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House tipsheet: Week before election

  

The election cycle started off with a 116 to 47 Republican supermajority in the House. With 109 needed to override a veto, they should be in a strong position to retain their supermajority. Last fall, the Republicans lost a huge upset when a seat in St. Louis County that had been in Republican hands for decades flipped to the Democratic column making it a 115 to 58 supermajority. The two current vacancies are in seats that Republicans have held for decades. 

While Democrats will do better in the suburbs, it’s more likely that they secure some modest gains and prepare for the new map likely drawn under the Clean Missouri law in 2022. Currently, I’d figure a swing of 3 to 4 seats to the Democrats. Not enough to break that supermajority, but enough to make overriding Gov. Mike Parson nearly impossible. 

The list of races that are being hotly contested are below. Keep in mind that in all walks of life, 2020 has been an unpredictable year, so if there was ever a year that could bring surprises then this would be it, but here are some races of note. 


HD 10 (R +5.5) Rep. Bill Falkner is running for re-election.  LIKELY REPUBLICAN
This St. Joseph seat is one that, frankly, Republicans shouldn’t have, but even in this tough cycle, the former mayor of St. Joseph is such a strong candidate that he likely holds the seat. 

(R) Bill Falkner
Contributions this cycle: $22,723
Cash on hand: $14,003
(D) Colby Murphy
Contributions this cycle: $9,745
Cash on hand: $2,918


HD 14 (D+ 3.8) Rep. Matt Sain isn’t running for re-election. LIKELY DEMOCRAT
This seat is one of the rare seats where Republicans are trying to challenge a Democratic seat. Probably a bit of an uphill climb in this cycle. 

(R) Eric Holmes
Contributions this cycle: $22,484
Cash on hand: $14,972
(D) Ashley Aune
Contributions this cycle: $73,686
Cash on hand: $15,860


HD 16 (R+1.7) Rep. Noel Shull is term-limited. TOSS UP
Democrats are making a hard push for this seat that is one they should have held. However, the Republicans scored a top recruit in former coach Chris Brown. The Democrats should take the seat, but Brown is putting up such a tremendous fight his personal reputation may trump party allegiance in the HD 16. 

(R) Chris Brown
Contributions this cycle: $38,407
Cash on hand: $24,892
(D) James Shackelford
Contributions this cycle: $81,627
Cash on hand: $15,706


HD 30 (R +3.8) Rep. Jon Patterson is seeking re-election. LIKELY REPUBLICAN 
Rep. Patterson is a rising star in Republican politics. HD 30 might be trending Democratic, but it’s highly unlikely while Dr. Patterson is on call. 

(R) Jon Patterson
Contributions this cycle: Latest figures unavailable
Cash on hand: Latest figures unavailable
(D) Art Schaaf
Contributions this cycle: $8,822
Cash on hand: $6,788


HD 31 (R+1.5)  Rep. Dan Stacy is seeking re-election. LEAN REPUBLICAN
HD 31 is getting better for Democrats, but it will have to be a blue wave to sink Rep. Stacy whose colleagues have pitched in to help fight off a tough challenge from a good Democratic recruit. If HD 31 flips, it’s going to be a long night for Republicans. 

(R) Dan Stacy
Contributions this cycle: $27,709
Cash on hand: $6,865
(D) Rhonda Dolan
Contributions this cycle: $68,639
Cash on hand: $27,687


HD 34 (R+4.9) This seat is vacant. TOSS UP
The conventional wisdom was that the race would be competitive, but in the end Rick Roeber would succeed his wife, Rebecca, in her seat in the House. However, this race was turned up on its ear after allegations of physical and sexual abuse were levied against him. If it’s just a straight partisan election, he has a chance. If these allegations are known to the district, then you have to assume it’s a Democratic pickup. 

(R) Rick Roeber
Contributions this cycle: $34,896
Cash on hand: $3,746
(D) Chris Hager
Contributions this cycle: $16,944
Cash on hand: $12,421


HD 35 (D +0) Rep. Keri Ingle is seeking re-election. SAFE DEMOCRAT
Rep. Ingle had a reason to work in her swing district, but she will be easily returned to Jefferson City. 

(R) Sean Smith
Contributions this cycle: N/A
Cash on hand: N/A
(D) Keri Ingle
Contributions this cycle: $101,786
Cash on hand: $66,949


HD 65 (R+.03) Rep. Tom Hannegan is seeking re-election. LEAN REPUBLICAN 

(R) Tom Hannegan
Contributions this cycle: $12,896
Cash on hand: $9,946
(D) Bill Otto
Contributions this cycle: $71,464
Cash on hand: $42,697


HD 70 (D-.07) Rep. Paula Brown is seeking re-election. SAFE DEMOCRAT
This seat was flipped blue in 2018 and will stay that way in 2020. 

(R) Jerry Adzima
Contributions this cycle: $5,555
Cash on hand: $7,055
(D) Paula Brown
Contributions this cycle: $65,670
Cash on hand: $48,941


HD 94 (R -2.5) Rep. Jim Murphy is seeking re-election. LEAN REPUBLICAN 
The ultimate swing district of the 2010 map has produced a rematch of the 2018 campaign. Republicans are confident and have gone all in for their popular colleague, but it’s going to be competitive until the end. 

(R) Jim Murphy
Contributions this cycle: $61,533
Cash on hand: $14,011
(D) Jean Pretto
Contributions this cycle: $76,573
Cash on hand: $17,101


HD 95 (R +4.9) Rep. Michael O’Donnell is seeking re-election. LEAN REPUBLICAN 
Rep. O’Donnell has done everything he needs to do to hold this seat, but it has become a swing district and the South County is going to be more competitive going forward. 

(R) Michael O’Donnell
Contributions this cycle: $33,451
Cash on hand: $2,364
(D) Ann Zimpfer
Contributions this cycle: $41,769
Cash on hand: $12,362


HD 99 (D +3.4) Rep. Trish Gunby is seeking re-election. SAFE DEMOCRAT
In a sign of where things are trending in St. Louis County, this seat that Rep. Gunby flipped just a year ago is seen as safe today. 

(R) Lee Ann Pitman
Contributions this cycle: $15,891
Cash on hand: $4,747
(D) Trish Gunby
Contributions this cycle: $84,052
Cash on hand: $80,894


HD 100 (R +10.2) Rep.  Derek Grier is seeking re-election. LIKELY REPUBLICAN 
The swing parts of St. Louis County are leaving South County and moving into West County. Rep. Grier has all the money he needs and should win, but this is an actual race. 

(R) Derek Grier
Contributions this cycle: $34,896
Cash on hand: $36,190
(D) Helena Webb
Contributions this cycle: $91,556
Cash on hand: $3,824


HD 106 (R +0.03) Rep. Chrissy Sommer is term-limited. LEAN REPUBLICAN
Rep. Sommer made this seat look safer than it was for Republicans. Now they should hold it, but this is a seat that should give some hope to Democrats looking for new areas to compete in. 

(R) Adam Schwadron
Contributions this cycle: $9,493
Cash on hand: $2,357
(D) Cindy Berne
Contributions this cycle: $76,877
Cash on hand: $18,315


HD 135 (R +1.9) Rep. Steve Helms is seeking re-election. TOSS UP
You can get any number of opinions on this seat depending on who you talk to. Republicans are going to pour money into it again, and it’s the kind of district that you want to actually see some trends to believe. However, Besty Fogle was the top recruit of the cycle for Democrats, and they are just as confident that she flips this seat. If Rep. Helms wins, it could be an indicator of another long night for Democrats. 

(R) Steve Helms
Contributions this cycle: $71,250
Cash on hand: $17,010
(D) Betsy Fogle
Contributions this cycle: $153,213
Cash on hand: $34,809