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Statewide tipsheet: October 2020

  

Governor | TIP SHEET PREDICTION: LIKELY REPUBLICAN 

This race has stayed pretty close to what was to be expected, and the latest reliable polling I’ve seen puts Gov. Mike Parson up by approximately 8 percent. He is running ahead of where a Republican needs to be in southwest Missouri, incumbent governors always run well in central Missouri, anything associated with President Trump is gold in southeast Missouri, and he is running ahead of Trump in St. Louis and Kansas City. 

Both campaigns have spent millions trying to convince Missourians that the other is shady, and if I had to guess, Missourians started this campaign liking both candidates and will end the campaign liking both. Of course, their negatives will be higher with the partisan base of the other, but both likely come out of the race with the approval of most Missourians. 

Now in the final two weeks, Nicole Galloway could decide to begin to ratchet up the negative — which would then see the Parson camp respond in kind — but as of now, both sides have been somewhat reserved. 

Most folks had to factor in Trump slipping from his historic 19 percent win in Missouri in 2016, and as other governors’ races around the country have become less and less competitive, Missouri now has the only really competitive race in the country. The practical implication of that has helped Galloway be helped more by the DGA than some may have planned for while everyone knew the RGA would heavily support the incumbent.

The race started with Parson ahead double digits and has tightened — but not enough to make it a toss-up, and frankly more than a lean. Galloway’s aggressive stance in their debate shows she probably agrees with this assessment too. 

(R) Governor Mike Parson
Contributions this election: $5,079,032
Cash on hand: $1,673,262
Uniting Missouri PAC
Cash on hand: $428,719
(D) State Auditor Nicole Galloway
Contributions this cycle: $2,375,613
Cash on hand: $1,581,997
Keep Government Accountable PAC
Cash on hand: $95,406


Lt. Governor | TIP SHEET PREDICTION: SAFE REPUBLICAN 

Perhaps no one in Missouri has the Rolodex that Mike Kehoe has. He put that Rolodex to use both around the state with getting some people involved on the ground and in the fundraising arena. He has run a very solid campaign and has accomplished all he would have wanted to in order to set him up for his next race — which will undoubtedly be for a higher office. All that is left is to collect his big win on election night. 

His opponent, former Councilwoman Alissia Canady has shown well and has enhanced her viability for a local Kansas City office. This race was always a long shot and has proven to be so. 

(R) Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe
Contributions this cycle: $2,026,613
Cash on hand: $577,446
American Dream PAC
Cash on hand: $307,854
(D) Former Kansas City Councilwoman Alissia Canady
Contributions this cycle: $150,559
Cash on hand: $75,911


Attorney General | TIP SHEET PREDICTION: SAFE REPUBLICAN 

Eric Schmitt is the most talented politician on the Republican side, and when the governor selected Schmitt to finish the unexpired term of Senator Josh Hawley, one of the factors in his decision was the fact that Schmitt would most certainly hold the seat. He has lived up to and surpassed those expectations. 

Rich Finneran took on a longshot race and has struggled to get attention or funding. He has been on the front line of struggling to deal with the “defund the police” movement, avoiding the topic in the primary and distancing himself from the movement in the general. He has really only been able to avoid the pitfalls because he hasn’t been close enough to Schmitt in the race to garner attention. 

Schmitt is poised to lead the ticket, and if there happens to be a vacant U.S. Senate seat in 2022, likely to make that same argument of leading the ticket that Hawley did to stake his claim to that seat. 

(R) Attorney General Eric Schmitt
Contributions this cycle: $331,920
Cash on hand: $723,132
MO Opportunity PAC
Cash on hand: $2,199,495
(D) Rich Finneran
Contributions this cycle: $191,980
Cash on hand: $136,457


Secretary of State | TIP SHEET PREDICTION: SAFE REPUBLICAN 

I have no doubt that Mr. Yinka Faleti and his very talented campaign team get tired of hearing how impressive he is and how good of a campaign he is running — and how he isn’t going to beat Jay Ashcroft. However, all that is true. 

If the higher-ups in the Democratic party aren’t at his door the day after the election, they are nuts. He has a tremendous resume, is talented on the stump, and has raised three-quarters of a million dollars. He is talented. 

Now comes the second part where reality kicks in. Ashcroft has been an excellent secretary of state and has made several rulings that took some serious backbone. He is the son of a legendary Missouri family and has done that family proud. He will do very well on Election Day and the day after will be part of the discussion for higher office. 

(R) Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft
Contributions this cycle: $542,813
Cash on hand: $408,505
Committee for Liberty PAC
Cash on hand: $97,028
(D) Yinka Faleti
Contributions this cycle: $738,999.77
Cash on hand: $436,284


Treasurer | TIP SHEET PREDICTION: LIKELY REPUBLICAN

Former Rep. Vicki Englund secured the nomination for the down-ticket race that Democrats thought they had the best shot at winning in the treasurer’s race. She has run a fine campaign as she is the veteran of several competitive efforts. However, while this may have been the race that the Democrats thought was the best shot, it’s still a long one in Missouri as both candidates have seen how challenging it can be to fundraise for the job. 

The incumbent Treasurer Scott Fitzpatrick has come up with some innovative ways to endear himself to Republicans — and has done all the basics well that a frontrunner needs to do. Being the youngest statewide elected official, he has plenty of time to wait for the right opportunity to run for higher office and with the wisdom of postponing his swearing-in, he has another term available to him as state treasurer. 

(R) State Treasurer Scott Fitzpatrick
Contributions this cycle: $583,827
Cash on hand: $376,666
Missourians for a Responsible Budget PAC
Cash on hand: $165,131
(D) Former State Rep. Vicki Englund
Contributions this cycle: $169,435
Cash on hand: $7,329