Congress
CD 5 PRIMARY: TOSS UP GENERAL: LEAN REPUBLICAN 

The primary field in the newly created CD5 was a little slow to develop, but most of the court battles are over and the newly drawn more Republican friendly district will most likely be the district this race is fought in. 

There is an east vs. west flavor to the primary as Senator Rick Brattin from Cass County which while in the western part of the district is not in the new CD5, but you can run for Congress no matter where you live. Representing the eastern part of the district is Taylor Burks. 

Brattin might be more familiar to political types, but Burks is a veteran who has previously ran for Congress and served as Boone County Clerk. Brett Hueffmeier is a former Bond and Ashcroft staffer, the only candidate with serious money from Jackson County, and has put a sizable investment into the race. The overall population of the district leans eastward however the primary electorate is more balanced.

That brings us to the money. Senator Brattin hasn’t been the top fundraiser in most of these competitive races. He was outraised by Bondon in his first senate race, and outraised by Houx in his re-election. Both of which he won handily. It’s looking like he will have to overcome a spending gap in this race unless his former conservative caucus members Congressmen Onder and Burlison can bring some big spenders from Washington D.C. to the table. They were half in on his last run for Congress four years ago against Alford so he is familiar with those waters. Money is where Hueffmeier could be key. If he spends the money he loaned his campaign in the Kansas City media market that is bad news for Brattin. 

Burks has proven himself to be a talented fundraiser each time out. This time he kicked in $900,000 of his own money. He will need to spend it to win this race. 

As with every congressional primary, if Trump decides to endorse then the race is over. 

Whoever wins will have Missouri legend Emanuel Cleaver waiting for them. This race is not over. While the district leans republican, a fully funded Cleaver campaign has a shot. With Trump being responsible for $4 gas, a real shot to win. 

Bottom line: Burks needs to spend his money and keep the D.C. crowd out of the race. Brattin needs some D.C. money to come in on his side. Hueffmeier needs to make a splash to get in the game. 

Brett Hueffmeier
Cash on Hand: $195,028.39
Expenditures: $59,389.95
Candidate Loans: $175,020.00
Total Cash on Hand: $195,028.39 

Taylor Burks
Cash on Hand: $1,044,144.19
Expenditures: $1,863.18
Candidate Loans: $900,000.00
Show Me Valor PAC
Cash On Hand: 0.00
Total Cash on Hand: $1,044,144.19

Rick Brattin
Cash on Hand: $113,972.00
Expenditures:  $2,466.66
Total Cash on Hand: $113,972.00

CD 6 PRIMARY: TOSS UP GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN 

With no statewide primaries, CD6 will be the hottest race in the state. Once the legendary Congressman Graves announced his retirement, radio host Chris Stigall was the first to enter the race and pick up the Congressman’s coveted endorsement. Now I know what you’re thinking: a Congressman’s endorsement doesn’t carry the weight it used to…well, that doesn’t apply here as Sam Graves has delivered and delivered and delivered for north Missouri. Along with that endorsement, Stigall has pulled support from several national conservative figures, including some close to the Trump administration, and has that Graves machine, which, if you’ll notice, does pretty well for itself in north Missouri. 

Nathan Willett has built some serious name ID in the Kansas City media market as the lone republican on the city council, and is hustling. Last week, he put out a solid list of his agriculture steering committee that included Blake Hurst and Todd Hays. He is also touting some of his connections to the Trump world. 

However, the biggest development in the race is that two members of Congress have confirmed that during a recent trip to Washington, he told the Freedom Caucus that if he were elected, he would join their caucus. Keep in mind that two of the last three new Republican members of Congress that Missouri has elected are members of the Freedom Caucus. 

The negative is already flying in the race with large radio buys connecting Willett to some of the woke polities of the city of Kansas City, and Willett using old clips of Stigall’s radio show against him. This one will be intense, and personal, and negative…just like a Republican primary should be. 

As with every congressional primary, if Trump decides to endorse, then the race is over. 

Bottom line: Stigall has a lot of institutional support from the Graves machine, and Willett is hustling. It will be a long, hot summer north of 70. 

Chris Stigall
Cash on Hand: N/A
Come and Take It PAC
Cash On Hand: $82,250.72
Total Cash on Hand: $82,250.72

Nathan Willett
Cash on Hand: $1.04
Expenditures: 0.00
Total Cash on Hand: $1.04

County Executive Races
St. Louis County Exec Race PRIMARY: TOSS UP GENERAL: SAFE DEMOCRAT
Jake Zimmerman
Cash on Hand: $854,154.77
Candidate Loans: $300,053.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $854,154.77
Sen. Brian Williams
Cash on Hand: $274,519.36
B PAC
Cash on Hand: $224,612.04
STLCO PAC
Cash on Hand: $460,413.82
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $959,545.22

Sen. Angela Mosley
Cash on Hand: (Because of the failure of the MEC, I could not pull up this number)
Mosley PAC LLC
Cash on Hand: $7,600.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: n/a

The St. Louis County Executive race is increasingly shaping up as a clash between establishment infrastructure and candidate talent as Democrats begin choosing sides ahead of 2026. 

Jake Zimmerman appears to currently hold the institutional advantage in the field, backed by deep county relationships, labor support, and a formidable fundraising operation. Zimmerman recently secured the endorsement of the Greater St. Louis Labor Council and reported more than $854,000 cash on hand, including roughly $300,000 in candidate loans.

At the same time, few around are willing to count out Sen. Brian Williams. Williams continues to maintain strong support within portions of the St. Louis business community and has built what is already becoming a serious financial and political network. While his official committee reported roughly $274,000 cash on hand, allied groups, including B PAC and STLCO PAC, pushed the broader Williams orbit close to the $1 million mark combined. 

Many operatives also continue to view Williams as one of the more naturally gifted campaigners in Missouri Democratic politics, with the ability to significantly improve as voters tune into the race.

Several Democrats also quietly note that Sen. Angela Walton Mosley’s remaining in the race may currently benefit Zimmerman by splitting portions of the coalition that might otherwise consolidate behind Williams. 

A recent Tulchin Research poll, widely believed around political circles to have been commissioned by allies of Zimmerman, reflected many of those dynamics. The survey showed Zimmerman leading the field early, though Williams posted some of the strongest movement after voters heard positive messaging about the candidates.

Jackson County Exec Race PRIMARY: TOSS UP GENERAL: SAFE DEMOCRAT
Democrats:
Bill Baird
Cash on Hand: $1,325.83
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $1,325.83

Manny Abarca
Cash on Hand: $1,203.48
Candidate Loans: 5,902.81
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $1,203.48

Holmes Osborne
Cash on Hand: N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: N/A

Ryan Meyer
Cash on Hand: N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: N/A 

Stacy Lake
Cash on Hand: $12,271.87
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $12,271.87 

Dan Tarwater
Cash on Hand: N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: N/A 

Republicans:
Alan Rohlfing
Cash on Hand: N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: N/A 

This race continues to be built up as a pretty major deal in Jackson County, even after they managed to throw Frank White out of office in a special election. The major shakeup we saw as Interim County Exec Phil LeVota backed out of the race, leaving the front-runner spot, I believe, down to three candidates. 

Bill Baird is one of those front-runners. Baird served as the former Mayor of Lee’s Summit and has been a strong force behind the City’s growth over the last few years. His time as mayor has seen major economic growth for the city, as other outer areas of Kansas City, like Independence, have slowed and staggered. He also pushed for strong public safety policies that have kept the city safer as KC crime continued to increase. Baird is coming into this race strong after LeVota backed out, and he has even nabbed the Missouri Laborers’ endorsement, which is a major deal in KC politics. Baird’s main issue will come from another front runner, that being Dan Tarwater. 

A familiar name in Jackson County politics, Dan Tarwater spent nearly three decades representing the 4th District on the Jackson County Legislature and remains one of the county’s most recognizable political figures. After narrowly missing appointment as interim county executive in 2024 and an unsuccessful Kansas City Council bid in 2023, Tarwater is once again seeking countywide office.

In previous races, Tarwater was backed by Freedom Inc., the FOP, and KC Construction Trades, all being major endorsements to have in the KC area and Jackson County at large. Tarwater’s main concern to handle is the fight over who will get the Freedom Inc endorsement as well as him and Baird possibly splitting the vote against the final frontrunner. 

Stacy Lake is the final of the three front-runners in this race and is another familiar name to the County Exec ballot after she previously challenged Frank White in his last re-election race. Lake is a well-known attorney in the area and is going to benefit heavily by being the only woman on the ballot. Lake is also presenting herself as the more left-leaning candidate in the race, which will come in handy when running against multiple other democrats. Lake will also benefit from being the only black candidate on the roster as well. 

Manny Abarca enters the race after serving on the Jackson County Legislature since 2022 and most recently as its chairman. A former member of both the Kansas City and Hickman Mills school boards, Abarca would be a serious contender and would bring a high profile and established political base to the race, but he is facing significant headwinds stemming from ongoing legal issues and controversies that have generated substantial public attention. 

Holmes Osborne and Ryan Meyer both fall into the same category as being undefined candidates in need of more outreach. Osborne does have the benefit of being a Trustee on the board for Metropolitan Community College and also a CFA.

Bottom Line: This race ultimately boils down to Baird, Tarwater, and Lake being the three leading figures. Baird’s goal should be to promote his time as Lee’s Summit mayor and offer that strategy as a countywide one. Tarwater’s previous connections could easily be his ticket to success, along with his strong name ID. Lake benefits from being in a field of white males and could outflank the other candidates in a primary where most voters are democrats. 

 

St. Charles Exec Race PRIMARY: TOSS UP GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Bill Eigel
Cash on Hand: $475,413.80
Candidate Loans: $100,000.00
BILL PAC
Cash on Hand: $74,621.25
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $550,035.05

Steve Ehlmann
Cash on Hand: $365,521.46
Real Conservatives for St. Charles
Cash on Hand: $82,507.50
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $448,028.96

Jason Law
Cash on Hand: $248,132.49
Law and Order PAC
Cash on Hand: $6,572.24
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $254,704.73

The last truly competitive County Exec race is over in St. Charles with a three-way race between County Exec and longtime Republican official Steve Ehlmann, former state Senator Bill Eigel, and Lake St. Louis Mayor Jason Law. 

Few politicians have shaped modern St. Charles County Republican politics more than Steve Ehlmann. For years, Ehlmann has been one of the region’s dominant political figures, helping build the local Republican Party into the force it is today. His countywide name recognition remains unmatched, and even if opponents are able to close the fundraising gap, Ehlmann’s longstanding reputation and voter familiarity provide a significant advantage. He has also continued to post strong fundraising numbers, demonstrating that his political network remains largely intact.

The challenge for Ehlmann is that the political environment in St. Charles County has become increasingly restless. Voters frustrated with government and eager for change may be inclined to direct some of that frustration toward long-serving officeholders. Additionally, Ehlmann’s earlier decision to announce he would not seek another term before later reentering the race has created an opening for opponents to argue that it is time for new leadership.

Bill Eigel enters the race as perhaps the strongest campaigner in the field. Since his time in the Senate, Eigel has become synonymous with a particular brand of St. Charles County conservatism and has successfully tapped into the anti-establishment energy that has become increasingly influential within the Republican electorate. His ability to connect with those voters makes him a formidable contender.

Meanwhile, Jason Law has run an active campaign and continues to work hard on the trail. 

Bottom line: If both Law and Ehlmann remain in the race through August, the anti-Ehlmann vote could consolidate behind Eigel while more traditional Republican voters split between the other two candidates.

Jefferson County Exec PRIMARY SAFE WHITNEY GENERAL SAFE REPUBLICAN
Tim Whitney is the current Chief Deputy of Jefferson County, the next County Executive, and a name you should get familiar with in Missouri politics. His chief opponent left the race after filing, and now Whitney is on pace to replace Dennis Gannon. 

Earlier in the race, one JeffCo pol told me that he didn’t think the voters of JeffCo wanted the Sheriff’s Department in the County Executive office. I told him I thought that is exactly what JeffCo wanted, and it turns out I was right. 

Tim Whitney
Cash on Hand: $84,170.81
Citizens United to Back the Blue:
Cash on Hand: $11,128.08
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $95,298.89

John Stockton
Cash on Hand: N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: N/A

Cole County Circuit Judge
There is one judicial circuit that impacts everyone in the state, and it’s the Cole County Circuit. Every case involving state policy starts out at the Cole County courthouse, and this year there is a contested race pitting sitting Judge Stephan “Cotton” Walker against veteran and Assistant Attorney General Jeff Suddy.

Walker is a former elected Democrat who switched parties to run for Associate Circuit Judge and is one of, if not the most liberal, elected judges in the state. He wrote the highly controversial and, most pro-life advocates say, very pro-choice biased ballot language in 2024 in a close election. Walker raised $4,000 last quarter and has fundraised throughout the cycle. He has raised money from attorneys who practice in front of him, and in the case of Brenda Hatfield, $1,000 from the wife of Chuck Hatfield, who frequently appears in front of him on behalf of a host of clients representing pro-choice and other traditionally liberal and democratic interests. He also raised $500 from Barack Obama’s U.S. Attorney, the outspoken pro-choice lawyer Rich Callahan. 

The battle lines are pretty well drawn as conservatives are aligning behind Assistant Attorney General Jeff Suddy. Suddy is an Air Force veteran and longtime prosecutor who has attracted a host of supporters who are looking to flip the seat to a conservative and pro-life judge on this highly impactful court. This is the exact type of judgeship groups that oppose the Missouri Plan, and have discussed getting involved in. However, many have criticized groups such as the Federalist Society for merely being a funding arm to shove Ivy Leaguers with little connection to the state down the throats of Missouri Republican voters. Candidly, they make a pretty persuasive point. 

However, this might be the exact type of race they could get involved with in order to actually advance a conservative cause in Missouri that involves a veteran not an Ivy Leaguer. He filed his committee organization after the deadline to report.  

Bottom line: This will be an interesting case to see if Cole County voters want a RINO or a pro-life conservative, and an interesting case to see if some of the groups are actually for conservative causes being advanced in Missouri or just Ivy Leagues causes advanced in Missouri. 

Judge Stephan “Cotton” Walker
Raised last quarter: $4,000
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $29,411

Prosecutor Jeff Suddy
Cash on Hand: N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: N/A