The cycle in the Missouri Senate begins with a 24-10 Republican majority. Of the 17 returning senators, there are 10 returning Republican incumbents: Senators Bean, Brattin, Burger, Gregory 15, Gregory 21, Henderson, Hudson, Moon, Nicola, Schnelting, and 7 returning incumbent Democrats: Senators Beck, Lewis, Mosley, Nurrenbern, Roberts, Washington, and Webber.
Republicans are almost certain to hold SD 2, SD6, SD10, SD12, SD16, SD28, SD20, SD22, SD26, SD28, SD32, and SD34. While Democrats are just as certain to hold SD4, SD14, and SD24. After those predictable outcomes, the map will stand at 22-10.
SD8 and SD30 are the competitive races that, at this point, go either way, so as of the July reports, things stand at 22-10-2.
Here is the race-by-race breakdown ranked by the most competitive primary elections.
#1 SD 16 Senator Justin Brown is term-limited.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: TOSS UP
This race has moved up the ranks in part because SD34 and SD22 have moved down, and because the candidates are running hard.
The race begins in Pulaski County, which has a larger population than its number of primary voters due to the presence of a military base. Two candidates are currently in the running, including Rep. Don Mayhew, who has a strong record of electoral success and may be able to self-fund part of his campaign. The question is, would he self-fund? Well as of the publishing of this tipsheet he hasn’t filed his Q3 report.
Rep. Bill Hardwick’s military record and name ID make him a top contender. He has a strong record of raising money, and if he puts together enough money to tell the folks in SD16 about his war record, he could be the one who benefits most if Rep. Knight forgoes a run. He has Sophie Shore on his team, and this quarter raised $21,000 from a wide array of business PACs in his candidate committee. His PAC brought in $37,000 led by gaming interests. The bright spot of his quarter was a top-flight professional kickoff.
Former Rep. Hannah Kelly from Wright County, who starts with 14.3% of the vote and may have a head start on a Missouri Right to Life endorsement, raised $17,000 this quarter with checks from Will Scharf and Phil Melugin. She has met $75,000 cash on hand, and has Elijah Haahr working on her race.
Joe Steelman jumped into the race with a big kickoff event in Rolla and raised $14,500 this quarter in his candidate committee with mostly large checks, and his PAC got kicked off with a $50,000 check. He is the voice of the Rolla football Bulldogs and comes with a golden last name and as the only candidate from the eastern side of the district has the best geographic advantage.
As of now Rep. Jeff Knight hasn’t announced a run. He would be a tremendous candidate and an even better senator, but it looks ever more likely that he won’t run. If he doesn’t, that throws Laclede County and the largest primary vote prize up for grabs.
Joseph Steelman
Cash on Hand: $61,764.33
Steel Resolve PAC
Cash on Hand: $50,000.00
Candidate Loans: $10,000.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $111,764.33
Rep. Bill Hardwick
Cash on Hand: $185,092.05
Missouri Enterprise Fund
Cash on Hand: $84,004.39
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $269,096.44
Rep. Don Mayhew
Cash on Hand: $37,346.36
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $37,346.36
Rep. Hannah Kelly
Cash on Hand: $63,304.36
Accountability PAC
Cash on Hand: $5,994.17
Ester PAC
Cash on Hand: $6,591.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $75,889.53
#2 SD 28 Senator Sandy Crawford is term-limited.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: LEAN POLLITT
This race has moved up the competitiveness list as others have fallen. Rep. Brad Pollitt starts with several advantages including a bigger raised war chest, and the endorsement of outgoing Senator Sandy Crawford. He also has a pretty solid claim to around 43% of the vote in Pettis, Henry, and Benton Counties. Combine that with Senator Crawford’s support in Dallas and Polk’s 28% of the district and he begins as the favorite.
Dr. Alexander has run for office in the past, but to be fair it was a half-hearted attempt at CD7. He has ponied up $100,000 of his own money to the campaign, and has the advantage of no voting record. He is a legitimate candidate with an opportunity to win.
I would say it’s more likely than not that the field is set, but there is still recruiting going on and while another candidate wouldn’t shock me it would surprise me. At this point if there was a top contender getting in they would have probably surfaced by now. If another candidate runs where they are from might be more important to the eventual outcome than who they are.
Rep. Brad Pollitt
Cash on Hand: $125,367.56
Rocker P Brand PAC
Cash on Hand: $69,192.85
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $194,560.41
Dr. Sam Alexander
Cash on Hand: $188,940.05
Candidate Loans: $121,000.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $188,940.05
#3 SD 6 Senator Mike Bernskoetter is term-limited.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: TOSS UP
This has historically been a Cole County seat for decades. However, there is a new wrinkle in the maps in that Cole and Moniteau only represent 53.3% of the district. The last time it wasn’t represented by a Cole Countian was when Larry Rohbach took the race when the Cole County vote was split among several of their own.
Competing for those votes as of today are Rep. Rudy Veit, former Jefferson City Councilman Derrick Spicer, and former Army Ranger Jake Vogel. Rep. Veit will have the advantage of a larger area that he has represented than Spicer, and he has the ability to finance his own race if he chooses.
This quarter Spicer raised $16,720 into his candidate committee from several smaller donations including Ozzie Smith, and the Police Union several of those from a fundraiser from Senator David Gregory while his PAC raised $1,000. He has James Harris on his race.
Rep. Rudy Veit raised $9,400 this quarter from a few PACs and some local business leaders. He has Jon Ratliff in his race, and I would assume that of anyone who has loaned his campaign money on this list he is the most likely to actually spend his.
Jake Vogel is the son of former Senator Carl Vogel, who, after serving as an Army Ranger, runs his family’s Coca-Cola distributorship. He came out of the gate strong with a $165,500 quarter with a who’s who of Jefferson City names. This report was $165k of nearly all local donors, a huge fundraiser at Marc Ellinger’s home, and a huge report and after a very strong launch event Vogel is living up to the hype. He has Barklage and Axiom lined up on his campaign.
All three of these candidates are from Cole County meaning there is another 47% of the vote from the lake area. Former St. Charles County Rep. Chuck Gatschenberger is discussing running, but hasn’t raised any money. Camden County Presiding Commissioner Ike Skelton just pretty well slipped into trouble and could now consider running. If he does and remains the only candidate from the Lake then he is a serious contender if all three Cole County candidates stay in the race.
Chuck Gatschenberger
Cash on Hand: Limited Activity
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $ n/a
Rep. Rudy Veit
Cash on Hand: $322,171.13
Central Missouri Leadership PAC
Cash on Hand: n/a
Candidate Loans: $250,000.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $322,171.13
Councilman Derrick Spicer
Cash on Hand: $164,635.59
Spicer for Senate PAC
Cash on Hand: $4,095.00
Candidate Loans: $100,000.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $168,730.59
Jake Vogel
Cash on Hand:$137,253.98
Lead the Way PAC
Cash on Hand: $3,278.26
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $140,532.24
#4 SD 4 Sen. Karla May is term-limited.
GENERAL: SAFE DEMOCRAT PRIMARY: LEAN BUTZ
The SD4 race continues to get more interesting with each new candidate filing. The frontrunner out of the gate has been Rep. Steve Butz from South City who is now knocking on the door of a quarter million on hand.
Former Rep. Gina Mitten has a path to victory in a man vs. woman primary race, and it was set to be her gender advantage vs. Rep. Butz’s fundraising advantage. However, she caught a break when Armstrong Teasdale attorney Chris Clark joined the race and had a strong fundraising quarter. Whatever former Rep. Mitten’s advantage is against one man in a Democratic primary it grows against two.
There is also the unknown, which if Clark is going to be a legitimate candidate and thus far looks like it, seems to open the door to an African-American woman to have a clear path to win.
I’d bet this race moves up the list over down as the cycle unfolds.
Rep. Steve Butz
Cash on Hand: $162,923.44
Butz STL PAC
Cash on Hand: $70,040.81
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $232,964.25
Gina Mitten
Cash on Hand: $74,165.86
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $74,165.86
Chris Clark
Cash on Hand: $42,705.85
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $42,705.85
#5 SD 18 Senator Cindy O’Laughlin is term-limited.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: LEAN GRAFF
This race will be an interesting one. You have Mr. Northeast Missouri agriculture Rep. Sharpe, the burn it all down Dusty Blue, and the farm girl with incredible connections Sarah Graff.
Rep. Sharpe raised $47,100 with $20,000 in loans this quarter to raise his total to $110,000. Mostly from small donors, but several agriculture groups as well. The question will be can he raise enough money to expand his base to the population centers of the district.
Dusty Blue $1,450 this quarter with $1,000 of that from fellow senate candidate Jim Avery. Blue is a veteran and business owner who apparently made an unsuccessful run for school board in ‘23.
Sarah Graff has both Sam Graves and Roy Blunt on her resume combined with having Aaron Baker and Axiom on her team and the endorsement of the incumbent senator Cindy O’Laughlin. She raised $20,000 in her candidate committee from a collection of power players from Guy Black, to Adam Gresham, to Mark Schwartz. She raised $27,000 in her PAC primarily from the Kampeters.
Graff starts off with the lead in fundraising, and a vast network throughout the district. She is the favorite, but Rep. Sharpe is a legitimate contender in this race. Blue ponied up $100,000 to loan his campaign, it will be interesting to see if his brand sells in northwest Missouri.
Sarah Graff
Cash on Hand: $66,762.03
Rural Missouri Values
Cash on Hand: $28,100.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $94,862.03
Rep. Greg Sharpe
Cash on Hand: $28,815.63
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $28,815.63
Candidate loans: $115,000
Dusty Blue
Cash on Hand: $99,792.79
Candidate Loans: $100,000.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $99,792.79
#6 SD 14 Senator Brian Williams is term-limited.
GENERAL: SAFE DEMOCRAT PRIMARY: LEAN PROUDIE
The race to replace the most talented Democrat in the state will be a hot one, just as it was eight years ago. This race has moved up due to the entry of former state Rep. John Bowman who is a possible frontrunner for this seat. Bowman saw a good start to his first quarter in the race and raised $52,000 from a group of unions, Maxine Clark, Jim Onder, and Bob Clark. His PAC also brought in $4,700. Rep. Raychel Proudie has been in the race since session ended and she too is a possible frontrunner at this time. Her name ID from running her House campaigns and her fundraising contacts have given her a head start for her war chest.
There is also a very competitive potential field with Joe Palm, who has worked in the White House on his resume and has all the ability to be a top-flight contender. Shaunte Duncan, an ally of Senator Roberts, is also running. She has the potential to also make this a very, very competitive field.
Joe Palm
Cash on Hand: $7,280
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $7,280
Shaunte Duncan
Cash on Hand: $12,363.97
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $12,363.97
Rep. Raychel Proudie
Cash on Hand: $37,002.24
PROUD PAC
Cash on Hand: $7,881.46
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $
Former Rep. John Bowman
Cash on Hand: $35,577.47
Come Back PAC
Cash on Hand: $4,506.27
Total Cash on Hand: $40,083.74
Candidate loans: $20,000
Rep. Doug Clemens
Cash on Hand: $19,663.78
Cash on Hand: $19,663.78
#7 SD 8 Senator Mike Cierpiot is term-limited.
PRIMARY: LIKELY PATTERSON GENERAL: (With Patterson) LEAN REPUBLICAN (Without Patterson) LEAN DEMOCRAT
For some time people have said House Speaker Jon Patterson is the future of the Missouri Republican Party, and this fundraising quarter is startling proof of that.
This race is pretty easy to handicap. Patterson has a very real primary from former Rep. Dan Stacy. Stacy could absolutely win this primary if Patterson isn’t laser-focused on it. On paper Stacy looks swamped in money, and he is, but Stacy is a worker who will knock doors and eastern Jack is becoming known for giving frontrunners fits.
If Patterson takes the primary seriously, then he should win it. If he wins it then he is the frontrunner in the general election. For Patterson this primary might be more difficult than the general.
His general election opponent will be the very talented Rep. Keri Ingle. She gets to stand back and watch this primary unfold. If it’s Ingle vs. Patterson this is the #2 race in the fall. If it’s Ingle vs. Stacy it becomes the #1 race in the fall. You wonder if Ingle or her supporters will put any money behind Stacy. That strategy worked for another strong-willed Jackson County woman in 2012.
House Speaker Jon Patterson put together one of the most impressive fundraising quarters in off-year Q3 Missouri political history. He raised $213,000 from so many donors it’s nearly impossible to distinguish a pattern. While his PAC took in a massive $515,000. Fundraising of this magnitude takes an amazing combination of reputation, political skill, and a lot of hard work. It’s a Mona Lisa of a report.
Former Rep. Dan Stacy raised $11,000 this quarter from a collection of small donations and two max checks from Trevor Stacy, and Karen Spalding.
Rep. Keri Ingle raised an impressive $92,000 in her candidate committee from several unions, a few healthcare PACs, and DOUG PAC, but mostly a huge number of small donations. KERI PAC raised $4,900 this quarter.
Rep. Keri Ingle
Cash on Hand: $168,186.54
KERI PAC
Cash on Hand: $31,902.00
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $200,088.54
Former Rep. Dan Stacy
Cash on Hand: $12,525.96
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $12,525.96
House Speaker Jon Patterson
Cash on Hand: $468,452.66
Missouri Alliance PAC
Cash on Hand: $1,687,856.28
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $2,156,309.24
#8 SD 22 Sen. Mary Elizabeth Coleman is not seeking re-election.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: LIKELY AVERY
This race went from #1 to #8 when Rep. Casteel chose not to make the race, and the tragic death of Rep. Ken Waller. Former Rep. Jim Avery has taken this race by storm, but not by throwing bombs at his potential opponents, but rather by winning them over and turning potential rivals into supporters.
I suppose it’s still possible that the business community finds a candidate to make a stand in SD22, but I’m starting to doubt it.
Avery posted an $81,000 quarter. Raising money mostly $1,000 at a time from trial lawyers from all around the state. While his PAC got kicked off with a $5,000 check from J&J.
Rep. Renee Reuter still has her candidate committee trained to run in SD22, but several folks in JeffCo are encouraging her to seek a judgeship.
Rep. Renee Reuter
Cash on Hand: $5,043.59
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $5,043.59
Fmr. Rep. Jim Avery
Cash on Hand: $330,977.17
Make JeffCo Great Again PAC
Cash on Hand: $5,100
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $336,077.17
Candidate Loans: $200,050.00
#9 SD 20 Senator Curtis Trent is seeking re-election.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: LIKELY TRENT
This primary could be the biggest upset of the cycle or a nothingburger. I’m really not sure how you get to the right of Senator Trent, but ‘24 Treasurer candidate Lori Rook is going to try. Whether this race becomes something to pay attention to or not will likely come down to how much of Rook’s own money does she spend early to try and attract trial attorney money to help her.
Senator Trent raised $108,000 from most of the top Republican donors of Springfield and a large number of small donors from his district. While Trent’s PAC raised an impressive $128,000 from the Monheisers, Rex Sinquefield, and S&K.
Lori Rook raised $19,500 this quarter from several small donors and her family as well as putting $100,000 of her own money. If I had to guess, Rook plans on funding a good portion of this campaign herself and hopes to get a competitive poll to tempt the trial attorneys into putting her over the top.
Rook is talented and has the resources to make this a race, but until more is seen the clear favorite heading into the new year is Senator Trent.
Sen. Curtis Trent
Cash on Hand: $215,987.00
417 PAC
Cash on Hand: $348,056.68
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $564,043.68
Lori Rook
Cash on Hand: $116,954.06
Candidate loans: $100,000
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $116,954.06
#10 SD 34 Senator Tony Luetkemeyer is term-limited.
GENERAL: LIKELY REPUBLICAN
This race plummeted from #2 on our list to #10 when Rep. Brenda Shields bowed out of the race. Kansas City Councilman Nathan Willett combined a stellar campaign kickoff, which was attended by Governor Kehoe with a very impressive fundraising quarter. His candidate committee brought in a stunning $130,165 with a very impressive amount of local donors including Corb Maxwell, the Clarksons, and Ryan and Jennifer Julian. His PAC brought in $140,000 this quarter from Bill Mann, the heavies, and $100,000 from Herzog. His quarter was massively impressive and by far one of the most impressive quarters of any non-incumbent senator.
Rep. Sean Pouche is a big personality with a legacy name and will be a legitimate contender. In order to make that happen he will have to bump up his fundraising to keep pace.
Rep. Sean Pouche
Cash on Hand: $30,825.64
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $30,825.64
Kansas City Councilman Nathan Willett
Cash on Hand: $152,106.23
NextGen North PAC
Cash on Hand: $175,627.10
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $327,733.33
#11 SD 32 Senator Jill Carter is seeking re-election
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: LIKELY CARTER
Sen. Jill Carter
There isn’t officially a primary in SD32, but House Budget Chairman Dirk Deaton is making pretty overt indications that he is seriously considering challenging his senator.
Senator Carter is everywhere in the district, and won’t suffer from a lack of visibility. On the fundraising front she raised $11,000 into her candidate committee from a host of business interests and Lance Beshore. Into her PAC she raised $18,500 from a large collection of various business interests. She will need it all if she does in fact have a primary challenge as Rep. Deaton has nearly $300,000 on hand.
One thing of note is that her senate colleagues have been rallying around Senator Carter with a fundraiser headlined by Senator Bean last month.
Sen. Jill Carter
Cash on Hand: $31,427.58
Show Me Values PAC
Cash on Hand: $37,830.38
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $69,257.96
Rep. Dirk Deaton
Cash on Hand: $167,223.10
Old McDonald PAC
Cash on Hand: $127,090
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $294,313.10
#12 SD 30 Senator Lincoln Hough is term-limited.
PRIMARY: LIKELY STINNETT GENERAL: TOSS UP
This race will be the #1 election in the fall, but it’s still unclear if Rep. Stinnett will have a primary next summer before the main event. ‘22 senate candidate Brian Gelner has been mulling a run, and he would be a top-tier challenger. However, it is getting late, and Rep. Stinnett has made very good use of the time she has had the field to herself.
On the financial front Rep. Stinnett raised $54,000 in her candidate committee, and $56,000 in her PAC from a collection of healthcare donors, gaming, law enforcement, business interests, and Rex Sinquefield. She also has a very active small donor operation that should continue to pay off throughout the race. That combined with loaning herself another $200,000 for a total loan of $250,000 rounds out a nice quarter.
Rep. Betsy Fogle gets to sit back and see if there will be Republican primary drama and bank her money. Speaking of that money she raised $87,000 in her candidate committee from an astounding number of small donors and several union contributions. While on the PAC side she brought in $10,000. In contrast to Rep. Stinnett she has no debt.
Obviously Rep. Stinnett would love to avoid a primary, and it’s starting to get late to see one launch, but either way this will be the biggest general election in the entire state in November.
Rep. Melanie Stinnett
Cash on Hand: $254,265.45
Heart of SGF PAC
Cash on Hand: $85,392.00
Candidate Loans: $250,000
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $339,657.45
Rep. Betsy Fogle
Cash on Hand: $229,530.29
Forward PAC
Cash on Hand: $74,811.57
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $304,341.86
#13 SD 2 Senator Nick Schroer is seeking re-election.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Sen. Nick Schroer
Senator Schroer was always going to be re-elected. It showed a higher level of political skill to not only fend off a primary challenge, but enlarge his circle while doing so.
Cash on Hand: $88,010.32
1776 PAC
Cash on Hand: $314,903.06
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $402,913.38
#14 SD 12 Senator Rusty Black is seeking re-election.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Sen. Rusty Black
No one is beating, or even seriously challenging the new Senate Appropriations Chairman in the GREAT northwest.
Cash on Hand: $186,332.00
Great Northwest PAC
Cash on Hand: $93,909.10
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $280,241.10
#15 SD 24 Senator Tracy McCreery is seeking re-election.
GENERAL: SAFE DEMOCRAT
Sen. Tracy McCreery
A much bigger question that whether she is re-elected is whether the Democrats can convince her to run for higher office.
Cash on Hand: $331,236.31
Serve Missouri
Cash on Hand: $142,813.10
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $474,049.41
#16 SD 26 Senator Ben Brown is seeking re-election.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Sen. Ben Brown
Senator Brown will cruise to re-election. It’s not too late for him to see a primary, but at this point it would be much more likely to be a nuisance than a serious threat.
Cash on Hand: $102,449.14
BB Freedom Fund
Cash on Hand: $101,581.15
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $204,030.27
Top donor: Rex Sinquefield
#17 10 Senator Travis Fitzwater is seeking re-election.
GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Sen. Travis Fitzwater
Senator Fitzwater is maintaining his spot as the safest call on the board. He continues building a warchest, and it makes him less likely to have to use it.
Cash on Hand: $124,535.20
Kingdom Leadership PAC
Cash on Hand: $128,735.76
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $253,270.96
