State Senate Tipsheet: July 2026

The cycle in the Missouri Senate begins with a 24-10 Republican majority. Of the 17 returning senators, there are 10 returning Republican incumbents: Senators Bean, Brattin, Burger, Gregory 15, Gregory 21, Henderson, Hudson, Moon, Nicola, Schnelting, and 7 returning incumbent Democrats: Senators Beck, Lewis, Mosley, Nurrenbern, Roberts, Washington, and Webber. Senator Brattin is running for Congress which means his seat could be open until March or April, but would be a safe Republican seat. 

Republicans are almost certain to hold SD 2, SD6, SD10, SD12, SD16, SD28, SD20, SD22, SD26, SD28, SD32, and SD34. While Democrats are just as certain to hold SD4, SD14, and SD24. After those predictable outcomes, the map will stand at 22-10. 

SD8 and SD30 are the competitive races that, at this point, go either way, so as of the July reports, things stand at 22-10-2.

Here is the race-by-race breakdown ranked by the most competitive primary elections.

#1 SD 6 Senator Mike Bernskoetter is term-limited. TOSS UP

SD6 is the living definition of a toss up, with the most mobility, and likely to stay that way through election day. Missouri Right to Life gave Vogel their sole endorsement, which will be a big boost to his efforts. The case for Vogel is that he has the most money on hand, has already been hit with negative, and with his service as an Army Ranger has arguably the best story to tell at the end. Further, there are some serious checks rolling into Vogel’s PAC. His campaign is being run by the Barklage Group with Axiom also involved. He has already received five-figure checks from Senator Olaughlin’s and Mike Rayner’s PACs which should fully fund his efforts through election day. 

Rep. Rudy Veit has spent decades building a list of friends in central Missouri. He arguably started the race with the most votes he could count on, and very, very few of them are movable. His race is being ran by Jon Ratliff who has a strong resume of winning races in central Missouri. The question will be what is his ceiling. The case for Veit is that he has a rock-solid base and the more fragmented the race gets that base looks more and more like enough to win. 

Camden County Presiding Commissioner Ike Skelton is one of the most entertaining candidates of the cycle. He has a solid reputation with the right-wing conservatives, and the lake’s own Sophia Shore running his campaign. Skelton has an oppo file on financial issues and some anti-Trump Facebook posts. He also got in a little trouble for taking down some Flock cameras. However, in real life it’s actually a positive because 99% of the people voting in this primary love what he did. He has struggled to raise money, but the Carpenters came in with some much-needed financial help. The case for Skelton is that he has a base on the right, and in Camden County. 

Former Jefferson City City Councilman Derrick Spicer is running a fun campaign touting his endorsement of the greatest shortstop to ever play the game in Ozzie Smith and is making the most of his endorsement by the Firefighters Union. His campaign is benign ran by James Harris. The case for Spicer is that as Skelton is attacked, he picks up some votes at the lake, and as Vogel and Viet get attacked he picks up some votes on Cole. 

Dr. Lisa Thomas is a former Rep. from the lake and has put in some of her own money. She is attempting to take advantage of the multi-candidate Cole County field and had it to herself until Skelton switched gears and ran for senate. She also funded a PAC that mailed an attack on Vogel over the 4th of July weekend. The case for Thomas is probably a long shot, but it would be that she can self-fund a barrage at the end and come in and steal one. 

Rep. Rudy Veit

Cash In: $30,364.60

Cash Out: $41,896.61

Cash on Hand: $282,771.93

Candidate Loans: $250,000.00 

Central Missouri Leadership PAC

Cash In: $10,000.00

Cash Out: $0.00

Cash on Hand: $10,000.00

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $292,771.93

Councilman Derrick Spicer

Cash In: $30,364.60

Cash Out: $41,896.61

Cash on Hand: $191,190.98

Spicer for Senate PAC

Cash In: $31,870.00

Cash Out: $33,209.14

Cash on Hand: $30,450.38

Candidate Loans: $100,000.00

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $221,641.36

Jake Vogel

Cash In: $366,790.56

Cash Out: $67,642.10

Cash on Hand: $391,951.63

Candidate Loans: $311,019.76

Lead the Way PAC

Cash In: $54,600.02

Cash Out: $25,521.17

Cash on Hand: $61,022.11

Candidate Loans: $15,198.18

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $372,041.87

Dr. Lisa Thomas

Cash In: $50.00

Cash Out: $117,939.21

Cash on Hand: $119,842.53

Candidate Loans: $264,800.00

Missourians for Ethical & Transparent Government: 

Cash In: $60,000.00

Cash Out: $32,825.94

Cash on Hand: $27,246.16

Candidate Loans: $60,000.00

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $119,842.53

Ike Skelton

Cash In: $23,375.20

Cash Out: $8,094.18

Cash on Hand: $15,281.02

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $15,281.02

#2 SD 18 Senator Cindy O’Laughlin is term-limited. TOSS UP

This race hasn’t gotten some of the attention as a few of the others, but is just as tight. Rep. Ed Lewis has Axiom running this race, and they won a very competitive primary eight years ago winning the race with Senator O’Laughlin. He has the AFP and the MRL endorsement. The case for Lewis is that in a race where no candidate is very well known he has the most money to put himself over the top. 

Rep. Sharpe has all the typical characteristics that voters in NEMO typically love: he is a farmer. A farmer who looks and talks like a farmer, because he is. He has the FOP and the Farm Bureau endorsement, with Rafliff running the campaign and Barklage on the PAC. He has self-funded a large portion of his campaign and seems like he could do more. The case for Sharpe is that he can put his own money in to help compete with Lewis and has the best story of the three for the district to tell. 

Dusty Blue has run an incredible campaign taking himself from someone who didn’t register in a poll to currently leading most of them. His campaign is run by Sophia Shore and his message is simple: anger. Fortunately for him anger is in. He has built a very loyal following and without question is hustling the district. He has put $100,000 of his own money into the race, but doesn’t appear to have spent it yet. While he is up now, he does have some negatives dropping on him. He is currently up in this race, only time will tell if attacks wilt his lead. The case for Blue is that he is up in the polls, and it’s too late to bring him down. Also, he may have some friends in the legal profession to help him pick up the tab to protect his lead.

Rep. Ed Lewis 

Cash In: $102,430.00

Cash Out: $74,907.85

Cash on Hand: $62,652.43

Candidate Loans: $50,000.00

Rural Missouri Values PAC: 

Cash In: $63,000.00

Cash Out: $21,706.00

Cash on Hand: $51,553.14

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $114,205.57

Rep. Greg Sharpe 

Cash In: $44,121.09

Cash Out: $44,917.77

Cash on Hand: $43,633.00

Candidate Loans: $115,000.00

Protect NEMO VALUES PAC: 

Cash In: $21,000.00

Cash Out: $0.00

Cash on Hand: $21,000.00

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $64,633.00

Dusty Blue

Cash In: $35,368.44

Cash Out: $36,681.67

Cash on Hand: $94,933.79

Candidate Loans: $100,000.00

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $94,933.79

#3 SD 16 Senator Justin Brown is term-limited. LEAN HARDWICK 

This race has evolved for the last three years and is still evolving less than three weeks out. Rep. Hardwick has been the frontrunner and still is. With that comes some fundraising advantages and with that comes the negative attacks from the other two candidates. He has a massive cash on hand advantage and the best story to tell with that money. His campaign is run by Sophia Shore with Axiom running his PAC. You can tell he is in the lead because his opponents spend a lot of their time attacking him. 

The case for Hardwick is that he is a veteran running in a race where there is no candidate from the largest two vote pots in Rolla and Lebanon so with his money lead he can best make his case to the voters in those areas with no hometown candidate. 

Former Rep. Hannah Kelly is running a very good campaign and is very much in this race. She has locked down her home county, something her opponents can’t say because they both hail from Pulaski. Kelly has been working Laclede hard and I would expect her to win or be right there in the largest county. With Hardwick receiving a lot of VLT support she has been the beneficiary of the casinos betting big on her. The case for Kelly is that with both her and Mayhew hitting Hardwick she pulls him down enough to win. 

Rep. Don Mayhew is a guy who you always know is around and is always remembered when he is. He is out of Pulaski County, but has done business all over the area with a broad base of contacts. He has $50k on hand, but will he spend it to promote himself or hit Hardwick? The case for Mayhew is that with everyone attacking Hardwick he takes his base and picks up enough voters who are peeled off Hardwick to beat out Kelly. 

Rep. Bill Hardwick

Cash In: $24,725.00

Cash Out: $84,530.78

Cash on Hand: $146,042.11

Missouri Enterprise Fund

Cash In: $162,883.62

Cash Out: $68,126.03

Cash on Hand: $210,497.69

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $356,539.80

Rep. Don Mayhew

Cash In: $40,050.00

Cash Out: $19,844.29

Cash on Hand: $51,682.76

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $51,682.76

Rep. Hannah Kelly

Cash In: $24,350.25

Cash Out: $43,047.21

Cash on Hand: $44,013.66

Esther PAC

Cash In: $53,500.00

Cash Out: $1,850.00

Cash on Hand: $60,101.70

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $104,115.36

#4 SD 10  Senator Travis Fitzwater is going to MTC. LEAN DEERING

This race continues to tighten between Rep. Tricia Byrnes and Cattleman’s Mike Deering. Deering has received the backing of several major groups including  interests like the Carpenters and has received a public endorsement from the FOP, Firefighters, and Farm Bureau, as well as managed to split the MRL endorsement with

Deering held a well-attended kickoff with Mike Kehoe and Mike Parson both showing up to support him. He came out with a strong quarter raising over $300k with notable contributions to his PAC from Senator Fitzwater, $20k from Missouri Soybeans, $50k from Senator Black’s PAC, $10k from Senator O’Laughlin’s PAC, and $50k from the Carpenters PAC. The case for Deering is that he will run very well in the western portion of the district and use his endorsements on the ground and his fundraising advantage to hold his own in the suburbs. Essentially, he will run the Kurtis Gregory campaign and win. 

Byrnes has essentially gone to the other side of most of Deering’s endorsements to fundraise. While all of that support matters if she wins it will be because MATA ponied up the dollars to elect her. However, don’t let that discount her efforts as she has run a very strong race. She did have a health issue which kept her in the hospital and slowed her down some, but is back at it now. The case for Byrnes is that she has a geographical advantage being from the suburbs and has the money to make that advantage stick. 

Cattleman’s VP Mike Deering

Cash In: $109,769.18

Cash Out: $28,655.40

Cash on Hand: $109,141.76

Cut the Bull PAC: 

Cash In: $201,699.00

Cash Out: $16,059.45

Cash on Hand: $185,639.55

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $294,781.31

Rep. Tricia Byrnes (No July Quarterly as of July 19)

Cash In: n/a

Cash Out: n/a

Cash on Hand: n/a

Candidate Loans: $81,286.23

Values First PAC:

Cash In: $53,251.00

Cash Out: $4,100.00

Cash on Hand: $52,056.00

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: n/a

#5 SD 28 Senator Sandy Crawford is term-limited. TOSS UP 

This race has turned into a slugging match between Brad Pollitt and Sam Alexander as both continue to hit each other with oppo mailers, with questions about Alexander’s unpaid property taxes being the latest issue to hit doors. Pollitt has held a strong financial lead since the start of the race and has seen checks from Missouri Soybeans for $20k, Senators O’Laughlin and Crawford totalling $60k, and the carpenters who gave him $50k. Pollitt still holds a tight grip over the race due to the splitting by both Alexander and Chuck Lentz both being from Bolivar. Brad also has seen endorsements from AFP, the Carpenters, and Missouri Farm Bureau. The case for Pollitt is that he has the money advantage, the geography advantage, and being the more experienced in winning races. 

Alexander has come in with a serious personal loan with it now totalling $123,000.00 as well as a $25k donation from his wife. Alexander did see a sole endorsement from Missouri Right to Life which is coveted in Republican primaries. He has been running an aggressive race with no qualms about attacking Pollitt. Moreover, he has been knocking doors in this district for at least a year and a half at this point. He has also deftly taken advantage of a movement in Sedalia unhappy with anyone currently in office. This group was a key part of unseating an incumbent mayor in April and as these types of groups often do have turned their sights on the candidate they know the best in the local candidate Pollitt in this race. The case for Alexander is that he has cast himself as the outsider in a year where voters are angry. He has the personal money to make his case and his opponent has a divisive hometown to defend. 

This race is a tight one and has moved into the toss-up category. 

Rep. Brad Pollitt 

Cash In: $56,366.98

Cash Out: $50,560.09

Cash on Hand: $171,849.77

Rocker P Brand PAC

Cash In: $178,300.00

Cash Out: $49,782.00

Cash on Hand: $240,240.85

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $

Dr. Sam Alexander 

Cash In: $11,359.00

Cash Out: $30,812.30

Cash on Hand: $170,076.60

Candidate Loans: $123,000.00

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $170,076.60

#6 SD 4  Sen. Karla May is term-limited. TOSS UP

This continues to look like the closest Democratic Senate primary in the state. Both campaigns have released internal polling showing their candidate narrowly ahead, with each poll falling within the margin of error, underscoring just how competitive the contest has become.

Steve Butz has assembled an impressive coalition of public safety support, earning endorsements from both the Missouri Fraternal Order of Police and the Missouri State Council of Fire Fighters. While his latest finance report reflected a substantial burn rate, those expenditures translated into an aggressive paid media campaign with multiple television ads and mail pieces. His allied PAC has also attracted support from J&J Gaming, the Missouri Insurance Coalition, Crawford-Butz & Associates, and Rex Sinquefield. Mitten’s campaign has sought to make those relationships a central issue, arguing Butz is too closely aligned with the St. Louis business establishment. The case for Butz is that he has the money advantage and has matched and he would say edged out Mitten on the ground. 

Gina Mitten has not matched Butz dollar-for-dollar, but she has run an energetic and disciplined campaign, making effective use of every available resource to remain highly competitive. She has secured the backing of Senator Tracy McCreery and prominent abortion-rights advocates, giving her credibility with key Democratic constituencies. Butz’s campaign, meanwhile, has attempted to define Mitten by highlighting her previous service as a workers’ compensation judge. The case for Mitten is that Butz is a white, heterosexual, Christian male and those haven’t fared well in urban primaries in recent years. Also that she is the only 100% pro-choice candidate running. 

As things stand today, neither candidate has established a clear advantage. Butz enters the final stretch with greater financial resources and a broad coalition of institutional support, while Mitten has built considerable grassroots momentum and demonstrated an ability to maximize a smaller campaign budget. With both sides fully engaged and outside groups taking an interest, this remains one of the state’s premier primary battles.

Rep. Steve Butz 

Cash In: $50,575.00

Cash Out: $185,149.94

Cash on Hand: $49,419.35

Butz STL PAC

Cash In: $100,650.00

Cash Out: $40,092.50

Cash on Hand: $193,123.31

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $242,542.66

Gina Mitten

Cash In: $48,196.00

Cash Out: $41,239.66

Cash on Hand: $107,356.02

Good Hands PAC

Cash In: $454.00

Cash Out: $325.00

Cash on Hand: $129.00

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $107,485.02

#7 SD 14  Senator Brian Williams is term-limited. TOSS UP

Senator Brian Williams has become one of the Missouri Democratic Party’s brightest stars, and replacing him will be no easy task. Fortunately for Democrats, the field competing to succeed him is one of the deepest in the state, featuring multiple credible candidates with established political networks. 

After several quarters without a clear financial frontrunner, Proudie has begun slightly separating herself from the field. She now holds a cash advantage over her opponents and recently hosted a well-attended fundraiser attended by Williams. She has also secured key labor endorsements from the Missouri State Council of Fire Fighters and the Carpenters, with the latter investing $25,000 into her campaign. Those endorsements, coupled with her fundraising momentum, have strengthened her position heading into the closing weeks of the primary.

Former Rep. John Bowman, Joe Palm, and Shaunte Duncan all retain viable paths to victory, with Bowman appearing to have the strongest chance of the three challengers. Bowman once again reported a significant burn rate from both his campaign committee and affiliated PAC, but his longstanding name recognition continues to make him a formidable opponent. Palm’s campaign received an important boost with the endorsement of Senator Angela Mosley, while Duncan, who has been campaigning for more than a year, continues to rely on the grassroots organization she has built throughout the district.

As things stand today, Proudie has the momentum. Her fundraising advantage, growing coalition of labor support, and backing from Williams have given her a measurable edge over the field. That said, this remains a competitive four-way primary. Bowman still has enough resources and name recognition to make a late push, Palm has picked up a meaningful endorsement, and Duncan has invested more time on the campaign trail than anyone else in the race. Proudie enters the final stretch as the candidate to beat, but this race is not yet out of reach for the rest of the field.

Joe Palm

Cash In: $6,950.00

Cash Out: $2,010.14

Cash on Hand: $14,261.12

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $14,261.12

Shaunte Duncan 

Cash In: $4,890.00

Cash Out: $3,592.06

Cash on Hand: $13,841.15

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $13,841.15

Rep. Raychel Proudie 

Cash In: $13,301.00

Cash Out: $15,685.96

Cash on Hand: $44,713.68

PROUD PAC

Cash In: $36,410.00

Cash Out: $1,300.00

Cash on Hand: $57,991.46

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $102,705.14

Former Rep. John Bowman 

Cash In: $39,185.00

Cash Out: $34,996.98

Cash on Hand: $32,333.86

Candidate loans: $20,000.00

Come Back PAC

Cash In: $7,350.00

Cash Out: $8,617.50

Cash on Hand: $24,352.17

Total Cash on Hand: $56,686.03

#8 SD 20 Senator Curtis Trent is seeking re-election. LEAN TRENT

Senator Curtis Trent has spent the summer doing double duty, promoting Amendment 5, running for Senate leadership, and his own re-election campaign. He also emerged from session with one of the strongest legislative records of any incumbent facing a primary, serving as the Senate sponsor of the income tax cut legislation, one of the conservative movement’s top priorities of the past three decades.

That legislative success has translated into political support. Trent has secured endorsements from Americans for Prosperity, Missouri Right to Life, and the Missouri Farm Bureau, while maintaining a commanding fundraising advantage. His campaign received major contributions, including $50,000 from J&J Gaming, $15,000 from the Missouri Soybean Association, and $125,000 from Rex Sinquefield. Although his campaign committee reported a sizable burn rate, his allied PAC has continued to replenish those resources. With AFP actively engaged in the race, it is likely most Republican primary voters in the district will have been contacted multiple times before Election Day. The case for Trent is that he started the race with a lead and has done everything on the ground and the airwaves to keep it. Moreover, he isn’t sitting on his lead he is attacking Rook on all fronts. 

Lori Rook has proven a skilled politician and seems to have learned some lessons from a half-hearted State Treasurer run two years ago. She is an attorney and has benefitted from an aggressive marketing campaign where she has built some name ID. Her campaign has been aggressive from the start, and as a challenger it has to be. The early attacks on Trent as liberal really didn’t land, but as her campaign turned to calling him the “establishment” the race has tightened. The case for Rook is that she has been closing the gap since filing day and has the momentum. 

She also posted a significant burn rate this reporting period, though she continued to receive support from conservative grassroots organizations, including Jim Avery’s PAC and several like-minded political committees.

From the outset, the central question in this race has been whether anyone could successfully outflank Trent from the right while he remains one of the Senate’s most consistently conservative members. As things stand today, Trent continues to hold the advantage. He enters the closing weeks with the stronger financial position, a slate of influential conservative endorsements, and the legislative accomplishments to reinforce his message with Republican primary voters.

Sen. Curtis Trent

Cash In: $55,512.70

Cash Out: $98,318.33

Cash on Hand: $214,347.83

417 PAC

Cash In: $349,685.00

Cash Out: $182,904.95

Cash on Hand: $638,322.27

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $852,670.10

Lori Rook

Cash In: $25,895.00

Cash Out: $61,853.25

Cash on Hand: $69,429.12

Candidate loans: $100,000.00

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $69,429.12

#9 SD 32 Senator Jill Carter is seeking re-election. LEAN CARTER

Senator Jill Carter has quickly established herself as one of the Republican caucus’s rising stars and now faces a primary re-election challenge of her own from Dr. Ellen Nichols, a neurosurgeon and the wife of former Senator Bill White who she defeated in his re-election run four years ago. Carter has built a reputation as one of the Senate’s hardest-working members while maintaining a close alignment with the conservative grassroots.

That standing is reflected in both her endorsement list and financial position. Carter has earned the backing of the Missouri Fraternal Order of Police, Missouri Right to Life, and the Missouri Farm Bureau, giving her support from three of the state’s most influential Republican organizations. Financially, she also enters the final stretch with a considerable advantage, reporting nearly $350,000 in combined cash on hand between her campaign and Show Me Values PAC. During the reporting period, her political operation also received major investments from key Republican allies, including $50,000 from J&J Gaming, $50,000 from Senator Cindy O’Laughlin’s PAC, and $50,000 from the Missouri Regional Council of Carpenters.

Nichols has demonstrated that she is prepared to finance a serious campaign. She has loaned her campaign $250,000 of her own money and reported more than $275,000 in combined cash on hand between her campaign committee and Stand for Truth PAC. She has also secured the endorsement of Americans for Prosperity, giving her an established conservative organization to help communicate with Republican primary voters. While Nichols has the resources to remain competitive through Election Day, much of her financial strength continues to come from self-funding rather than the broader donor network Carter has assembled. The doctors made a major statement giving her $100,000 and win or lose have raised some eyebrows. 

As things stand today, Carter remains in the stronger position. Nichols has ensured this will be a real contest by committing substantial personal resources and earning AFP’s support, but Carter enters the closing weeks as the candidate to beat.

Sen. Jill Carter

Cash In: $80,000.00

Cash Out: $54,901.32

Cash on Hand: $57,862.33

Show Me Values PAC

Cash In: $242,200.00

Cash Out: $29,665.08

Cash on Hand: $291,615.30

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $349,477.63

Dr. Ellen Nichols

Cash In: $115,233.07

Cash Out: $122,603.42

Cash on Hand: $224,234.08

Candidate Loans: $250,000.00

Stand for Truth PAC

Cash In: $31,000.31

Cash Out: $0.00

Cash on Hand: $51,050.36

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $275,284.44

#10 SD 34 Senator Tony Luetkemeyer is term-limited. LIKLEY JONES

It’s easy to forget just how different this race looked six months ago. At one point, Brenda Shields and Nathan Willett, along with Sean Pouche, appeared headed for a highly competitive primary. Today, the field has settled considerably, leaving Representatives Mike Jones and Sean Pouche, as the principal contenders with Ryan Gerster also running. 

Jones has gone from the underdog in defending a competitive House seat to emerging as the favorite for the Senate nomination. He posted an impressive fundraising quarter, raising well over $250,000. His Beverly PAC also attracted major support, including $25,000 from Senator Cindy O’Laughlin, $50,000 from Rex Sinquefield, and another $50,000 from KAJE LLC. On the endorsement front, Jones has assembled one of the strongest coalitions of any Senate candidate this cycle, earning the backing of the Fraternal Order of Police, Americans for Prosperity, and a joint endorsement from Missouri Right to Life.

Sean Pouche’s campaign has yet to generate the momentum many expected. While he posted a respectable fundraising quarter, nearly all of those resources were spent during the reporting period, leaving little financial ground gained. 

As things stand today, Jones has separated himself from the field. Between his fundraising advantage, endorsement list, and institutional support, he enters the final stretch as the clear favorite to succeed Senator Tony Luetkemeyer, though replacing one of the Senate’s most influential members will be no small task.

Rep. Sean Pouche 

Cash In: $108,725.00

Cash Out: $118,985.15

Cash on Hand: $142,033.91

Candidate Loans: $130,000.00

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $142,033.91

Rep. Mike Jones

Cash In: $86,639.70

Cash Out: $49,549.33

Cash on Hand: $125,710.33

Beverly PAC

Cash In: $183,984.14

Cash Out: $29,319.50

Cash on Hand: $283,893.47

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $409,603.80

#11  SD 8 Senator Mike Cierpiot is term-limited. LIKELY PATTERSON 

Patterson enters the final stretch from a position of considerable strength. After another productive legislative session, he has further cemented his standing as one of the most influential Republicans in Missouri. Under his leadership, the House remained the driving force in the legislative process, advancing much of its agenda while consistently putting pressure on the Senate that often chose surrender over even trying. His political operation reflects that strength as well. Between his campaign committee and Missouri Alliance PAC, Patterson now sits on more than $3 million in cash on hand. He also continues to enjoy the backing of many of the state’s most influential organizations, including the Fraternal Order of Police, Americans for Prosperity, Rex Sinquefield, and J&J Gaming.

Former Representative Dan Stacy had hoped to capitalize on conservative dissatisfaction stemming from Patterson’s speakership, but that path has narrowed considerably. Stacy reported little fundraising activity this quarter and now has just over $7,000 on hand, making it increasingly difficult to mount a meaningful challenge. As things stand today, Patterson appears unlikely to face significant opposition in the Republican primary.

The general election presents a more competitive environment. Representative Keri Ingle has assembled a credible campaign with more than $420,000 in combined cash on hand and endorsements from the Missouri State Council of Fire Fighters and the Missouri Regional Council of Carpenters. She remains a strong Democratic candidate in a Lee’s Summit area that has continued trending left over the past several election cycles. Her previous victory over a Republican incumbent and the city’s recent Democratic gains demonstrate that the district is no longer reliably Republican. If she comes up short in the fall many will ask where the Democrats were in assisting Stacy more in the summer. 

Even so, Republicans could hardly ask for a stronger nominee. As things stand today, Patterson remains the clear favorite to win the primary and enters the general election as the GOP’s strongest opportunity to retain Senator Mike Cierpiot’s seat.

Rep. Keri Ingle

Cash In: $59,365.28

Cash Out: $14,506.78

Cash on Hand: $285,297.10

KERI PAC

Cash In: $68,400.00

Cash Out: $0.00

Cash on Hand: $136,462.00

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $421,759.1

Former Rep. Dan Stacy

Cash In: $885.25

Cash Out: $3,835.63

Cash on Hand: $7,183.96

Candidate Loans: $15,000.00 

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $7,183.96

House Speaker Jon Patterson 

Cash In: $78,575.00

Cash Out: $26,211.14

Cash on Hand: $719,471.91

Missouri Alliance PAC

Cash In: $266,503.58

Cash Out: $140,534.00

Cash on Hand: $2,314,904.08

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $3,034,375.99

#12 SD 22 Sen.  Mary Elizabeth Coleman is not seeking re-election. SAFE AVERY

Fmr. Rep. Jim Avery

Jim Avery has played this race almost perfectly. Filing day came and went and not a single opponent in sight as he built relationships all session. You’ve been hearing it here first and we will say it again: Jim Avery is the next big thing in Missouri politics. 

Cash In: $28,480.00

Cash Out: $7,348.78

Cash on Hand: $167,950.34

Candidate Loans: $50.00

Make JeffCo Great Again PAC

Cash In: $22,000.39

Cash Out: $10,195.93

Cash on Hand: $39,566.57

TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $207,516.91