Thanks to all of our subscribers for their feedback on our tip sheets – here is an update from the feedback we received, including final ad buys and reports on GOTV efforts. As you can see, the state house races are trending Republican across the board with 5 more races moving from “lean Republican” to “safe Republican,” and two moving from “toss up” to “lean Republican.” The two Democratic races that are moving are two Jefferson County Democratic races, and they are moving to the toss up column. The weather report predicting a rainy 45 degree day isn’t helping Democrats chances. If we had to guess right now, you’re looking at something like 112-113 Republicans in the House – actually increasing their supermajority.
TOSS UP (5)
District 20 (D+5.8) – John Mayfield (D) vs. Bill E. Kidd (R)
MOH MAYFIELD: $19,249.26, KIDD: $14,154.99
RAISED MAYFIELD: $145,024.60, KIDD: $57,270.98
Mayfield should win this race, but Kidd’s work ethic, the off year electorate, and poor year for democrats in general keep this race a toss up. Some say that Kidd is winning the ground game against Mayfield, and this could come down to who has knocked the most doors. In an off year election we’re keeping this a toss up.
District 94 (D+2.5) – Vicki Englund (D) vs. Cloria Brown (R)
MOH ENGLUND: $38,918.32, BROWN: $15,920.23
RAISED ENGLUND: $204,833.71, BROWN: $104,825
This is a swing district that seems to swing Republican in midyear elections. If Senator Sifton runs for Attorney General, this is the last time Englund will seek the seat because she is a surefire contender to replace him in the Senate. The difference this time may be made by Englund’s time on the school board and that she never stopped campaigning from 2012. However, Brown has every change to keep the tennis match going as HRCC seems to have fully committed to winning her race.
District 111 (D+1.7) – Michael Frame (D) vs. Shane Roden (R) *CHANGED*
MOH FRAME: $31,195.95, RODEN: $9,665.24
RAISED FRAME: $132,232.84, RODEN: $42,906.42
It is no secret that 6 weeks ago, Frame may have been caught off guard that this was such a competitive race. Today he has got in full gear and now could be one of the few remaining Jefferson County Democrats in the General Assembly next week. If the Republican wave is as big as some optimistic Republicans think it will be, Frame could still lose. If Frame loses, mark JeffCo down as a ruby red county. Frame knew he had a problem early and has likely done enough to turn back Roden, but the Republicans are smelling blood and in a rainy 45 degree Tuesday can the NRA and labor turnout enough votes to buck a national trend that is very present in Jefferson County. If we had to guess it would be that Frame pulls this out but the race is probably now more a toss up than anything else.
District 114 (D+5.7) – T.J. McKenna (D) vs. Becky Ruth (R)
MOH MCKENNA: $12,559.54, RUTH: $20,118.11
RAISED MCKENNA: $86,471.63, RUTH: $84,929.44
McKenna has worked hard on the ground and done everything he could with constituent services. Ruth has run a good campaign with strong HRCC backing and very well could ride the Republican wave to a win. However, TJ’s an incumbent with the best name to have in Jefferson County politics. The 50 votes he won by in 2012 may be a landslide to how close this race is.
District 118 (D+6.9) – Ben Harris (D) vs. Michael McGirl (R) *CHANGED*
MOH HARRIS: $8,242.35, MCGIRL: $12,785.87
RAISED HARRIS: $32,593.75, MCGIRL: $51,615.38
Harris has voted like a rural Democrat, being pro gun and pro life enough to have the support of their groups. McGirl is a good candidate, but Harris should win this race unless the Republican wave turns out to be a tsunami. Keep in mind this seat isn’t just Jefferson County it has a lot of Washington County including some areas of Potosi in it and that is where we understand the race is trending for McGrill, a county elected official there. There are very very few things you can tie Ben Harris to Obama on, but there may literally be nothing this district has in common with Obama, and those few things may be the difference here. Harris has done everything right, and if he loses Tuesday then at Lincoln Day the MOGOP should award Republican of the Year to Barack Obama. It’s just too close to call.
LEANING
REPUBLICAN (7)
District 14 (D+2.9) – LEAN CORLEW – Stephanie Isaacson (D) vs. Kevin Corlew (R) *CHANGED*
Corlew is running hard in his second run for the house, and the general trend of the election seems to be drifting towards him. Isaacson is running a good race and this outcome might have been out of her hands. She may be another democrat whose political career unfortunately began while President Obama was in the White House
District 17 (D+4.3) – LEAN KING – Mark Ellebracht (D) vs. S. Nick King (R)
A different Democratic candidate may have changed the game in this finicky district who had previously elected the retiring Myron Neth.
District 29 (D+7) – LEAN TORPEY – John Sutton (D) vs. Noel Torpey (R)
This district has no business being in Republican hands and will likely leave the GOP after the Torpey leaves the house, but it’s leaning red for now with a Republican incumbent whose votes reflect the district and a campaign war chest to be jealous of.
District 35 (50/50) – LEAN CROSS – Ken Duvall (D) vs. Gary Cross (R)
There is a reason that we call this “lean” and not “safe,” because Cross could still lose this. A solid HRCC effort has helped protect one of its most vulnerable members. If Duvall loses, we could see a presidential year match up. Cross has the name ID, but Duvall is a good candidate.
District 105 (R+3.8) – LEAN PARKINSON – Matt Judkins (D) vs. Mark Parkinson (R) *CHANGED*
District 112 (D+2.2) – LEAN VESCOVO – Robert Butler (D) vs. Rob Vescovo (R) *CHANGED*
We feel confident that Vescovo should ride the Republican wave, but Butler has run a good campaign and worked hard. If this race is decided by issues of local importance like labor, Roorda issues per say then Butler has a chance, if national issues are at the forefront then Vescovo will win. We are keeping the race a toss up. The Jefferson County Republican wave/anti-Obama backlash gives Vescovo a big advantage. Keep in mind this is a lean because the Roorda get out the vote effort recently infused with a large Sinquefield donation could pull Bulter across. While Roorda could win and Butler lose there is likely no way Bulter wins and Roorda loses. The trends we are seeing are just too strong for this race not to tilt to lean Vescovo.
District 150 (R+13.8) – LEAN MCDANIEL – Walter Dearing (D) vs. Andrew McDaniel (R)
Dearing is a good candidate, but McDaniel has been aided by President Obama’s devastatingly bad numbers in rural areas like this one.
LEANING
DEMOCRAT (3)
District 47 (D+0.07) – LEAN WRIGHT– John Wright (D) vs. Chuck Basye (R)
What has possibly saved Wright is that he realized early on that he was in trouble and he has a very organized campaign. If he’s done his doors, he should win. Both candidates all over the airwaves in central Missouri, and Wright is taking some hits, but we look for him to pull it out.
District 70 (D+0.07) – LEAN OTTO – Bill Otto (D) vs. Joe Corica (R)
The district seems to run a little more blue than the numbers indicate. Otto has worked hard and has the support of labor. Corica has been well funded, but has had a few hiccups. A flawless campaign needs to be run to knock out this incumbent. Of course, due to recent events in nearby Ferguson, this area is politically unstable keeping the 70th as a lean and not safe.
District 90 (R+0.06) – LEAN LAVENDER – Deb Lavender (D) vs. Gina Jaksetic (R)
This is the heavyweight fight for the House races. Both sides have gone all in. This is Lavender’s 4th try , and she has done everything possible to win. However, HRCC has put full weight behind Jaksetic and Rick Stream on the ballot may give her a little help.
SAFE
REPUBLICANS (54)
District 1 (R+10.8) – SAFE ANDREWS – Robert Ritterbusch (D) vs. Allen Andrews (R)
District 2 (R+8.7) – SAFE EGGLESTON – Mike Waltemath (D) vs. J. Eggleston (R)
District 5 (R+8.8) – SAFE SHUMAKE – C. LeRoy Deichman (D) vs. Lindell Shumake (R)
District 6 (R+6) – SAFE REMOLE – Robert Harrington (D) vs. Tim Remole (R)
District 8 (R+1.6) – SAFE NEELY – Ted Rights (D) vs. Jim Neely (R)
District 12 (R+3.1) – SAFE WILSON – Sandy Van Wagner (D) vs. Kenneth Wilson (R)
District 33 (R+4.1) – SAFE PFAUTSCH – Syed Asif (D) vs. Donna Pfautsch (R) vs. Matt Stephens (L)
District 32 (R+4.3) – SAFE LAUER – Andy Herman (D) vs. Jeanie Lauer (R)
District 34 (R+4.9) – SAFE ROEBER – Dale Mercer (D) vs. Rebecca Roeber (R)
District 40 (R+1.5) – SAFE HANSEN – Lowell Jackson (D) vs. Jim Hansen (R)
District 41 (R+1.3) – SAFE PIETZMAN – Dan Dildine (D) vs. Randy Pietzman (R) *CHANGED*
District 42 (R+5.8) – SAFE KORMAN – Rod Sturgeon (D) vs. Bart Korman (R)
District 43 (R+5.3) – SAFE HOUGHTON – Ed Lockwood (D) vs. Jay Houghton (R)
District 44 (R+0.03)– SAFE ROWDEN – Tom Pauley (D) vs. Caleb Rowden (R) *CHANGED*
District 49 (R+6.3) – SAFE FITZWATER – Gracia Yancey Backer (D) vs. Travis Fitzwater (R)
District 51 (R+0.08) – SAFE DOHRMAN – Gary Grigsby (D) vs. Dean Dohrman (R) vs. Bill Wayne (L) *CHANGED*
District 53 (R+3.2) – SAFE KOLKMEYER – Henry Grubb (D) vs. Glen Kolkmeyer (R)
District 54 (R+3.9) – SAFE HOSKINS – Denny Hoskins (R) vs. Daniel Plemons (C)
District 56 (R+3.4) – SAFE BONDON – Patty Johnson (D) vs. Jack Bondon (R)
District 57 (R+4.1) – SAFE BROWN – William Grimes (D) vs. Wanda Brown (R) vs. Butch Page (C)
District 59 (R+15.7) – SAFE BERNSKOETTER – Mike Bernskoetter (R) vs. Michael Eberle (C)
District 61 (R+10.7) – SAFE ALFERMAN – Tom Smith (D) vs. Justin Alferman (R)
District 62 (R+7.2) – SAFE HURST – Bruce Sassman (D) vs. Tom Hurst (R)
District 63 (R+4.8) – SAFE SPENCER – Bryan Pinette (D) vs. Bryan Spencer (R)
District 64 (R+2.6) – SAFE CORNEJO – Laura Castenada (D) vs. Robert Cornejo (R) *CHANGED*
District 89 (R+12.6) – SAFE DIEHL – Al Gerber (D) vs. John Diehl (R)
District 96 (R+8.5) – SAFE LEARA – Mike Leara (R) vs. Cindy Redburn (C)
District 97 (D+2.8) – SAFE MCCAHERTY – Tom Dohack (D) vs. John McCaherty (R) *CHANGED*
District 99 (R+3.4) – SAFE KOENIG – Bill Pinkston (D) vs. Andrew Koenig (R)
District 101 (R+10.2) – SAFE GOSEN – Candace Farmer (D) vs. Don Gosen (R)
District 102 (R+9.6) – SAFE BAHR – John Callahan (D) vs. Kurt Bahr (R)
District 103 (R+7.8) – SAFE WIEMANN – John Wiemann (R) vs. Draig Hodge (L)
District 104 (R+2.1) – SAFE CONWAY – Terry Lesinski (D) vs. Kathie Conway (R)
District 106 (R+0.03) – SAFE SOMMER – Ken Tucker (D) vs. Chrissy Sommer (R)
District 108 (R+8.1) – SAFE HILL – Marlon Williams (D) vs. Justin Hill (R)
District 109 (R+4.8) – SAFE CURTMAN – Bobbie Bollmann (D) vs. Paul Curtman (R)
District 113 (D+4.8) – SAFE SHAUL – Sean Fauss (D) vs. Dan Shaul (R) vs. Donna Ivanocich (C) *CHANGED*
District 115 (D+7.9) – SAFE GANNON – Dan Darian (D) vs. Elaine Gannon (R) vs. Jerry Dollar
District 119 (D+0.08) – SAFE HINSON – Susan Cunningham (D), vs. Dave Hinson (R)
District 120 (R+7.2) – SAFE CHIPMAN – Zech Hockersmith (D) vs. Jason Chipman (R)
District 126 (R+6.1) – SAFE PIKE – Sam Foursha (D) vs. Patricia Pike (R) vs. William Gilmore (C)
District 129 (R+13.6) – SAFE CRAWFORD – John L. Wilson (D) vs. Sandy Crawford (R)
District 131 (R+10.7) – SAFE ANDERSON – Marlee Yant (D) vs. Sonya Murray Anderson (R)
District 134 (R+7.1) – SAFE HAAHR – Kevin Knox (D) vs. Elijah Haahr (R)
District 135 (R+1.9) – SAFE HOUGH – Angie Filbeck (D) vs. Lincoln Hough (R)
District 137 (R+13.3) – SAFE FRAKER – Sandy Grogan (D) vs. Lyndall Fraker (R) vs. Bill Boone (L)
District 140 (R+17.8) – SAFE MORRIS – Jim Billedo (D) vs. Lynn Morris (R)
District 145 (R+13.4) – SAFE KEENEY – Charles Elrond (D) vs. Shelley Keeney (R)
District 147 (R+11.4) – SAFE SWAN – Gary Gaines (D) vs. Kathy Swan (R) vs. Greg Tlapek (L)
District 149 (D+3.5) – SAFE RONE – Bill Burlison (D) vs. Don Rone (R)
District 151 (R+13.2) – SAFE HUBRECHT – Ryan Wm. Holder (D) vs. Tila Rowland Hubrecht (R)
District 153 (R+12.2) – SAFE COOKSON – Steve Cookson (R) vs. Ginny Keirms (L)
District 157 (R+16) – SAFE MOON – Vince Jennings (D) vs. Mike Moon (R)
District 161 (R+15.2) – SAFE WHITE – Hugh Shields (D) vs. Bill White (R)
District 163 (R+22.1) – SAFE FLANIGAN – Michael Jarrett (D) vs. Tom Flanigan (R)
SAFE
DEMOCRATS (19)
District 18 (D+19.3) – SAFE ARTHUR – Lauren Arthur (D) vs. Bob Rowland (R)
District 36 (D+16.9) – SAFE MCMANUS – Kevin McManus (D) vs. Nola Woods (R)
District 66 (D+36.2) – SAFE PIERSON – Tommie Pierson (D) vs. John Saxton (R)
District 67 (D+21.5) – SAFE GREEN – Alan Green (D) vs. Dwayne Strickland (R) vs. Jeff Coleman (L)
District 68 (D+15.9) – SAFE ENGLISH – Keith English (D) vs. Rheka Sharma (R)
District 69 (D+12.7) – SAFE MCNEIL – Margo McNeil (D) vs. John Vahey (R)
District 71 (D+8.9) – SAFE MEREDITH – Sue Meredith (D) vs. Jim Cain (R)
District 72 (D+11.1) – SAFE NICHOLS – Mary Nichols (D) vs. Paul Berry (R)
District 78 (D+36.2) – SAFE HUBBARD – Penny Hubbard (D) vs. John Hubb (R)
District 79 (D+37.5) – SAFE BUTLER – Michael Butler (D) vs. Robert Vroman (R)
District 80 (D+29.8) – SAFE COLONA – Mike Colona (D) vs. Michael Huett (R)
District 81 (D+24.4) – SAFE HUMMEL – Jake Hummel (D) vs. Lisa Schaper (R)
District 82 (D+13) – SAFE KRATKY – Michele Kratky (D) vs. Jake Koehr (R)
District 83 (D+15.5) – SAFE MITTEN – Gina Mitten (D) vs. Jeremy Buckingham (R) vs. Andrew Bolin (L)
District 88 (D+5) – SAFE MCCREERY – Tracy McCreery (D) vs. Raymond Chandler (R)
District 91 (D+4.2) – SAFE KIRKTON – Jeanne Kirkton (D) vs. Michael Peters (R)
District 92 (D+3.7) – SAFE MONTECILLO – Genise Montecillo (D) vs. Al Faulstich (R)
District 93 (D+10.7) – SAFE BURNS – Bob Burns (D) vs. Garrett Mees (R)
District 132 (D+5.4) – SAFE NORR – Charlie Norr (D) vs. Fred Ellison (R)
UNOPPOSED
REPUBLICANS (51)
District 3 (R+6.5) – Nate Walker (R)
District 4 (R+5.6) – Craig Redmon (R)
District 7 (R+7.2) – Mike Lair (R)
District 9 (R+8) – Delus Johnson (R)
District 11 (D+4.2) – Galen Higdon (R)
District 13 (R+3.8) – Nick Marshall (R)
District 16 (D+1.7) – Noel Shull (R)
District 30 (R+3.8) – Mike Cierpiot
District 31 (R+1.5) – Sheila Solon (R)
District 38 (R+1.6) – T.J. Berry (R)
District 39 (D+0.06) – Joe Don McGaugh (R)
District 48 (R+4.2) – Dave Muntzel (R)
District 50 (R+4.5) – Caleb Jones (R)
District 52 (R+5.6)- Nathan Beard (R)
District 55 (R+7.5) – Rick Brattin (R)
District 58 (R+10) – David Wood (R)
District 60 (R+6.4) – Jay Barnes (R)
District 65 (D+0.03) – Anne Zerr (R)
District 95 (R+4.9) – Marsha Haefner (R)
District 98 (R+7.9) – Shamed Dogan (R)
District 100 (R+10.2) – Sue Allen (R)
District 107 (R+1.6) – Ron Hicks (R)
District 110 (R+11.1) – Kirk Mathews (R)
District 116 (R+0.05) – Kevin Engler (R)
District 121 (R+9.3) – Keith Frederick (R)
District 122 (R+11.5) – Steve Lynch (R)
District 123 (R+14.8) – Diane Franklin (R)
District 124 (R+13.3) – Rocky Miller (R)
District 125 (R+4.7) – Warren Love (R)
District 127 (R+22.4) – Mike Kelley (R)
District 128 (R+14.1) – Sue Entlicher (R)
District 130 (R+14.6) – Jeff Messenger (R)
District 133 (R+11.8) – Eric Burlison (R)
District 136 (R+13.3) – Kevin Austin (R)
District 138 (R+15.3) – Don Phillips (R)
District 139 (R+16.6) – Jered Taylor (R)
District 141 (R+16.4) – Tony Dugger (R)
District 142 (R+9.9) – Robert Ross (R)
District 143 (R+7.2) – Jeff Pogue (R)
District 144 (D+1.2) – Paul Fitzwater (R)
District 147 (R+11.4) – Donna Lichtenegger (R)
District 148 (R+11.7) – Holly Rehder (R)
District 152 (R+10.4) – Todd Richardson (R)
District 154 (R+13.8) – Shawn Rhoads (R)
District 155 (R+14.5) – Lyle Rowland (R)
District 156 (R+14.6)- Jeff Justus (R)
District 158 (R+15)- Scott Fitzpatrick (R)
District 159 (R+19.2) – Bill Lant (R)
District 160 (R+20.6) – Bill Reiboldt (R)
District 162 (R+18.1) – Charlie Davis (R)
UNOPPOSED
DEMOCRATS (24)
District 10 (D+5.5) – Pat Conway (D)
District 15 (D+6.1) – Jon Carpenter (D)
District 19 (D+21.6) – John Rizzo (D)
District 21 (D+6.9) – Ira Anders (D)
District 22 (D+37.7) – Brandon Ellington (D)
District 23 (D+37.1) – Randy Dunn (D)
District 24 (D+37.1)- Judy Morgan (D)
District 25 (D+17.7) – Jeremy LaFaver (D)
District 26 (D+38.1) – Gail McCann Beatty (D)
District 27 (D+32.6) – Bonnaye Mims (D)
District 28 (D+11.5) – Tom McDonald (D)
District 37 (D+10.8) – Joe Runions (D)
District 45 (D+14.3) – Kip Kendrick (D)
District 46 (D+8.3) – Stephen Webber (D)
District 73 (D+31.7) – Courtney Curtis (D)
District 74 (D+29.2) – Sharon Pace (D)
District 75 (D+41) – Rochelle Walton Gray (D)
District 76 (D+46.5) – Joshua Peters (D)
District 77 (D+46.3) – Kimberly Gardner (D)
District 84 (D+37) – Karla May (D)
District 85 (D+32.9)- Clem Smith (D)
District 86 (D+36.5) – Joe Adams (D)
District 87 (D+10.8) – Stacey Newman (D)
District 117 (D+4.7)- Linda Black (D)
Rachael Herndon was the editor at The Missouri Times and also produced This Week in Missouri Politics, published Missouri Times Magazine, and co-hosted the #MoLeg podcast. She joined The Missouri Times in 2014, returning to political reporting after working as a campaign and legislative staffer.
Rachael studied at the University of Missouri – Columbia. She lives in Jefferson City with her husband, Brandon, and their two children.
