The ‘26 cycle begins with the returning senators not up for election in 2026 with 10 Republicans and 7 Democrats.
You really have to think that Senator McCreery is a lock to be re-elected making it 10-8. Senators Schroer, Fitzwater, Black, Ben Brown, and Trent will be re-elected making it 15-8. Then Senators May and Williams will be replaced by fellow Democrats taking the numbers to 15-10. Senator Carter may face a primary but regardless SD32 will send a Republican to the Senate making it 16-10.
While Senators Bernskoetter, Justin Brown, Cindy O’Laughlin, Coleman, and Crawford will be replaced by fellow Republicans making it 21-10.
That leaves SD34 where Senator Luetkemeyer is likely, but not certain to be replaced by a Republican making it 22-10.
Then there are the two very competitive seats in SD30 and SD8 where Republicans probably have the advantage but the districts are not trending well for the GOP and the Democrats have strong candidates.
So the cycle begins with a 22-10 Republican majority with two competitive races.
Competitive General Elections
#1 SD 30 R+2% Senator Lincoln Hough is term limited.
PRIMARY: LEAN STINNETT
GENERAL: LEAN REPUBLICAN
This will be the most interesting race in the state because it will have a primary and a general election. On the Republicans side you could possibly see a primary of Rep. Melanie Stinnett vs. Springfield businessman Brian Gelner who ran in SD20 in ‘22.
Out of the gate you would give the edge to Rep. Stinnett because of her background of winning tough races. Gelner was a tremendous fundraiser in ‘22 that leads me to think that the best way to avoid a primary is either A) Stinnett comes out of the gate with a big quarter or B) Governor Kehoe gets involved, which seems like a longshot.
The Democrats are waiting on ‘24 gubernatorial nominee Crystal Quade to decide if she wants to run. If she does then the nomination is likely hers. If not then Rep. Betsy Fogle is waiting in the wings to mount a campaign.
Regardless of which combination of Gelner or Stinnett vs. Quade or Fogle the race to replace Senator Hough will be the most competitive in the state.
Rep. Melanie Stinnett
Cash on Hand: $47,659.97
Heart of SGF PAC
Cash on Hand: $1,692.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $49,351.97
Rep. Crystal Quade
Cash on Hand: $18,291.76
CRYSTAL PAC
Cash on Hand: $13,719.87
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $32,011.63
Rep. Betsy Fogle
Cash on Hand: $111,881.35
Forward PAC
Cash on Hand: $11,961.67
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $123,843.02
#2 SD 8 R+3% Senator Mike Cierpiot is term limited.
GENERAL: LEAN REPUBLICAN
This race will be a primary and a general as well, but likely not as competitive of a primary as SD30. The discussion on the race begins with Rep. Keri Ingle. She is a star of the Democratic Party and is the only person who could really take this seat from the Republicans. If the Democrats are 100% fully funding this race along with SD30, and that is their game plan to get to 12 members in ‘26, and take away the veto proof majority in the State Senate.
The Republican side begins and ends with House Speaker Jon Patterson. He is the top star on the Republican bench statewide, but could choose to take this Senate seat. If he does then then everyone will have to rethink how they rank SD8.
If the speaker chooses not to make the race then you likely have former Rep. Dan Stacy who will likely run either way, against Dr. Marc Taormina.
Taormina could possibly be a self funding Axiom client and have the advantage in the primary.
This race is still taking shape. The possibilities range from Speaker Patterson putting the seat away for the Republicans to Rep. Ingle likely being slightly favored over former Rep. Stacy to a donnybrook between Rep. Ingle and the doctor.
It’s still early and while the district is trending more blue we’re keeping it lean Republican until things fully shake out.
Rep. Keri Ingle
Cash on Hand: $71,221.95
KERI PAC
Cash on Hand: $26,902.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $98,123.95
Former Rep. Dan Stacy
Cash on Hand: $4,712.31
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $4,712.31
Speaker Jon Patterson
Cash on Hand: $303,433.07
Missouri Alliance PAC
Cash on Hand: $1,107,497.07
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $1,410,930.14
#3 SD 34 R+5% Senator Tony Luetkemeyer is term limited.
GENERAL: LIKELY REPUBLICAN
The primary will likely be more interesting than the general, but there is a chance that a Democrat could compete. The southern portion of the district is trending away from the GOP while the northern historically Democratic portion of the district is trending stronger Republican every cycle. It’s hard to see anyone being a better candidate than Martin Rucker in ‘18, but who knows if Senator Beck can pull a recruit that will at least make the Republicans spend some money in SD34.
On the Republican side Rep. Sean Pouche is discussing running as well as Rep. Brenda Shields and Kansas City Councilman Nathan Willett.
Any of the three would be favored in a general election. You have a difference in Rep. Shields from the northern portion of the district who has amazing name ID in the district and many big donors who would be all in for her and young, but very real talent in Councilman Willett from the southern portion of the district. It seems unlikely that Shields and Willett run against each other, and if Willett gets the nod you could see a Governor in the making.
Rep. Brenda Shields
Cash on Hand: $99,923.71
Lewis and Clark Leadership PAC
Cash on Hand: $18,709.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $118,632.71
Rep. Sean Pouche
Cash on Hand: $20,811.13
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $20,811.13
Kansas City Councilman Nathan Willett
Cash on Hand: $7,206.43
NextGen North PAC
Cash on Hand: $24,860.90
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $32,067.33
Incumbents Facing Potential Primaries
#4 SD 32 R+41% Senator Jill Carter is seeking re-election
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: LIKELY CARTER
Senator Carter pulled the upset of 2022 in defeating Senator Bill White. She has taken to the Senate and is now in a very good spot to be one of the most influential senators the next two years.
However, there is a good deal of speculation that Rep. Ben Baker who is term limited might consider challenging her next summer. Keep in mind she defeated an incumbent in former Senator White in ‘22.
She will start out as the favorite, but Rep. Ben Baker would be a legitimate challenger.
Sen. Jill Carter
Cash on Hand: $39,019.62
Missouri Heritage PAC
Cash on Hand: $18,534.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $57,553.62
Rep. Ben Baker
Cash on Hand: $82,642.49
MO Values PAC
Cash on Hand: 19,262.33
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $101,904.82
Open Dems Safe Primary
#5 SD 4 D+5.3% Senator Karla May is term limited.
GENERAL: SAFE DEMOCRAT PRIMARY: TOSS UP
The race to replace Senator May will be the typically spirited one like it is every year the seat is open. As of now Rep. Steve Butz has come out with a lot of momentum and a big event. He will undoubtedly put together the money to be a force in the race from south city.
Former Rep. Peter Merideth is still mulling a run, and if he jumps into the race he will be a major factor and probably detrimental to Rep. Butz.
Former Rep. Gina Mitten is looking at running, and as a woman and veteran legislator would be a top tier contender.
Blaine Folsom is the legislative assistant to Rep. Bosley has opened a campaign account to run. Many are encouraging former Rep. and current member of Senator May’s staff Wiley Price to consider running.
Blaine Folsom
Cash on Hand: $ N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $ N/A
Peter Merideth
Cash on Hand: $24,551.52
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $24,551.52
Rep. Steve Butz
Cash on Hand: $97,246.18
Butz STL PAC
Cash on Hand: $31,776.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $129,022.18
Gina Mitten
Cash on Hand: Limited Activity
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $ N/A
Michele Kratky
Cash on Hand: $1,235.59
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $1,235.59
#6 SD 14 D+32% Senator Brian Williams is term limited.
GENERAL: SAFE DEMOCRAT PRIMARY: LEAN PROUDIE
The race to replace the most talented Democrat in the state will be a hot one just as it was eight years ago. Rep. Raychel Proudie is officially in the race and probably starts as the front runner. Her name ID from running her House campaigns and her fundraising contacts give her a head start.
There is also a very competitive potential field with Joe Palm who has working in the White House on his resume and has all the ability to be a top flight contender. Shaunte Duncan, an ally of Senator Roberts is also running. She has the potential to also make this a very very competitive field. Lastly, it wouldn’t shock me if former Rep. and all around stud John Bowman jumped in.
Joe Palm
Cash on Hand: $ N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $N/A
Shaunte Duncan
Cash on Hand: $10,209.42
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $10,209.42
Rep. Raychel Proudie
Cash on Hand: $11,344.83
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $11,344.83
Open Republicans Safe Primary
#1 SD 22 R+16% Senator Mary Elizabeth Coleman is retiring
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: LEAN CASTEEL
The race to replace Senator Coleman in north JeffCo will be a barn burner. Bout like the race in ‘22. The first out of the gate will be Rep. David Casteel. He is a businessman with a lot of connections in both the business and political communities.
Rep. Ken Waller is said to be mulling over running while Rep. Renee Reuter has announced her intention to join the race. Both have county wide name ID, but Waller probably would be the favorite of the two.
Then the wild card is former Rep. Jim Avery. He was a very talented legislator in the House, and has told some folks that he could partially fund a primary in his new home county. Jim has the personality and potentially the resources to make this a fun race to cover.
Rep. David Casteel
Cash on Hand: $30,518.86
Casteel PAC
Cash on Hand: $9,604.26
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $40,123.12
Rep. Renee Reuter
Cash on Hand: $2,918.59
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $2,918.59
Rep. Ken Waller
Cash on Hand: $51,750.43
Building JeffCo Together
Cash on Hand: $5,619.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $57,369.43
David Robertson
Cash on Hand: N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $ N/A
#2 SD 16 R+19% Senator Justin Brown is term limited.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: TOSS UP
The race will be a donnybrook with candidates from all across the district vying for the Senate seat. Starting left to right Rep. Jeff Knight from Laclede County has the best fundraising pedigree of the field and hails from Laclede County with 28% of the vote. The question will be does he want to run. He has many irons in the fire and a tough decision to make. His decision will shape the race more than anyone else.
Former Rep. Hannah Kelly is reportedly in the race from Wright County who starts with 14.3% of the vote and maybe a head start on a Missouri Right to Life endorsement.
Pulaski County has more people than primary voters because of the military base and has two candidates in the race. Rep. Don Mayhew who has a proven track record of winning elections and could potentially self fund a portion of the race.
Rep. Bill Hardwick’s military record and name ID makes him a top contender. He has a strong record of raising money and if he puts together enough money to tell the folks in SD16 about his war record he could be the one who benefits most if Rep. Knight foregores a run.
Joe Steelman starts off the race with a stellar last name and the only candidate from the Phelps/Dent area of the district that makes up over a third of the district. He is a first time candidate, but it’s in his blood. If he remains the only candidate from Phelps/Dent and puts together a quick $100,000 then he would probably attain front runner status.
In the end if Rep. Knight is in the race that is to Steelman’s advantage and the winner can probably make it across the finish line with 8,000-9,000 votes. If Rep. Knight is not in the race then the winner will need to top 10,000 votes and those 7,000 votes in Laclede County will be a prize to whoever raises the most money to chase them.
Joseph Steelman
Cash on Hand: N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $N/A
Rep. Bill Hardwick
Cash on Hand: $149,722.86
Missouri Enterprise Fund
Cash on Hand: $37,299.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $187,021.86
Rep. Don Mayhew
Cash on Hand: $37,346.36
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $37,346.36
Rep. Hannah Kelley
Cash on Hand: N/A
Accountability PAC
Cash on Hand: $6,244.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $6,244.00
Rep. Jeff Knight
Cash on Hand: $80,320.00
YAK PAC
Cash on Hand:$42,384.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $122,704.00
#3 SD 6 R+6% Senator Mike Bernskoetter is term limited.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: TOSS UP
This has historically been a Cole County seat for decades. However, there is a new wrinkle in the maps in that Cole and Moniteau only represent 53.3% of the district.
Competing for those votes are Rep. Rudy Veit and Jefferson City Councilman Derrick Spicer. Rep. Veit will have the advantage of a larger area that he has represented than Spicer and has the ability to finance his own race if he chooses. While Spicer is holding his own in fundraising and has a cast of celebrity friends from Ozzie Smith to Neil Smith willing to back him. Spicer is well known in the political community, and is a legitimate contender in this race.
If they split up that 53.% of the vote there will be an open lane for someone from Camden County to run. Former Rep. Lisa Thomas has been rumored to be considering a run for senate. Camden County Presiding Commissioner Ike Skelton has been mentioned. He has some legal issues right now, but if he comes through them he will have more steam than ever. You have to think that before this race is over Mrs. Gail will come up with some shenanigans to make this race even more fun to watch.
Ike Skelton
Cash on Hand:$ N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $ N/A
Former Rep. Lisa Thomas
Cash on Hand: $42,142
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $42,142
Rep. Rudy Veit
Cash on Hand: $71,269
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $71,269
Councilman Derrick Spicer
Cash on Hand: $30,067
Spicer for Senate PAC
Cash on Hand: N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $30,067
#4 SD 18 R+25% Senator Cindy O’Laughlin is term limited.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: LEAN GRAFF
There are big shoes to fill in the race for SD18. Rep. Greg Sharpe has a lot of the qualities you think of when you think of past Senators from northeast Missouri. He has a great profile and a great backstory to be a serious contender in the race.
Rep. Louis Riggs is not running.
Sarah Graff, who previously worked for Senators Blunt and Bond, is a newcomer to being on the ballot herself, but currently works for Congressman Sam Graves, and will likely have the might of Axiom behind her on their home turf. She is from Moberly which is one of the population centers of the district.
This race will likely be a toss up until one of the candidates starts raising money to out pace the others. Plus a Senator O’Laughlin endorsement would be a big get in this one.
Sarah Graff
Cash on Hand: N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $N/A
Rep. Greg Sharpe
Cash on Hand: $26,412
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $26,412
#5 SD 28 R+24% Senator Sandy Crawford is term limited.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: LIKELY POLLITT
Rep. Brad Pollitt starts out this race as the considerable front runner. The former superintendent of Sedalia schools and a cattle farmer, he has an extensive personal network around the district and the name ID from two high profile jobs. With 16.9% of the vote coming out of Pettis, 14.9% out of Henry and 11.2% Benton, Pollitt starts the race with high name ID in 43% of SD28. With that portion being in the much more expensive Kansas City media market is a huge advantage in the race.
As of now the only rumored candidate to oppose Pollitt is Dr. Sam Alexander. He is a physician who lives in Cedar County but works in Springfield. He ran for Congress with Billy Long retired and didn’t put out much of a campaign, but some say he could self fund an effort.
Unless there is another candidate from the northern end of the district Rep. Pollitt begins the race as the front runner.
Rep. Brad Pollitt
Cash on Hand: $67,054.59
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $67,054.59
Safest Republican incumbents seeking re-election
#1 SD 10 R+14% Senator Travis Fitzwater is seeking re-election.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Sen. Travis Fitzwater
Senator Fitzwater currently stands as the least likely Republican incumbent to face a serious primary or general election. He has done a good job of ingraining himself into the eastern side of the district and his stellar reputation in the Kingdom of Callaway means he would be very very tough to beat.
That combined with the legislative record he is piling up means he comes in as our incumbent least likely to face a tough primary, and in the 10th there are no general elections.
Cash on Hand: $156,113.85
Kingdom Leadership PAC
Cash on Hand: $66,379.45
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $222,493.30
#2 SD 2 R+16.5% Senator Nick Schroer is seeking re-election.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Sen. Nick Schroer
Senator Schroer would be nearly impossible to beat in a primary or a general election. However he throws some elbows and it’s possible that someone could choose to take him on. Either way there is little to no chance of it being a seriously contested race.
Cash on Hand: $58,801.61
1776 PAC
Cash on Hand: $138,855.52
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $197,657.13
#3 SD 12 R+19% Senator Rusty Black is seeking re-election.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Sen. Rusty Black
You could really take this list and organize them pretty much any way you’d like and be right. Senator Black is the GREAT Northwest. I can’t imagine that anyone would run against him, but if anyone does Axiom will never let them live it down.
Total Raised this Cycle: $155,846.37
Cash on Hand: $171,566.15
Great Northwest PAC
Cash on Hand: $34,232.72
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $205,798.90
#4 SD 20 R+21% Senator Curtis Trent is seeking re-election.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Sen. Curtis Trent
The biggest brain in the General Assembly is part of a new emerging leadership group in Springfield and will have no trouble being re-elected. The race in SD30 should distract anyone from stirring trouble in SD20, but don’t totally count out someone wanting more drama in Springfield.
Total Raised this Cycle: $71,323.38
Cash on Hand: $130,184.51
417 PAC
Cash on Hand: $224,105.45
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $354,290.96
#5 SD 26 R+15% Senator Ben Brown is seeking re-election.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Sen. Ben Brown
Senator Brown is totally protected on his right flank, and very popular in Franklin County. He has earned a great reputation working with his colleagues and the chairman of the economic development committee will cruise to re-election.
Total Raised this Cycle: $196,068.09
Cash on Hand: $99,939.86
BB Freedom Fund
Cash on Hand: $87,091.15
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $187,031.01
#6 SD 24 D+8% Senator Tracy McCreery is seeking re-election.
GENERAL: SAFE DEMOCRAT
Sen. Tracy McCreery
Senator McCreery is beloved by St. Louis County Democrats, most of whom dream of her running for higher office. She is as unbeatable as anyone on the Democratic ballot in ‘26.
Total Raised this Cycle: $86,059.10
Cash on Hand: $78,558.22
Serve Missouri
Cash on Hand: $54,111.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $132,669.22
Seats not up for election until 2028
SD 1 D+8.08%
DOUG BECK
GENERAL: SAFE DEMOCRAT
Sen. Doug Beck *Term Limited*
Cash on Hand: $171,175.23
DougPAC
Cash on Hand: $33,898.78
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $205,074.01
SD3 R+35.8%
MIKE HENDERSON
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Sen. Mike Henderson
Cash on Hand: $30,595.47
Leadbelt PAC
Cash on Hand: $20,815.01
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $51,410.48
SD 5 D+80.86%
STEVEN ROBERTS
GENERAL: SAFE DEMOCRAT
Sen. Steven Roberts *Term Limited*
Cash on Hand: $74,363.08
STL Democratic Coalition
Cash on Hand: $61,239.08
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $135,602.16
SD 7 D+17.74%
PATTY LEWIS
GENERAL: SAFE DEMOCRAT
Sen. Patty Lewis
Cash on Hand: $51,008.02
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $51,008.02
SD 9 D+62.8%
BARBARA WASHINGTON
GENERAL: SAFE DEMOCRAT
Sen. Barbara Washington *Term Limited*
Cash on Hand: $N/A
Eastside Forward PAC
Cash on Hand: $134,752.19
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $134,752.19
SD 11 R+4.06%
JOE NICOLA
GENERAL: LEAN REPUBLICAN
Sen. Joe Nicola
Cash on Hand: $13,384.17
Freedom and Liberty PAC
Cash on Hand: $13,031.90
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $26,380.07
SD 13 D+63.2%
ANGELA MOSLEY
GENERAL: SAFE DEMOCRAT
Sen. Angela Mosley
Total Raised this Cycle: $110,344.21
Cash on Hand: $42,649.92
Mosley PAC
Cash on Hand: $7,298.90
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $49,948.82
SD 15 R+7.72%
DAVID GREGORY
GENERAL: LEAN REPUBLICAN
Sen. David Gregory
Cash on Hand: $430.21
Show Me Growth PAC
Cash on Hand: $11,522.01
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $11,952.22
SD 17 D+7.74%
MAGGIE NURRENBERN GENERAL: LEAN DEMOCRAT
Sen. Maggie Nurrenbern
Cash on Hand: $32,406.28
Northland Forward
Cash on Hand: $56,194.13
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $88,600.41
SD 19 D+13.38%
STEPHEN WEBBER GENERAL: SAFE DEMOCRAT
Sen. Stephen Webber
Total Raised this Cycle: $723,510.47
Cash on Hand: $444,893.07
Homefront PAC
Cash on Hand: $22,360.71
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $467,253.80
SD 21 R+26.44%
KURTIS GREGORY GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Sen. Kurtis Gregory
Cash on Hand: $135,045.66
The Wonderdog PAC
Cash on Hand: $149,832.68
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $284,878.30
SD 23 R+6.08%
ADAM SCHNELTING GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Sen. Adam Schnelting
Cash on Hand: $40,698.20
Protect Our Kids PAC
Cash on Hand: $9,790.23
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $50,488.43
SD 25 R+54.04%
JASON BEAN GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Sen. Jason Bean *Term Limited*
Cash on Hand: $141,364.44
Conservative Leadership for Southeast Missouri
Cash on Hand: $127,299.66
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $268,664.10
SD 27 R+48.44%
JAMIE BURGER GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Sen. Jamie Burger
Cash on Hand: $47,654.48
Bootheel Values PAC
Cash on Hand: $62,358.01
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $110,012.49
SD 29 R+54.04%
MIKE MOON GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Sen. Mike Moon *Term Limited*
Cash on Hand: $55,607.89
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $55,607.89
SD 31 R+29.09%
RICK BRATTIN GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Sen. Rick Brattin *Term Limited*
Cash on Hand: $6,739.97
True Patriot PAC
Cash on Hand: $35,997.64
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $42,737.61
SD 33 R+57.16%
BRAD HUDSON GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Sen. Brad Hudson
Cash on Hand: $116,142.46
Brad PAC
Cash on Hand: $53,391.55
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $169,534.01
