April 2022 State Senate Tipsheet

STATE SENATE
Now that the maps are out and filing has closed we’re out with our state senate tip sheet.
Here is today’s state of play:
Rowden Republicans: 16
Senate Democrats: 10
Eigel Republicans: 7
Senator Wieland: 1

Of the 17 coming back the senate looks like:
Senate Democrats: 7 (including one running for Congress)
Rowden Republicans: 5
Eigel Republicans: 5 (including two running for Congress)

Then add in the safe seats with no real opposition and you have.
Rowden Republicans: 10 (Bernskoetter, O’Laughlin, Crawford, White, and Luetkemeyer)
Senate Democrats: 9 (May and Williams)
Eigel Republicans: 5

Then add in the three incumbents who have had candidates recruited against them and you have:
Rowden Republicans: 13 (Hough, Cierpiot, and Brown)
Senate Democrats: 9
Eigel Republicans: 5

Then there are 7 open seats. 6 highly likely to be republican and 1 highly likely to be democrat. Looking at the 6 open seats as of now we predict:

2023 Prediction:
Rowden Republicans: 17
Senate Democrats: 10
Eigel Republicans: 7

We have ranked the top ten races by competitiveness below.

#1 SD 2 Senator Onder is term-limited. PRIMARY: TOSS-UP
This is the top race, it’s a big time showdown between two legislators who have taken different paths to this primary since the day they were elected.
Rep. Schorer has from the beginning cast himself with the right wing in every possible rhetorical fashion. It has paid off with the endorsement of Senator Onder and the advantage in grassroots folks in a district that is full of subdivisions where door knocking is possible. He mixed in a lot of bills designed to generate headlines, and twitter likes, but also helped with the GM bill to help keep his constituents employed.
However, this might be the cycle where the rhetoric that has helped him consolidate that support might have some push back. He would be the likely leader of the conservative caucus if he wins, and while that will definitely help him it could also make him a target. However, Rep. Schroer has a card to play if he is targeted that others don’t, Rick Pogue. Mr. Pogue is already $200,000 into the race, and I understand could go deeper if he wants.
Rep. Wiemann is the number two man in house leadership and has the support of the business community. He has carried several very large pieces of complicated legislation during his time in the house, and has a large group of traditional republican support in St. Charles County.
He has deeper roots in the county and has been raising more in district donations. Rep. Wiemann will run as a proven conservaitve and if he has the money to sell that message it will be a close race.
Redistricting was kind to Rep. Schroer, as it kept his home in the district, but no one cared about his residency a year ago and likely wouldn’t now. While it was also helpful to Rep. Wiemann, if he could have picked an area to lose it likely would have been Wentzville.
As long as the business community has his back the way they are claiming they plan to then this will be the most expensive and toughest fought races of the cycle.

House Speaker Pro Tem Rep. John Wiemann
Contributions this cycle: $83,344
Cash on hand: $146,432
JW Leadership Fund PAC
Cash on hand: $86,881
Total cash on hand for the race: $233,313
Rep. Nick Schroer
Contributions this cycle: $32,781
Cash on hand: $122,149
1776 PAC
Cash on hand: $193,002
Total cash on hand for the race: $315,151

#2 SD 22 Senator Paul Wieland is term-limited. PRIMARY: TOSS-UP
Now that the race is set it comes in as number two and probably stays there. Reps. Coleman, Shaul, and Roden along with former Rep. Roorda is a unique four way to say the least.
Coleman raised the most money of the quarter with $21,000 out-pacing Roorda with $14,000, and Shaul with $5,000 while Roden didn’t report raising any money. Also keep in mind they raised this with the prospect of the sitting speaker entering the race. Now when you count what Roorda put into the race himself he is leading the cash on hand race by about $35,000 over Coleman, and $85,000 over Shaul.
I saw a preliminary poll showing that Roorda was in the lead, which I would have no problem believing as it’s probably name ID more than anything. The question for Roorda is how much will republican primary voters hold the fact he has been a democrat against him. He has already invested heavily in his race, and I understand that he is willing to go much further as the race unfolds. If he just gets 75% of the union members currently holding a union card to vote for him, then he can win a four way with $250,000.
Coleman will do well on the doors, and has a track record of hitting them. She has some claim to some large donors, it will be interesting to see if and when they enter the race for her. This will be a really interesting case study to see if being supported by the 100 PAC turns into real money, or on the other side if being supported by the 100 PAC just makes people give real money against you.
Shaul is in the race for some of those traditional republican voters. Think about your folks who were democrats but changed their party allegiance 20 years ago, not with Trump 8 years ago. He has his supporters in the capitol lobbying corps, but like with everyone in a four way race will have to show he can win before he gets those dollars.
Roden is gonna run as the public safety guy, but that vote will at least be split with Roorda. His wife is also running for county office, but they are both being dogged by residency issues because they have been paying property taxes in Cole County instead of JeffCo. Roden will have to raise some money to be more than someone who siphons votes from Shaul in his house district, and Roorda in the rest of the county.
To me the questions are: Can Coleman come out of session and establish herself as the front runner so that money from all corners comes to her? Will JeffCo voters forgive Roorda for being a democrat too long? Can Shaul get someone to invest in his campaign in big enough dollars to attract more money and get to $400,000? Will Roden raise money and become a top tier factor in the race to take some of Shaul’s votes, or just siphon off Roorda votes?

Rep. Mary Elizabeth Coleman
Contributions this cycle: $105,390
Cash on hand: $81,989
Conservative Solutions for Missouri PAC
Cash on hand: $15,315
Total cash on hand for the race: $97,304
Rep. Dan Shaul
Contributions this cycle: $16,315
Cash on hand: $55,841
JeffCo Vision PAC
Cash on hand: $76,192
Total cash on hand for the race: $132,033
Former State Representative Jeff Roorda
Contributions this cycle: $14,157.
Cash on hand: $139,724
Rep. Shane Roden
Contributions this cycle: $3,171
Cash on hand: $3,475

#3 SD 26 Senator Dave Schatz is term-limited. PRIMARY: TOSS-UP
The 26th has become a flash point for the varying wings of the republican party in a new district that brings in more Missourah and less Missouri.
Ben Brown is a St. Louis businessman who was a vocal opponent of mask orders in St. Louis. In the old district with two Franklin County opponents his St. Louis County vote could have won the race. However, the new district is only 4% St. Louis where Warren, Osage, and Gasconade Counties make up nearly 40% of the district. He will be a grassroots focused candidate similar to Senator Koenig. While the geography didn’t do him any favors having two primary opponents who are competing for similar voters certainly did.
Brown has the support of the conservative caucus in the race, and that could add up to a good deal of money and a win as it did for Senators Moon and Brattin last year. However, I suspect the new RightPath PAC will be spending heavily in the district as well.
One of the likely beneficiaries of the new PAC is likely Bob Jones, a Franklin County businessman and close friend of Gregg Holbrock. He has taken to the trail in a big way zooming into the fundraising lead. He is legitimately well known in civic circles in Washington, and a top contender.
The last candidate in was Rep. Nate Tate. He is the only one in the race that has won elections, and if he can poll high enough he could put together some fundraising from labor groups who are also well populated in Franklin and Warren Counties.
If these three candidates all cannibalize Franklin County the race will be won in the other counties, and in those counties, money will be key.

Ben Brown
Contributions this cycle: $20,317
Cash on hand: $94,470
BB Freedom Fund PAC
Cash on Hand: $0
Total cash on hand for the race: $94,470
Bob Jones
Contributions this cycle: $151,163
Cash on hand: $135,022
Conservative Leadership for Missouri
Cash on hand: $23,400
Total cash on hand for the race: $158,422
Rep. Nate Tate
Contributions this cycle: $7,800
Cash on hand: $12,213

#4 SD 10 Senator Jeannie Riddle is retiring. PRIMARY: TOSS-UP
This race just gets more interesting all the time. The district the judges drew was almost tailor made for Rep. Pietzman to run in, and at the end of filing he did. He hails from Lincoln County which will make up 40% of the new district. The 10th also has Pike County to add to Lincoln County’s natural geography advantage of around 48%. Pietzman has geography and can run on a record of very conservative voting.
His opponent from the start was going to be one of the party’s rising stars Rep. Travis Fitzwater from Callaway County. Callaway makes up a fourth of the district where he is very popular, and should do well. He should also be the fundraising leader of the race, and he will need it to go pick off votes in Wentzville and Troy.
Montgomery County’s favorite son also jumped into the race in Jeff Porter. Montgomery County is around 8% of the district so he will have to try and pull votes from Lincoln County and Wentzville as well. He is going to have strong support from the public school community, and seems willing to put some of his money into the race. He has the ability to write himself a check. However, Porter could also explore some labor money.
Speaking of Wentzville, former Rep. Bryan Spencer has been running hard for this seat for a while. He loaned himself $100,000 but will have to pick up the fundraising pace.
The fifth candidate didn’t raise any money, Judge Mike Carter of Wentzville loaned himself half a million to start the campaign. Now who knows if he will spend it, but he will add some spice to the race for sure.
He will need all half a million to compete in a district that stretches two media markets. A third is in the Jeff City market and two-thirds is in the very expensive St. Louis media market. I think that gives Rep. Fitzwater his playbook. Run up a big number in Callaway County, and spend big to get a share of the St. Louis media market votes.
I think this race will also be one of the top targets for your Right Path supporters. The bottom line is that if you are from Lincoln, Callaway or Montgomery, you identify with your county and voters tend to be more parochial. If you live in Wentzville, there is a pretty good chance you are from somewhere else and just happened to move there. Point being, Wentzville voters are definitely up for grabs with the right candidate and right message.

Rep. Randy Pietzman
Contributions this cycle: $0
Cash on hand: $1,666
Rep. Travis Fitzwater
Contributions this cycle: $13,059
Cash on hand: $103,595
Kingdom Leadership PAC
Cash on hand: $2,341
Total cash on hand for the race: $105,936
Former Rep. Bryan Spencer
Contributions this cycle: $5,800
Cash on hand: $148,772
Rep. Jeff Porter
Contributions this cycle: $2,150
Cash on hand: $24,289
MOWAR
Cash on hand: $7,621
Total cash on hand for the race: $31,910
Judge Mike Carter
Contributions this cycle: $n/a
Cash on hand: $500,000

#5 SD 20 Senator Eric Burlson is running for congress. PRIMARY: TOSS-UP
This will be a big time primary. Rep. Trent has been planning for a senate run for a couple years, and has the ground game already built and the activists already committed. The question will come down to money. Now he doesn’t need as much money as Gelner, but he will have to be at least competitive with him.
Gelner burst on the scene with a monster quarter last year, and followed it up with another solid quarter this year. He is a businessman with clearly a great rolodex that he put to use. He is in the beer business, not the king of beers, but beer business, and clearly has the ability to put on a top tier race.
It’s still too early to tell, but I think Rep. Trent starts off with the advantage. He has ran before, and has a long relationship with area activists that he is using. The key will be the money for him. For Gelner it will be how well he takes to campaigning and can he keep raising the money.
The district changed a lot as Christian and Greene grew too much to say together. Barton and Dade make up 15% of the district and won’t see as much attention. Greene County will be the major part of the district, but Webster County makes up nearly a fourth of the district and is pretty fired up right now.

Rep. Curtis Trent
Contributions this cycle: $23,019
Cash on hand: $202,312
417 PAC
Cash on hand: $9,690
Total cash on hand for the race: $212,002
Brian Gelner
Contributions this cycle: $30,259
Cash on hand: $288,820
Missouri Common Sense PAC
Cash on hand: $87,476
Total cash on hand for the race: $376,296

#6 SD 12 Senator Dan Hegeman i1s retiring. PRIMARY: TOSS UP
This will be a big time race, and really for the first time I can remember there will be a real primary in the GREAT northwest. The district was stretched east to bring in Livingston County and Rep. Rusty Black. He has all the ag credentials and has Axiom behind him. I’ve said for months that the candidate that Axiom chooses here will have a huge advantage. SD 12 is patient zero when it comes to Jeff Roe’s national conglomerate. Rep. Black is their man and they’ll work aggressively to make sure he is their state senator. There’s 19 counties in this district, meaning you can’t possibly start from scratch to get to know people. Rep. Black is a former Ag teacher and he knows the FFA advisor past and present in every town of more than 300 people in Northwest Missouri. That’s a good grassroots network and the right type of people that you’ll want behind you when you’re in hand-to-hand combat in a senate district that’s as large as some European countries.
I have to assume that there will be a fundraising push for him once session ends, and just based on the history of the district I’d say Rep. Black starts off as the slight favorite until more of the race shakes out.
Rep. Eggleston is more centrally located in the district and his house district takes in about a fourth of the primary votes. He has a significant cash on hand advantage with some money loaned to his campaign. He has a voting record that can appeal to conservatives and has been working the district the longest. If he can build on his war chest and spend the money he loaned himself this will be a real race.
Former Rep. Johnson got pulled into the district when they drew in Buchanan, and he probably has the best connections in Andrew County, the largest vote prize in the primary. As a firefighter he can make a play for labor money, and maybe could just drill down on that St. Joseph media market. It will be interesting to see what factor Delus is before the race is over.

Rep. J. Eggleston
Contributions this cycle: $4,119
Cash on hand: $179,359
Grand River PAC
Cash on hand: $1,443
Total cash on hand for the race: $180,802
Rep. Rusty Black
Contributions this cycle: $5,794
Cash on hand: $13,986
Great Northwest PAC
Cash on hand: $1,005
Total cash on hand for the race: $14,991
Former Rep. Delus Johnson
Contributions this cycle: $44,527
Cash on hand: $45,905

#7 SD 16 Senator Justin Brown is seeking re-election. PRIMARY: LIKELY BROWN
Basically all of the folks in the Rowden caucus in the senate had primary opponents recruited against them, Senator Brown got the biggest challenge in incumbent Rep. Suzie Pollock. That combined with one of the worst drawn districts on a poorly drawn map and Senator Brown has a longer summer than he planned.
The Pollock name goes back to her husband who is a former representative and current commissioner in Laclede County, but is going to have to have some help as she has never proven to be a prolific fundraiser. In fact of her $29,000 raised this quarter $25,000 of that was a loan from herself. However, in a pretty surprising development Senator Eigel wrote a check to her campaign. Which is quite surprising to me as he was none too happy about folks from St. Joseph funding his opponent two summers ago. However, I understand that check was written before Rep. Pollock announced for senate and while she was planning to run for the house against Rep. Jeff Knight.
The new district’s make up is pretty well pitted with Phelps and Laclede being roughly a fourth of the district each. Maries and Dent are very close Phelps in every way and are roughly extensions of Phelps where Pulaski is pretty well split between the two, and Wright (mostly because of roads) is off to itself. Leaving Brown with a geography advantage of roughly 15%.
You would think that these counties would be inexpensive media markets, but that isn’t really the case. Rolla is in the St. Louis media market while Maries in the Jeff City market, but two thirds of the district is in the Springfield media market, and won’t be cheap especially with US Senate candidates trying to buy every second in republican primary vote rich southwest Missouri.
There is a very active right wing club in Lebanon and they will work for Pollock, but that is unlikely to overcome what is expected to be an enormous financial advantage for Brown.
Senator Brown’s race is likely to now become a stand for the senate and about the direction of the party. I think the result will be a mountain of money and resources that come to his defense in a race that now has more meaning than just SD16.

Sen. Justin Brown
Contributions this cycle: $36,350
Cash on hand: $100,010
JB PAC
Cash on hand: $100,117
Total cash on hand for the race: $200,128
Rep. Suzie Pollock
Contributions this cycle: $29,750
Cash on hand: $34,501

#8 SD 24 Senator Jill Schupp is retiring. GENERAL: LIKELY MCCREERY
The 24th changed quite a bit, now stretching all the to the JeffCo line and I would have thought that it would have made the district more republican, but in fact it made the district more democrat but cutting out some of the more republican parts of Chesterfield and adding the trending democratic Town and Country area.
While she avoided a primary Rep. McCreery the southward swing of the district brought her two opponents for the general. George Hruza and Brett Schneck.
Hruza could spend on the race, and he has political ambitions that extend past the state senate. He has hired David Barklage and Jamey Murphy for the race, so it will be run well. However, the head winds are real for a republican in St. Louis County.
With ‘22 looking like a good year for republicans this isn’t likely a blow out, but unless something changes the dynamic I’d expect a comfortable win for McCreery.

Rep. Tracy McCreery
Contributions this cycle: $29,986
Cash on hand: $531,231
Serve Missouri PAC
Cash on hand: $44,896
Total cash on hand for the race: $576,100
George Hruza
Contributions this cycle: $11,197
Cash on hand: $92,443
Brett Schenck
Contributions this cycle: $n/a
Cash on hand: $n/a

#9 SD 30 Senator Lincoln Hough is seeking re-election. PRIMARY: LIKELY HOUGH
Probably no senator in the state is as popular with the folks back home as Senator Hough. With the likelihood that he will ascend to Appropriations chair next year and in the district home to a university his re-election has transcended from a political cause to a civic cause.
His opponent had to resign from the city council when she filed so she is not just some random opponent and it wouldn’t surprise me if Senator Hough had found a way to be a smart ass and piss off a few folks back home, combined with the right wing club who hates everyone all the time, but even with those factors this has all the look of an annoyance more than a serious threat.
There is no general this time, but four years from now look for Rep. Crystal Quade to make this a very competitive general election for the democrats.

Sen. Lincoln Hough
Contributions this cycle: $141,039
Cash on hand: $292,338
Lincoln PAC
Cash on hand: $294,881
Total cash on hand for the race: $587,219
Angela Romine
Contributions this cycle: $n/a
Cash on hand: $n/a

#10 SD 8 Senator Mike Cierpiot is seeking re-election. PRIMARY: SAFE CIERPIOT
Senator Cierpiot was another of the senate incumbents who had a candidate recruited against him. The Cierpiot name has been on the ballot in the Lee’s Summit area for decades, and winning for decades.
Today anytime your in office, your gonna get your share of grief, and there is no doubt some appetite to attack any incumbent, but I’m as certain that Orta was out by a full step as I am that if this race gets anywhere close he will have more than enough money to make this race over long before election day.
Now four years from now, if the current trends continue, look for Rep. Ingle to make a serious run at this district.
Bottom line: I’m sure there will be a social media stir about this race, but without some money, serious money spent attacking him, that’s likely all this will be.

Senator Mike Cierpiot
Contributions this cycle: $86,418
Cash on hand: $83,657
Jackson County Leadership PAC
Cash on hand: $49,317.70
Total cash on hand for the race: $170,075
Joe Nicola
Contributions this cycle: $2,266
Cash on hand: $24,313.51
Rachl Aguirre
Contributions this cycle: $ n/a
Cash on hand: $n/a

*An Extra* SD 6 Sen. Mike Bernskoetter is seeking re-election.
Look this race isn’t really contested, Mr. Reidel I’m sure is a nice guy but honestly if Mike just got 70% of the Bernskoetter family living in central Missouri to vote for him it would be an insurmountable margin to overcome.
I only included this because I wanted to tell y’all about Mr. Reidel’s appearance on Austin Peterson’s show in Jeff City.
He was asked about pot, and of course Mr. Reidel doesn’t approve, but before Austin was done with him he had come out for prohibition.
In highly Germanic Cole County.
During lent.
On a Fish Fry Friday.
Just a lesson that running for office isn’t as easy as the folks at the crazy club tell you it is.

Senator Mike Bernskoetter
Contributions this cycle: $95,400
Cash on hand: $176,032
MO Six PAC
Cash on hand: $222,880
Scott Reidel
Contributions this cycle: $ NA
Cash on hand: $ NA

Safe Republican seats

SD 18 Sen. Cindy O’Laughlin
Contributions this cycle: $28,981
Cash on hand: $101,779
North Missouri Leadership PAC
Cash on hand:$n/a

SD 28 Sen. Sandy Crawford
Contributions this cycle: $50,374
Cash on hand: $257,045

SD 32 Sen. Bill White
Contributions this cycle: $57,049
Cash on hand: $71,660
Southwest Missouri Patriot PAC
Cash on hand: $59,193

SD 34 Sen. Tony Luetkemeyer
Contributions this cycle: $ 18,370
Cash on hand: $ 616,380
Tony PAC
Cash on hand: $285,554

Safe Democrat seats
SD 4 Sen. Karla May
Contributions this cycle: NA
Cash on hand: $22,984
Voices of the People PAC
Cash on hand: $35,298

SD 14 Sen. Brian Williams
Contributions this cycle: $113,122
Cash on hand: 187,945.40
B PAC
Cash on hand: $102,425.00

Incumbents who are term limited in 2024.

SD 11 Sen. John Rizzo is term limited.
Contributions this cycle: $76,180
Cash on hand: $24,845
Truth in Campaigns PAC
Cash on hand: $231,217

Potential candidates:

Former Independence Mayor Eileen Weir
Contributions this cycle: $141,813
Cash on hand: $58,100
Missourians for a Better Tomorrow
Cash on hand: $14,885

Rep. Robbie Sauls
Contributions this cycle: $131,442
Cash on hand: $24,845
Rep. Bill Kidd
Contributions this cycle: $10,076
Cash on hand: $3,486

SD 15 Sen. Andrew Koenig is term limited.
Contributions this cycle: $74,525
Cash on hand: $41,760
Freedom’s Promise PAC
Cash on hand: $16,536

SD 17 Sen. Caleb Rowden is term limited.
Contributions this cycle: $97,825
Cash on hand: $57,724
Missouri Forward PAC
Cash on hand: $56,682.

Potential candidates:

Former Columbia Mayor Brian Treece
Contributions this cycle: $n/a
Cash on hand: $n/a

Former Rep. Stephen Webber
Contributions this cycle: $n/a
Cash on hand: $n/a

Rep. Chuck Bayse
Contributions this cycle: $0
Cash on hand: $8,714

SD 19 Sen. Lauren Arthur is term limited.
Contributions this cycle: $3,500
Cash on hand: $ 92,295
True North PAC
Cash on hand: $92,295

Potential candidates:

Clay County Commissioner Jon Carpenter
Contributions this cycle: $ n/a
Cash on hand: $93,168

SD 21 Sen. Denny Hoskins is term limited.
Contributions this cycle: $50,495
Cash on hand: $107,456
Old Drum Conservative PAC
Cash on hand: $56,995

Potential candidates:

Rep. Kurtis Gregory
Contributions this cycle: $ 62,617
Cash on hand: $48,168

SD 23 Sen. Bill Eigel is term limited.
Contributions this cycle: $185,594
Cash on hand: $110,376
BILL PAC
Cash on hand: $ 185,040

Potential candidates:

Rep. Phil Christofanelli 
Contributions this cycle: $1,750
Cash on hand: $15,433
Saint Charles Organization of RepublicansPAC
Cash on hand: $80,386

Incumbents who are up for re-election in 2024

SD 1 Sen. Doug Beck
Contributions this cycle: $63,695
Cash on hand: $98,699
Doug PAC
Cash on hand: $43, 308
Total cash on hand for the race: $

SD 3 Sen. Elaine Gannon
Contributions this cycle: $77,486
Cash on hand: $13,441
Six County PAC
Cash on hand: $20,378

SD 5 Sen. Steve Roberts
Contributions this cycle: $59,165
Cash on hand: $31,106
STL Democratic Coalition PAC
Cash on hand: $40,300

SD 7 Sen.Greg Razer
Contributions this cycle: $55,838
Cash on hand: $119,855
KC Neighbors for Progress PAC:
Cash on hand:$37,593

SD 9 Sen. Barbara Washington
Contributions this cycle: n/a
Cash on hand: n/a
Eastside Forward PAC
Cash on hand: $76,608

SD 13 Sen. Angela Mosley
Contributions this cycle: $92,436
Cash on hand: $45,846

SD 25 Sen. Jason Bean
Contributions this cycle: $181,036
Cash on hand: $139,180
Conservative Leadership for Southeast Missouri PAC
Cash on hand: $46,292

SD 27 Sen. Holly Rehder
Contributions this cycle: $77,494
Cash on hand: $95,401
Southern Drawl PAC
Cash on hand: $4,232.09

SD 29 Sen. Mike Moon
Contributions this cycle: $301,172
Cash on hand: $52,342

SD 31 Sen.Brattin
Contributions this cycle: $263,685.68
Cash on hand: $41,718.92
True Patriot PAC
Cash on hand: $93,94$

SD 33 Sen. Karla Eslinger
Contributions this cycle: $7,750
Cash on hand: $38,153
Conservative leadership of the Ozarks PAC
Cash on hand: $10,305.