#1 SD21 R+26.44% Senator Hoskins is term-limited.
PRIMARY: LEAN GREGORY
This will be the biggest race in the state. You have a race with a rural Missourian vs. a suburban, a farmer vs. a pastor, and two men who couldn’t be more personally different.
Rep. Gregory starts off as the favorite as he has a more than 3 to 1 cash advantage, and a great pedigree for that district. Well, a great pedigree for that district until it starts having cul de sacs, then the district advantage switches to Rep. Richey.
The district breaks down with 37.8% of the vote in Clay County 51% in rural Missourah, and Ray County that has some of both at 12.3%.
While Rep. Gregory probably has the better back story, and will have the most money, Rep. Richey is a stellar politician, and will likely have some outside groups come in to get him enough money to run a full campaign and his base is going easier to door knock simply because they live on top of each other.
Bottom line: This one will be close to the end, the outside factor could be if Rep. Gregory could raise enough money to buy the race, and that is possible. Imagine being MU if he loses…The flagship council, should just lower the flag.
Rep. Kurtis Gregory
Total Raised this Cycle: $169,523
Cash on Hand: $ 238,762
The Wonderdog PAC
Cash on Hand: $161,077
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $399,839
\Rep. Doug Richey
Total Raised this Cycle: $102,713
Cash on Hand: $114,621
Cultivating Freedom PAC
Cash on Hand: $25,942
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $140,563
#2 SD23 R+6.08% Senator Eigel is term-limited.
PRIMARY: LEAN CHRISTOFANELLI GENERAL: LIKELY REPUBLICAN
Big race in eastern St. Charles County this summer to replace gubernatorial candidate Bill Eigel. With the huge cash on hand lead Christofanelli starts out as the clear favorite.
Christofanelli goes back to the early days of helping Eigel’s runs, hitting a lot of doors for his O.G. operation. In the House he has built a lengthy conservative resume being the juice to pass the largest education reform bill in state history. You have to believe that $450k grows quickly after session for someone one a short list of #moleg Republicans who could be elected Governor one day.
Rep. Schnelting has had the same conversion to being anti-tort reform that many House members have when they have trouble fundraising for Senate. He has a good group of volunteers, and having over $100,000 in the bank assures that he will be a legitimate contender in the race. He has already started the dark tactics in the race assuring it will be an expensive and nasty one this summer.
Rich Chrismer is a longtime St. Charles County elected official. His name ID alone means that he will grab at least 10% of the vote. He will have to catch some breaks to win, but in the end he may swing the race to one of the other two.
Bottom line: There is an amount of money a candidate can raise that makes them tough to beat. I suspect Phil is going to try and find out what that number is.
Rep. Phil Christofanelli
Total Raised this Cycle: $157,043
Cash on Hand: $255,468
Gladius PAC
Cash on Hand: $198,601
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $454,069
Rep. Adam Schnelting
Total Raised this Cycle: $96,962
Cash on Hand: $119,621
Protect our Kids PAC
Cash on Hand: $47,047
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $166,668
Former County Elections Official: Rich Chrismer
Total Raised this Cycle: $17,110
Cash on Hand: $11,964
#3 SD33 R+57.16% Senator Eslinger is seeking re-election.
PRIMARY: TOSS UP
Senator Eslinger leaving this summer to run DESE didn’t change some of the dynamics of this race as much as you might think. Rep. Brad Hudson has already announced he would be challenging her in the new district. When she stepped out of the race she insisted on Rep. Travis Smith to step in.
The new 33rd is about 45% Branson and Stone County which you think would be kind to Hudson. From around Forsyth to the east which makes up about 55% of the district would be logical Travis Smith country.
Hudson is a pastor and has been working religious circles throughout the district. He has done a good job fundraising, and you might expect him to broaden his views on non social issues as he runs for Senate like his strategic vote on 340b.
Rep. Smith has hit the ground hard on fundraising and will have a big quarter to report in June. He has an incredible amount of contacts in the West Plains through Gainesville area, and his new state rep. district includes the eastern part of Taney County.
Bottom line: Rep. Smith can play to his eastern side of the district advantages and try to buy some name ID in the Branson market, but he is going to have to raise the money to do it. This will be a race where in August you will be able to tell the direction of the Senate from how this race turns out.
Rep. Travis Smith
Total Raised this Cycle: $5,250
Cash on Hand: $237
Southern Missouri Conservatives PAC
Cash on Hand: $2,513
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $2,750
Rep. Brad Hudson
Total Raised this Cycle: $102,176
Cash on Hand: $106,117
Brad PAC
Cash on Hand: $3,900
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $110,017
#4 SD3 R+35.8% Senator Gannon is not seeking re-election.
PRIMARY: LEAN HENDERSON
This race breaks down as JeffCO vs. the saints of St. Francois and Ste. Genevieve. Rep. Courtway is from JeffCo that makes up 31.5% of the new district, while Mike Henderson is from north St. Francois, which along with Ste. Genevieve makes up 35.5% of the district with the other 31.9% of the district. That 31.9% of the district is probably where the race gets decided.
You initially would think that Rep. Henderson would have a more natural claim to the votes in Crawford and Washington Counties, and there could be an increased turnout from the CD3 race. However, you prolly need to poll that to make sure.
Rep. Courtway has some big walleted special interests that could come in for her and she may need it as there will be a lot of Farmington donors who are likely to step up for the hometown man.
Bottom line: Henderson starts off with an advantage because he would have a better run in Washington and Crawford Counties. However, with both candidates hovering around $100,000 right now this is a race several groups could influence.
Rep. Mike Henderson
Total Raised this Cycle: $344,801
Cash on Hand: $92,632
Leadbelt PAC
Cash on Hand: $17,288
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $109,920
Rep. Cyndi Buchheit-Courtway
Total Raised this Cycle: $48,309
Cash on Hand: $57,715
Missouri Matters PAC
Cash on Hand: $34,642
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $92,357
#5 SD15 R+7.72% Senator Koenig is term limited.
PRIMARY: LEAN GREGORY GENERAL: LEAN REPUBLICAN
The West County St. Louis race to replace Senator Koenig is at a simmer waiting for the summer. All three are out knocking doors and all three can give you a pitch as to why they should win. With Bowling he can claim a base in Wildwood, but local government can earn you some enemies too. He has some business connections that he has worked to put together over $100,000 so far. However, that $100,000 includes a loan to himself, and history has shown those loans rarely get spent.
County Councilman Harder starts off with some solid name ID in the state’s most expensive media market and probably does have the highest floor in the race. His fundraising has never had to be that aggressive on the county council, and it hasn’t picked up thus far.
Former Rep. Gregory is a top tier political talent that has put together over $150k thus far and is out on the doors. You would think he would be behind in name ID to the two local electeds, but that is not the case thus far.
The winner will have a legitimate race on their hands with former Drury executive Joe Pereles. He is perhaps the best recruit of either party this cycle. If abortion is on the November ballot Pereles will make this race a toss up.
Bottom line: Gregory could run away with this early, but needs more money to make that happen. If he doesn’t the question will be which one of his opponents can afford to attack him? Until there is an answer he is the front runner.
Former Rep. David Gregory
Total Raised this Cycle: $226,672
Cash on Hand: $130,364
Show Me Growth PAC
Cash on Hand: $29,251
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $159,615
St. Louis County Councilman Mark Harder
Total Raised this Cycle: $69,339
Cash on Hand: $55,226
St. Louis Conservative Leadership PAC
Cash on Hand: $N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $55,226
Wildwood Mayor Jim Bowlin
Total Raised this Cycle: $190,650
Cash on Hand: $121,647
Conservatives for Accountability
Cash on Hand: $N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $121,647
Joe Pereles
Total Raised this Cycle: $467,261
Cash on Hand: $396,388
Fearless PAC
Cash on Hand:$26,583
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $422,971
#6 SD27 R+48.44% Senator Rehder is running for Lt. Governor.
PRIMARY: LEAN BURGER
The new SD27 brings the district farther to the west, and incumbent Senator Holly Rehder is running for Lt. Governor. The race to replace her is Rep. Jamie Burger, Rep. Chris Dinkins, and political newcomer Jacob Turner. While the district swings west picking up Iron and Reynolds County it’s still around 85% Cape centered.
Rep. Burger was a late entrant to the race, but has hit the ground running. Lining up a good segment of the local Cape Girardeau Republicans behind him. He has been dominant on the fundraising front as well, by May 8th being near $270,000.
Rep. Dinkins has an issue being from the 15% of the district that is not Cape centered. She has amassed a good amount of money topping $215k However, $100k of that is a loan. She can fit the district well, and has the issue of Rep. Burger formerly being elected to the Scott County Commission as a Democrat. The question will be does she have enough money to get herself known and attack Burger?
Turner is a first responder and clearly a hustler on the fundraising front. He is a big Eigel guy and wants to sniff contention to try and pick up some trial attorney money. He will poll a sizable number of votes, but probably needs to catch a lot of breaks to win.
Bottom line: Burger is gonna hit $400,000 Dinkins is going to have to spend her current money to define herself then hit him. If she gets the money she might have a path. Until that money arrives it leans to Burger.
Rep. Jamie Burger
Cash on Hand: $135,409
Bootheel Values PAC
Cash on Hand: $86,614
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $222,023
Rep. Chris Dinkins
Cash on Hand: $184,095
Red Hawk PAC
Cash on Hand: $35,638
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $219733
Jacob Turner
Cash on Hand: $70,891
Faith and Family PAC
Cash on Hand: $39,167
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $110,058
#7 SD7 D+17.74% Senator Razer has taken an appointment.
PRIMARY: TOSS UP
There seemed to be a seamless transition being put in place for Pat Contreras, a great guy, and former State Treasurer candidate to replace Senator Razer after his PSC appointment. However, there was an uproar from women in Kansas City to not see a coronation, and Rep. Lewis is in the race.
Bottom line: Women have an advantage over men in Democratic primaries, maybe more than usual this year. Pat is going to have to raise a great deal of money and run a stellar campaign to offset that this summer.
Pat Contreras
Total Raised this Cycle: $
Cash on Hand: $n/a
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $
Patty Lewis
Total Raised this Cycle: $65,892
Cash on Hand: $47,598
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $47,598
#8 SD31 R+29.09% Senator Brattin is seeking re-election.
PRIMARY: LEAN BRATTIN
This is potentially the most interesting race of the summer, unless it isn’t. Senator Brattin did well for himself when the anti-landfill deal was worked out, and he is the incumbent. When he first ran for Senate he became a supporter of the trial bar, and they became a big supporter of his helping him win by a wide margin in ‘20.
Now he faces a twin problem in his new district. It’s still anchored by Cass County with 62% of the vote, but he will have to split that with incumbent State Rep. Mike Haffner. Then from Johnson County with 27% of the vote is Dan Houx with a big fundraising lead.
Haffner is an air force veteran with a strong following and it was actually his bill that passed on the landfill deal. He is a hard charger on the campaign trail with a great story to tell.
Rep. Houx’s family literally founded Warrensburg and he will do very well in Johnson County, and has the money to go in and spend heavily in Cass County.
Bottom line: Brattin took 52% in Cass County last cycle in an open seat primary. If Haffner takes the same amount of votes Bondon did in ‘20 then it’s a real race. If he can’t he could be a spoiler. However, Brattin is the incumbent and now with legislation to tout so it leans his way until the attacks start flying.
Senator Rick Brattin
Total Raised this Cycle: $340,083
Cash on Hand: $54,254
True Patriot PAC
Cash on Hand: $20,157
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $74,411
Rep. Mike Haffner
Total Raised this Cycle: $41,625
Cash on Hand: $112,215
CLCP PAC
Cash on Hand: $37,343
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $149,558
Rep. Dan Houx
Total Raised this Cycle: $455,941
Cash on Hand: $119,181
H-PAC
Cash on Hand: $221,590
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $340,771
#9 SD13 D+63.2% Senator Mosley is seeking re-election.
PRIMARY: LEAN MOSLEY
This primary will be interesting as it was late developing. Senator Mosley won a hard fought race four years ago, and this time will be even better funded. She has a long time St. Louis political machine behind her, and remember very few incumbents lose.
Rep. Nickson-Clark is a fresh face, who is a cancer survivor and has proven to be highly energetic. She is touting her ability to knock the district this summer.
Bottom line: Rep. Nickson-Clark has a shot, but will need money to do it, and it’s hard to see where that comes from. However, if it comes that changes things.
Senator Mosley
Total Raised this Cycle: $148,658
Cash on Hand: $79,573
PAC
Cash on Hand: $n/a
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $79,573
Rep. Chantelle Nickson-Clark
Total Raised this Cycle: $20,933
Cash on Hand: $96.45
Chantelle PAC
Cash on Hand: $n/a
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $96.45
#10 SD29 R+54.04% Senator Moon is seeking re-election.
PRIMARY: LIKELY MOON
Senator Moon is seeking re-election, but in a significantly new district including the new population center of the district in Christian County. He is being challenged by Ozark businesswoman Susan Haralson.
Moon will be very tough to beat. He has a history of receiving big contributions from trial attorneys, and has built a solid reputation as a conservative. He will have to get acquainted with some new constituents in Christian County, but he has been a proven vote getter since his first race mostly because he is a nice guy.
Haralson has a local base there in the Springfield suburbs, but the question will be if the power brokers who encouraged her to make the race show up with the money to fund the race.
Bottom line: It’s almost unheard of to beat an incumbent in a primary without getting to the incumbent’s extreme, and this is Mike Moon.
Senator Moon
Total Raised this Cycle: $324,963
Cash on Hand: $57,009
Life and Liberty MO PAC
Cash on Hand: $15,042
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $72,051
Susan Haralson
Total Raised this Cycle: $N/A
Cash on Hand: $N/A
Present Day Conservatives
Cash on Hand: $N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $N/A
#11 SD11 R+4.06% Senator Rizzo is term limited.
PRIMARY: LEAN McMULLEN GENERAL: TOSS-UP
Harry Truman’s hometown will host two top tier Senate races in ‘24. The first is a primary on the Republican side with freshman State Rep. Aaron McMullen making the jump to the Senate race and facing off against two candidates who have previously ran for state Senate in Joe Nicola and David Martin.
McMullen is a veteran who ran a full tough race to win his House seat in ‘22. Nicola is a pastor who ran a spirited race in SD8 in ‘22. He had a strong showing against an incumbent last cycle, but in the 8th, not the 11th. Nicola is a serious threat in this race.
David Martin is a conservative candidate who has ran before. I tend to think he picks the pocket of Nicola more than McMullen.
The winner will face off against Rep. Robbie Sauls. Look it’s obvious that he hasn’t had the best last month of session, but it’s also true that prior to that he has built a solid reputation that should guarantee he will be well funded, and if he knocks his doors this race will be a toss up.
Bottom line: McMullen will have to spend all this money in the primary, which with that cash advantage he should win that primary. After that, this will be the top Senate race in the fall, with which ballot the abortion IP lands on maybe making the difference.
Rep. Aaron McMullen
Total Raised this Cycle: $132,472
Cash on Hand: $66,931
Independence PAC
Cash on Hand: $85,101
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $152,032
Joe Nicola
Total Raised this Cycle: $59,334
Cash on Hand: $42,198
Truth and Light
Cash on Hand: $N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND:$42,198
David Martin
Total Raised this Cycle: $3,643
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $222
Rep. Robbie Sauls
Total Raised this Cycle: $384,944
Cash on Hand: $158,514
Independence Leadership PAC
Cash on Hand: $185,701
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $
#12 SD9 D+62.8% Senator Washington is seeking re-election.
PRIMARY: LEAN WASHINGTON GENERAL: SAFE DEMOCRAT
Senator Washington was looking to cruise to re-election then former Rep. and then Kansas City City Councilman Brandon Ellington stepped up to attempt a return to Jeff City.
You never go wrong by betting on an incumbent senator to return to the Senate, and Senator Washington starts the summer as the clear favorite, however, she will have to raise money, rely on Freedom Inc., and take him seriously because Brandon can get votes.
Bottom line: Incumbent Senators don’t often lose re-election.
Senator Barb Washington
Total Raised this Cycle: $76,968 (OCT)
Cash on Hand: $77,020 (OCT)
Eastside Forward PAC
Cash on Hand: $70,446
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $147,466
Former Rep. Brandon Ellington
Total Raised this Cycle: $N/A
Cash on Hand: $N/A
#13 SD17 D+7.74% Senator Arthur is term-limited.
LEAN DEMOCRAT
This race was originally going to be Maggie vs. Clay County Auditor Victor Hurlbert. However, he dropped out of the race last summer and pretty well endorsed her. Then it looked like Hurlbert was back in the race when proven vote getter Clay County Commissioner Jerry Nolte jumped into the race.
Neurrenbern has been doing everything possible to lock this down, and is still the favorite in a Democratic trending district, but Jerry Nolte knows how to get votes, and after the primary this race will vault to #2 on the list.
Bottom line: This went from an easy win for the Democrats, to a race that they should still win but they will have to keep an eye on until election day. Jerry Nolte ain’t one to sleep on.
Rep. Maggie Nurrenbern
Total Raised this Cycle: $264,679
Cash on Hand: $297,159
Northland Forward
Cash on Hand: $149,601
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $446,760
Clay County Presiding Commissioner Jerry Nolte
Total Raised this Cycle: $7,950
Cash on Hand: $20,930
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $20,930
#14 SD19 D+13.38% Senator Rowden is term-limited.
SAFE DEMOCRAT
It probably really didn’t matter who if anyone filed on the Republican line, once Webber cleared the Democratic primary field he was heading to the Senate, and he will be a tremendous senator.
Former Rep. Stephen Webber
Total Raised this Cycle: $504,419
Cash on Hand: $368,934
Homefront PAC
Cash on Hand: $395,337
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $764,271
#15 SD1 D+8.08% Senator Beck is seeking re-election.
LIKELY DEMOCRAT
Senator Beck has done an incredible job of solidifying the district behind him. Those gray haired white guys still seem to be able to get a few votes.
Senator Doug Beck
Total Raised this Cycle: $328,693
Cash on Hand: $398,198
DougPac
Cash on Hand: $476,488
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $874,686
#16 SD5 D+ 80.86% Senator Roberts is seeking re-election.
SAFE DEMOCRAT
If you want to see the difference between twitter and real life look at all the big tweeting that was done about the opponent Senator Roberts was gonna have…only to be unopposed in real life.
Senator Steven Roberts
Total Raised this Cycle: $105,952
Cash on Hand: $1,673
STL Democratic Coalition PAC
Cash on Hand: $35,297
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $36,970
#17 SD25 R+54.04% Senator Bean is seeking re-election.
SAFE REPUBLICAN
Senator Bean earns this cycle’s designation as the safest senator on the ballot.
Senator Jason Bean
Total Raised this Cycle: $327,035
Cash on Hand: $104,628
Conservative Leadership for Southeast Missouri
Cash on Hand: $
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $104,628
Scott Faughn is the publisher of The Missouri Times, owner of the Clayton Times in Clayton; SEMO Times in Poplar Bluff; and host of the only statewide political television show, This Week in Missouri Politics.
