Jefferson City, Mo. — As the August primary election looms less than a month away, a recent poll by the Trafalgar group shows U.S. Rep. Vicky Hartzler, Mo-04, with a lead of less than a point over former Gov. Eric Greitens in the Republican primary to replace retiring U.S. Sen. Roy Blunt.
The poll’s margin of error of 2.9% means that there is no way to definitively identify a leading candidate in the race.
The Republican primary has become a three candidate race between Hartzler, Greitens and Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt. Hartzler garnered 24% in the poll, with Greitens scoring 23.5% and Schmitt garnering 22.8%. 16.7% of the poll’s respondents remain undecided.
The poll was conducted from June 28 through June 30 and polled 1072 likely GOP primary voters. The Trafalgar group is noted as a reliable pollster, garnering an A- rating with a 66% correct prediction percentage from FiveThirtyEight.
Though the results aren’t definite, Hartzler leading in a poll from a highly-reputable pollster gives her some momentum.
Most polls, like a recent Remington poll, have shown Greitens and Schmitt as the leaders with Hartzler a few points behind. Remington has a B rating from FiveThirtyEight.
Hartzler recently gained endorsement from the Missouri Farm Bureau and has had staunch support from the other Missouri Senator, U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley.
Former President Donald Trump has yet to get involved in the primary, his endorsement will have major sway, though it is yet to be determined if he will endorse anyone in the race. Blunt doesn’t plan to get involved in the race to replace him.
Missouri’s U.S. Senate race will continue to garner national attention as one of the country’s most tightly contested primaries with a chance of a Democrat victory if the right conditions align for Trudy Busch Valentine or Lucas Kunce.
Featured Image: Senator Josh Hawley endorses Congresswoman Vicky Hartzler for U.S. Senate at Lincoln Days in St. Charles on Feb. 12, 2022. Hartzler garnered 24% of the respondent’s vote in a recent poll. (PROVIDED)
I’m a journalist hailing from the Detroit area. I love to tell investigative stories with a focus on everyday people.
You can contact me by email at matthew@missouritimes.com
