Competitive House Races

Of the 18 competitive races that will decide how the margin moves in the #moleg, 5 are races where Republican incumbents are still facing challenges, and 5 are Democratic incumbents. Then there are 4 open-seat tough races for both the Republicans and Democrats.
Of the republican incumbents Rep. Bill Allen only won with 50.2% so he will be targeted, in HD38 Chris Londsdale will have a barrage of attacks in his re-election, in HD100 Phil Oehlerking won a squeaker in a Democratic trending district. All three will be major democratic targets. In HD100 and HD133 Reps. Brad Christ and Melanie Stinnett will both have tough re-election, but are not facing the tough falls as the other three.

On the Democratic side in the northland freshman Rep. Jamie Johnson is facing a tough re-election against a recruit the Republicans are high on. In Jackson County in HD34 Rep. Kemp Stricker faces a rematch in a race he only garnered 50.14% in last cycle, and in HD135 Rep. Hein faces another to republican recruit in her re-election fight. In HD12 the presumptive democratic floor leader Rep. Ashley Aune will have a fight, and in HD47 Rep. Plank will have a battle but they are probably in for easier fall campaigns than the other three.
On the Republican side the race to replace Rep. Schwardon in St. Charles County in HD 105 is at the top of the Democrat’s list. The trends in that part of the district could impact HD69, but is likely to be held. In Jackson County the Republicans scored a top recruit in Mike Steinmeyer who is the favorite, and in HD31 the Republicans pulled another top recruit in Ron Fowler to replace Rep. Stacy.

The open seats for the Democrats will have to put some muscle behind HD21 to hold Rep. Sauls‘ seat in an area that is more Trump-friendly than you might think. Where in HD98 Trump will help Democrat’s efforts to hold the seat. In HD50 the Democrats will have to work but should hold it, and have to work at Rep. Nurrenbern’s seat in HD15 which is competitive but it’s one the Democrats should hold.

All of these predictions are at the whims of what happens with the most volatile national environment in recent American history. You have one candidate constantly on trial, and the other can barely walk. Anything either does will have a huge impact on these races.
Then there is abortion. The abortion issue being on the November ballot is highly unlikely to help Republicans, the question is how much will it help Democrats. Most Republicans publicly state it will only be a 2-3% advantage for the Democrats which would put seats like HD17 and HD100 in jeopardy. If the advantage is 8-9% as Democrats are touting then districts like HD31 and HD69 could be in jeopardy. For now let’s assume it’s in that 3-4% range which puts the democrats in position to pick up +/- 5 seats.

HD12 Jamie Johnson’s ‘22 vote percentage was 52.11%.
Rep. Jamie Johnson – D
Total Raised this Cycle: $30,588
Cash on Hand: $19,311
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $19,311 
Mike Jones – R
Total Raised this Cycle: $40,558
Cash on Hand: $36,028
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $36,028

HD14  Rep. Ashley Aune’s ‘22 vote percentage was 53.19%.
Rep. Ashley Aune – D
Total Raised this Cycle: $48,355
Cash on Hand: $53,914
AshPAC
Cash on Hand: $3,067
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $56,981
Frank Pendleton – R
Total Raised this Cycle: $5,439
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $5,119

HD15 Rep. Maggie Nurrenbern won the district with 53.3% in 2022.
Mike Jones – R
Total Raised this Cycle: $N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $N/A
Kenneth Jamison – D
Total Raised this Cycle: $40,004
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $38,619

HD17 Rep. Bill Allen’s 22 vote percentage was 50.2%.
Rep. Bill Allen – R
Total Raised this Cycle: $33,933.
Cash on Hand: $ 14,300
Buck Up PAC
Cash on Hand: $3,513
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $17,813
Shirley Mata – D
Total Raised this Cycle: 42,847
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $32,118

HD20 Rep. Aaron McMullen won the district with 58.2% in 2022.
Mike Steinmeyer – R
Total Raised this Cycle: $7,962
Cash on Hand: $6,772
Missouri Conservative Principles PAC
Cash on Hand: $N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $6,772
Clarence Franklin – D
Total Raised this Cycle: $N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $N/A

HD21 Rep. Robbie Sauls won the district with 52.2% in 2022.
Marjain Breitenbach – R
Total Raised this Cycle: $ N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $N/A
Will Jobe – D
Total Raised this Cycle: $2,626
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $2,283

HD31 Rep. Dan Stacy won the district with 56.8% in 2022.
Ron Fowler – R
Total Raised this Cycle: $22,000
Cash on Hand:$20,127
Blue Springs PAC
Cash on Hand: $N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $20,127
Jeremy Rowan – D
Total Raised this Cycle: $6,002.
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $2,379

HD34  Rep. Kemp Strickler won the district with 50.14% in 2022.
Rep. Kemp Strickler – D
Total Raised this Cycle: $42,804
Cash on Hand: $38,202
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $38,202
JC Crossley – R
Total Raised this Cycle: $912
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $900

HD38 Rep. Chris Lonsdale was unopposed in the 2022 general election.
Rep. Chris Lonsdale – R
Total Raised this Cycle: $41,565
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $41,340
Martin Jacobs – D
Total Raised this Cycle: $32,998
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $23,268

HD47 Rep. Adrian Plank won the district with 52.16% in 2022.
Adrian Plank – D 
Total Raised this Cycle: $27,029
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $16,857
John Potter – R 
Total Raised this Cycle: $N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $N/A

HD50  Rep. Douglas Mann won the district with 55.20% in 2022.
Jeffrey Kyle Basinger- D
Total Raised this Cycle: $4,695
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $7,059
Gregg Bush – D
Total Raised this Cycle: $23,025
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $17,749
Joshua Ray Blakeman – R
Total Raised this Cycle: $N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $N/A

HD69 Rep. Adam Schnelting won the district with 59.70% in 2022.
Scott A. Miller – R
Total Raised this Cycle: $N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $N/A
Chris Chapman – D
Total Raised this Cycle: $3,908
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $1,212

HD96 Rep. Brad Christ won the district with 54.50% in 2022.
Brad Christ – R
Total Raised this Cycle: $119,539
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $87,325
Leslie Derrington – D
Total Raised this Cycle: $18,882
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $7,941

HD 98 Rep. Deb Lavender won the district with 51.50% in 2022.
Jaclyn Zimmermann – D
Total Raised this Cycle: $5,520
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $3,860
HD 98 Carol Veillette – R
Total Raised this Cycle: $N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $N/A

HD100 Philip Oehlerking won the district with 50.5% in 2022.
Philip Oehlerking – R
Total Raised this Cycle: $23,219
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $15,923
Colin Lovett – D
Total Raised this Cycle: $52,450
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $31,564

HD 105 Rep. Adam Schwadron won the district with 49.3% in 2022.
Colin Wellenkamp – R
Total Raised this Cycle: $ N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $N/A
Ron Odenthal – D
Total Raised this Cycle: $N/A
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $N/A

HD133  Rep. Melanie Stinnett won the district with 52.4% in 2022.
Melanie Stinnett – R
Total Raised this Cycle: $74,080
Cash on Hand: $63,360
Heart of SGF PAC
Cash on Hand: $22,475
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $85,835
HD133 Derrick Nowlin – D
Total Raised this Cycle: $7,835
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $6,091

HD136 Rep. Stephanie Hein won the district with 50.7% in 2022.
Stephanie Hein – D
Total Raised this Cycle: $63,258
Cash on Hand: $56,858
Leading With Hein PAC
Cash on Hand: $2,000
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $58,858
Jim Robinette – R
Total Raised this Cycle: $8,120
TOTAL CASH ON HAND: $8,053