This week was all about the 4th of July celebrations, but there was a poll from ARW Strategies showing Eigel had caught Ashcroft at 19% with Kehoe leading at 24% with 38% still undecided.
I’ve seen internal numbers from two of the campaigns and several non-public interest group polls and the general average is that Kehoe has reached the upper 20s while Ashcroft is hovering around 20% and Eigel is somewhere in the upper teens.
However, the two to three-week trendline shows Kehoe with a slow but steady climb, the same slow to steady regression for Ashcroft with Eigel putting together some momentum.
There is a trend that if Kehoe can continue to push his fundraising machine going, he brought in $185,000 in over $5,000 contributions to his American Dream PAC this holiday aborted week, then he can run his message with no worries, and have plenty left over to attack either Eigel or Ashcroft. The question is which one will it be?
He kept up the bus tour with appearances at the Independence Day parade in Marshfield, the oldest continuous parade west of the Mississippi. Kehoe attended the Houston Summer Festival with his wife Claudia. He also posted pictures of supporters participating in Independence Day parades across the state, as well as a video of him doing work on his farm.
Ashcroft had the biggest week of the three. He had some not-so-great news with the latest polling trends, but he did finally break through with a big fundraising week bringing in $270,000 from a collection of lobbyist PACs and an out-of-state plaintiff’s law firm.
He also took a hit on questions as to whether or not he is actually an engineer. He doesn’t seem to be an actual engineer, but he did complete a degree in engineering management, but because he hasn’t obtained an actual license he would legally be an engineer-intern. It’s not a fatal blow, but it does look fishy.
On the flip side, his first ad came out promoting himself and hitting Kehoe. The ad hits Kehoe for the gas tax and allowing Missourians to sell their land. It’s a fine ad, actually quite well produced, but it does show the challenge he faces by being so financially outgunned even in his introductory ad he has to combine promoting himself with hitting Kehoe. However, that may be the way all these campaigns have to use their resources to try and accomplish two things at once.
Ashcroft further had a big holiday weekend. He also posted pictures of parade supporters across the state while also participating in Jefferson City’s and Marshfield’s parades. Throughout the holiday he made stops in Mississippi, Barry, and Camden counties while also stopping in Branson for the Branson Landing Liberty Light Up.
Before the holiday Eigel hosted his Family Freedom Fest in Springfield. Like the other candidates, Eigel posted various pictures of supporters in various parades across the state. Eigel also released an ad this week. The ad shows Eigel using a flamethrower to burn a Chinese flag.
The ad is reminiscent of a video last year that showed Eigel burning a stack of cardboard boxes that he said represented the woke liberal agenda. The video went viral and was a large topic of discussion going into the 2024 Legislative Session. You can watch the ad here. Eigel’s show of support over the holiday did not culminate in any monetary gain when it came to fundraising. The truth is that Eigel’s over the top antics are pretty in tune with the electorate. If he gets enough money to put some real points behind these types of buys he will continue to climb in the polls.
Contributions over $5,000 This Week
Kehoe: $185,000
Ashcroft: $270,000
Bill Eigel: $0
American Dream PAC (Kehoe)
MO State Council of Firefighters (Fire Fighters for Kehoe): $50,000
Hogan Truck Leasing Transportation Executive:$10,000
Missouri Law Enforcement for Good Government PAC (Cops for Kehoe): $125,000
Committee for Liberty (Ashcroft)
Missouri Growth PAC: $40,000
MO Majority PAC: $40,000
Conservative Leaders of Missouri LLC: $45,000
Patricia Chandler: $45,000
Lanier Law Firm Attorney: $100,000
Believe in Life and Liberty (BILL) PAC
