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TWMP Column: Senate grinding down

From what I’m hearing there is only two ways out of SJR74.

1) Senate leadership says thank you Senator Rizzo for a budget, we really appreciate the FRA so we have hospitals in our districts, and for being the greatest statesman possible for the last 10 years, now we’re gonna screw you in your last week in the senate with a PQ.

2) Senator Eigel at some point before he has to leave for a graduation or when he returns forces a PQ vote without the votes to pass it, and it fails.

With #1 Senator Rizzo leads his caucus to end session and a legion of Democratic Senators never forget it.

With #2 Senator Eigel leads his caucus to end session on the rallying cry that if they can’t get the IP bill the way they want then they don’t want anyone else to get anything.

On the PQ side:
Senator Eigel can bring his 5 votes.
Senator Coleman clearly still has some Representatives in her for 6.
I assume Senators Carter and Moon would smear the Senate for 8.
Something tells me Senator Ben Brown will vote for it, but I predict this will be one of the last PQs he votes for before he chooses to actually be a Senator for 9.

Now since it takes 10 signatures on a PQ motion to get it to the floor, then the other 15 could just get together and deny them the votes. However, I doubt that happens.

Senator Crawford is probably really for the “Clean Missouried” SJR, but I think she would have a heavy heart voting to PQ, but if I’m on the PQ side you probably have to have her as number 10 in order to get to 18.

Then you have a group of senators who are probably looking to Senator O’Laughlin to see what she does.

Senator Bean would probably feel some pull to go along with his leadership mate. Senators Trent, Black, and Fitzwater would probably feel some pull to join her if she is in. I don’t see the math getting there without Senator O’Laughlin sticking it to Rizzo and bringing these five with her to get to 15.

Some will disagree but I don’t put Senator Luetkemeyer in that group. I could see him sending a message that he is putting his foot down and not being a PQ vote, but plenty will assume he will go along to get along. The path to 18 gets very narrow without him.

Then you have the Real Senator Caucus. The ones who have always been actual senators and refuse to smear shit on the Senate with PQs.

Senators Cierpiot, Bernskoetter, Brown, Rowden, and Hough. It would shock me to see any of them do down that path.

Senator Rehder is absolutely a real senator and I tend to doubt her statewide race would be enough to lead her down the PQ path, but it’s hard to always know for sure. If I had to guess it would be hard to get her.

This is where Missouri Right to Life has created some issues for themselves. If you ever refuse to be with them on anything, whether it has to do with abortion or not, they are 100% against you. So there isn’t as much political value in coming over and voting for something like this.

Then there are Senators Eslinger and Gannon. Neither are running for re-election and both are very legitimate senators. I really think there is a very small chance to get either of them to vote for a PQ on this issue, this week.

In order to get to 18 a lot of things have to go right.

They will need Eigel Inc.’s 5, Carter and Moon, Coleman, and maybe one PQ out of Ben Brown before he garners an appropriate appreciation of the institution. I think those 9 are likely to be representatives this week.

Then there is no doubt you would have to get Senator Crawford to go along with Senator O’Laughlin convincing Senators Bean, Trent, Fitzwater, and Black to get to 15. Then Senator Luetkemeyer or Senator Rehder and likely both would have to get you to 17.

Then it would come down to picking off one of Senator Gannon, Eslinger or the other 5 legitimate senators.

I’m pessimistic that they get there. I would assume that at least a couple senators would vote yes knowing that they won’t have 18, and that only gets you to the 15-16 range.

However, as always the greatest thing about politics is the scoreboard.