July 2018 Tip Sheet: Statewides and State Senate

  

One Month Out

Primary Election Edition

As always, the tip sheet tries to lay out the most accurate view of Missouri’s political landscape. In past cycles, Missouri was a ticket-splitting bellwether state, but today, Missouri is a Republican state and Missourians are much less likely to split their tickets.

The speculation is that Missouri now starts cycles somewhere between 3 percent to 5 percent Republican and national tides move the number from there. Having the White House will provide a tailwind to Republicans, but with President Donald Trump coming off a historic 19 percent win, they can stand a gale-force tailwind.

U.S. Senator McCaskill has always run better than most Democrats, and with a Republican president in office, she will have to because just as the Republican base was in some ways divided, Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy retired. Now there will be a fall vote on his replacement that will put abortion rights at the top of the debate and no doubt unite the ardently anti-abortion Republican base.

The state auditor’s race looks like it’s coming down to David Wasinger’s financial advantage outpacing Paul Curtman’s grassroots campaign.

 

U.S. SENATE

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

TIP SHEET PREDICTION: LIKELY HAWLEY

There just hasn’t been a primary challenger to Attorney General Hawley that has been able to set himself apart from the rest of the field to become Hawley’s primary challenger. Hawley will very likely win the primary. While he will likely have a huge win over his nearest competitor, there is likely to be an abnormally large number of primary voters who will vote for another candidate.

There are several factors to this starting with right-to-work being on the ballot in August. It would have created a serious tailwind in a general election, but he has been an outspoken supporter of right-to-work, so some union members who show up just to vote against right-to-work are likely to vote against the only candidate they have heard of who has supported it.

Also, there is the ladders ad, which is a reasonable attack that his opponents can gain traction from. Furthermore, there are some inside the Republican base that wanted him in his role of Attorney General to only investigate Democrats and shy away from investigating a Republican in Eric Greitens.

While the factors of not having right-to-work on the ballot in November, he’s already overcoming attacks stemming from his ladders ad, and his showing that he would do his job as Attorney General impartially regardless of what party someone was in will all be helpful in the general election, they could add up to a smaller than normal amount of votes for a party front-running in August.

Of his opponents, Courtland Sykes, seems to have a message that would resonate as a challenger who has never held office, and his now stressing his Navy credentials. However, he hasn’t demonstrated a fundraising or grassroots results that would set him apart.

Former Libertarian presidential candidate Austin Petersen has put together a seemingly impressive grassroots operation but has not been able to show the fundraising prowess to capitalize on it and set himself apart from Monetti. There is also the matter of some less than flattering quotes about President Trump that could come back to haunt him if his campaign became a threat to the front-runner.

Tony Monetti has shown some fundraising ability and has a message that could resonate combined with his resume he could be in a good position should Hawley stumble. He even received the endorsement of Sarah Palin.

This primary has a front-runner with dramatically higher name id and a huge fundraising advantage. Also, Sykes and Monetti have the problem of their primary message is that Hawley is a poor candidate and that they are strongest supporters in the race of President Donald J. Trump. However, President Donald J. Trump has endorsed Josh Hawley.

If Hawley stumbles it’s likely the establishment support goes to Monetti, but of the three Peterson seems better to mount an insurgent campaign against Hawley, but both scenarios are long shots.

Bottom line, something will have to be a huge game changer for Hawley to lose.

(R) Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley
Contributions this election: $820,760.00
Expenditures: $38,000.00
Cash on hand: $782,000.00

(R) Courtland Sykes
Contributions this election: N/A
Expenditures: N/A
Cash on hand: N/A

(R) Tony Monetti
Contributions this election: $163,283.00
Expenditures: $86,763.00
Cash on hand: $76,519.00

(R) Austin Petersen
Contributions this election: N/A
Expenditures: N/A
Cash on hand: N/A

 

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

TIP SHEET PREDICTION: SAFE McCASKILL

It set the tone for the campaign when Senator McCaskill navigated a changing Democratic electorate to avoid a primary. It will be interesting to see how she balances angering her base that could come from voting for Trump’s Supreme Court nominee against angering voters who are willing to vote for Missouri Democrats who supported President Trump in 2016.

Bottom line, the liberal urban base of her party is changing and it is a testament to her political skill that she avoided a primary.

(D) U.S. Senator Claire McCaskill
Contributions this election: $7,173,566.00
Expenditures: $2,873,965.00
Cash on hand: $5,117,810.00

 

STATE AUDITOR

 

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

TIP SHEET PREDICTION: LEAN WASINGER

The Republican primary changed when House Speaker Todd Richardson chose to forego the race last year. It left the race to David Wasinger, the husband of highly respected St. Louis County Council member Colleen Wasinger, a CPA and an attorney from St. Louis County; Rep. Paul Curtman, a St. Louis County legislator and Marine; Sandra McDowell, a Jefferson City attorney; and Ballwin Alderman Kevin Roach.

The race seems to be coming down to Wasinger and Curtman. McDowell has the political talent to compete but things haven’t come together as of yet for her effort, and Roach is a talented candidate who is probably learning a great deal to set himself up in the future.

Wasinger has the enormous financial advantage and the support of much more high-profile Republicans than Curtman. However, Curtman has an impressive grassroots network.

I get it “grassroots” is always how candidates who are broke and going to lose describe their campaigns. However, in Curtman’s case, he really does have a large grassroots network that could be an asset in this race.

The bottom line probably comes down to can Curtman cut Wasinger’s financial lead to something like 2 to 1 and not 5 to 1. If he does, this race is a tossup. Until he has the financial resources to build upon his grassroots network the race is leaning toward Wasinger.  

(R) David Wasinger
Contributions this period: $68,576
Contributions this election: $837,875.83
Cash on hand: $745,656.60

(R) State Representative Paul Curtman
Contributions this period: $6,218
Contributions this election: $62,915.42
Cash on hand: $41,889.13

(R) Saundra McDowell
Contributions this period: $10,153
Contributions this election: $10,831.48
Cash on hand: $2,394.02

(R) Kevin Roach
Contributions this period: $4,375
Contributions this election: $5,093.27
Cash on hand: $5,036.81

 

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

TIP SHEET PREDICTION: SAFE GALLOWAY

Like McCaskill, Galloway could have seen a primary emerge. After all, she was appointed to the job by Governor Nixon. However, a combination of hard work and her doing a seemingly good job has avoided a serious challenge in August.

Bottom line, Galloway did good work avoiding a primary for an office that she was appointed to.

(D) State Auditor Nicole Galloway
Contributions this period: $234,556.92
Contributions this election: $1,329,765.47
Cash on hand: $1,002,388.06

 

ST. LOUIS COUNTY EXECUTIVE

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

TIP SHEET PREDICTION: LIKELY STENGER

Everyone in St. Louis County was hyping this race as a heavyweight fight between a labor-supported County Executive and a bottomless-pocketed businessman who was supported by the Post-Dispatch.

However, a few things have complicated that situation that has left the race with a wide gap with only a few weeks remaining. First of all, the incumbent County Executive Steve Stenger was the face of an effort to raise a half-cent sales tax to support county law enforcement that passed overwhelmingly. Second, his opponent businessman Mark Mantovani made a $20,000 donation to…Eric Greitens in his campaign for Governor. Third, the Republican legislature moved the Right-to-Work referendum to August.

Stenger will greatly benefit from labor’s get-out-to-vote effort in St. Louis County to defeat Right-to-Work, he has a huge fundraising advantage and a big lead in the polls with just a few weeks out from election day.

Mantovani does have the Post-Dispatch lock, stock, and barrel supporting him by attacking Stenger weekly and a big campaign war chest, but as of now, it hasn’t moved the needle. Mantovani needs something to change the trajectory of this race. As of now, it’s trending towards a Stenger victory.

Bottom line, Stenger is doing extremely well in a race against a well-funded first-time candidate outpacing both Mantovani’s wallet and the Post-Dispatch.

(D) St. Louis County Executive Steve Stenger
Contributions this period: $406,250.00
Contributions this election: $2,401,293.27
Cash on hand: $2,332,031.66

(D) Mark Mantovani
Contributions this period: $355,906.00
Contributions this election: $905,844.18
Cash on hand: $895,002.98

 

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

St. Louis County businessman and former candidate for state Representative and Congress Paul Berry is running on the Republican side facing a nominal challenger in what will be an uphill fight for any Republican in November.

 

STATE SENATE

We have broken the state Senate races up between three categories, the hottest primaries, the general elections, and the Senators returning. As of today, the state Senate, including Lauren Arthur, is 24 Republicans and 10 Democrats. As of today, we would predict that there are two competitive districts in November in the 22nd and the 34th as well as potentially competitive races in the 8th and the 30th. We would predict a state Senate of 23 Republicans, 10 Democrats, and 1 tossup.

 

COMPETITIVE PRIMARIES

 

SD 34 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

TIP SHEET PREDICTION: TOSS UP

(R+0.8) Senator Rob Schaaf is term-limited.

Isn’t the 34th always the hottest primary every 8 years? Senator Schaaf won an eerily similar primary 8 years ago against a Platte County opponent. Tony Luetkemeyer is a stellar recruit, he is an attorney who graduated from MU and built a huge fundraising lead with his connections with the Herzog family and the pretty open support of former Governor Greitens.

It’s a testament to Luetkemeyer’s hard work that he raised such a large sum of money before Greitens was no longer able to help.

The Presiding Commissioner of Buchanan County, Harry Roberts, has the base of his home county where he is probably more widely known that Schaaf when he won the Buchanan vs. Platte County battle. He has seen help from some current state Senators and former U.S. Senators Ashcroft and Bond. He is going to be outspent, but he has been closing the money gap.

In a sign of how bitter this primary is and how far some are willing to go to win this seat the Democrat elected Buchanan County Assessor was recruited to run, but eventually dropped out as it was just too obvious of a ploy to siphon Roberts votes.

Speaking of geography, the incredibly hot primary in 2010 that Senator Schaaf won saw 43 percent of the primary vote coming from Buchanan County, and, in 2014, 42 percent of the Republican primary vote came from Buchanan County. Platte County voters are typically more suburban and consider themselves from Kansas City, while Buchanan County voters are more rural and consider themselves from Buchanan County and vote more geographically.

While the Luetkemeyer argument is that with 55 percent or more vote from Platte County their financial advantage should hold either way. Luetkemeyer will no doubt hit Roberts on votes he has taken as presiding commissioner. Roberts’ counter will probably center around some personal comments Luetkemeyer made on marijuana in college because he doesn’t have a record to critique.

Bottom line, If Luetkemeyer keeps his huge fundraising advantage, he could overcome his geographical disadvantage. However, if Roberts raises enough money to fully fund his campaign then he may have a slight advantage. Either way, this race is a toss-up.

(R) Tony Luetkemeyer
Contributions this period: $85,851
Contributions this election: $398,776.60
Cash on hand: $380,750.67

(R) Buchanan County Presiding Commissioner Harry Roberts
Contributions this period: $67,275
Contributions this election: $186,120.84
Cash on hand: $14,9541.11

 

SD 18 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

TIP SHEET PREDICTION: TOSS UP

(R+5.6) Senator Brian Munzlinger is term-limited.

How do you handicap a four-way primary to fill the big boots of Senator Munzlinger in northeast Missouri? The contenders are Rep. Lindell Shumake, Rep. Craig Redmon, and Rep. Nate Walker, as well as businesswoman Cindy O’Laughlin.

Rep. Redmon has been working the district for several years and is casting himself as the heir to Sen. Munzlinger’s efforts, with the support of his chief of staff Pat Thomas and Senator Munzlinger’s endorsement.

He has a geographical base in his district and has a path to victory the likely includes Walker and O’Laughlin attacking each other and him being the ultimate beneficiary.

O’Laughlin is casting herself as an outsider who has jumped out to the large fundraising advantage with a large sum from her personal fortune. She is attempting to run as an outsider and seems to have a path to victory of coming in second in her opponent’s districts and winning Randolph County.

Rep. Walker lays claim to being a consistent winner and having the western side of the district to himself while his three opponents are from the eastern portion, and with Barklage and Company on board running his campaign. He also has Rep. Jim Hansen supporting his campaign.

Rep. Shumake being in the race means that O’Laughlin has no geographical base to herself. He will need some luck to win, but it’s not impossible in a four-way primary for him to be the candidate who isn’t attacked and win on a Christian conservative track.

Taking a closer look at the Highway 61 vs Highway 63 numbers in 2014. Remember Redmon, O’Laughlin, and Shumake are from the Highway 61 corridor, while Walker is from the Highway 63 corridor.

The district has been broken down into 4 regions:

  • Highway 61 corridor of Marion, Clark, Pike, Lewis, and Ralls Counties.
  • Highway 63 corridor of Schuyler, Adair, Macon, and Linn Counties.
  • Middle counties of Shelby, Scotland, and Knox Counties.
  • Southern counties of Randolph and Chariton Counties.

The geographical advantage goes to Rep. Walker with 41 percent of the vote coming from the Highway 63 corridor with 35 percent of the vote from the eastern side with just 7 percent coming from counties in between.

This leaves the southern counties of Randolph and Chariton as the real battleground with nearly 16 percent of the vote and no natural candidate coming from that portion of the district. While the rest of the district is in relatively inexpensive media markets the southern counties are in the Columbia media market and will be expensive to effectively enter. With the logic stating that O’Laughlin will have the financial advantage, she could be best poised to win this area.

If you assume Rep. Redmon runs the strongest in the Highway 61 corridor, Rep. Walker runs the strongest in the Highway 63 corridor, O’Laughlin needs to come in 2nd in both areas and win the southern counties. Meaning any of the three could win with Shumake being the longest shot of the field.

Bottom line, if Walker can fully fund his campaign he has a geographical advantage. O’Laughlin has to run a top-shelf campaign to thread the needle of coming in second everywhere and winning Randolph County, but the key to such a strategy is money and she has it. Redmond may be able to keep his powder dry and benefit from negative ads attacking Walker and O’Laughlin and win the race as the positive candidate. Walker and O’Laughlin are slight favorites in the field a month out.

(R) Rep. Craig Redmon
Contributions this period: $12,098
Contributions this election: $236,581.98
Cash on hand: $68,840.07

(R) Rep. Nate Walker
Contributions this period: $6,125
Contributions this election: $17,525
Cash on hand: $15,554.12

(R) Cindy O’Laughlin
Contributions this period: $11,338.2
Contributions this election: $239,025.22
Cash on hand: $227,882.72

(R) Lindell Shumake
Contributions this period: $45,90.99
Contributions this election: $40,261.18
Cash on hand: $20,216.62

 

SD 16 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

TIP SHEET PREDICTION: TOSS UP

(R+11.2) Senator Dan Brown is term-limited.  

It’s easy to forget that it was only 8 years ago when Doc Brown defeated an incumbent Democrat to flip the seat Republican. A lot has happened since then and it’s turned into a geographical battle between the eastern and western sides of the district.

Rep. Keith Frederick is running, as is Senator Brown’s son Justin, also from the Phelps County area, is seeking his father’s seat while Rep. Diane Franklin from the western side of the district is running.

The easiest way to break down the district is between eastern and western counties. This would be Camden and Pulaski Counties to the west and Phelps, Dent, and Crawford Counties to the east. Breaking it down in those terms Rep. Franklin would have a slight 52 percent to 48 percent geographical advantage especially with both of her challengers being from the eastern side of the district.

However, the topography doesn’t exactly align with the geography where Pulaski County is concerned. While Phelps, Dent, and Crawford counties are all aligned and will likely vote together, Pulaski County does not have the same natural tie to Camden County. It may be more likely that the voting alignment is 48 percent in the eastern counties, 34 percent in Camden County and 17 percent in Pulaski County, without a natural geographical candidate but with Rep. Franklin with perhaps an advantage out of the gate to claim them.

The combustible element in the race is Dr. Frederick. He is the state representative from Rolla and there was a lot of questions if he would make the race. Well, he did. Then some wondered if he was comfortable just being a spoiler, well he is running a full campaign. He can also self-fund a healthy media buy in the final weeks if he chooses to do so.

Justin Brown has a financial advantage in the race and has been working the district hard for the longest time. Also look for some IEs to come in likely attacking his opponents on his behalf.

Rep. Franklin has a very logical argument to win the race. It would be that she will be marginally better in the eastern counties than Brown or Frederick will do in Camden County while having a better claim to the Pulaski County vote. Essentially her opponents split their home counties and she carries hers. The large financial investment she made in her race combined with Dr. Frederick engaging in the race really put her in the game. She has a great slogan “One Tough Grandma” and a great first ad. The momentum may be with her.

Bottom line, you can predict what the campaigns will be doing in the 34th and the 18th but here there are a lot of variables. Brown has to utilize his financial strength to take a share of Camden and do well in Pulaski County. Franklin has probably the most direct path to winning, but it may take another investment in the campaign to defend herself against attacks. The wildcard is Dr. Frederick he could be the one who impacts the race most directly if he antes up to the table at a high enough dollar amount he might even win.

(R) Rep. Diane Franklin
Contributions this period: $15,270.00
Contributions this election: $124,285
Cash on hand: $104,824.99

(R) Justin Brown
Contributions this period: $8,800
Contributions this election: $245,695
Cash on hand: $203,565.19

(R) Keith Frederick
Contributions this period: $750.00
Contributions this election: $18,303.07
Cash on hand: $17,483.73

 

SD 14 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

TIP SHEET PREDICTION: TOSS UP

(D+18.9) Senator Maria Chappelle-Nadal is term-limited.

This district is home to some of the most politically active people in the state stretching from the St. Louis County seat of Clayton to Ferguson. Currently, the race is between Representative and former University City Mayor Joe Adams, former Representative Sharon Pace, and former staffer to Congressman Lacy Clay Brian Williams.

Williams has a great deal of personal political talent as well as the backing of Congressman Clay. If Congressman Clay goes all out for Williams, he is the favorite.

If he does not, Rep. Joe Adams is likely the marginal front-runner. He is a strong retail politician and has been working the Senate district the hardest the longest.

Former Rep. Sharon Pace knows how to get votes and in this year, perhaps more than most, being the only woman on the ballot could be pivotal. The question will be whether she will raise enough money and have the ground game to close the deal.

Rep. Courtney Curtis is a wild card. He was denied the ability to file as a Democrat due to unpaid ethics commission fines. Curtis took the issue to court and lost. All signs point to him mounting an independent bid in the fall.

Bottom line, how much will Congressman Clay do to support Williams, how large of an advantage will it be to Rep. Pace as the only woman on the ballot, and does Joe Adams just grind the field into submission? These races are always the hardest to predict.

(D) Rep. Joe Adams
Contributions this period: $17,170
Contributions this election: $81,643.66
Cash on hand: $84,091.88

(D) Former Rep. Sharon Pace
Contributions this period: $1,770
Contributions this election: $14,054.24
Cash on hand: $26,644.28

(D) Brian Williams
Contributions this period: $22,550.00
Contributions this election: $22,550.00
Cash on hand: $22,081.18

 

SD 32 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

TIP SHEET PREDICTION: LEAN WHITE

(R+19.5)  Senator Ron Richard is term-limited.

This is the primary that has been slipping down our list because it’s not really materializing. Rep. Bill White has been working the district very hard and banking a great deal of money and on the ground support. Rob O’Brian is the Joplin Chamber of Commerce leader who is new to state politics and likely has a bit of a hill to climb in the final weeks.

The key to this race is the rumored large number of IEs rumored to be hitting White to aid O’Brian. O’Brian has all the ability to win this race, and his plan always had to be coming from behind with large money drop at the end, but as we approach the end it appears that is more important than ever in the race to succeed Senator Ron Richard.

Bottom line, the IEs against Rep. White better be top quality because his campaign leading up to the final four weeks has been.

(R) Rep. Bill White
Contributions this period: $4,102
Contributions this election: $211,432.91
Cash on hand: $174,924.2

(R) Rob O’Brian
Contributions this period: N/A
Contributions this election: N/A
Cash on hand: N/A

 

COMPETITIVE GENERAL ELECTIONS

 

TIP SHEET PREDICTION: TOSS UP

SD 34 (R+0.8) Senator Rob Schaaf is term-limited.

The general election in the 34th will be competitive. It will pit a likely exhausted and broke Republican against former MU star Martin Rucker. We will have plenty of coverage of this race after the primary.

Bottom line, the 34th is the state’s Republican hottest primary and may be the Democrats best pickup opportunity.

(D) Martin Rucker
Contributions this period: $17,355.30
Contributions this election: $30,055.00
Cash on hand: $$37,392.81

(R) Tony Luetkemeyer
Contributions this period: $85,851
Contributions this election: $398,776.6
Cash on hand: $380,750.67

(R) Buchanan County Presiding Commissioner Harry Roberts
Contributions this period: $67,275
Contributions this election: $186,120.84
Cash on hand: $14,9541.11

 

TIP SHEET PREDICTION: LEAN WIELAND

SD 22 (D+1.2) Senator Wieland is running for re-election.

Two events mostly out of Senator Wieland’s control appear to be shaping his re-election bid, which was always going to be a competitive contest: 1) Donald Trump radically changed the partisan landscape of Jefferson County politics and 2) Republicans passed right-to-work and labor placed it on the ballot.

His opponent will likely be attorney Robert Butler, who has run twice previously for state Representative and seems to be putting together a legitimate campaign against Wieland as former Senator Bill McKenna has agreed to be his treasurer.

While Wieland has a pretty strong pro-labor voting record it was Republicans who passed right-to-work. On the other side, will Butler be the type of pro-life and pro-gun Democrat that actually gets elected in Jefferson County, like Bill McKenna?

Bottom line, will labor members who shoot guns and have been voting Republican who are angry about right-to-work stay angry enough in November to put Wieland in trouble? For now, the race leans Wieland, but he will have to run a full race.

(R) Sen. Paul Wieland
Contributions this period: $8,975
Contributions this election: $38,7701.83
Cash on hand: $160,762.44

(D) Robert Butler
Contributions this period: $4,170
Contributions this election: $4,170
Cash on hand: $4,151.25

(D) Edward Thurman
Contributions this period: N/A
Contributions this election: N/A
Cash on hand: N/A

(L) Richard Camden
Contributions this period: $100
Contributions this election: $100
Cash on hand: $100

 

TIP SHEET PREDICTION: LIKELY HOUGH

SD 30 (R+4.6)  Senator Bob Dixon is term-limited.

Former representative and current Greene County Commissioner Lincoln Hough has all the ability to be one of the greatest post term-limited Senators Missouri has seen. However, first, he will have to manage the changing demographics of his city of Springfield Senate district and a resurgent Democratic party. Although he has only been gone one session, in that one session he may be surprised to see that the House saw a very solid group of freshmen Democrats that has breathed some life into their party.

Former Rep. Charlie Norr is a completely qualified candidate to be a state senator and is running a spirited campaign with a chance to win.

However, the talk among Democrats is the possibility that one of the Democrats’ rising stars, Rep. Crystal Quade, could replace Norr after the primary. This seems less likely as the time the switch would have to happen approaches, but it would change the dynamic of the race.

Bottom line, if the Democrats flip this seat and defeat one of top half-dozen rising stars in the entire Missouri Republican Party then you can legitimately call it a blue wave.

(R) Former Rep. Lincoln Hough
Contributions this period: $79,002.00
Contributions this election: $86,051.00
Cash on hand: $162,083.67

(D) Former Rep. Charlie Norr
Contributions this period: $4,212.50
Contributions this election: $18,176.03
Cash on hand: $18,695.86

 

TIP SHEET PREDICTION: LIKELY CIERPIOT

SD 8 (R+3.8) Senator Cierpiot is running for re-election and is term-limited in 2026.

Senator Cierpiot won the November special election by a comfortable margin in what turned into a three-way race. In that victory, he cemented the eastern Jackson County Republicans behind him in a way that was unlikely without the unique qualities of the special election. With Turk running again for Congress, Cierpiot only has a marginal primary and is set to run a rematch of the special election, though this time without Turk siphoning off his votes.

While the Democrats put forth a compelling and very savvy candidate in Hillary Shields, this is the only Republican seat in Jackson County and is likely to stay that way in a general election.

Bottom line, Shields is a good candidate but may have had her best chance in the special with Turk in the race. The blue wave would be a tsunami for the Democrats to win, but Shields is a good candidate who you probably haven’t heard the last of.

(R) Sen. Mike Cierpiot
Contributions this period: $8,325
Contributions this election: $17,797.47
Cash on hand: $23,791.7

(R) Leonard Jonas Hughes IV
Contributions this period: $0.00
Contributions this election: $0.00
Cash on hand: $1,847.00

(D) Hillary Shields
Contributions this period: $43,451.27
Contributions this election: $51,804.37
Cash on hand: $38,915.01

 

SAFE GENERAL ELECTIONS

 

TIP SHEET PREDICTION: SAFE ONDER

SD2 Onder (R+6.9) Senator Onder is running for re-election and is term-limited in 2022.

Senator Onder currently has no serious opposition. On the horizon, look for Rep. John Wieman as a top-shelf candidate and Rep. Justin Hill as someone who is preparing for the 2022 primary race.

(R) Sen. Bob Onder
Contributions this period: $8,600
Contributions this election: $569,280.43
Cash on hand: $304,062.68

(D) Patrice Billings
Contributions this period: $9,093
Contributions this election: $27,769.89
Cash on hand: $16,484.54

 

TIP SHEET PREDICTION: SAFE HUMMEL

SD 4 (D+24.5) Senator Hummel is running for re-election and is term-limited in 2026.

Senator Hummel currently has no serious opposition in a district that is changing in many ways, but not in terms of partisan makeup.

Further, keep in mind that Senator Hummel is currently completing the unfinished term of former Senator Joe Keaveny so he will be eligible to seek another 4-year term in 2022.

(D) Sen. Jake Hummel
Contributions this period: $12365
Contributions this election: $80498.5
Cash on hand: $98,044.72

(D) Karla May
Contributions this period: $560
Contributions this election: $49335
Cash on hand: $18,201.06

(R) Robert Crump
Contributions this period: $0
Contributions this election: $200
Cash on hand: $200

 

TIP SHEET PREDICTION: SAFE BERNSKOETTER

SD6 R+12.5 Senator Mike Kehoe is term-limited.

Rep. Bernskoetter has done everything possible to lock this seat down, from fundraising to being at every event possible in the district, even avoiding a primary. He even secured the endorsement of the now-Lt. Governor and his predecessor Mike Kehoe.

(R) Rep. Mike Bernskoetter
Contributions this period: $3,750.00
Contributions this election: $151,076.67
Cash on hand: $145,793.48

(D) Bryan Struebig
Contributions this period: $440.00
Contributions this election: $390.00
Cash on hand: $472.50

(D) Nicole Thompson
Contributions this period: $500.00
Contributions this election: $624.92
Cash on hand: $1,024.92

(D) Mollie Kristen Freebairn
Contributions this period:  N/A
Contributions this election:  N/A
Cash on hand:  N/A

(L) Steven Wilson
Contributions this period: N/A
Contributions this election: N/A
Cash on hand: N/A

 

TIP SHEET PREDICTION: SAFE RIDDLE

SD10 (R+4.7) Senator Riddle is running for re-election and is term-limited in 2022.

Senator Riddle is one of the more popular Senators in the chamber. While she has a Democratic opponent, something would have to dramatically change for her re-election to be in doubt.

(R) Sen. Jeanie Riddle
Contributions this period: $19,100
Contributions this election: $259,800.18
Cash on hand: $164,422.4

(D) Ayanna Shivers
Contributions this period: $2,285
Contributions this election: $2,325
Cash on hand: $856.26

 

TIP SHEET PREDICTION: SAFE HEGEMAN

SD12 (R+8.4) Senator Hegeman is running for re-election and is term-limited in 2022.

Senator Hegeman is in a safe Republican district and a safe bet to return to Jefferson City in January.

(R) Sen. Dan Hegeman
Contributions this period: $935
Contributions this election: $185,055
Cash on hand: $128,769.37

(D) Terry Richard
Contributions this period: N/A
Contributions this election: N/A
Cash on hand: N/A

 

TIP SHEET PREDICTION: SAFE BURLISON

SD20 (R+16.1)  Senator Jay Wasson is term-limited.

Rep. Burlison did everything he needed to clear the primary and secure his win in this very safe Senate district. Look for him to be a legislative machine in the Senate, just as he was in the House.

(R) Former Rep. Eric Burlison
Contributions this period: $27,970
Contributions this election: $333,930.44
Cash on hand: $351,527.55

(D) James Billedo
Contributions this period: $250
Contributions this election: $250
Cash on hand: $250

 

TIP SHEET PREDICTION: SAFE SCHUPP

SD24 (D+3.7) Senator Schupp is running for re-election and is term-limited in 2022.

Senator Schupp has been an outstanding Senator since joining the body. Partisan shifts in St. Louis County and her performance in Jefferson City saw her avoid a serious challenger this cycle. The district is close enough we could revisit it, but as of now, she is a safe bet for re-election.

(D) Senator Jill Schupp
Contributions this period: $109,037.54
Contributions this election: $846,376.65
Cash on hand: $649,993.28

(R) Gregory Powers
Contributions this period: N/A
Contributions this election: N/A
Cash on hand: N/A

 

TIP SHEET PREDICTION: SAFE SCHATZ

SD26 (R+9.8) Senator Schatz is running for re-election and is term-limited in 2022.

Senator Schatz currently has no serious opposition. On the horizon now that Rep. Alferman has joined the administration, look for Rep. Nate Tate and former Rep. Dave Hinson to be taking serious looks at the seat in 2022.

(R) Senator Dave Schatz
Contributions this period: $2,000
Contributions this election: $129,240.57
Cash on hand: $293,602.68

(D) John Kiehne
Contributions this period: N/A
Contributions this election: N/A
Cash on hand: N/A

 

TIP SHEET PREDICTION: SAFE CRAWFORD

SD28 (R+11.8) Senator Crawford is running for re-election and is term-limited in 2026.

After winning a special election, Senator Crawford currently has no serious opposition. This year, she will be completing the term of now-Governor Mike Parson and will not be term-limited until 2026.

(R) Sen. Sandy Crawford
Contributions this period: $3,350
Contributions this election: $23,125
Cash on hand: $167,100.70

(D) Joseph Poor
Contributions this period: $2,009
Contributions this election: $2,419
Cash on hand: $1,356.42

 

OPEN SENATE SEATS IN 2020

 

SD 1 (D+5.1)  Senator Sifton is term-limited in 2020.

With Sen. Scott Sifton being term-limited in 2020 in one of the few swing districts in the state this seat seems likely to be the 34th of 2020 with likely a Republican primary and a competitive general election. Rep. Marsha Haefner is a tremendous general election candidate but there are enough Republicans in the district now that she could draw a primary. On the Democrats’ side, look for Reps. Bob Burns and Doug Beck to decide between themselves who will run for state Senate and who will run for County Council.

(R) Rep. Marsha Haefner
Contributions this period: $950
Contributions this election: $25,903.41
Cash on hand: $12,066.68

(D) Rep. Bob Burns
Contributions this period: $3,250
Contributions this election: $101,751.32
Cash on hand: $18,075.08

(D) Rep. Doug Beck
Contributions this period: $18,985
Contributions this election: $108,307.14
Cash on hand: $41,810.76

 

SD3 (D+2.4) Senator Romine is term-limited in 2020.

If the Democrats are going to eliminate the Republicans’ supermajority then they have to take back the 3rd. The Republicans are building up a large bench to hold the seat, and that probably starts with Rep. Mike Henderson. Rep. Ben Harris is the leading Democratic candidate and would fit the mold of the pro-life Democrats that have previously represented the district.

The wild card could be that some of the rumors of Senator Romine being recruited to join the Parson administration are true. If so you probably give the advantage to the Republicans in this rural special election.

(R) Rep. Mike Henderson
Contributions this period: $0
Contributions this election: $13,075
Cash on hand: $14,072.11

(R) Former Rep. Linda Black (no active committee)
Contributions this period: N/A
Contributions this election: N/A
Cash on hand: N/A

(D) Rep. Ben Harris
Contributions this period: $3,100
Contributions this election: $3,100
Cash on hand: $16,642.88

 

SD5 (D+39.9) Senator Nasheed is term-limited in 2020.

This seat will be a dogfight of a Democratic primary as it always has been and the fact that the Democrats in the House are building a more talented bench it will be even more so. The big question is when the race will happen and how. If Senator Nasheed wins the President of the St. Louis City Board of Aldermen race next spring, the next senator will be selected by a committee vote. Keep an eye on this one.

(D) Steve Roberts
Contributions this period: $11,097.00
Contributions this election: $21,646.40
Cash on hand: $15,240.93

(D) Bruce Franks
Contributions this period: $5,503.00
Contributions this election: $61,606.00
Cash on hand: $14,489.32

(D)  Peter Merideth
Contributions this period:$5,962.00
Contributions this election: $162,660.21
Cash on hand:$26,611.62

 

SD7 (D+20.8) Senator Holsman is term-limited in 2020.

This south Kansas City district has been home to some of the most talented legislators in recent history. Reps. Razer and McGee are both very talented and would fit that mold in a tough primary matchup. The question could become does Senator Holsman run for Kansas City’s City Council and if he runs will there be a special election. There are many dynamics to each scenario that will be fun to follow the next cycle.

(D) Rep. Greg Razer
Contributions this period: $7,185
Contributions this election: $59,979.18
Cash on hand: $15,975.45

(D) Rep. DaRon McGee
Contributions this period: $2,874.75
Contributions this election: $19,888.7
Cash on hand: $4,352.07

 

SD9 (D+33.9) Senator Curls is term-limited in 2020.

It is a lengthy legacy that Senator Curls will leave behind in 2020. She has enormous shoes to fill and look for a tough primary that will certainly include Rep. Ellington. One candidate who would have been a top contender Rep. McCain Beatty has taken a job with the county and is now unlikely to run.

(D) Rep. Brandon Ellington
Contributions this period: $3,600
Contributions this election: $78,439.71
Cash on hand: $54,60.95

 

SD 11 (D+8.9) Senator Rizzo is term-limited in 2024.

(D) Senator John Rizzo
Contributions this period: $2,850.00
Contributions this election: $55,167.85
Cash on hand: $39,241.67

 

SD13 (D+27.5) Senator Walsh is term-limited in 2020.

Senator Walsh took this seat without a very large primary fight in 2012, but that is unlikely to be the case in 2020. There are several legislators that would be viable candidates, and all seem likely to run. Rep. Walker might have to move. Her House district is split the 13th and 14th districts so she could move into the 13th and still be inside of her House district similar to Senator Rizzo last cycle.

(D) Rep. Alan Green
Contributions this period: $0.00
Contributions this election: $6,110.00
Cash on hand: $4,527.79

(D) Rep. Cora Faith Walker
Contributions this period: $3483.5
Contributions this election: $16,894.96
Cash on hand: $11,880.48

(D) Rep. Jay Mosley
Contributions this period: $3,145.00
Contributions this election: $6,511.49
Cash on hand: $6,585.35

 

SD 15 (R+9.3) Senator Koenig is term-limited in 2024.

(R) Senator Andrew Koenig
Contributions this period: $4,150.00
Contributions this election: $41,275.00
Cash on hand: $42,002.44

 

SD 17 (D+2.7) Senator-elect Arthur, if not sworn in until January, is not term-limited until 2028.

(R) Senator Lauren Arthur
Contributions this period: $95,557.00
Contributions this election: $31,672.30
Cash on hand: $55,686.99

 

SD 19 (R+0.7) Senator Rowden is term-limited in 2024.

Senator Rowden is not only a rising star in the Senate but in the entire Republican Party. However, that will not mean that he will be spared from a tough re-election in a swing district in 2020. Look for Reps. Kendrick and Stevens to take a look at the seat, and a top-tier Democrat will file. Don’t sleep on former Rep. Stephen Webber seeking a rematch.

(R) Senator Caleb Rowden
Contributions this period: $9,100.00
Contributions this election: $203,776.91
Cash on hand: $68,468.81

(D) Rep. Kip Kendrick
Contributions this period: $3,450.00
Contributions this election: $21,065.00
Cash on hand: $38,003.09

(D) Rep. Martha Stevens
Contributions this period: $1,985.00
Contributions this election: $127,489.51
Cash on hand:$20,151.36

 

SD 21 (R+4.9) Senator Hoskins is term-limited in 2024.

(R) Senator Denny Hoskins
Contributions this period: $9,000.00
Contributions this election: $55,657.94
Cash on hand: $68,387.85

 

SD 23 (R+3.3) Senator Eigel is term-limited in 2024.

(R) Senator Bill Eigel
Contributions this period: $6,350.00
Contributions this election: $82,107.00
Cash on hand: $37,808.99

 

SD 25 (Libla) R+11.4 Senator Libla is term-limited in 2020.

Senator Libla leaving in 2020 could pave the way for another primary that likely comes down to geography in 2020. There are several talented legislators in the district but keep an eye on Poplar Bluff businessman Herman Styles a close confidant of Senator Libla to be the next Senator from the bootheel.  

(R) Rep. Andrew McDaniel
Contributions this period: $825.00
Contributions this election: $2,125.00
Cash on hand: $2,735.78

(R) Rep. Steve Cookson
Contributions this period: $0.00
Contributions this election: $7,900.00
Cash on hand: $6,638.23

(R) Rep. Don Rone
Contributions this period: $0.00
Contributions this election: $0.00
Cash on hand: $25,503.80

(R) Rep. Holly Rehder
Contributions this period: $9,835.00
Contributions this election: $15,500.00
Cash on hand: $154,614.64

 

SD27 (R+16.4) Senator Wallingford is term-limited in 2020.

This 2020 primary looks ominously like the 2012 primary, with a well-qualified Scott County candidate attempting to break into Cape Girardeau County against a Cape County candidate. There will likely be several prominent Cape County candidates consider the race, and if one or more jump into the race, such as Cape Girardeau County Presiding Commissioner Clint Tracy, then the race would erupt into a dogfight. If the race is one Cape County candidate versus one Scott County candidate, then Rep. Rehder will have to do something to avoid history repeating itself. Then throw in the possibility of Senator Wallingford leaving the Senate to serve in another branch of government and you have one of the more complex primary scenarios in the state.

(R) Rep. Kathy Swan
Contributions this period: $950.00
Contributions this election: $0.00
Cash on hand: $51,724.35

(R) Rep. Holly Rehder
Contributions this period: $9,835.00
Contributions this election: $15,500.00
Cash on hand: $154,614.64

 

SD29 (R+19.9) Senator Sater is term-limited in 2020.

House Budget Chairman Scott Fitzpatrick will succeed Senator Sater should he choose to run. If not, it will be a typical southwest Missouri primary battle.

(R) Rep. Scott Fitzpatrick
Contributions this period: $1,000.00
Contributions this election: $10,000.00
Cash on hand: $72,481.53

 

SD31 (R+6.2) Senator Emery is term-limited in 2020.

There seems to always be a primary in this race between the Cass County candidate and a candidate who is not from Cass County. Rep. Bondon will be the best candidate from Cass County, but you have to assume another current or former legislator steps up to challenge him. However, he starts any race as the favorite.

(R) Rep. Jack Bondon
Contributions this period: $2,500.00
Contributions this election: $2,635.00
Cash on hand: $44,380.52

 

SD33 (R+15.7) Senator Cunningham is term-limited in 2020.

There was a three-way primary that Senator Cunningham survived from in 2012, and it could have very well repeated that history in 2020. However with Rep. Rhoads leaving the legislature and Rep. Fraker potentially less likely to be in the administration and more likely to look at running for Senate this race has radically changed in the last two months.

(R) Rep. Robert Ross
Contributions this period: $2,500.00
Contributions this election: $250.00
Cash on hand: $28,215.41

(R) Rep. Lyndall Fraker
Contributions this period: $2,000.00
Contributions this election: $250.00
Cash on hand: $13,381.76

 

The Senate outlook starts with seven returning Democrats and ten returning Republicans. Going into fall, the Republicans have another ten safe seats, putting them over the majority of 18 needed while the Democrats have another three safe seats making the Senate make up 20-10.

Of the other four seats, two of them SD8 and SD30 would have to radically change for Democrats to win, making the Senate likely 22-10. SD22 could become a very competitive race, but it starts the general election cycle leaning Republican, making the Senate 23-10.

That would mean that today we would see the Senate as 23-10 Republicans with one toss-up race. Where this really matters is that in a 23-11 Senate, it would take 6 Republicans to refuse to PQ legislation, which is probably unlikely. However, if the Democrats cut that to 22-12 or even 21-13, then the PQ could begin to become less of a realistic option for Senate leadership.