them. Well, there has been a long list of threats that there would be a primary challenge to Senator Moon. Even if one is found, and even if that candidate is well funded Senator Moon can get more with less than any senate candidate in the state.
That plus MATA’s incentive to defend him makes him a highly unlikely candidate to be defeated in seeking a second term. 

Senator Moon
Total Raised this Cycle: $0.00
Cash on Hand: $52,294
Life and Liberty MO PAC
Cash on Hand: $8,042
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $60,336

#15 SD25 R+54.04% Senator Bean is seeking re-election.
PRIMARY: SAFE BEAN GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
The real truth of the 25th is that you have a roughly even number of people in the hills and the flatlands. Senator Bean won because three people from the hills ran against one from the flatlands. As an incumbent, you would need three or four flatlanders and one person from the hills to even make it a race. Even in an environment where most every senator is challenged for re-election, Senator Bean should have no trouble seeking re-election.

Senator Bean
Total Raised this Cycle: $8,350
Cash on Hand: $121,526
Conservative Leadership for Missouri
Cash on Hand: $N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $121,526

#16 SD9 D+62.8% Senator Washington is seeking re-election.
PRIMARY: SAFE WASHINGTON GENERAL: SAFE DEMOCRAT
Senator Washington will have no trouble seeking re-election.

Senator Washington
Total Raised this Cycle: $0.00
Cash on Hand: $84,257
Eastside Forward PAC
Cash on Hand: $N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $84,257

#17 SD7 D+7.74% Senator Razer is seeking re-election.
PRIMARY: SAFE RAZER GENERAL: SAFE DEMOCRAT
Senator Razer will have no trouble in his re-election bid, earning the title of most boring race in the state. 

Senator Razer
Total Raised this Cycle: $530
Cash on Hand: $108,538
KC Neighbors for Progress
Cash on Hand: $61,069
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $169,607