Final Tip Sheet: House

  

This is the final tip sheet of the year, and we’ve moved a lot of seats around the board. We have tried to give you a half a dozen seats that will answer the biggest question on the House map: will the Republicans retain a veto-proof majority, and if so, by how much?

We moved some of the competitive races around the board and the biggest reason is the Trump landslide that seems to be building for Missouri. While Trump looks like he will overperform in the bootheel, Jefferson County and eastern Jackson County, he is not helping Republicans in Kirkwood, Webster Groves and maybe even Clay County.

We moved Rep. Kidd’s, Rep. Shaul’s, Rep. Vescovo’s, and Rep. Gannon’s re-elections to LIKELY R because of the strength of their money advantages, as well as the fact that these races are in areas of the state in which Trump is overperforming.

The two seats we moved back to LEAN D are the 91st and 92nd. Trump isn’t a huge help in these districts like he is in other races. However, the HRCC is spending money and is fully committed to these seats.

Two days out, and we have whittled it down to seven true toss-up races. By the time we reach these seven, we have 112 Republicans and 44 Democrats. When you look at these seven, Republicans currently hold five of the seven seats. With the combination of a potential Trump surge and some last minute attacks, we are currently are looking for 115 Republicans and 48 Democrats –  that’s assuming that if Rep. English or his opponent Jay Mosley win, they caucus with the Democrats.

house tip sheet graphic-Recovered

COMPETITIVE – 7

#1 HD 17 (D+4.3) OPEN (King) COMPETITIVE  – #1 last tip sheet

It’s been the most competitive seat in the primary, and now it’s the most competitive in the general. The pro-Right-to-Work Republicans covet this seat, and the Democrats have to get it. We’ve covered it from every angle and it stands exactly where we predicted throughout the cycle: too close to call.

(D) Mark Ellebracht

  • • Contributions this period: $61,635.00
  • • Contributions this election: $117,081.52
  • • Cash on hand: $41,591.88

(R) Mary Hill

maryformissouri.com @MaryforMissouri

  • • Contributions this period: $34,634.63
  • • Contributions this election: $103,627.43
  • • Cash on hand: $62,449.26

#2 HD 94 (D+2.5) – Brown COMPETITIVE  – #4 last tip sheet

Will Trump’s popularity break the seesaw back-and-forth in the 94th with a win for Rep. Brown? Will Sen. Sifton’s outstanding organization help Rep. Englund sweep back into office? We will see Tuesday night. Both parties are confident in this seat, and it will be the best indicator in the state about what type of night it will be.

(D) Vicki Englund

Vickieenglund.com @venglund

  • • Contributions this period: $33,320.00
  • • Contributions this election: $196,950.27
  • • Cash on hand: $22,000.62

(R) Rep. Cloria Brown

Cloriabrown.com @CloriaBrown

  • • Contributions this period: $9,890.00
  • • Contributions this election: $66,652.56
  • • Cash on hand: $15,542.10

#3 HD 14 (D+2.9) Corlew COMPETITIVE  – #3 last tip sheet

Because of the district, Rep. Corlew was going to have to run a great campaign to keep it tight. He did, and it’s tight. Rucker has done what he needed to do as well, and it’s anyone’s call. Maybe give Corlew an ever so slight edge on momentum.

(D) Martin Rucker

ruckerformissouri.com @RuckerSouthSide

  • • Contributions this period: $39,172.50
  • • Contributions this election: $183,331.12
  • • Cash on hand: $22,337.80

(R) Rep. Kevin Corlew

kevincorlew.com @KevinCorlew

  • • Contributions this period: $36,872.82
  • • Contributions this election: $134,632.06
  • • Cash on hand: $26,199.47

#4 HD 135 (R+1.9) OPEN (Hough) COMPETITIVE  – #6 ranked last tip sheet

This race was a sleeper for some time, mostly because conventional wisdom says that anything in Springfield is automatically Republican. Rep. Hough was a great candidate, and he still had competitive elections to hold the seat.

These are two good candidates, and Alberhasky has worked himself into a position to make the race a toss-up. Two good candidates, two good campaigns, and a competitive district makes for a fun election night while Shane Schoeller counts the ballots in Greene County.

(D) Randy Alberhasky

randyalberhasky.com @RandyAlberhasky

  • • Contributions this period: $26,131.42
  • • Contributions this election: $118,310.37
  • • Cash on hand: $1,826.47

(R) Steve Helms

stevehelms.net

  • • Contributions this period: $15,445.00
  • • Contributions this election: $128,225.16
  • • Cash on hand: $19,132.67

#5 HD 70 (D+0.07) OPEN (Otto) COMPETITIVE  – #10 ranked last tip sheet

We’ve been mentioning this race for some time now. It was always our view that DeLear would win and the 70th was a bit of a reach for HRCC, and that’s still likely. However, some last week opposition research of an old restraining order yielded Matthiesen an issue to hammer DeLear on in the closing hours. We still feel that DeLear has a slight advantage, but there is no way to predict how the final Matthiesen attack will land, so we will all have an interesting race to watch on election night.

(D) Byron DeLear

byrondelear.org @ByronDeLear

  • • Contributions this period: $32,425.00
  • • Contributions this election: $226,699.30
  • • Cash on hand: $27,688.37

(R) Mark Matthiesen

markmatthiesen.org

  • • Contributions this period: $12,265.00
  • • Contributions this election: $96,555.00
  • • Cash on hand: $20,264.71

#6 HD 47 (D+0.07) Basye COMPETITIVE  – #2 last tip sheet

Many Democrats have pinned their hopes on McClintic as their top recruit of the cycle, and she has lived up to the hype. One thing that no one could have predicted for most of the cycle was the Trump would not only fail to be a liability in the race but possibly help Bayse. Never forget the portions of Randolph and Howard Counties that are in the district, chock-full of Republican votes.

This race is a clear toss-up, but in the end it could be a top of the ticket slight shift that carries the day for either one. It will also be a very good indicator for 2018 on if HRCC picks a district that they are don’t going to lose can they hold it regardless of a top flight Democrat effort.

(D) Susan McClintic

susanforrep.com @SusanJMcClintic

  • • Contributions this period: $50,260.00
  • • Contributions this election: $127,508.00
  • • Cash on hand: $3,923.41

(R) Rep. Chuck Basye

chuckbasye47.com @ChuckBasye47

  • • Contributions this period: $9,491.66
  • • Contributions this election: $122,104.48
  • • Cash on hand: $55,125.60

#7 HD 68 (D+15.9) English COMPETITIVE – #9 last tip sheet

This race is anyone’s pick. The first question was whether Rep. English could put together the money, and he did. Now, the question becomes this: Can he get Democrats in the overwhelming district to vote for him as an independent?

While English has a way of getting all the attention in anything he does, don’t overlook Jay Mosley, a leader in the increasingly dominant Walton political machine. He is very talented, and this race is nearly impossible to predict.

(D) Jay Mosley

  • • Contributions this period: $1,200.00
  • • Contributions this election: $1,940.36
  • • Cash on hand: $1,914.61

(I) Rep. Keith English

@keithenglishmo

  • Contributions this period: $13,825.00
  • Contributions this election: $81,734.99
  • Cash on hand: $24,839.60

LEAN REPUBLICAN – 4

HD 44 (R+0.03) OPEN – Rowden LEAN REPUBLICAN

This race has been a top seat throughout the entire race, but with Trump doing much better in Boone County than expected, and the fact that HRCC has simply vastly outspent Pauley in the race, we see it leaning Republican heading into election day. If Pauley wins, look for it to be on the strength of a big Webber finish and a good night for Democrats.

(D) Tom Pauley

pauley44.com @PauleyforRep

  • • Contributions this period: $8,820.00
  • • Contributions this election: $30,125.56
  • • Cash on hand: $15,638.43

(R) Cheri Reisch

cheri44.com @CheriMO44

  • Contributions this period: $5,550.00
  • Contributions this election: $114,990.97
  • Cash on Hand: $7,525.50

HD 65 (D+0.03) OPEN – Zerr LEAN REPUBLICAN

This race may be tightening, and on election night, Democrats may wish they had targeted this race earlier. Heading into Tuesday, Hannegan has an advantage. Credit the HRCC for preparing for this race to tighten and putting Hannegan in a good position for the last two weeks.

(D) Kenny Biermann

  • Contributions this period: $6,040.00
  • Contributions this election: $23,845.12
  • Cash on hand: $7,080.96

(R) Tom Hannegan

tomhannegan.com @TomHannegan

  • Contributions this period: $15,375.00
  • Contributions this election: $174,211.55
  • Cash on hand: $7,119.78

HD 113 (D+4.8) Shaul LEAN REPUBLICAN

We have moved this race mostly because of the clear dominance of Donald Trump in Jefferson County. Berg is the best candidate for the Democrats to swipe a LEAN REPUBLICAN seat, but the money parity that HRCC has provided Shaul with – at last count nearly 40 mail pieces – has met the very impressive Berg campaign. This race was always going to be close, but we rate it LEAN REPUBLICAN on the massive strength of Trump in JeffCo.

(D) Karen Settlemoir-Berg

bergforchange.com

  • • Contributions this period: $41,575.00
  • • Contributions this election: $148,612.95
  • • Cash on hand: $64,007.60

(R) Rep. Dan Shaul

Voteshaul.com @danshaul113

  • • Contributions this period: $48,080.00
  • • Contributions this election: $200,840.24
  • • Cash on hand: $13,518.90

HD 117 (D+4.7) OPEN – Black LEAN REPUBLICAN

This is a tight race between two conservative candidates. However, HRCC has been dedicated to this seat as well as Rep. Engler. We have the seat leaning Republican, but it’s very close.

(D) Travis Barnes

@BarnesForMO

  • Contributions this period: $21,795.00
  • Contributions this election: $22,249.47
  • Cash on hand: $15,473.40

(R) Mike Henderson

  • Contributions this period: $9,625.00
  • Contributions this election: $51,336.57
  • Cash on hand: $16,350.80

LEAN DEMOCRAT – 3

HD 90 (R+0.06) Lavender LEAN DEMOCRAT

The Republicans must have seen some polling that they like, because they are back spending money in the 90th. While Trump has helped move some seats to LEAN REPUBLICAN in Jefferson County and the bootheel, he isn’t helping in Kirkwood. It’s still a seat that leans Democrat, but because of the partisan lean and Lavender’s ten years of running in the district, we give it a LEAN DEMOCRAT. However, keep an eye on this seat because of the strength of Milton as a candidate and the HRCC investment through election day.

(D) Rep. Deb Lavender

lavenderforstaterep.com @DebLavender

  • Contributions this period: $27,505.00
  • Contributions this election: $248,403.89
  • Cash on hand: $92,554.74

(R) Mark Milton

markmiltonmo.com @MarkMiltonMO

  • Contributions this period: $15,125.00
  • Contributions this election: $159,262.25
  • Cash on hand: $6,997.67

HD 91 (D+4.2) OPEN – Kirkton LEAN DEMOCRAT

Mueller could be the most impressive candidate to come up short this cycle, and HRCC is back in the district spending throughout election day. The wild card could be some of Unsicker’s tweets about law enforcement coming back to hurt her. Unsicker is the favorite heading into election day, but it’s our bet you haven’t heard the last of Mueller.

(D) Sarah Unsicker

unsickerformissouri.com @SarahUnsicker

  • Contributions this period: $19,870.00
  • Contributions this election: $109,199.77
  • Cash on hand: $27,103.39

(R) Greg Mueller

electgregmueller.com

  • Contributions this period: $2,300.00
  • Contributions this election: $77,751.64
  • Cash on hand: $10,598.78

HD 92 (D+3.7) OPEN – Monticello LEAN DEMOCRAT

The Republicans have been quietly optimistic about this seat for weeks now, and are fully invested in it. Beck is doing everything he can to win, but Bogle is an aggressive candidate who has earned the HRCC attention with his hard work. If the Republicans take a seat from the LEAN DEMOCRAT category, look for HD 92 to be the one. If it goes Republican, look for a big night for the GOP.

(D) Doug Beck

  • Contributions this period: $11,470.00
  • Contributions this election: $61,735.88
  • Cash on hand: $24,067.91

(R) Daniel Bogle

votebogle.com @DPBogle

  • Contributions this period: $8,868.79
  • Contributions this election: $67,706.67
  • Cash on hand: $1,006.47