#1 SD21 R+26.44% Senator Hoskins is term-limited.
PRIMARY: LEAN GREGORY: SAFE REPUBLICAN
This race started off at the top of our list as the most competitive and has remained there the entire cycle. It is a barn burner and is tight. Both candidates are all in on this race. We give Rep. Gregory the edge because he has a significant financial advantage in this one, but it’s close and will remain close.
Rep. Kurtis Gregory
Total Raised this Cycle: $229,363
Cash on Hand: $248,778
The Wonderdog PAC
Cash on Hand: $191,264
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $440,042
Rep. Doug Richey
Total Raised this Cycle: $131,523
Cash on Hand: $131,555
Cultivating Freedom PAC
Cash on Hand: $81,507
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $213,062
#2 SD23 R+6.08% Senator Eigel is term-limited.
PRIMARY: LEAN CHRISTOFANELLI GENERAL: LIKELY REPUBLICAN
There isn’t a tighter race in the state in a race that has been one of the dirtiest races in recent Missouri political history marked with some of the most homophobic mail pieces I’ve ever seen. Christofanelli has the edge going into the last week, however this race might be the first race where folks are ashamed of what they gave money to.
Rep. Phil Christofanelli
Total Raised this Cycle: $232,332
Cash on Hand: $303,872
Gladius PAC
Cash on Hand: $271,771
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $575,643
Rep. Adam Schnelting
Total Raised this Cycle: $126,568
Cash on Hand: $120,377
Protect our Kids PAC
Cash on Hand: $69,205
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $189,582
Former County Elections Official Rich Chrismer
Total Raised this Cycle: $73,005
Cash on Hand: $63,510
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $63,510
#3 SD27 R+48.44% Senator Rehder is running for Lt. Governor.
PRIMARY: LEAN BURGER GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
This race has been an interesting one. Some folks thought that Rep. Dinkins couldn’t win coming from so far from the population base, but she has run a great race. There are some attacks that could land on Rep. Burger, but in the last two weeks, Burger has the resource advantage and is consolidating Cape County. Keep an eye on Jacob Turner. Even if he doesn’t win this cycle I’d bet that he will win one in the near future.
Rep. Jamie Burger
Total Raised this Cycle: $374,643
Cash on Hand: $129,327
Bootheel Values PAC
Cash on Hand: $134,993
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $264,320
Rep. Chris Dinkins
Total Raised this Cycle: $179,502
Cash on Hand: $100,199
Red Hawk PAC
Cash on Hand: $38,579
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $138,778
Jacob Turner
Total Raised this Cycle: $102,275
Cash on Hand: $70,057
Faith and Family PAC
Cash on Hand: $35,236
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $105,293
#4 SD33 R+57.16% Senator Eslinger is seeking re-election.
PRIMARY: TOSS UP GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Out of the gates Rep. Smith jumped out to a lead, but in the last few weeks Rep. Hudson has made it close. However, it could be that Rep. Hudson made a move to spend early to get a good poll and raise some money. If you will remember there were some wildly inaccurate polls in the 33rd in 2020, so I guess we will see. Up to now the new money has not materialized.
With the large financial advantage this race is still very competitive, but leaning Smith.
Rep. Travis Smith
Total Raised this Cycle: $70,041
Cash on Hand: $53,417
Conservative Leadership of the Ozarks
Cash on Hand: $207,940
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $261,357
Rep. Brad Hudson
Total Raised this Cycle: $126,221
Cash on Hand: $94,935
Brad PAC
Cash on Hand: $27,763
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $122,698
#5 SD3 R+35.8% Senator Gannon is not seeking re-election.
PRIMARY: LEAN HENDERSON GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
This is still a race, but Rep. Henderson has been able to consolidate St. Francois County and discourage some other funders from getting involved. Rep. Buchheit-Courtway could still win this and no question it’s competitive, but Henderson has a slight advantage heading into the final week.
Rep. Mike Henderson
Total Raised this Cycle: $383,801
Cash on Hand: $65,560
Leadbelt PAC
Cash on Hand: $75,388
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $140,948
Rep. Cyndi Buchheit-Courtway
Total Raised this Cycle: $90,033
Cash on Hand: $73,577
Missouri Matters PAC
Cash on Hand: $74,800
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $148,377
#6 SD15 R+7.72% Senator Koenig is term limited.
PRIMARY: LEAN GREGORY GENERAL: LEAN REPUBLICAN
There are arguments for all of these candidates. Wildwood Mayor Jim Bowlin has taken the Koenig approach of hitting all the doors, but has come up short on spending. Councilman Harder has a high floor of name ID, and former Rep. Gregory has a mix of doors ground game and a big financial advantage.
That combination of ground game and finances gives him the advantage.
Former Rep. David Gregory
Total Raised this Cycle: $804,363
Cash on Hand: $0
Show Me Growth PAC
Cash on Hand: $44,136
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $44,136
St. Louis County Councilman Mark Harder
Total Raised this Cycle: $120,423
Cash on Hand: $90,756
St. Louis Conservative Leadership PAC
Cash on Hand: $14,580
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $105,336
Wildwood Mayor Jim Bowlin
Total Raised this Cycle: $204,438
Cash on Hand: $95,966
Conservatives for Accountability
Cash on Hand: $6,586
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $102,552
Joe Pereles
Total Raised this Cycle: $660,736
Cash on Hand: $498,906
Fearless PAC
Cash on Hand:$113,683
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $612,589
#7 SD7 D+17.74% Senator Razer has taken an appointment.
PRIMARY: TOSS UP GENERAL: SAFE DEMOCRAT
Most folks thought that this race was gonna be wrapped up when Senator Razer resigned and Pat Contreras would step in. However, Rep. Lewis has barnstormed the district and made this a very close race.
Contreras has a lot of institutional support, while Lewis has a lot of enthusiasm. I think this will be a real test of what type of advantage being a woman is in a Democratic primary.
Pat Contreras
Total Raised this Cycle: $150,001
Cash on Hand: $127,550
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $127,550
Patty Lewis
Total Raised this Cycle: $188,620
Cash on Hand: $121,136
Ready to Lead
Cash on Hand: $80,648
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $201,784
#8 SD11 R+4.06% Senator Rizzo is term limited.
PRIMARY: LEAN McMULLEN GENERAL: TOSS-UP
Rep. McMullen started this race with a lead, but Nicola has come on strong. There is no question his campaign has momentum. However, it’s in this final stretch your gonna see the financial advantage of Rep. McMullen come into play. The question of the final week is whether McMullen’s financial advantage can blunt Nicola’s momentum.
Rep. Aaron McMullen
Total Raised this Cycle: $154,863
Cash on Hand: $67,777
Independence PAC
Cash on Hand: $165,951
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $233,728
Joe Nicola
Total Raised this Cycle: $77,193
Cash on Hand: $33,884
Truth and Light
Cash on Hand: $9,120
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $43,004
David Martin
Total Raised this Cycle: $7,343
Cash on Hand: $379
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $379
Rep. Robbie Sauls
Total Raised this Cycle: $406,424
Cash on Hand: $169,854
Independence Leadership PAC
Cash on Hand: $259,361
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $429,215
#9 SD13 D+63.2% Senator Mosley is seeking re-election.
PRIMARY: LEAN MOSLEY GENERAL: SAFE DEMOCRAT
This race has been exciting as any North County political fight always is. You know Senator Mosley is gonna turn her folks out. However, the charismatic Rep. Nickson-Clark has brought in some support that could make this race competitive. About the time the race was humming along, someone close to her got in trouble. I don’t think that is the end of her race, but it ain’t good.
This is one of the hardest districts in the state to handicap, and as of now it leans to the incumbent.
Senator Mosley
Total Raised this Cycle: $148,658
Cash on Hand: $79,535
Mosley PAC
Cash on Hand: $N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $79,535
Rep. Chantelle Nickson-Clark
Total Raised this Cycle: $39,931
Cash on Hand: $3,138
Chantelle PAC
Cash on Hand: $9,874
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $13,012
#10 SD31 R+29.09% Senator Brattin is seeking re-election.
PRIMARY: LEAN BRATTIN
This race was set to be a barn burner and it’s still competitive with some wild dynamics. However, the race moved to LEAN BRATTIN the day that the landfill bill passed, and he hasn’t done anything to move the race since. There is a great radio ad running from Houx, and Haffner is burning up the doors, but until there is a good poll showing otherwise the race is leaning Brattin.
Senator Rick Brattin
Total Raised this Cycle: $383,434
Cash on Hand: $76,164
True Patriot PAC
Cash on Hand: $46,257
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $122,421
Rep. Mike Haffner
Total Raised this Cycle: $61,667
Cash on Hand: $76,325
CLCP PAC
Cash on Hand: $9,721
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $86,046
Rep. Dan Houx
Total Raised this Cycle: $485,450
Cash on Hand: $137,055
H-PAC
Cash on Hand: $294,231
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $431,286
#11 SD29 R+54.04% Senator Moon is seeking re-election.
PRIMARY: LIKELY MOON
There was a chance that this race could have been competitive. However, I suspect a lof of of the folks who were encouraging Haralson to run and alluding to large checks aren’t coming through. Senator Moon will be re-elected.
Senator Moon
Total Raised this Cycle: $343,677
Cash on Hand: $62,274
Life and Liberty MO PAC
Cash on Hand: $47,542
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $109,816
Susan Haralson
Total Raised this Cycle: $27,067
Cash on Hand: $9,519
Present Day Conservatives
Cash on Hand: Limited Activity
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $9,519
#12 SD9 D+62.8% Senator Washington is seeking re-election.
PRIMARY: LEAN WASHINGTON GENERAL: SAFE DEMOCRAT
There hasn’t been all that much activity thus far in SD9. All of that aides the incumbent thus we’re moving the race to LIKELY WASHINGTON.
Senator Barb Washington
Total Raised this Cycle: Limited Activity
Cash on Hand: Limited Activity
Eastside Forward PAC
Cash on Hand: $N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $N/A
Former Rep. Brandon Ellington
Total Raised this Cycle: Limited Activity
Cash on Hand: Limited Activity
#13 SD17 D+7.74% Senator Arthur is term-limited.
LEAN DEMOCRAT
The chaos in the national Democratic party takes this race from a LIKELY DEMOCRATIC seat to a LEAN DEMOCRATIC seat. Rep. Nurrenbern doesn’t need Kamala Harris to win SD17, but it would be helpful if she doesn’t get blown out either.
Rep. Maggie Nurrenbern
Total Raised this Cycle: $323,364
Cash on Hand: $319,590
Northland Forward
Cash on Hand: $170,219
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $489,809
Clay County Presiding Commissioner Jerry Nolte
Total Raised this Cycle: $39,523
Cash on Hand: $48,610
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $48,610
#14 SD19 D+13.38% Senator Rowden is term-limited.
SAFE DEMOCRAT
Former Rep. Webber will be easily re-elected in the fall.
Former Rep. Stephen Webber
Total Raised this Cycle: $542,409
Cash on Hand: $377,688
Homefront PAC
Cash on Hand: $437,737
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $815,425
#15 SD1 D+8.08% Senator Beck is seeking re-election.
LIKELY DEMOCRAT
Senator Beck will be easily re-elected in the fall.
Senator Doug Beck
Total Raised this Cycle: $388,039
Cash on Hand: $434,637
DougPac
Cash on Hand: $504,585
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $939,222
#16 SD5 D+ 80.86% Senator Roberts is seeking re-election.
SAFE DEMOCRAT
Senator Roberts will be easily re-elected in the fall.
Senator Steven Roberts
Total Raised this Cycle: $114,632
Cash on Hand: $9,014
STL Democratic Coalition PAC
Cash on Hand: $33,047
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $42,061
#17 SD25 R+54.04% Senator Bean is seeking re-election.
SAFE REPUBLICAN
Senator Bean will be easily re-elected in the fall.
Senator Bean
Total Raised this Cycle: $347,435
Cash on Hand: $107,239
Conservative Leadership for Southeast Missouri
Cash on Hand: $148,822
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $256,061
Scott Faughn is the publisher of The Missouri Times, owner of the Clayton Times in Clayton; SEMO Times in Poplar Bluff; and host of the only statewide political television show, This Week in Missouri Politics.
