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2016 Tip Sheet: October 2015

U.S. SENATE

Republicans

Senator Roy Blunt

Senator Blunt is an amazing tactician who can pound his opponent into the ground. In the 3rd quarter, he raised nearly twice his opponent’s fundraising numbers. Moreover, if Trump fades and the now-reconfirmed socialist U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders’ momentum grows, it may not matter what else happens. Blunt is doing everything a winning campaign needs to do and is getting helped from how many other vulnerable seats that will be more appealing to national Democrats there are.

Raised in Quarter: $1.2 million

Cash on Hand: $4.4 million

Campaign Manager: Andy Blunt

 

Democrats

Secretary of State Jason Kander

While Kander is unlikely to keep pace with Blunt on fundraising – and he didn’t this quarter, raising barely more than half of Blunt’s haul. However, the money race may be decided by whether the super PACs believe Kander can win. Maybe more to the point: how does his race compare against other potential pick up seats for Democrats? On that front, he is doing absolutely everything he can do to be in that conversation.

Raised in Quarter: $825k

Cash on Hand: $1.6 million

Campaign Manager: Abe Rakov

 

 

GOVERNOR

Republicans

Former Navy Seal Eric Greitens

Greitens has taken the race by storm and has the potential to reshape the entire election. His fundraising has been impressive since entering the race, and it’s becoming clear that he will raise more than any other Republican in the field. However, while he is compiling an impressive list of Missouri donors including Jeff Layman and Sarah & David Steelman, the bulk of his donations are from outside of the state and on the coasts.

With the combination of his resume and his fundraising ability, he could become the one to beat. However, before he is anointed the front runner status, he will have to answer questions about his transition from potential Democratic candidate to conservative outsider.

Raised in Quarter: $1.4 million

Cash on Hand: $2.2 million

Consultant: Victory Enterprises

 

Former House Speaker Catherine Hanaway

Hanaway has perhaps the most geographically diverse support of any candidate, and can thank a loyal team of former legislators who served with her in the House for that. She is the most competitive candidate thus far with Greitens, and has a very strong claim to the electability argument as the only woman in the field matching up against Attorney General Chris Koster. With a tumultuous winter behind her, she can now focus on moving forward.

Raised in Quarter: $166k

Cash on Hand: $1.5 million

Consultant: Axiom Strategies

 

Lt. Governor Peter Kinder

While significantly outraised in this quarter, he is still likely the frontrunner until someone knocks him off that perch. The three-time elected lt. governor will likely need less money to win than the others, and if it remains a five person race, he likely has the strongest support and the lower the number that it takes to win the primary the more likely Kinder wins it.

It should also be noted that he has attacked this campaign with a vigor that many close to him say they haven’t seen in years.

Raised in Quarter: $154k

Cash on Hand: $275k

 

Businessman John Brunner

He was the last to officially announce and did so with a series of web videos highlighting his service to the country. He is the only successful businessman in the race and has a record of military service that Greitens has. One advantage is his run in 2012 cultivated a large core of tea party supporters that are still loyal to him. He is the wild card in the race, as he has the military service and can afford to fund his campaign to match Greitens. How Brunner plays his cards may be the most interesting aspect of the primary.

Raised in Quarter: $276k

Cash on Hand: $256k

Consultant: Barklage & Knodell

 

Senator Bob Dixon

Senator Dixon has one advantage in the race, he is the only candidate from primary vote-rich southwest Missouri. Dixon is running hard right and is carving out a niche both in the state senate and the gubernatorial field as a statesman.

The challenge for him will always be raising the money to compete outside of southwest Missouri, but as a sitting senator and chairman of the judiciary committee, he has the opportunity to become a factor.

Raised in Quarter: $26k

Cash on Hand: $266k

 

Democrats

Attorney General Chris Koster

The story is the same as it has been since January, when the primary field was cleared for Koster. He amasses a war chest while the Republicans fight and spend their resources fighting each other.

The candidate who billed himself as “all prosecutor-no politics” is a former Republican who is the strongest Democrat running in an open seat red state race. Whoever wins the primary is likely to celebrate Labor Day as the underdog. Speaking of a series of ballot measures, including Mayor Slay’s minimum wage effort, the medical marijuana measure, and legislative Republicans stoking labor may help create subtle factors in the turnout model to blunt the Republican tilt to the state.

Raised in Quarter: $1.5 million

Cash on Hand: $5 million

 

 

Lt. GOVERNOR

Republicans

Senator Mike Parson

When incumbent Lt. Governor Peter Kinder announced he was running for governor, Parson moved quickly and has hit the ground running. Building off of his strong fundraising history as a senior senator and his statewide connections from the successful Right to Farm campaign, he has emerged as the front runner.

Raised in Quarter: $272k

Cash on Hand: $907k

 

Bev Randles

While she isn’t burning through her money, she isn’t raising much outside of the million dollar donation from Rex Sinquefield. She has many appealing attributes to Republican strategists being a women, having a Kansas City base, a network of connections from serving as the chair of the Missouri Club for Growth and being an African-American.

The challenge will be to use her $906,000 on hand to build on those attributes.

Raised in Quarter: $7k

Cash on Hand: $906k

Consultant: Turning Point Public Affairs

 

Democrats

Dr. Brad Bradshaw

The very quotable doctor and lawyer has shown his financial commitment to the race, and has told many Democrats he is willing to contribute more. Bradshaw, stemming from southwest Missouri, could be a candidate that adds some geographical balance to the Democratic statewide ticket. He certainly adds personality to it.

Raised in Quarter: $127k

Cash on Hand: $407k

 

Representative Tommie Pierson

Rep. Pierson is a serious candidate, being a minister and from the Ferguson-area, he is an ideal candidate to help unite and turnout African-American voters in the first election in some time where President Obama will not be front and center. His challenge will likely always be fundraising and the question is, can he compete against the other candidates, all of whom have proven to be good fundraisers?

Raised in Quarter: $13k

Cash on Hand: $23k

 

 

ATTORNEY GENERAL

Republicans

Senator Kurt Schaefer

Schaefer has had a great quarter, not withstanding the fundraising. He began the quarter questioning how much the state funded university that is in his senate district would subsidize his opponent, and ended exposing that university’s ties to Planned Parenthood and ultimately closing an abortion clinic also in his district. Quarters like that don’t come around often for candidates in Republican primaries.

On the fundraising front he ended the quarter with a 2 to 1 lead over his opponent, and received a $500,000 contribution from Rex Sinqufield just after the quarter ended. One the downside his opponent received a $500,000 donation from the state’s leading Right-to-Work supporter after Schaefer both voted for the bill and a house style PQ. With friends like those……who needs enemies?

Raised in Quarter: $146k (an additional $500k contribution arrived after the 30th)

Cash on Hand: $1.9 million

Consultant: Barklage & Knodell

 

University of Missouri Professor Josh Hawley

Hawley had an outstanding fundraising quarter built on the strength of the Humphries family’s $500,000 in contributions. He surpassed Brad Lager’s largest first quarter haul of any statewide candidate. Further Hawley isn’t starting at zero as earlier this year a not for profit paid for him to travel the state and build a base of contacts.

Hawley has also proved adept at keeping from being associated with his employer during their work to support Planned Parenthood’s performing of abortions, and earning a slew of Washington based publications and associations endorsements.

Raised in Quarter: $753k

Cash on Hand: $717k

 

Democrats

St. Louis County Assessor Jake Zimmerman

Zimmerman has two undeniable strengths, a track record of winning elections in primary vote rich St. Louis County and the ability to outraise his opponent. He stands today as the front runner in the race and is unlikely to be out worked by anyone.

He will likely remain the front runner as long as is able to effectively address questions surrounding some hearing on tax assessments in odd places. Either way, Zimmerman will have the money to answer any attacks, and the ability to launch a few of his own.

Raised in Quarter: $187k

Cash on Hand: $1 million

Consultant: Jim Ross

 

Former Cass County Prosecutor Teresa Hensley

Hensley entered the race just as State Senator Scott Sifton left it to run for re-election, picking up his endorsement. Hensley had a decent quarter, but will have to work hard to keep up with Zimmerman on the fundraising front.

Her advantage is that as woman in the Democratic primary she may only need to match him at 60 to 70 cents on the dollar to keep the race competitive.

Raised in Quarter: $161k

Cash on Hand: $151k

 

 

STATE TREASURER

Republicans

State Senator Eric Schmitt

As of today, Schmitt is the best bet on the list to win a statewide office in 2016. He has amassed a war chest that as of the end of the quarter was only surpassed by gubernatorial candidate Chris Koster.

He has an electoral advantage as a Republican his high name ID in the St. Louis media market after seven years as its most high-profile legislator. The bipartisan, nearly unanimous SB 5 coverage did not hurt either.

Many are beginning to view this race as a prelude to an eventual run for governor as much a lopsided run for State Treasurer. With no primary, the Democrats will need a huge wave to defeat Schmitt.

Raised in Quarter: $222k

Cash on Hand: $1.9 million

Consultant: Axiom Strategies, Barklage & Knodell

 

Democrats

Former State Department Official Pat Contreras

Conteras has hit the trail with a great deal of energy using a great deal of campaign technology. His campaign is making good use of social media and is doing what they can to ensure they could be in position should a Democratic wave arise. However, with as of now a 25 to 1 fundraising disadvantage he will need some help. Many Democrats were excited about the prospects of a Hispanic American on the statewide ticket, but some in the party never stopped looking for alternative candidates.

Win or lose Conteras is leaving a good impression on political landscape.

Raised in Quarter: $50k

Cash on Hand: $76k

Consultant: 3D Political

 

Former State Representative Judy Baker

After of rumors that she was considering running for statewide office she settled on running for State Treasurer relatively late in the quarter, and only had time to raise $24,000.

Baker will have a distinct advantage running as a woman in the Democratic primary and with the name ID from running previously. However, to be competitive she will have to mount a better fundraising effort than either time she ran in the past.

Raised in Quarter: $24k

Cash on Hand: $24k

 

 

SECRETARY OF STATE

Republicans

State Senator Will Kraus

Kraus has the look and the resume of a great candidate, and has handled several bills that relate to the Secretary of State’s office. However, the primary will be a dogfight from start to finish.

Kraus is unlikely to maintain the current fundraising gap with Ashcroft to win, but he will need to win the fundraising battle decisively. Also he will need to be on the road after session this spring to be at the local Lincoln Day circuit. This will likely be the down ballot primary to watch next August.

Raised in Quarter: $118k

Cash on Hand: $614k

Consultant: Axiom Strategies

 

Jay Ashcroft

Ashcroft has the ability to put together a nearly unbeatable primary campaign, being the son of former Governor, Senator, and United States Attorney General John Ashcroft.

He seems to be making the rounds and organizing a campaign operation, but the fundraising needs to pick up. Ashcroft doesn’t have to match Kraus in fundraising to win, but likely can’t be at a 7 to 1 disadvantage.

We understand that Ashcroft is beginning to address the fundraising component, and has put together an impressive event in Springfield early in the 4th quarter that will likely take in more than he currently has on hand.

Raised in Quarter: $35k

Cash on Hand: $88k

Consultant: Victory Enterprises

 

Democrats

Robyn Smith

Smith is a former news anchor in St. Louis who has family connections to several Democratic politicos. Raising $100k in the early months of her campaign shows viability that may keep the primary clear. That as well as many Democrats desire to have an African American on the ballot in November.

It remains to be seen whether Smith will take to politics as she did news, but she starts with a name ID advantage in the St. Louis market, and some momentum.

Raised in Quarter: $100k

Cash on Hand: $81k

 

 

STATE AUDITOR (2018)

State Auditor Nicole Galloway

This was her first full quarter in statewide office, but she didn’t raise a great deal of money. That can’t be said for some of her potential candidate such as House Speaker Todd Richardson who has over $300,000 on hand.

Raised in Quarter: $17k

Cash on Hand: $19k