TWMP Column: Winners from primary night

Winners from primary night

Lt. Governor Mike Kehoe – What an amazing campaign. He fought back from being down 30% to win the race by handily. The moment of the campaign Ill remember is when he went to take the podium at Farm Bureau the day before the election, the ovation wouldn’t stop. They wouldn’t stop clapping. It’s the type of outpouring of emotion that folks in rural Missouri feel for the Governor they more than anywhere else elected.

Attorney General Andrew Bailey – Boy the east coast elites came for him…big time. Over $15 million in New York and D.C. money was thrown at the Montgomery County war hero and he stared them down and won a landslide 65% – 35% win to make him the heir apparent to a Governor Kehoe.

Governor Mike Parson – The ol’ Polk County Sheriff knows this state. He has picked five statewide office holders, and the people of Missouri have confirmed his judgement in seven statewide elections. Amazing record.

State Treasurer Vivek Malek – Speaking of those Parson winners State Treasurer Malek had some questions. Ok he had one question – would Missouri Republicans nominate a man of color?
Well he took the issue head on putting his photograph on every mailer, every billboard, and taking the immigration issue head on.
It got nasty at the end. The Smith campaign went down the dark and nasty holes folks might have expected, but in the end it didn’t matter he won in a landslide.

Missouri Agriculture – Huge wins for the agriculture community. For the first time Farm Bureau got involved in primaries and had a strong night. The AG community of Farm Bureau, the Cattlemen, Soybean, Corn, and more was deeply involved in the Governor, Attorney General, and Rep. Kurtis Gregory and Jamie Burger’s campaigns. The fair will be more fun this year with a crop of winners in attendance.

House Minority Leader Crystal Quade – Her own party didn’t do her any favors, and her opponent used his family fortune to swamp her in spending, but in the end the voters had her back. She wiped the floor with Hamra, and comes out the race with a…”crystal” clear view of who is on her side going forward.

Axiom Strategies – The folks at Axiom had a big night with Kehoe then on the senate races with Kurtis and David Gregory, Jamie Burger, Rick Brattin, along with the upset with Brad Hudson, and the 80 candidates they had in state rep. races they had a strong night. If any of those 80 are running for state senate, this year’s primaries were a reminder they’re the folks you want in your corner.

Bayer – They got politically involved at a big level, and helped shape their fight next session with their wins.

MATA – Just because Bayer had a good night doesn’t meant that MATA had a bad night. Sure they invested big in Eigel and came in 2nd, but they re-elected the heart of their senate firewall in Moon and Brattin and added Schnelting and I assume Joe Nicola will be vying with Rep. Sauls for their help this fall. They had a good night, and now everyone who is running for not just state senate, but Governor as well will be vying for their support from their first day in office.

Rep. Brad Hudson – He pulled off what some would consider a small upset in SD33. Big local primaries in Taney and Stone spiked turnout and his hustle in Texas County put him over the top in a big win.

Mike Hafner – From Bailey to Wasinger the dude had a hell of a night. The White Knight of the Missouri Republican Party has come a long way from when the Greitens folks tried to blackball him!

Rep. David Gregory – Many folks who lose a race just slink off into anonymity. Not David Gregory. I wrote after his loss in ’22 that Ashcroft, Bond, Richardson, Carnahan, Holden, McCaskill and many many others had lost races before they went on to become legends of Missouri politics. David Gregory just showed the state that he has that kind of pedigree.

David Barklage – He was at the center of the two best camapigns in recent memory in Kehoe and Bailley as well as part of several successful seante runs, but for several cycles folks will refernece Kehoe and Bailey as amazing campaigns.

The Carpenter’s Union – They had a big night with Kehoe, Bailey, Gregory, Henderson & Burger. More validation for their strategy they implemented a long time ago is that no one mentioned “Right to Work” the entire cycle.

Senators Mike Moon and Rick Brattin – Senator Moon’s re-election was always safe. On the other hand, Senator Brattin had an interesting re-election in a newly drawn district. However, after Senators O’Lauglin and Cierpiot passed the landfill bill, aka the Rick Brattin Re-Election Act he was home free. I still say the best work done in the state senate was Senator Brattin getting them to pass his bill, and giving them nothing in return. Chef’s kiss of senate maneuvering.

Senator Doug Beck – He saw his friend and ally Rep. Quade cruise to victory in her primary. SD17 was already set with no primaries. He might have preferred a different republican in SD15 than former Rep. Gregory, but he had to be counting on that matchup. It was in SD11 where he caught a break when Nicola defeated the candidate that several folks thought was the stronger of the two general election candidates in Rep. McMullen. Now he wins the 11th either way. Either Rep. Robbie Sauls is the 11th member of his caucus or Nicola is a member of the Freedom Caucus he will do the work of 3 democrats of killing republican legislation.

Rep. Kurtis Gregory – He won the biggest senate race in the state in the biggest contrast of any race on the ballot and he won one for rural Missourah.

Western District Appellate Court Judge Tom Chapman and Eastern District Appellate Court Judge Michael Gardner – When the senate map came out a lot of folks (ok mostly me) said it was an awful map that was a wet kiss to suburban candidates at the expense of rural Missourahians. However, Kurtis Gregory and Mike Henderson proved everyone (ok mostly me) wrong. In hindsight they did an excellent job.

Joe Nicola – I’ll be the first to admit that I thought he made a questionable decision in switching districts from SD8 where he had an impressive showing in ’22. However, he proved everyone wrong in winning a primary in SD11 while being greatly outspent. Now he has to bring some folks together to fight what will be a tough general in the fall.

HRCC – They had some of their best recruits come through their primaries and have some stellar new additions to the caucus in future Reps. Cathy Lo Joy, Melissa Schmidt, Bryant Wolfin, Terri Violet, Chris Warwick, Brandon Phelps, John Hewkin, Mike Steinmeyer, Judge David Dolan, and my personal pick to be a rockstar: Bill Irwin.

AIPAC – #scoreboard. They came to take out an anti-Israel incumbent and they did it. #scoreboard

Senator Denny Hoskins – He was in the most complicated race of the cycle. A race where his opponents were constantly shifting right up until the last day of filing and he won it by hustling to every corner of the state…and a stylish Pearce-esque red jacket.

It was a bit more complicated night for 

Missouri Right to Life – They had their share of wins, but the Governor’s race was a race where they did and exclusive endorsement and came in 3rd. Susan Klein is very savvy and I’d reckon that she took some things from this summer that will help their anti-IP campaign in the fall.
Moreover, if the IP passes then all the intensity returns to the pro-life side of the abortion issue and all will be well again.

School Choice advocates – They were in the best position they have ever been in at the close of session. Then they turned on some of the 82 votes they had in the house in senate primaries and missed. The winners are typically quite forgiving, but how quickly will other rural house members be to forget how quickly the loyalties shifted?

Senator Cindy O’Laughlin – The voters sent her four allies in the conservative cause, while they re-elected Senator Brattin (with a lot of legislative help from senate leadership) as well as new Senators who are part of the group whose stated task is tanking republican leadership in future senators Hudson and Schnelting. The really interesting part of all of this is what does she do in SD11.
Four years ago Senator Koenig convinced Senators Schatz and Rowden to fund his campaign. Turns out that was an idiotic decision that ended with them stripping him of his chairmanship.
Can Joe Nicola convince Senator O’Laughlin that funding his campaign isn’t just Charlie Brown trusting Lucy to actually hold the ball this time? Her decision (I’ll bet she caves and funds her enemies just like Dave and Caleb did) and how fast it blows up in her face (it 100% will just like Wile E. Coyote) will go a long way in determining what kind of night this was for her.