In what will likely be one of the most-watched races in the state, outside of SD 30’s general election, the fight over who represents Missouri’s newly drawn Fifth Congressional District is already turning heads. Not just for its potential legal twists, but for a Republican primary that’s shaping up to be as crowded as it is unpredictable.
Trying to pin down the early pecking order in CD 5 right now is a bit like ranking contestants in a bar fight before the first punch is thrown: everyone has a theory, nobody’s entirely sure, and there’s a decent chance the quiet guy in the corner walks out the winner.
I spent the past week talking with Republican consultants, operatives, and the usual cast of political obsessives who treat these races like a mix between chess match and contact sport. The consensus, if you can call it that, is that a top tier is beginning to form. But it comes with enough caveats, hypotheticals, and “ifs” to make one thing clear: this race is still wide open.
- Rick Brattin
If this race is a bar fight, Rick Brattin is the guy who’s been in the bar the longest and already knows where the exits are. A current State Senator and former House member who worked his way up to Majority Floor Whip, Brattin has the kind of resume that Republican primary voters don’t need explained: Marine Corps veteran, small business owner, former county auditor. He’s been on the ballot, and more importantly, he’s been on it enough.
He’s running a straight-line campaign as a “Missouri First” conservative, aligned with President Trump and hitting all the familiar notes: faith, patriotism, and a promise to keep swinging at the “woke agenda.” It’s not flashy, but it doesn’t have to be. In a primary like this, comfort food usually beats fine dining.
The upside is obvious: people know him, he’s got a base, and he’s got the kind of political network that only comes from sticking around long enough. Brattin has seen endorsements from Congressman Bob Onder, and State Treasurer Vivek Malek. Onder’s endorsement could come in handy in a race involving Cole County.
The risk is that being well-known is just a polite way of saying voters have already made up their minds once before. And in a district that now stretches far beyond his old stomping grounds, past success doesn’t automatically come with a map expansion.
Bottom line: The familiar face in the room, and, for now, the one everyone else is trying to outlast.
2. Taylor Burks
If Rick Brattin is the guy who’s been in the bar a while, Taylor Burks is the one who walks in with a résumé long enough to make you pause. A Navy commander with multiple deployments, former Boone County Clerk, state labor director, university administrator, and private-sector executive, Burks checks just about every box on paper.
The upside is clear. He brings a polished background, an outsider lane, and, most importantly, the ability to potentially self-fund at a seven-figure level. If that investment materializes and is paired with a disciplined campaign, he has a real path to the top tier, possibly even the top spot. With the support of figures like former Congressman Blaine Luetkemeyer and former Congresswoman Vikki Hartzler, Burks’s ceiling gets higher.
The risk is just as straightforward. Campaigns aren’t resumes, and money only matters if it actually shows up, and is spent well. Without it, or without message discipline, he risks getting pulled back into the pack in a hurry.
Bottom line: Burks has the highest ceiling if all the pieces come together.
3. Sean Smith
Smith has a very unique race ahead of him. He is certainly the most well-known of the five candidates in the population base of the district, a large part of Jackson County. A county councilman, who is the only Republican on the council, policy-minded, good-natured, and someone who has plenty of name ID in the KC region, Smith should in all cases be able to put up a good run but he does have the issue of another KC region candidate, Brett Hueffmeier, around to pick his pocket on votes.
The upside is that Smith is holding onto the population base of the district and is well known to voters there.
The risk is that Smith has another opponent sitting in his backyard and Smith has never been a huge fundraiser. Another problem he may run into is that he will be less known the more he ventures out of God’s country, that is Jackson County.
Bottom line: Smith needs to maintain his electoral hold over Jackson county and let the others split the rest all while dealing with Hueffmeier.
4. Brett Hueffmeier
To be totally candid, I don’t know Brett and I had never heard of him until I pulled up the Secretary of State’s website. This lack of an established background of course can come in handy in elections and he will not have any voting record to have to account for at all. BUT. That lack of establishment can hurt when some Jackson County electeds don’t know you well either.
The Upside is that Brett is coming into this as a relatively unknown candidate and he can use that to his advantage to jump into other candidates’ pockets for voters when the punches start flying.
The Risk is that Brett is unknown and won’t be able to fundraise and get his message out.
Bottom line: Hueffmeier’s real effectiveness is possibly going to be curbing Sean Smith’s votes.
5. Brad Patty
Similar to Hueffmeier’s predicament, Patty is relatively unknown. While unknown, Patty has been said to have a solid crew behind him on his campaign team and one that has been able to promote candidates with a strong record in military service. When I was at the Secretary of State’s office on filing day, Patty was impressive to watch in front of the media. Dressed in work pants, boots, and a flannel, he looked like a rural Missouri guy and one who can command a room. Patty’s ability reminded me of another veteran in Missouri politics, one who has the full potential to be Governor one day.
But that gentleman was Missouri’s Attorney General and Patty is an unknown vet who is somewhat new to the state.
The Upside comes into play if Patty’s crew can get him the needed airtime and funds to get his style and messaging to voters.
The Risk again comes from being unknown.
Bottom line: Patty has some promising pieces that simply need to be put together with the right resources, but those resources can be hard to get.
Right now, Brattin and Burks are looking like the top two contenders and that depends on if Brattin can bring the heat he brought in his Senate primary last cycle and if Burks will deliver on a seven-figure investment into his race. Smith can easily be a possible contender if he keeps a hold on Jackson County while the others fight over the rest of the district. Hueffmeier and Patty both suffer from being unknown but Patty has the potential for a higher ceiling if his crew plays the right cards.
Jake Kroesen is a Jackson County native and a graduate of the University of Central Missouri. He holds a B.S. in Political Science.
