TWMP Column: Statewide Tipsheet

Governor: Republican Primary: LEAN KEHOE –  Democrat Primary: LEAN QUADE
General: LIKELY REPUBLICAN

Republicans
Lt. Governor Mike Kehoe
He has all the money, his 2nd quarter report was the Mona Lisa of fundraising reports. He has torn Ashcroft’s 30 point lead down to where he now has a lead. However, now that he is the front runner both Ashcroft and Eigel are hitting him. He has built a lead, but can he hold it?
How he wins: Play whack a mole with both Ashcroft and Eigel. Find some way to get angry in a way that speaks to a very angry electorate.
Campaign song of the last two weeks: Hold On, I’m Coming
Total Raised this quarter: $879,166
Total Raised this Cycle: $4,059,955
Cash on Hand: $2,285,167
American Dream PAC
Total Raised this quarter: $3,504,376
Cash on Hand: $4,010,832
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $6,295,999

Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft
He had a lead, but anytime a front runner in a three way race has a lead he gets all the attacks until he doesn’t have a lead. He has weathered a ton of attacks and is still very much in this, and with another million sent to his PAC this week.
How he wins: When Kehoe chipped votes off of him, they went to Eigel. Now that Kehoe is chipping votes off of Eigel they are coming back to Ashcroft. He needs Kehoe and Eigel to attack each other until folks come home to the name they know.
Campaign song of the last two weeks: Family Tradition by Hank Wiliams Jr.
 Total Raised this quarter: $303,816
Total Raised this Cycle: $1,264,811
Cash on Hand: $770,196
Committee for Liberty PAC
Total Raised this quarter: $391,813
Cash on Hand: $730,685
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $1,500,881

Senator Bill Eigel
Few thought he would be here in the last two weeks with a very real chance to win, well few besides your simple hillbilly pal. He has an influx of money and like it or not he has the message that folks wanna hear. However, he hasn’t really been hit yet. It will be interesting to see how he weathers the storm.
How he wins: Get enough of that sweet sweet trial lawyer money to get his message out.
Campaign song of the last two weeks: Lawyers, Guns and Money
Total Raised this quarter: $231,352
Total Raised this cycle: $1,526,335
Cash on Hand: $588,775
Believe in Life and Liberty (BILL) PAC
Total Raised this quarter: $580,916
Cash on Hand: $242,693
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $831,468

Democrats
House Minority Leader Crystal Quade
She has done literally everything the democrat party could ask of anyone, and yet the party stabbed her in the back. She is an attractive, articulate, excellent legislator who could be one of the building blocks of a resurgent democratic party.
How she wins: She is the most qualified democrat, a female in what democrats are calling the year of the woman. She just needs the money to get that message out
Campaign song of the last two weeks: ​​Chumbawamba – Tubthumping
Total Raised this Cycle: $1,028,382
Cash on Hand: $389,021
CRYSTAL PAC
Cash on Hand: $126,154
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $515,175

Springfield Businessman Mike Hamra
So Democrats constantly claim that the rules of our society are constantly broken in favor of:

• White
• Christian
• Heterosexual 
• Male
• Rich daddy’s boys

Well… Mike Hamra is out to prove them 100% right. Except it’s the Democrats who have rigged the game. He swore he lived in Chicago when he voted there in 2000, but swore he has lived in Missouri for the last ten years when he filed for Governor last March. And yet again the rules of the game were rigged…
How he wins: Proves the blatant hypocrisy of the democratic party and buys the race.
Campaign song of the last two weeks: Miranda Lambert – White Liar (Official Music Video)
Total Raised this Cycle: $1,682,985
Cash on Hand: $495,794
Together Missouri PAC
Cash on Hand: $206,112
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $701,906

Lt. Governor: Primary: LEAN HOUGH – General: SAFE REPUBLICAN 
Senator Lincoln Hough
He has raised an incredible amount of money and put together an impressive list of endorsements and is the only Lt. Governor candidate with a ground game. His only issue is that Wasinger is buying television at the candidate rate and he is buying at the PAC rate. As of now this race leans Hough.
How he wins: Keeps pouring on the heat in the mailbox, television and traveling the state. He has a lead, he just has to keep up enough points to hold it.
Campaign song of the last two weeks: Hank Williams, Jr. – “A Country Boy Can Survive” (Official Music Video)
Total Raised this Cycle: $525,906
Cash on Hand: $519,989
LINCOLN PAC
Cash on Hand: $639,074
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $1,159,063

Senator Holly Rehder
Holly Rehder is one of the most talented politicians in the state, and has one of the largest rolodexes to match. I do think she could have put more into this race. However, she is closing strong with a great ad of her firing a gun.
How she wins: Hough and Wasinger get into an ad war and she picks up voters who are turned off.
Campaign song of the last two weeks: Tim McGraw – Southern Girl
Total Raised this Cycle: $513,496
Cash on Hand: $338,540
Southern Drawl PAC
Cash on Hand: $286,414
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $624,954

David Wasinger
Wasinger filed for Auditor in 2018, but didn’t spend his own money and lost a very winnable primary. This time he has put the money in and spent it. He doesn’t have a ground game, but if he can buy enough TV at the candidate rate he might not need one.
How he wins: Keep shoveling his own money in at the candidate rate.
Campaign song of the last two weeks: Moneytalks by ACDC
Total Raised this Cycle: $1,771,689
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $1,279,256

Attorney General: Primary: LEAN BAILEY General: SAFE Republican 
Attorney General Andrew Bailey
He is a legitimate war hero, and has sued literally everyone a right wing primary voter could want. That has built a legitimate double digit lead that has withstood millions in out of state money hitting him.
How he wins: Raise enough late money from Missouri to fight off the folks from Manhattan who are out to get him.
Campaign song of the last two weeks: Jason Aldean – Try That In A Small Town (Official Music Video)
Total Raised this Cycle: $1,131,681
Cash on Hand: $689,166
Liberty and Justice PAC
Cash on Hand: $768,506
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $1,457,672

Former Assistant U.S. Attorney Will Scharf
Brilliant legal mind, literally awful back story starting at Harvard. That is until he got a gig working as Trump’s attorney. He has millions and millions of New York and D.C. money flooding in to buy this race. Thus far he hasn’t found the right mix to level the race out. However, with all of the money he has at this disposal he still has time to figure it out.
How he wins: Keep calling those 202 numbers to send more money.
Campaign song of the last two weeks: JAY-Z – Empire State Of Mind ft. Alicia Keys
Total Raised this Cycle: $1,680,730
Cash on Hand: $1,264,040
Defend Missouri PAC
Cash on Hand: $31,125
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $1,295,165

Secretary of State: Primary: TOSS UP General: SAFE Republican 
House Speaker Dean Plocher
He has been hit from all sides and kept his head up through it all and now stands as the candidate you could probably make the best case could win this crowded SOS primary. If he wins credit his fellow reps getting his signs out and the direct mail campaign he has going with his volunteers.
How he wins: He is the only candidate up on tv and has a ground game second only to Senator Hoskins.
Campaign song of the last two weeks: Elton John – I’m Still Standing
Total Raised this Cycle: $161,480
Cash on Hand: $508,414
Missouri United PAC
Cash on Hand: $727,913
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $1,236,327

Senator Denny Hoskins
He has access to the grassroots campaign network that former Senator Lembke has put together and enough money to do some messaging.
How he wins: Eigel has a good night, and he coasts in alongside him.
Campaign song of the last two weeks: Till I Collapse by Eminem
Total Raised this Cycle: $216,902
Cash on Hand: $72,570
Old Drum Conservative
Cash on Hand: $149,401
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $221,971

State Senator Mary Elizabeth Coleman
She is a heat magnet, everything she does gets more praise and more scorn than anyone in Missouri politics. Some could think this is a bad thing, but when you’re trying to set yourself apart in a crowded primary with two weeks left it’s a pretty good thing.
How she wins: Spends just enough to set herself apart and the rest of the field fades. It’s a crap shoot but she has as good or better path to win than anyone else.
Campaign song of the last two weeks: Demi Lovato – Confident (Official Video)
Total Raised this Cycle: $194,631
Cash on Hand: $122,517
Conservative Solutions for Missouri 
Cash on Hand: $131,590
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $254,107

Wentzville Judge Mike Carter
Great dude, might just be playing with this. However, if he dives in this to win this then he totally can.
How he wins: He throws a million dollars of his own money in and compiles a mix of his innovative media strategy with some traditional media.
Campaign song of the last two weeks: Here Comes The Judge – Pigmeat Markham (1968)
Total Raised this Cycle: $N/A
Cash on Hand: $N/A
Total Cash on Hand: $N/A

Greene County Clerk Shane Schoeller
He has his base in southwest Missouri, and probably the best person on this list. If you could describe a Christian man in politics he and Senator Koenig would come to mind.
How he wins: He holds his base in southwest Missouri and the total to win drops south of 20%.
Campaign song of the last two weeks: Brooks & Dunn – Hard Workin’ Man (Official Video)
Total Raised this Cycle: $196,098
Cash on Hand: $11,330
Safe Elections PAC
Cash on Hand: $13,041
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $24,371

Rep. Adam Schwadron
Adam found a donor and has spent a good chunk of that money on newspaper inserts, half promoting him and the backside with a scatterbrained attack on Plocher with tons of text and a message that you would literally have to work at the Missouri Independent to decipher.
How he wins: His attacks work, and he holds St. Charles County and wins a tight race.
Campaign song of the last two weeks: MAGIC! – Rude (Official Video)
Total Raised this Cycle: $114,580
Cash on Hand: $78,125
Missouri Values PAC
Cash on Hand: $144,980
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $223,105

Valentina Gomez

1. Her videos are the most watchable thing in the entire campaign. 2. Yes, she could actually win. 

Total Raised this Cycle: $21,769
How she wins: The videos work and the total to win is in the teens.
Campaign song of the last two weeks: José Feliciano – Feliz Navidad (Official Audio)
Total Raised this Cycle: $21,769
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $12,862

Jamie Corley
She is very impressive and is politically savvy. She has a path, maybe she wouldn’t in a one on one or three way race but in an eight way she can absolutely win this.
How she wins: Spends her money wisely and garners the middle ground of republican primary voters in a race where 27-29% probably wins it.
Campaign song of the last two weeks: Keith Urban – The Fighter ft. Carrie Underwood (Official Music Video)
Total Raised this Cycle: $278,799
Cash on Hand: $271,847
The Missouri Conservatives Fund
Cash on Hand: N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $271,847

State Treasurer: PRIMARY: LEAN MALEK GENERAL: SAFE Republican 
State Treasurer Vivek Malek
He started the race as the incumbent with a big fundraising advantage, and is ending it with the same. Great dude hard not to like.
How he wins: He outspends his opponents who don’t have enough money to attack him.
Campaign song of the last two weeks: WWE – Shane McMahon (Naughty by Nature – Here Comes The Money) Official Theme Song
Total Raised this Cycle: $1,842,615
Cash on Hand: $1,373,799
American Promise PAC
Cash on Hand: $1,512,354
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $2,886,153

House Budget Chairman Rep. Cody Smith
Good guy, had a good run at the budget this year but is having a hard time putting together the resources to bust out of the pack and make this a one on one race with him and Malek.
How he wins: Assemble enough money to do some of those dark arts attacks on Malek while having enough money to set himself apart from Rook and Koenig.
Campaign song of the last two weeks: Dolly Parton – 9 to 5 (Official Audio)
Total Raised this Cycle: $758,467
Cash on Hand: $291,009
Ozark Gateway Leadership PAC
Cash on Hand: $227,251
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $518,260

State Senator Andrew Koenig
Excellent senator who has taken a grassroots approach to the race. Gonna need some more money to thread the needle. He has a base of support in St. Louis, the state’s most expensive media market, and maybe those doors he is knocking pays off.
How he wins: He has always been underestimated, and gets underestimated again.
Campaign song of the last two weeks: Survivor – Eye Of The Tiger (Lyrics)
Total Raised this Cycle: $210,304
Cash on Hand: $104,098
Freedom’s Promise 
Cash on Hand: $63,165
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $167,263

Springfield Attorney Lori Rook
She is an impressive candidate who has merged some of her efforts alongside Senator Eigel’s and picked up some of the grassroots support from the folks at the lake. Although she has raised the ire of the school choice community.
How she wins: Some money comes in and hits Malek and she being the only woman in the race picks up the momentum and carries the day.
Campaign song of the last two weeks: Christina Aguilera – Fighter (Official HD Video)
Total Raised this Cycle: $555,434
Cash on Hand: $263,262
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $263,262

___________________________________________________________________________

Statewide Bench: Republicans

#1 House Floor Leader Jon Patterson
Total Raised this Cycle: $523,825
Cash on Hand: $235,191
Missouri Alliance
Cash on Hand: $593,461
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $828,652

#2 Senator Tony Luetkemeyer
Total Raised this Cycle: $1,261,641
Cash on Hand: $1,084,962
Tony PAC
Cash on Hand: $412,254
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $1,497,216

#3 State Senator Lincoln Hough
Total Raised this Cycle: $525,906
Cash on Hand: $519,989
Lincoln PAC
Cash on Hand: $639,074
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $1,159,063

#4 State Senator Nick Schroer
Total Raised this Cycle: $87,413
Cash on Hand: $71,511
1776 PAC
Cash on Hand: $113,544
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $185,055

#5 State Senator Mary Elizabeth Coleman
Total Raised this Cycle: $194,631
Cash on Hand: $122,517
Conservative Solutions for Missouri 
Cash on Hand: $131,590
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $254,107

#6 Senator Travis Fitzwater
Total Raised this Cycle: $82,749
Cash on Hand: $120,795
Kingdom Leadership PAC 
Cash on Hand: $44,979
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $165,774

#7 State Representative Bill Hardwick
Total Raised this Cycle: $120,483
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $109,979

#8 State Representative Bishop Davidson
Total Raised this Cycle: $47,592
Cash on Hand: $35,697
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $35,697

#9 State Representative Melanie Stinnett
Total Raised this Cycle: $99,596
Cash on Hand: $81,607
Heart of SGF
Cash on Hand: $22,350
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $103,957

#10 Cole County Judge Chris Limbaugh
Total Raised this Cycle: $N/A
Cash on Hand: $N/A
Cash on Hand: $N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $N/A

Others:
Senator Jason Bean flirted with an SOS run, but is seeking re-election.
State Senator Curtis Trent – He is an excellent senator, likely in leadership, after that you figure he will take on the next challenge.
Rep. Adam Schawdron, Senator Andrew Koenig, and former Senator Onder – Have now all left the tipsheet for statewide campaigns.
Senate Floor Leader Cindy O’Laughlin – She seems to enjoy the senate, but after that, I’d be surprised if she was done. 

Statewide Bench: Democrats

#1 Senator Brian Williams
Total Raised this Cycle: $447,930
Cash on Hand: $185,137
BPAC
Cash on Hand: $N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $N/A

#2 Senator Greg Razer
Total Raised this Cycle: $125,285
Cash on Hand: $53,523
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $125,285

#3 Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas
Total Raised this Cycle: $1,000
Cash on Hand: $719,085

#4 State Representative Keri Ingle
She is one of the most talented politicians in the next wave of democrats moving up in the ranks. She flipped a red seat in the Lee’s Summit area and has done nothing but impress everyone in Jefferson City since.
She seems like she is in line to run for SD8 next cycle, but the Democrats couldn’t find any better statewide candidate than her going forward.
Total Raised this Cycle: $56,598
Cash on Hand: $71,080
Keri PAC
Cash on Hand: $13,402
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $84,482

#5 President of the St. Louis City Board of Aldermen Megan Green
Total Raised this Cycle: $83,579
Cash on Hand: $14,325
Progress PAC
Cash on Hand: $5,767
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $20,092

#6 Senator Tracy McCreery
Total Raised this Cycle: $65,374
Cash on Hand: $63,022
Serve Missouri PAC
Cash on Hand: $11,911
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $74,933

#7 State Representative Betsy Fogle
Total Raised this Cycle: $74,084
Cash on Hand: $74,782
Forward PAC
Cash on Hand: $4,479
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $79,261

#8 State Senator Doug Beck
Total Raised this Cycle: $388,039
Cash on Hand: $434,637
DougPAC
Cash on Hand: $504,585
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $939,222

#9 State Representative Ashley Aune
Total Raised this Cycle: $59,126
Cash on Hand: $58,143
AshPAC
Cash on Hand: $4,567
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $62,710

#10 Former Columbia Mayor Brian Treece
Total Raised this Cycle: $N/A
Cash on Hand: $N/A

Others:
‘22 State Rep candidate Jess Piper – She can organize and fundraise and no one in this state can piss off Republicans quite like Jess Piper. Jackson County Prosecutor Jean Peters Baker – She is now free from county office, would she throw her hat in the ring?
Kansas City City Councilman Wes Rogers – Everyone just loves Wes. He has a better understanding of the regular people of the state that used to vote Democratic than maybe anyone in the Democratic party. Rep. LaKeysha Bosley– Legendary St. Louis name, and even more talent. I don’t know what she does next or when, but she will be good at it..