TWMP Column: Republican House Seat Preview

The Republicans

As usual, the Republicans will have several heavyweight primaries this summer. They are headlined by HD145 where Dave Soto and former Bryant Wolfin are in a tight matchup. There is a hot one in Boone County in HD44 with Bryce Beal vs. John Martin. HD104 pits Terry Violet vs. Jeremy Lloyd, HD 144 is a toss-up to replace Rep. Dinkins, in HD153 Vinnie Clubb will be a very successful Rep. once when he fights off his primary opponent. HD54 has gotten personal between Brandon Phelps and Matthew Sergent.
There are also some potential stars coming out of these open-seat races starting in HD163 with Cathy Jo Loy. Zach Williams in HD141, John Best in HD128, John Hewkin in HD120, and George Hruza in HD89.
In a new trend, there are several Republican incumbents facing legitimate primary challengers this summer. Leading the list is HD56 where Rep. Micheal Davis is being challenged by Cass County Commissioner Ryan Johnson. HD109 in a rematch where Rep. Kyle Marquart is being challenged by former Rep. John Simmons. In HD61, Rep. Bruce Sassmann is fighting off a well-funded challenger in Paul Stratman. In HD33 Rep. Chris Sander has a legitimate challenger in Carolyn Caton. There are two other primaries where the incumbents are highly favored, but will have to run full races in HD64 for Rep. Tony Lovasco and HD119 with Rep. Brad Banderman.
The Republicans started the cycle with 111 seats. I suspect the Republicans retain all of these 102 seats. The Democrats start with 43 safe seats leaving 18 competitive races. If the abortion IP is on the ballot I could see 2-4 of these 102 sliding into the competitive list.
If I had to wager a guess in June assuming the abortion issue is on the ballot and Biden remains the Democratic nominee that the Republicans will have a tough time in those 18 competitive races relying on candidate quality and massive fundraising advantages to keep a lid on the losses, but as of today I could see the Republicans losing 5 seats. That would put the House at a 106 to 57 advantage for the Republicans. No supermajority, but with the Republicans heavily favored in the Governor’s race that number is much more symbolic than meaningful.

Open republican seats
HD39 Doug Richey is running for State Senate.
Mark Meirath
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $N/A

HD44 Cheri Toalson Reisch is running for Boone County Commissioner.
Bryce Beal
Total Raised this Cycle: $21,063
Cash on Hand: $12,739
Mid-Missouri Conservative PAC
Cash on Hand: $N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $12,739
John Martin
Total Raised this Cycle: $40,055
Cash on Hand: $32,252
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $32,252

HD51 Kurtis Gregory is running for State Senate.
Mark W Nolte
Total Raised this Cycle: $1,700
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $2,624
Kerrick Alumbaugh
Total Raised this Cycle: $8,428
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $8,770

HD54 Dan Houx is running for State Senate.
Brandon Phelps
Total Raised this Cycle: $24,522
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $8,288
Matthew Sergent
Total Raised this Cycle: $11,421
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $8,432

HD55 Mike Haffner is running for State Senate.
William (Bill) Irwin
Total Raised this Cycle: $51,107
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $40,561

HD89    Dean Plocher is running for Secretary of State.
George Hruza
Total Raised this Cycle: $254,555
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $229,007

HD104 Phil Christofanelli is running for State Senate.
Terri Violet
Total Raised this Cycle: $16,875
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $10,620
Jeremy J. Lloyd
Total Raised this Cycle: $4,322
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $4,078

HD108 Justin Hicks is running for Congress.
Max Calfo
Total Raised this Cycle: $22,818
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $19,689
Mike Costlow
Total Raised this Cycle: $ N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $ N/A

HD115 Cyndi Buchheit-Courtway is running for State Senate.
Bill Lucas
Total Raised this Cycle: $5,000
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $4,562
Dominic (Dom) Lawson
Total Raised this Cycle: $200
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $140

HD117 Mike Henderson is running for State Senate.
Becky Laubinger
Total Raised this Cycle: $4,279
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $626
Mike Miller
Total Raised this Cycle: $24,917
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $15,498
Chad Brown Sr.
Total Raised this Cycle: $2,555
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $6.00

HD120 Ron Copeland is not seeking re-election.
John W. Hewkin
Total Raised this Cycle: $2,000
Cash on Hand: $14,770
RX for MO PAC
Cash on Hand: Limited Activity
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $14,770
Lancer Blair
Total Raised this Cycle: $N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $N/A

HD128 Mike Stephens is term-limited.
Derral Reynolds
Total Raised this Cycle: $2,841
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $1,370
Christopher D Warwick
Total Raised this Cycle: $5,974
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $3,171
John Best
Total Raised this Cycle: $56,575
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $51,667
Bill Yarberry
Total Raised this Cycle: $N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $N/A

HD138 Brad Hudson is running for State Senate.
Tom Franiak
Total Raised this Cycle: $16,585
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $15,824
Burt Whaley
Total Raised this Cycle: $6,171
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $4,325

HD141 Hannah Kelly is term limited.
John S Perperian
Total Raised this Cycle: $575
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $10
Melissa Schmidt
Total Raised this Cycle: $14,614
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $10,728
Zach Williams
Total Raised this Cycle: $4,530
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $10,917

HD144 Chris Dinkins is running for State Senate.
Joe Loyd
Total Raised this Cycle: $3,150
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $1,318
Tony R Harbison
Total Raised this Cycle: $160
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $160
Paul (Buck) Usher
Total Raised this Cycle: $N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $N/A

HD145 Rick Francis is term limited.
Bryant Wolfin
Total Raised this Cycle: $18,578
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $14,257
Dave Soto
Total Raised this Cycle: $48,291
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $40,154

HD148 Jamie Burger is running for State Senate.
David A Dolan
Total Raised this Cycle: $37,008
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $154
Gary Senciboy
Total Raised this Cycle: $N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $N/A

HD151 Herman Morse is term-limited.
Steve W Jordan
Total Raised this Cycle: $200
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $326

HD153 Darrell Atchison is term-limited.
Vinnie Clubb
Total Raised this Cycle: $21,021
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $16,036

Keith W. Elliott
Total Raised this Cycle: $12,499
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $2,075

HD154 David Evans is not seeking re-election.
Lisa Durnell
Total Raised this Cycle: $1,100
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $782
Larry R. Lindeman
Total Raised this Cycle: $N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $N/A
Mark B. Collins
Total Raised this Cycle: $N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $N/A

HD155 Travis Smith is running for State Senate.
Matthew Overcast
Total Raised this Cycle: $800
TOTAL CASH ON HAND:$645
Julie AuBuchon
Total Raised this Cycle: $ Limited activity
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $Limited Activity

HD163 Cody Smith is running for State Treasurer 
Zach Hatcher
Total Raised this Cycle: Limited Activity
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: Limited Activity 
Cathy Jo Loy
Total Raised this Cycle: $30,711
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $17,965

Safe Republican incumbent seats

HD1 Jeff Farnen is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $9,430
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $10,649

HD2 Mazzie Boyd is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $30,495
TOTAL CASH ON HAND:  $15,803

HD3 Danny Busick is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $17,425
TOTAL CASH ON HAND:  $1,633

HD4 Greg Sharpe is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $26,000
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $4,385

HD5 Louis Riggs is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $39,287
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $10,429

HD6 Ed Lewis is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $13,194
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $19,553

HD7 Peggy McGaugh is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $8,400
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $17,814

HD8 Josh Hurlbert is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $11,420
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $18,572

HD9 Dean Van Schoiack is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $26,806
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $26,729

HD10 Bill Falkner is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $ limited activity
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $

HD11 Brenda Shields is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $37,299
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $98,352

HD13 Sean Pouche is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $15,118
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $14,425.

HD16 Chris Brown is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $134,261
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $33,849

HD30 Jonathan Patterson is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $488,400
Cash on Hand: $217,297
Missouri Alliance PAC
Cash on Hand: $501,715
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $719,012

HD32 Jeff Coleman is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $167,521
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $7,898

HD33 Chris Sander is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $215,178
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $28,358

HD40 Chad Perkins is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $107,281
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $45,242

HD41 Doyle Justus is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $30,668
Cash on Hand: $21,144
Justus for ALL PAC
Cash on Hand: $0
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $21,144

HD42 Jeff Myers is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $0
Cash on Hand: $33,514
964 PAC
Cash on Hand: $19,077
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $19,077

HD43 Kent Haden is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $20,949
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $20,667

HD48 Tim Taylor is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $19,775
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $4,594

HD49 Jim Schulte is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $50,688
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $14,336

HD52 Brad Pollitt is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $139,541
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $53,838

HD53 Terry Thompson is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $45,002
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $15,687

HD56 Michael Davis is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $12,101
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $11,823

HD57 Rodger Reedy is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $15,510
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $8,273

HD58 Willard Haley is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $9,175
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $13,502

HD59 Rudy Veit is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $7,245
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $46,377

HD60 Dave Griffith is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $173,496
Cash on Hand: $7,784

HD61 Bruce Sassmann is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $N/A
Cash on Hand: $N/A

HD62 Sherri Gallick is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $83,224
Cash on Hand: $57,803
A Good Steward PAC
Cash on Hand: $1,169
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $58,972

HD63 Tricia Byrnes is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $61,091
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $4,529

HD64 Tony Lovasco is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $14,525
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $21,975

HD65 Wendy Hausman is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $46,920
Cash on Hand: $9,918
Integrity PAC
Cash on Hand: $711
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $10,629

HD88 Holly Jones is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $6,000
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $6,389

HD94 Jim Murphy is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $43,643
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $23,676

HD95 Michael O’Donnell is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $29,200
Cash on Hand: $33,833
3912 Leadership PAC
Cash on Hand: $8,215
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $42,048

HD97 David Casteel is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $64,952
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $28,116

HD101 Ben Keathley is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $49,470
Cash on Hand: $52,704
South Asian DESI PAC
Cash on Hand: $2,500
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $55,204

HD102 Richard West is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $34,591
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $4,823

HD103 Dave Hinman is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $34,865
Cash on Hand: $34,439
Putting People First PAC
Cash on Hand: $6,547
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $40,986

HD106 Travis Wilson is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $65,119
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $56,772

HD107 Mark Matthiesen is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $8,899
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $8,948

HD109 Kyle Marquart is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $7,895
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $11,389

HD110 Justin Sparks is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $11,420
Cash on Hand: $6,047
Sparks PAC
Cash on Hand: $0
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $6,047

HD111 Gary Bonacker is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $10,650
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $12,764

HD112 Renee Reuter is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $10,967
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $10,225

HD113 Phil Amato is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $30,494
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $35,465

HD114 Ken Waller is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $52,819
Cash on Hand: $19,903
Building Jeffco Together PAC
Cash on Hand: $8,449
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $28,352

HD116 Dale Wright is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $558,543
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $55,658

HD118 Mike McGirl is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $15,250
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $27,570

HD119  Brad Banderman is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $9,765
Cash on Hand: $7,627
Missouri Hometown PAC
Cash on Hand: $0
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $7,627

HD121 Bill Hardwick is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $113,913
Cash on Hand: $109,015
Missouri Enterprise Fund
Cash on Hand: Limited Activity
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: Limited Activity 

HD122 Tara Peters is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $29,757
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $11,072

HD123 Lisa Thomas is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $27,200
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $48,927

HD124 Don Mayhew is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $n/a
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $n/a

HD125 Dane Diehl is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $65,435
Cash on Hand: $16,370
Rural Roots PAC
Cash on Hand: $10,516
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $26,886

HD126 Jim Kalberloh is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $27,852
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $27,903

HD127 Ann Kelley is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $82,627
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $15,679

HD129 John Black is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $16,662
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $47,706

HD130 Bishop Davidson is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $41,537
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $33,534

HD131 Bill Owen is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $105,816
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $57,046

HD134 Alex Riley is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $139,294
Cash on Hand: $65,988
Missouri Leadership PAC
Cash on Hand: $22,389
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $88,377

HD137 Darrin Chappell is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $12,832
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $13,382

HD139 Bob Titus is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $37,949
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $23,346

HD140 Jamie Gragg is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $11,984
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $1,902

HD142 Jeff Knight is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $2,750
Cash on Hand: $74,375
JAK PAC
Cash on Hand: $5,413
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $79,788

HD143 Bennie Cook is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $69,027
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $10,851

HD146 Barry Hovis is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $46,347
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $3,584

HD147 John Voss is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $38,368
Cash on Hand: $30,409
Capaha PAC
Cash on Hand: $1,200
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $31,609

HD149 Donnie Brown is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $78,628
Cash on Hand: $31,03
Faultline Leadership PAC
Cash on Hand: $N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $31,03

HD150 Cameron Parker is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $84,263
Cash on Hand: $50,502
CP4 Missouri PAC
Cash on Hand: $3,797
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $54,299

HD152 Hardy Billington is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $72,013
Cash on Hand: $103,433
152 Freedom PAC
Cash on Hand: Limited Activity
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $103,433

HD156 Brian Seitz is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $32,096
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $4,446

HD157 Mitch Boggs is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $82,227
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $7,955

HD158 Scott Cupps is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: Limited Activity
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $n/a

HD159 Dirk Deaton is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $76,915
Cash on Hand: $89,495
Old McDonald PAC
Cash on Hand: $54,350
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $143,845

HD160 Ben Baker is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $52,700
Cash on Hand: $42,977
MoValuesPAC
Cash on Hand: $24,012
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $66,989

HD161 Lane Roberts is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $14,900
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $35,297

HD162 Bob Bromley is seeking re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $15,500
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $14,248