‘24 Statewide Races
Governor: Republican Primary: LEAN KEHOE – Democrat Primary: LEAN QUADE
General: LIKELY REPUBLICAN
Republicans
Lt. Governor Mike Kehoe
To coin a phrase from one of the greatest politicians in the history of Missouri: I think I would rather be Kehoe in the final weekend than the other two. It’s been a barn burner and it started with Kehoe having to tear down Ashcroft’s thirty-point lead.
It took two years but today it’s a margin-of-error race with more polls showing Kehoe at the upper end of that margin than his opponents. Here is his great closing ad.
How he wins: He racks up big margins in rural Missourah and comes in second in St. Louis and KC.
Campaign song of the last two weeks: You never even called me by name by David Allan Coe.
Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft
There was a time about a month ago when this race was starting to slip away from him, but he caught a break out of nowhere in the pharma guys. Here is the ad, it’s really good. If Jay Ashcroft wins, he is gonna owe the drug guys.
He also kept plugging when the race was tough, and now he is gaining some momentum in the polls. It’s gonna be a close one and he is doing well ending with a Mike Huckabee and Lee Freaking Greenwood rally.
How he wins: Catch votes from Eigel and hope he rides home on the drug ads.
Campaign song of the last two weeks: Drug Dealer Dream by Rick Ross
Senator Bill Eigel
Eigel has run an amazing campaign. In all historical reality, he should have been nothing more than a spoiler. He has already proved a lot of folks wrong as he is as legitimate a candidate as anyone in the field.
That said he probably needs more luck than the other two tomorrow. As you all know I’m not one to call attention to myself or brag, but over a year ago I told y’all he was legit in this race.
How he wins: Low turnout is his friend. His supporters will crawl over glass to vote for him.
Campaign song of the last two weeks: Started from the bottom by Drake
Democrats
House Minority Leader Crystal Quade
She has done literally everything the democrat party could ask of anyone, and yet the party stabbed her in the back. She is an attractive, articulate, excellent legislator who could be one of the building blocks of a resurgent democratic party.
How she wins: Being the most qualified and credible female candidate in what democrats are telling everyone who will listen is the year of the woman.
Campaign song of the last two weeks: Better Than Revenge by Taylor Swift
Springfield Businessman Mike Hamra
Mr. Hamra lost his legendary father Sam over the weekend.
How he wins: Hopes he has run enough ads to overcome the advantage of being a female in a Democratic primary.
Lt. Governor: Primary: LEAN HOUGH – General: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Senator Lincoln Hough
How he wins: Runs up a margin in Springfield, Kansas City, and outstate and comes in second in SEMO and St. Louis.
Senator Holly Rehder
How she wins: There is a clear strategy for her to win SEMO, come in second everywhere else and win.
David Wassinger
How he wins: Run up a big margin in St. Louis and Kansas City while holding his own everywhere else.
Attorney General: Primary: LEAN BAILEY General: SAFE Republican
Attorney General Andrew Bailey
How he wins: Keeps his lead outstate and rolls home on one of the most impressive statewide campaigns anyone has seen.
Former Assistant U.S. Attorney Will Scharf
How he wins: Hopes that his late multimillion-dollar fundraising nets enough undecides to sway the race. I think most polling shows Bailey with a lead, but it’s not an insurmountable one with all of the undecideds.
Secretary of State: Primary: TOSS UP General: SAFE Republican
House Speaker Dean Plocher
How he wins: Capitalizes on having the resources to garner the highest name ID, and wins the St. Louis DMA.
Senator Denny Hoskins
How he wins: Eigel has a good night, and he coasts in alongside him. If the Eigel machine hits 28-30% of the #MOGOV vote Denny could absolutely win this race.
State Senator Mary Elizabeth Coleman
How she wins: If she wins it’s because she had already built up enough name ID through earned media to win this race before filing.
Wentzville Judge Mike Carter
How he wins: He is Mike Carter. Cool shit happens to him. Oh and he has marketing techniques that no one in politics monitors. If they pay off he could totally win.
Greene County Clerk Shane Schoeller
How he wins: If the winner of this race comes in under 20% I think he is the favorite.
Rep. Adam Schwadron
How he wins: Big margin with high turnout in St. Charles County, low turnout everywhere else.
Valentina Gomez
How she wins: The videos prove effective and she taps into the anger of the electorate. FYI: Yes it’s possible.
Jamie Corley
How she wins: She taps into that 20-25% of Republican primary voters who are tired of the burn it all down all the time Missouri Republican narrative.
State Treasurer: PRIMARY: LEAN MALEK GENERAL: SAFE Republican
State Treasurer Vivek Malek
How he wins: He spends and ground game work, the attacks don’t and he cruises to a comfortable win.
House Budget Chairman Rep. Cody Smith
How he wins: His late attacks on Malek work and he is the most viable alternative.
State Senator Andrew Koenig
How he wins: He benefits from Smith’s attacks on Malek and proves that you can door-knock your way to a statewide win.
Springfield Attorney Lori Rook
How she wins: She benefits from Smith’s attacks on Malek and takes advantage of being the only female in the field to a statewide win.
Scott Faughn is the publisher of The Missouri Times, owner of the Clayton Times in Clayton; SEMO Times in Poplar Bluff; and host of the only statewide political television show, This Week in Missouri Politics.
