JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. – A new poll commissioned by Missouri Scout may indicate the conventional wisdom surrounding the Missouri governor’s race will fall by the wayside as it has in many elections this cycle.
The survey conducted by the Remington Research Group shows that businessman John Brunner leads the pack of four Republicans with 23 percent. Perhaps of more interest, it also shows Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder, the presumptive front-runner, in last place with just 16 percent of the vote.
Former House Speaker Catherine Hanaway trails Brunner by just two percent, and former Navy SEAL Eric Greitens has 17 percent of the vote. Twenty-five percent of Republican voters said they are still undecided.
The poll also covered most of the other statewide Republican primaries. In the lieutenant governor’s race, former chair of the Missouri Club for Growth Bev Randles has a 23 to 20 percent lead on state Sen. Mike Parson, though over half of all voters are undecided in that race. Jay Ashcroft has a commanding lead over state Sen. Will Kraus with 49 percent to just 10. And finally, in the attorney general’s race, state Sen. Kurt Schaefer has a 28 percent to 21 percent lead over University of Missouri law professor Josh Hawley, though 51 percent of voters are undecided in that race as well.
Regionally, Kinder has the upper hand in Northern and Central Missouri with 54 percent of likely voters in Kirksville, 27 percent in Columbia, and 42 percent in Hannibal. However, the lieutenant governor trails in his home city of Cape Girardeau 24 percent to 26 percent to Brunner. Brunner also has a massive lead in Joplin at 57 percent, in St. Joseph with 45 percent, and he leads in Springfield with 29 percent. Hanaway slightly edges out Brunner in Kansas City 24 percent to 22, and she’s the only candidate in St. Louis with more than 20 percent of the vote. While Greitens does not have a lead in any specific region, he has over 20 percent of the vote in Cape Girardeau, Hannibal, Springfield and St. Joseph.
While Kinder has touted his ability to win urban votes in St. Louis and Kansas City, the numbers suggest otherwise. He currently trails all candidates in those two cities with just 14 percent of the vote in each.
Greitens may not also have the regional vote locked down, but he is currently winning the younger demographic with 27 percent of likely voters between 18-39. Hanaway has a slight edge over Kinder in the 40-49 range with 22 percent to 21 percent. Brunner leads with the older demographics: 21 percent of those aged 50-69 and nearly 30 percent of people 70 years old on up.
Brunner also leads among male and female respondents, but Hanaway, the only woman in the race, is the only candidate who has a larger percentage of the women’s vote than the men’s. Ultimately, female Republican voters are still undecided with 29 percent not preferring any candidate yet.
In the lieutenant governor’s race, Randles leads in Northwestern Missouri with big leads in Kansas City and St. Joseph, as well as a lead in St. Louis. Parson does better in rural areas with big leads in Kirksville, Springfield and Hannibal, and a slight lead in Joplin. Parson tops Randles 20 percent to 18 percent among women, but Randles has a much larger lead among male voters – 27 percent to 19. Parson leads by that same percentage in voters aged 40-49, but Randles leads in the other three age demographics.
Schaefer leads Hawley, two Columbia residents, in that city 39 percent to 28 percent, and he has significant leads in Kansas City, Kirksville, Hannibal, Springfield and St. Louis as well. However, Hawley leads in Joplin and St. Joseph. Hawley also leads Schaefer 30 percent to 21 percent among those aged 40-49, but Schaefer leads in the other age demographics by an average of seven points. Even though 59 percent of women are still undecided on the candidate for attorney general, Schaefer leads in that demographic 24 percent to 17, and he leads in the male demographic 33 to 24.
Ashcroft leads in every metric of age, gender and locality in the race for Secretary of State.
The survey of 963 likely Republican voters was taken June 18 and 19, and it has a 3.2 percent margin of error.
