Final Tip Sheet: Senate

   

The senate races this cycle are being fought on the Democrats’ turf. The latest Remington poll has given the Democrats something to complain about, as it shows Rowden catching Webber at 45 percent. There’s also something worrying for Republicans with Sifton’s 9 percent lead on Jotte.

Democrats have to be a little disappointed that Clinton isn’t doing better in the 19th, while Republicans have to be a little let down by Trump’s lack of coattails in the 1st and 11th.

Right now, we don’t see a Trump wave being big enough to defeat Sifton, nor do we see a Trump tsunami coming to defeat Rizzo. However, we are seeing that Trump may give Rowden a boost, which might make the 19th too close to call.

COMPETITIVE – 1

SD 19 (D+0.7) OPEN – Schaefer COMPETITIVE

There has been a narrative that Webber was building a significant lead in the race while the Rowden camp said they would peak at the right time. One poll Friday showed the race tied at 45 percent each. Trump hasn’t tanked in the 19th and that has to be one reason why, as well as the full commitment by Senate Republicans funding the race. Conventional wisdom says that Webber may have a slight lead, but Rowden feels very good about where he is on election night. Sometimes, these heavyweight title fights don’t match the hype; this one does.

(D) Rep. Stephen Webber

votewebber.com @s_webber

  • Contributions this period: $219,800.00
  • Contributions this election: $689,768.17
  • Cash on hand: $43,268.17

(R) Rep. Caleb Rowden

calebrowden.com @CalebRowden

  • Contributions this period: $604,272.00
  • Contributions this election: $1,517,183.40
  • Cash on hand: $334,068.76

LEAN DEMOCRAT – 1

SD 1 (D+5.1) – Sifton LEAN DEMOCRAT

The last Remington poll showing Senator Sifton up 9 percent has validated what many have seen: Trump is likely to overperform a typical Republican in the 1st, but his coattails can be hit and miss.

It looks like they are missing Sifton for now. He could still lose as Dr. Jotte has a very well-run campaign with a strong field operation, but Sifton has the advantage heading into Election Day.

(D) Sen. Scott Sifton

scottsifton.com @scottsifton

  • Contributions this period: $137,405.00
  • Contributions this election: $2,047,257.84
  • Cash on hand: $247,708.65

(R) Randy Jotte

randyjotte.com @randyjotte

  • Contributions this period: $378,937.00
  • Contributions this election: $740,772.86
  • Cash on hand: $85,587.27

LIKELY DEMOCRAT 1

SD11 (D+8.9) OPEN – LeVota LIKELY DEMOCRAT

This race is the one that would make the Republicans truly dominant, and they have spent some of that $250,000 they sent to Western Missouri. They dropped four negative mail pieces on Rizzo, and one positive one for Lasater. We don’t see it being enough, unless the Trump wave is larger than anticipated.

(D) Rep. John Rizzo

johnrizzo.org @johnjrizzo

  • Contributions this period: $71,052.00
  • Contributions this election: $134,064.66
  • Cash on hand: $70,339.00

(R) Brent Lasater

brentlasaterforsenate.vpweb.com @Rep53

  • Contributions this period: $19,790.00
  • Contributions this election: $30,894.28
  • Cash on hand: $18,950.99