2026 COMPETITIVE SENATE RACES
#30 SD7 R+1.62% Senator Hough will be term-limited.
GENERAL: TOSS-UP
When Senator Hough leaves the senate in 2026 he will leave as a big figure not only in the capitol but back home in Springfield as well. The race to replace him will be the top general election race in 2026.
The democrats have been consistently rallying in the city of Springfield and now hold three house seats. The leader of this resurgence has been House Minority Leader Crystal Quade. She likely runs for Governor in 2024, but it’s an uphill battle, and if she loses she would be available and have a thick list of donors to run for state senate in 2026.
The Republicans have a unique challenge. They will have to have someone who can speak to moderate Republicans who are becoming Springfield Democrats. Rep. Alex Riley is someone who can win votes, but his time in the house might make it a tougher road than someone who could plan a senate run from the start. Particularly a woman, such as Rep. Melanie Stinnett. She can raise money, has run in a competitive race, and fits the mold of someone who could hold this very competitive district.
Rep. Melanie Stinnet
Total Raised this Cycle: $604
Cash on Hand: $5,087
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $5,087
Rep. Crystal Quade
Total Raised this Cycle: $5,359
Cash on Hand: $68,565
CRYSTAL PAC
Cash on Hand: $33,596
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $102,161
#8 SD7 R+5.82% Senator Cierpiot will be term limited.
GENERAL: TOSS-UP
Senator Cierpiot will leave big shoes to fill when he leaves the state senate in 2026. There will be a hyper-competitive primary on the Republican side that is shaping up to be between Reps. Coleman and Stacey with the very talented Rep. Keri Ingle likely to be awaiting the winner in the general.
The biggest factors in this race will be the political trends of the district and if there is a primary and how brutal it is.
Areas such as Lee’s Summit have been trending more Democratic since Trump was elected in ‘16 and even slightly before then. While the district is a +5% Republican district it’s likely to be less so in three years. The biggest factor in that would be who is the president. If it’s the 6th year of a Biden administration that bodes well for the Republicans, if it’s the 6th year of a Trump administration the Republicans will struggle to hold this seat.
If the Democrats avoid a primary and the Republicans do then they start out in the lead. It looks likely the Democrats can avoid a primary but the Republicans won’t be able to. That will leave the winner broke with a lot of angry activists on the other side.
It’s too soon to handicap it, but any race in the suburbs is very susceptible to national trends.
Rep. Jeff Coleman
Total Raised this Cycle: $0.00
Cash on Hand: $15,292
N/A
Cash on Hand: N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $15,292
Rep. Dan Stacy
Total Raised this Cycle: $0.00
Cash on Hand: $4,589
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $4,589
Rep. Keri Ingle
Total Raised this Cycle: $677
Cash on Hand: $47,006
KERI PAC
Cash on Hand: N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $47,006
2024 COMPETITIVE HOUSE RACES
Republicans
#1 HD 105 R+ 4.34 Schwardron ‘22 vote percentage 49.39%
Total Raised this Cycle: $1,000
Cash on Hand: $1,247
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $1,247
#2 HD 17 Allen R+ 7.14 ‘22 vote percentage 50.2%
Total Raised this Cycle: $500
Cash on Hand: $1,479
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $1,479
#3 HD 69 Schnelting R+ 13.22 ‘22 vote percentage 50,73%
Total Raised this Cycle: $16,670
Cash on Hand: $58,027
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $58,027
#4 HD 101 Keathley R+ 2.44 ‘22 vote percentage 52.7%
Total Raised this Cycle: $160
Cash on Hand: $20,278
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $20,278
#5 HD 97 Casteel R+ 23.84 ‘22 vote percentage 54.46%
Total Raised this Cycle: $0.00
Cash on Hand: $15,916
Casteel PAC
Cash on Hand: $7,365
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $23,281
#6 HD 106 Wilson R+ 1.12 ‘22 vote percentage 54.55%
Total Raised this Cycle: $1,830
Cash on Hand: $80
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $80
Democrats
#1 HD 34 Stricker D+ 4.52 ‘22 vote percentage 50.14%
Total Raised this Cycle: $
Cash on Hand: $
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $
#2 HD 92 Burton D+ 7.00 ‘22 vote percentage 51.15%
Total Raised this Cycle: $4,270
Cash on Hand: $6,884
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $6,884
#3 HD 29 Crossley D+ 1.94 ‘22 vote percentage 52.07%
Total Raised this Cycle: $400
Cash on Hand: $1,379
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $1,379
#4 HD 12 Johnson D+ 7.30 ‘22 vote percentage 52.11%
Total Raised this Cycle: $2,813
Cash on Hand: $10,349
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $10,349
#5 HD 47 Plank ‘22 D+ 6.26 vote percentage 52.16%
Total Raised this Cycle: $4,359
Cash on Hand: $6,391
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $6,391
#6 HD 21 Sauls ‘22 vote percentage 52.21% (SENATE SD 11)
Total Raised this Cycle: $2,532
Cash on Hand: $33,969
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $33,969
#7 HD 14 Aune D+ 9.84 ‘22 vote percentage 53.19%
Total Raised this Cycle: $169
Cash on Hand: $33,318
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $33,318
#8 HD15 D+11.62% Rep. Maggie Nurrenbern is running for senate in 2024.
Neurrenbern ‘22 vote percentage: 53.35%
#9 HD93 Bridget Walsh Moore D+ 8.46 ‘22 vote percentage 54.63%
Total Raised this Cycle: $1,150
Cash on Hand: $31,876
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $31,876
#10 HD50 Rep. Douglas Mann D+ 20.72 ‘22 vote percentage 55.12%
Total Raised this Cycle: $2,360
Cash on Hand: $9,375
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $9,375
Scott Faughn is the publisher of The Missouri Times, owner of the Clayton Times in Clayton; SEMO Times in Poplar Bluff; and host of the only statewide political television show, This Week in Missouri Politics.
