The cycle in the Missouri Senate begins with a 24-10 Republican majority. Of the 17 returning senators, there are 10 returning Republican incumbents: Senators Bean, Brattin, Burger, Gregory 15, Gregory 21, Henderson, Hudson, Moon, Nicola, Schnelting, and 7 returning incumbent Democrats: Senators Beck, Lewis, Mosley, Nurrenbern, Roberts, Washington, and Webber.
Republicans are almost certain to hold SD 2, SD6, SD10, SD12, SD16, SD28, SD20, SD22, SD26, SD28, SD32, and SD34. While Democrats are just as certain to hold SD4, SD14, and SD24. After those predictable outcomes, the map will stand at 22-10.
SD8 and SD30 are the competitive races that, at this point, go either way, so as of the July reports, things stand at 22-10-2.
Here is the race-by-race breakdown ranked by the most competitive primary elections.
#1 SD 18 Senator Cindy O’Laughlin is term-limited.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
PRIMARY: TOSS UP
This race was thought to be set with Graff vs. Sharpe and Blue chirping on Facebook. However, the race pretty radically changed when Graff dropped out and Rep. Ed Lewis jumped in.
Rep. Lewis is the education chair in the house and a former teacher. He comes from Moberly where Randolph County holds around 12% of the votes in the primary, but he is going to inherit Senator O’Laughlin’s support and that crew in northern Missouri that typically doesn’t miss.
He will be taking on Rep. Greg Sharpe who is a guy who just looks and sounds like northeast Missouri. Rep. Sharpe is a farmer with an independent mind. Also he will need to do a little self funding before it’s over to keep pace.
Dusty Blue is a veteran and business owner from the Moberly area. He may find that just whining is more popular in St. Charles than in northwest Missouri, and god help him if anyone looks into his tweets. However, it’s an age for the angry and the loud, and Blue is angry and loud.
Rep. Ed Lewis
Cash on Hand: $35,499.49
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $35,499.49
Rep. Greg Sharpe
Cash on Hand: $47,085.47
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $47,085.47
Dusty Blue
Cash on Hand: $109,937.36
Candidate Loans: $100,000.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $109,937.36
#2 SD 10 Senator Travis Fitzwater is going to MTC
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
PRIMARY: TOSS UP
There was a time where Senator Fitzwater was #17 on this list cruising to re-election. Then a great opportunity came up and he is not running for re-election and this race is #2 on our list.
Several potential contenders passed on the race from House Pro Tem Chad Perkins, Reps. Schulte and Justus, and Judge Mike Carter.
However, the one rumored for months who is making the race is the Cattlemen’s Association Executive Mike Deering. To be honest Mike would make a terrible house member, just miserable, however, he has what is sorely lacking in today’s senate…guts.
From a political perspective he already has the job every suburban person pretends to have when they run for office, and should have a lot of chips to call in when he launches his campaign. The biggest being his relationship with Governor Kehoe who the Cattlemen were the first group to endorse Kehoe WAY early. Deering is on the school board, but this will be a different level of politics with his own name on the ballot. It might start Lean Deering, but lets see how the roll out plays out.
On filing day Rep. Byrnes went from running for St. Charles County Collector to State Senate. Rep. Byrnes has never been a big fundraiser, but I understand there are some folks who are going to help with that. She does hail from an advantageous part of the district near the vote-rich Lincoln County where 40% of the votes will come from, and where this race will be decided.
Cattleman’s VP Mike Deering
Cash on Hand: Limited Activity
Cut the Bull PAC:
Cash on Hand: n/a
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: n/a
Rep. Tricia Byrnes
Cash on Hand: $91,613.67
Candidate Loans: $65,000.00
Values First PAC
Cash on Hand: $3,400.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $95,013.67
#3 SD 6 Senator Mike Bernskoetter is term-limited.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
PRIMARY: LEAN VOGEL
This has historically been a Cole County seat for decades. However, there is a new wrinkle in the maps in that Cole and Moniteau only represent 53.3% of the district. The last time it wasn’t represented by a Cole Countian was when Larry Rohbach took the race when the Cole County vote was split among several of their own.
With Chuck Gatschenberger bowing out, former Rep. Lisa Thomas has stepped her campaign with a large loan to get things going. This race will be hard to handicap until filing because the big question is whether Camden County Presiding Commissioner Ike Skelton will run. If he does that will shake up the field. The interesting things to watch will be if Thomas will take too much of the lake vote for him to win, and what will the trial attorneys do. Skelton is their type of candidate they have had success electing, but they have one of their own in the race with Rep. Viet.
The reason this race has to be at least tempting Skelton is that there are three Cole County candidates that will split up that 53% of the vote. Competing for those votes as of today are Rep. Rudy Veit, former Jefferson City Councilman Derrick Spicer, and former Army Ranger Jake Vogel.
Rep. Veit will have the advantage of a larger area that he has represented than Spicer, and he has the ability to finance his own race if he chooses, and of all of the candidates who have made contributions to their own campaigns Rudy Viet is the most likely to spend his of anyone on the ballot in the state. He also has the very experienced Jon Ratliff on his race, and he is a local to boot. While a reasonable person could come to understand his vote against the Governor’s tax cut I think it will draw some fire from conservatives this summer.
This quarter Spicer raised $24,000 this quarter into his candidate committee. He has banked donations from several notables including Ozzie Smith, and the Police Union several of those from a fundraiser from Senator David Gregory while his PAC raised $1,000. He has James Harris in his race.
Jake Vogel is the son of former Senator Carl Vogel, who, after serving as an Army Ranger, runs his family’s Coca-Cola distributorship. He is going to literally everything with a very strong ground game. His race is being run by Daniel Ellinger and he has Barklage and Axiom lined up on his campaign.
This is going to be a dogfight, and the dynamics won’t be fully in view until filing closes and Skelton is either in or out. As things stand now, Vogel has a slight advantage.
Rep. Rudy Veit
Cash on Hand: $309,663.60
Central Missouri Leadership PAC
Cash on Hand: Limited Activity
Candidate Loans: $250,000.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $309,663.60
Councilman Derrick Spicer
Cash on Hand: $178,681.04
Spicer for Senate PAC
Cash on Hand: $9,915.00
Candidate Loans: $100,000.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $188,596.04
Jake Vogel
Cash on Hand:$115,903.43
Lead the Way PAC
Cash on Hand: $943.26
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $116,846.69
Dr. Lisa Thomas
Cash on Hand: $250,000.00
Candidate Loans: $250,000.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $250,000.00
#4 SD 28 Senator Sandy Crawford is term-limited.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
PRIMARY: LEAN POLLITT
This race has climbed the competitiveness rankings as others have faded. Rep. Brad Pollitt enters with several advantages, including a larger fundraising war chest and the endorsement of outgoing Senator Sandy Crawford. He also has a strong base, with a credible path to roughly 43% of the vote across Pettis, Henry, and Benton counties.
When paired with Crawford’s influence in Dallas County and Polk County’s 28% share of the district, Pollitt begins as the favorite. Adding to his position, another opponent has entered the race, also from Bolivar, from the same part of the district as Alexander, potentially splitting that vote. Dr. Alexander has run for office before, though his previous bid in CD7 was relatively low-key. This time, he has invested $100,000 of his own money and benefits from having no voting record. Chuck Lentz, also from Bolivar, is a professor at Southwest Baptist University. As the race currently sits, Pollitt has the geographic advantage as well as two opponents from the same region helps to put him as the potential victor of this race.
Rep. Brad Pollitt
Cash on Hand: $152,298.12
Rocker P Brand PAC
Cash on Hand: $108,662.85
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $260,960.97
Dr. Sam Alexander
Cash on Hand: $ 189,308.50
Candidate Loans: $123,000.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $189,308.50
Chuck Lentz
Cash on Hand: n/a
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: n/a
#5 SD 4 Sen. Karla May is term-limited.
GENERAL: SAFE DEMOCRAT
PRIMARY: TOSS UP
This race shifted significantly after Chris Clark’s exit. Rep. Steve Butz remains a strong contender, an effective legislator and one of the party’s few consistently pro-business Democrats. He also posted notable fundraising this quarter, with support from Jeff Rainford and Rex Sinquefield.
Former Rep. Gina Mitten may have lost some ground without Clark in the field, but she shouldn’t be overlooked. Known as a hard worker, she remains a credible contender and could still benefit in a Democratic primary from strong support among women voters.
Rep. Steve Butz
Cash on Hand: $202,599.22
Butz STL PAC
Cash on Hand: $129,340.81
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $331,940.03
Gina Mitten
Cash on Hand: $89,205.59
Good Hands PAC
Cash on Hand: $500.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $89,705.59
#6 SD 14 Senator Brian Williams is term-limited.
GENERAL: SAFE DEMOCRAT
PRIMARY: TOSS UP
The race to replace one of the most talented Democrats in the state is shaping up to be a competitive one, much like it was eight years ago. It gained new momentum with the entry of former State Rep. John Bowman, who is viewed by some as an early frontrunner. Bowman has reported notable support from several unions, OnderLaw, and others, while his PAC has continued to draw backing from organized labor and recently picked up a $25,000 contribution from the Alliance for Economic Progress.
Rep. Raychel Proudie remains a major contender, with strong name ID from her House campaigns and an established fundraising network that gives her a head start in building a war chest.
The potential field is also deep. Joe Palm, who has White House experience on his résumé, has the profile to emerge as a top-tier contender. Shaunte Duncan remains in the mix, and some Democratic operatives believe she has a real path to winning, adding yet another competitive dimension to an already crowded race.
Joe Palm
Cash on Hand: $9,171.39
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $9,171.39
Shaunte Duncan
Cash on Hand: $13,513.19
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $13,513.19
Rep. Raychel Proudie
Cash on Hand: $42,824.70
PROUD PAC
Cash on Hand: $7,881.46
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $50,706.16
Former Rep. John Bowman
Cash on Hand: $23,359.71
Candidate loans: $20,000
Come Back PAC
Cash on Hand: $6,255.87
Total Cash on Hand: $29,615.58
Rep. Doug Clemens
Cash on Hand: $26,540.83
Cash on Hand: $26,540.83
#7 SD 16 Senator Justin Brown is term-limited.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
PRIMARY: TOSS UP
This race has moved up the ranks in part because the SD34 and SD22 have moved down, and because the candidates are running hard.
The race begins in Pulaski County, which has a larger population than its number of primary voters due to the presence of a military base. Two candidates are currently in the running, including Rep. Don Mayhew, who has a strong record of electoral success and may be able to self-fund part of his campaign. The question is, would he self-fund? Well as of the publishing of this tipsheet he hasn’t filed his Q3 report.
Rep. Bill Hardwick’s military record and name ID make him a top contender. He has a strong record of raising money, and if he puts together enough money to tell the folks in SD16 about his war record, he could be the one who benefits most if Rep. Knight forgoes a run. He has Sophie Shore on his team, and this quarter raised $21,000 from a wide array of business PACs in his candidate committee. His PAC brought in $37,000 led by gaming interests. The bright spot of his quarter was his top flight professional campaign kickoff.
Former Rep. Hannah Kelly from Wright County, which hosts approximately 14.3% of the vote and may have a head start on a Missouri Right to Life endorsement, raised $17,000 this quarter with checks from Will Scharf and Phil Melugin. She has met $75,000 cash on hand, and has Elijah Haahr working on her race.
Joe Steelman jumped into the race with a big kickoff event in Rolla, but as of now hasn’t officially filed.
As of now Rep. Jeff Knight hasn’t announced a run. He would be a tremendous candidate and an even better senator, but it looks ever more likely than ever that he won’t run. If he doesn’t, that throws Laclede County and the largest primary vote prize up for grabs.
Joseph Steelman
Cash on Hand: $59,413.49
Steel Resolve PAC
Cash on Hand: $44,317.24
Candidate Loans: $10,000.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $103,730.73
Rep. Bill Hardwick
Cash on Hand: $209,401.68
Missouri Enterprise Fund
Cash on Hand: $124,379.39
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $333,781.07
Rep. Don Mayhew
Cash on Hand: $43,496.36
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $43,496.36
Rep. Hannah Kelly
Cash on Hand: $74,469.35
Accountability PAC
Cash on Hand: $5,244.17
Ester PAC
Cash on Hand: $6,491.70
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $86,205.22
#8 SD 34 Senator Tony Luetkemeyer is term limited.
GENERAL: LIKELY REPUBLICAN
PRIMARY: LEAN WILLETT
Kansas City Councilman Nathan Willett continues to build off the momentum of his stellar campaign kickoff, which was attended by Governor Kehoe with a very impressive fundraising quarter. Carrying on from the strong numbers from his last quarter, Willett raked in $60k into his campaign account with most of the donations coming from $2400 checks from Herzog Employees. Willett’s PAC on the other hand initially only saw a donation of $20k at the end of the quarter, but 24 hour reports later on in February and March showed an additional $10k from Bickford Homes and a whopping $200k from Nick Conforti, a self employed realtor.
Rep. Sean Pouche is a big personality with a legacy name and will be a legitimate contender. In order to make that happen he will have to bump up his fundraising to keep pace.
Rep. Sean Pouche
Cash on Hand: $21,475.64
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $21,475.64
Kansas City Councilman Nathan Willett
Cash on Hand: $208,521.65
NextGen North PAC
Cash on Hand: $405,491.49
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $614,013.14
#9 SD 20 Senator Curtis Trent is seeking re-election.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
PRIMARY: LIKELY TRENT
This race continues to be the one that could be something or nothing. Attempting to outflank Senator Trent on the right is a hard challenge but Lori Rook is attempting to try. As stated on previous tipsheets, the big question is if the Trial Attorneys decide to throw money at the opponent of one of their biggest enemies. Senator Trent saw a strong quarter raising over $250k added to his committees in total, with donations ranging from the Realtors, the Sports Betting Industry, and the Corn Growers. Rook saw a negative quarter with expenses eating into her gains.
It’s hard to beat an incumbent senator, and I’m pessimistic that Rook can convince folks in southwest Missouri that Senator Trent is liberal. There is just nothing about Curtis Trent that anyone would believe is liberal. If Rook can’t sell that I’m not sure how she wins.
Sen. Curtis Trent
Cash on Hand: $274,657.37
417 PAC
Cash on Hand: $500,944.51
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $775,601.88
Lori Rook
Cash on Hand: $115,730.21
Candidate loans: $100,000
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $115,730.21
#10 SD 32 Senator Jill Carter is seeking re-election
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
PRIMARY: LIKELY CARTER
Senator Jill Carter is facing a primary challenge from Dr. Ellen Nichols, the wife of former State Senator Bill White. Carter has emerged as one of the Senate’s fast-rising stars and has shown a strong ability to stay aligned with the pulse of the average Missouri voter. She reported a $70,000 quarter, with support from fellow senators as well as notable contributions from Charter Communications, various healthcare PACs, and MoCann Trade.
Dr. Nichols, a neurosurgeon, has entered the race aggressively, putting $250,000 of her own money into the campaign along with a $20,000 contribution from the Freeman Physicians Group PAC. Carter is widely regarded as one of the hardest-working members of the Senate, and that intensity is unlikely to slow on the campaign trail.
Senator Carter proved that it’s very unlikely but certainly possible to knock off an incumbent senator. It’s going to be a tough sell for Dr. Nichols to not appear as seeking revenge for four years ago, but if she can do that then she will be set up well as a self funder.
#11 SD 8 Senator Mike Cierpiot is term-limited.
GENERAL: (With Patterson) LEAN REPUBLICAN (Without Patterson) LEAN DEMOCRAT PRIMARY: LIKELY PATTERSON
This will be the second most competitive race in the fall, but it will largely be shaped in August. Rep. Keri Ingle is a tremendous senate recruit, who is doing everything that can be done to place her in a dogfight this fall.
That brings us to the republicans. You have the future of the Missouri Republican Party Jon Patterson crushing it on fundraising, having his team selected and ready to go. And he will need all of it in his primary. It seems quite likely that the Jackson County Executive race will pull a lot of the attention making the number of voters in the SD8 primary smaller and giving former Rep. Dan Stacy a shot to pull off an upset.
If Patterson focuses on his primary and spends some money to make sure he takes care of business then he would go into the general election as the favorite against Ingle.
However, if Stacy pulls off an upset, that is certainly possible then Ingle is the favorite in the fall. The other factor here is Trump. There is a world where he gets so underwater in SD8 that he sinks the republican. However, I’ve been hearing the prediction that Trump will tank republicans in the suburbs for 10 years now, and not once has there been any evidence of that.
Rep. Keri Ingle
Cash on Hand: $200,450.23
KERI PAC
Cash on Hand: $52,402.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $252,852.23
Former Rep. Dan Stacy
Cash on Hand: $6,592.15
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $6,592.15
House Speaker Jon Patterson
Cash on Hand: $663,297.66
Missouri Alliance PAC
Cash on Hand: $2,103,165.59
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $2,766,463.25
#12 SD 22 Sen. Mary Elizabeth Coleman is not seeking re-election.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
PRIMARY: LIKELY AVERY
This race has fallen significantly since the previous tipsheet. The best campaign of 2025 was former Rep. Jim Avery putting on a clinic of how to use relationship building and exhibiting a willingness to self fund to clear his primary in an age where everyone has a primary. It’s been flawless and should be studied by everyone who wants to run for state senate.
As things stand today with Rep. Renee Reuter leaving the race to run for an open judgeship, Avery is unopposed. If Avery maintains his relationship building efforts from last year he will be the senator that everything runs though by spring break.
Fmr. Rep. Jim Avery
Cash on Hand: $344,765.54
Candidate Loans: $200,050.00
Make JeffCo Great Again PAC
Cash on Hand: $21,300.15
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $366,065.69
#13 SD 30 Senator Lincoln Hough is term-limited.
GENERAL: TOSS UP
This race will be the #1 election in the fall and according to campaign sources, Rep. Melanie Stinnett is looking like she will stave off a primary against Springfield Businessman Brian Gelner. I will say that Rep. Stinnett has been running full throttle for the last nine months, and who knows if she would have kept up this pace and intensity without the possibility of a Gelner challenge?
While the primary may not be happening, you can bet the general election will be the one to watch. Rep. Stinnett is the best republican candidate to hold the seat, but Rep. Betsy Fogle is the best democrat recruit of the cycle, and the best chance for the democrats to pick up an eleventh senator.
Rep. Melanie Stinnett
Cash on Hand: $407,190.18
Candidate Loans: $250,000
Heart of SGF PAC
Cash on Hand: $144,967.15
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $522,157.33
Rep. Betsy Fogle
Cash on Hand: $300,874.29
Forward PAC
Cash on Hand: $101,541.57
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $402,415.86
#14 SD 24 Senator Tracy McCreery is seeking re-election.
GENERAL: SAFE DEMOCRAT
Sen. Tracy McCreery
Senator McCreery has long been regarded as a talented legislator and one who has managed to work across party lines on multiple occasions. The real question now is, when will she be seen on our statewide ballots?
Cash on Hand: $387,134.79
Serve Missouri
Cash on Hand: $238,863.10
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $625,997.89
#15 SD 2 Senator Nick Schroer is seeking re-election.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Sen. Nick Schroer
The new leader of the Freedom Caucus in the Senate, has become the leading voice among the more conservative members of the Senate Senator Schroer with him being seen as a likely candidate for Senate Majority leader on the conservative side of the chamber.
Cash on Hand: $105,229.02
1776 PAC
Cash on Hand: $361,498.72
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $466,727.74
#16 SD 12 Senator Rusty Black is seeking re-election.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Sen. Rusty Black
Senator Black is a safe re-elect and anyone daring to challenge him is likely to waste money and time going against the Senator from the GREAT Northwest.
Cash on Hand: $214,098.05
Great Northwest PAC
Cash on Hand: $229,209.10
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $443,307.15
#17 SD 26 Senator Ben Brown is seeking re-election.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Sen. Ben Brown
Senator Ben Brown has seen a good quarter for a safe re-elect candidate with no primary, managing to raise close to $100k. Brown has been tipped as a possible candidate in the race for floor leader in the near future and has quickly become a talented legislator.
Cash on Hand: $150,195.95
BB Freedom Fund
Cash on Hand: $142,181.15
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $292,377.10
Jake Kroesen is a Jackson County native and a graduate of the University of Central Missouri. He holds a B.S. in Political Science.
