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House tipsheet: July 2020

  

Republicans 

HD6 (R+) Rep. Tim Remole is term-limited.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: SAFE LEWIS
Ed Lewis is a longtime teacher who graduated from Mizzou and lives in Moberly. 

(R) Ed Lewis
Contributions this election: $8,018
Cash on hand: $3,965
(D) Terrence Fiala
Contributions this election: $894.34
Cash on hand: $526.39


HD8 (R+) Rep. Jim Neely is term-limited.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: LIKELY RAILSBACK
This a four-way race with candidates who honestly could be better than other candidates in several districts. Gary Stroud is an auctioneer from Lawson. Darlene Breckenridge is the mayor of Clinton. Randy Railsback is a farmer from Hamilton, and David Woody is the Clinton County Clerk. Woody’s experience running and his outside help give him the slight advantage, but Railsback is from a very prominent family and probably started out as the favorite in his race in the Great Northwest. 

(R) Gary Stroud
Contributions this election: N/A
Cash on hand: N/A
(R) Darlene Breckenridge 
Contributions this election: $2,615.00
Cash on hand: $1,485.21
(R) Randy Railsback
Contributions this election: $5,140.90
Cash on hand: $2,887.88
(R) David Woody
Contributions this election: $7,921.20
Cash on hand: $5,143.96


HD9 (R+) Rep. Sheila Solon is term-limited.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: LEAN VANSCHOIACK
Dean VanSchoiack is an auctioneer and real estate broker. He is the clear favorite. Tina Goodrick has some momentum and outside help, including from YAL. 

(R) Dean VanSchoiack
Contributions this election: $6,280.00
Cash on hand: $3,851.41
(R) Tina Goodrick
Contributions this election: $7,922.98
Cash on hand: $9,220.30


HD12 (R+) Rep. Ken Wilson is term-limited.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: SAFE HURLBERT
Josh Hurlbert is a Smithville alderman and a former Graves staffer. He is the clear favorite and a freshman to watch. 

(R) Josh Hurlbert
Contributions this election: $4,735.00
Cash on hand: $22,655.19
(R) Deannette Lemons
Contributions this election: N/A
Cash on hand: N/A


HD16 (R+) Rep. Noel Shull is term-limited.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: LEAN REPUBLICAN 
This race will be one of the targeted races in the fall. With no primaries, everyone is looking to November. 

(R) Chris Brown
Contributions this election: $1,150.00
Cash on hand: $11,434.42
(D) James Shackelford
Contributions this election: $14,569.74
Cash on hand: $15,734.34


HD33 (R+) Rep. Donna Pfautsch is term-limited.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: LEAN SANDER
This race will be a donnybrook with both candidates young men. Sander has more money, but Holt has more roots in the district. Outside help is coming in for Sander, but this will be an unpredictable race. 

(R) Chris Sander
Contributions this election: $16,866.66
Cash on hand: $11,003.86
(R) Alex Holt
Contributions this election: N/A
Cash on hand: N/A


HD34 (R+) Rep. Rebecca Roeber passed away creating a vacancy.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: LEAN ROEBER
Rick Roeber worked hard to avoid a primary in the race to replace his wife who passed away during her term. The Democrats are excited about their recruit in Hager, but the local Republicans are just as fired up to elect Roeber to his wife’s seat. This will be one of the most heated races in the fall. 

(R) Rick Roeber
Contributions this election: $3,705.26
Cash on hand: $8,562.95
(D) Chris Hager
Contributions this election: $2,116.00
Cash on hand: $1,736.35


HD40 (R+) Rep. Jim Hansen is term-limited.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: SAFE PERKINS
Chad Perkins is the former mayor of Bowling Green and a business owner in Pike County —  and is the favorite. He will be a person to watch in the Capitol. Ron Staggs is a commissioner in Monroe County and will be competitive. Heather Dodd is from a farm family in Madison. Tommy Schultz is a farmer and veteran from Curryville. Woodrow Polston is a minister from Louisiana. 

(R) Chad Perkins
Contributions this election: $5,708.70
Cash on hand: $6,608.73
(R) Heather Dodd
Contributions this election: $3,355.00
Cash on hand: $1,976.32
(R) Ron Staggs
Contributions this election: $1,492.00
Cash on hand: $3,248.24
(R) Woodrow Polston
Contributions this election: $934.38
Cash on hand: $14.96
(R) Tommy Schultz
Contributions this election: N/A
Cash on hand: N/A


HD48 (R+) Rep. Dave Muntzel is term-limited.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: LIKELY BARAGARY
When Cooper County Presiding Commissioner Don Baragary got in the race, he was the favorite and will likely be in Jefferson City this January. 

(R) Tim Taylor
Contributions this election: $4,555.00
Cash on hand: $923.06
(R) Don Baragary
Contributions this election: $7,320.00
Cash on hand: $3,581.99
(D) Bill Betteridge
Contributions this election: $8,340.00
Cash on hand: $1,050.00


HD51 (R+) Rep. Dean Dohrman is term-limited.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: SAFE GREGORY
Kurtis Gregory is a farmer and former football player at Mizzou. He will win this race and is one of the more impressive legislators to enter the house in several cycles. 

(R) Kurtis Gregory
Contributions this election: $2,800.00
Cash on hand: $20,878.08


HD53 (R+) Rep. Glen Kolkmeyer is term-limited.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Terry Thompson is a banker and will easily win this seat and be a good fit to fill the large legislative shoes left by Rep. Kolkmeyer. 

(R) Terry Thompson
Contributions this election: $1,500.00
Cash on hand: $33,155.27


HD56 (R+) Rep. Jack Bondon is running for state Senate.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: TOSS UP
Chip Anderson is from Belton and very active in the community and started out with the lead. Mike Davis has hit the ground hard and is receiving a lot of help through YAL and has made this race a toss up with his momentum these last few weeks.

(R) Chip Anderson
Contributions this election: $34,512.06
Cash on hand: $22,990.74
(R) Mike Davis
Contributions this election: $10,010.00
Cash on hand: $21,918.07


HD58 (R+) Rep. David Wood resigned, creating a vacancy.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: LEAN HALEY
Williard Haley is a teacher and a farmer from Eldon. Tim Faber is a pastor who served on the Kidder City Council. Give Haley the edge. 

(R) Willard Haley
Contributions this election: $8,574.37
Cash on hand: $14,225.70
(R) Tim Faber
Contributions this election: $4,801.00
Cash on hand: $2735.42


HD62 (R+) Rep. Tom Hurst is term-limited.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: TOSS UP
Chris Beyer is a former Capitol staffer who has run for office before and is getting help from YAL. He might have the most help of anybody on the ground. Bruce Sassman is a local businessman who put $20,000 of his own money into his campaign. 

(R) Bruce Sassman
Contributions this election: $6,350.00
Cash on hand: $9,854.87
(R) Chris Beyer
Contributions this election: $2,875.00
Cash on hand: $4,056.03


HD63 (R+) Rep. Bryan Spencer is term-limited.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: LEAN WEST
Richard West has had a career in law enforcement and is the mayor of New Melle. He’s opened up the lead. While Dale Schaper is a former school board member and well known. However, He has been an active Democrat in the past and the St. Charles County Republicans have been reminding voters of this for over a month now. 

(R) Richard West
Contributions this election: $4,300.00
Cash on hand: $2,383.78
(R) Dale Schaper
Contributions this election: $800.00
Cash on hand: $800.00


HD106 (R+0.3) Rep. Chrissy Sommer is term-limited.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: LEAN  REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: SAFE SCHWADRON
No primaries in a race that the Democrats intend to make competitive in the fall. 

(R) Adam Schwadron
Contributions this election: $2,025.00
Cash on hand: $4,207.19
(D) Cindy Berne
Contributions this election: $20,137.00
Cash on hand: $15,389.09


HD115 (D+3.7) Rep. Elaine Gannon is term-limited.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: LEAN  REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: LEAN CORDWAY
Cyndi Buchheit-Cordway is from Festus and works in medical records with Mercy Hospital. Her husband is an elected official at the county level. Ryan Jones previously worked for AFP and is an activist from the DeSoto area. Cordway has the advantage in the primary, but this is a competitive seat where a race could emerge in the fall. 

(R) Cyndi Buchheit-Cordway
Contributions this election: $30,312.42
Cash on hand: $21,065.04
(R) Ryan Jones
Contributions this election: $11,403
Cash on hand: $6,693.09


HD122 (R+11.5) Rep. Steve Lynch is term-limited.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Bill Hardwick is a veteran and is unopposed in the primary. He will easily win the general. 

(R) Bill Hardwick
Contributions this election: $15,266.89
Cash on hand: $7,954.48


HD124 (R+4.7) Rep. Rocky Miller is term-limited.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: TOSS UP
Lisa Thomas is a psychiatrist from Lake Ozark. Duell Lauderdale is a staffer for Rep. Ron Hicks. Benny Earl Thomas is a physician who lives at the Four Seasons resort area and whose wife is Camden County Commissioner. Luke Hagedorn is a businessman who has the deepest roots in the area and previously worked for the Republican House Caucus. Recent polls show a tight race between the two doctors. 

(R) Lisa Thomas
Contributions this election: $25,296.00
Cash on hand: $19,095.26
(R) Duell Lauderdale
Contributions this election: $9,748.00
Cash on hand: $4,940.00
(R) Benny Earl Thomas
Contributions this election: $41,766.47
Cash on hand: $8,882.37
(R) Luke Hagedorn
Contributions this election: $6,615.00
Cash on hand: $5,697.00


HD125 (R+4.6) Rep. Warren Love is term-limited.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: SAFE KALBERLOH
Jim Kalberloh is a restaurant owner from Lowry City and is the favorite to win the race. 

(R) Jim Kalberloh
Contributions this election: $10,265.00
Cash on hand: $4,874.53


HD130 (R+14.6) Rep. Jeff Messenger is term-limited.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: LEAN MITCHELL
Bishop Davidson is running as a religious conservative from Republic and is running a great race. Macy Mitchell will be a rising star in the Republican caucus if he reaches Jefferson City. A successful businessman in Republic, Mitchell should win this race and be a Republican star in southwest Missouri.

(R) Bishop Davidson
Contributions this election: $34,526.47
Cash on hand: $17,959.68
(R) Macy Mitchell
Contributions this election: $39,240.00
Cash on hand: $24,092.23


HD131 (R+10.7) Rep. Sonya Anderson is term-limited.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: SAFE OWEN
Bill Owen is a banker who previously served in the House back in the pre-term limit days. He will be a force for passing legislation in the next few sessions. 

(R) Bill Owen
Contributions this election: $27,884.10
Cash on hand: $14,773.51


HD134 (R+7.1) Rep. Elijah Haahr is term-limited.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: LEAN RILEY
Alex Riley is an attorney who attends James River Church in Springfield and with his fundraising advantage, looks to have a lead. Daniel Romine is the son of former Senator Gary Romine and is working hard on the ground. 

(R) Alex Riley
Contributions this election: $35,031.29
Cash on hand: $20,085.88
(R) Daniel Romine
Contributions this election: $5,250
Cash on hand: $2,674.32


HD140 (R+17.8) Rep. Lynn Morris is term-limited.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: TOSS UP
Jamie Gragg has worked in the ministry from Ozark. Jason Shaffer is an attorney and former alderman and lives in Ozark. Tricia Derges is a doctor, runs a medical clinic, and lives in Nixa. Jeff Parnell is well known to state Republicans and is a businessman from Garrison. Parnell is probably the leader of the pack in this one, but it could be a tight four-way. 

(R) Jamie Ray Gragg
Contributions this election: $2,397.52
Cash on hand: $158.94
(R) Jason Shaffer
Contributions this election: $17,310.00
Cash on hand: $8,513.06
(R) Tricia Derges
Contributions this election: $12,276.73
Cash on hand: $0
(R) Jeff Parnell
Contributions this election: $1,615.00
Cash on hand: $4.15


HD142 (R+9.9) Rep. Robert Ross is term-limited.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: LEAN COOK
Terry Brown is a minister from Cabool. Bennie Cook is a deputy sheriff and former congressional staffer. This race will be close. 

(R) Terry Brown
Contributions this election: $9,950.50
Cash on hand: $6,845.50
(R) Bennie Cook
Contributions this election: $2,998.00
Cash on hand: $2,360.40


HD143 (R+7.2) Rep. Jeff Pogue is term-limited.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: LEAN COPELAND 
Jack Bates is a cattle farmer from Thayer. Jaret Holden is a Shannon County businessman and is being supported by YAL. Frank DeVenuto is a Navy veteran and civics instructor from Salem. Ron Copeland is a former highway patrolman from Salem and the favorite to win.  

(R) Jack Bates
Contributions this election: $1600.00
Cash on hand: $979.70
(R) Jaret Holden
Contributions this election: $16,471.47
Cash on hand: $670.03
(R) Ron Copeland
Contributions this election: $23,492.25
Cash on hand: $12,721.84
(R) Frank DeVenuto
Contributions this election: $16,705.00
Cash on hand: $5,860.00


HD147 (R+11.7) Rep. Kathy Swan is term-limited.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: SAFE WALLINGFORD
Senator Wayne Wallingford is returning to the House seat he left eight years ago to serve in the Senate.
(R) Wayne Wallingford
Contributions this election: $158,260.39
Cash on hand: $89,770.14


HD148 (R+9.9) Rep. Holly Rehder is term-limited.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: TOSS UP
Will Perry from Scott City is a veteran, works in real estate, and is also getting help from YAL. Jamie Burger is the former Scott County Presiding Commissioner and is a fixture of the Scott County business community. If I had to pick I’d go with Burger, but Perry has impressed. These are two of the strongest candidates in the field; they just so happen to be in the same district. 

(R) Will Perry
Contributions this election: $26,574.55
Cash on hand: $11,810.61
(R) Jamie Burger
Contributions this election: $41,568
Cash on hand: $24,037.46


HD153 (R+12.2) Rep. Jeff Shawan is running for the Senate.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: LEAN ATCHISON
This race includes the northern half of Butler County as well as Carter and Ripley. Larry Kimbrow is a veteran and has worked for Three Rivers College. He is well thought of and will get a good portion of the Butler County vote. He’s running a good race and will make this one close. Skip Johnson is from Ripley County and ran surprisingly well in 2018. Darrell Atchison is in insurance, so he has a good deal of name ID and is on the local co-op board. He should win this race.  

(R) Larry Kimbrow
Contributions this election: $23,106.34
Cash on hand: $14,850.47
(R) Skip Johnson
Contributions this election: $NA
Cash on hand: $NA
(R) Darrell Atchison
Contributions this election: $32,972.70
Cash on hand: $16,053.74


HD155 (R+16.6) Rep. Karla Eslinger is running for Senate.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: TOSS UP
Joe Combs is a retired school superintendent as is Eslinger who lives in Bradleyville. Travis Smith is a businessman from Dora and has run, by far, the more active campaign. 

(R) Joe Combs
Contributions this election: $3,500
Cash on hand: $2,400
(R) Travis Smith
Contributions this election: $21,500
Cash on hand: $6,087.60


HD156 (R+16.6) Rep. Jeff Justus is term-limited.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: LIKELY BEST
This will be a spirited primary with Karen Best, a former school superintendent and former Mayor of Branson. Brain Seitz is a veteran and Branson businessman. 

(R) Karen Best
Contributions this election: $20,750
Cash on hand: $12,105.30
(R) Brian Seitz
Contributions this election: $5,093.57
Cash on hand: $1,549.22


HD157 (R+16.0) Rep. Mike Moon is running for state Senate.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: LEAN BOGGS
Nathan Bowen is from Pierce City and works in insurance. Mitch Boggs is a retired corrections officer from Mount Vernon and has worked as a legislative assistant in Jefferson City. Boggs has a barn building business and is a volunteer firefighter. He has a big cash lead and should be considered the favorite. 

(R) Nathan Bowen
Contributions this election: $5,662.17
Cash on hand: $1,142.79
(R) Wally Long
Contributions this election: $5,579.31
Cash on hand: $1,808.59
(R) Mitch Boggs
Contributions this election: $43,529
Cash on hand: $19,470.64


Democrats

HD15 (D+6.1) Rep. Jon Carpenter is term-limited.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: LIKELY DEMOCRAT
Maggie Nurrenbern is a teacher and a top recruit by House Dems that ensures they will retain HD 15. She will be a legislator to watch in the capitol. 

(D) Maggie Nurrenbern
Contributions this election: $60,755.68
Cash on hand: $49,289.06


HD24 (D+37.1) Rep. Judy Morgan is term-limited.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE DEMOCRAT PRIMARY: LEAN WEBER
Emily Weber is a graphic designer whose husband is an IBEW member. She has been very active locally and a top candidate. Connor Nowalk is an educator and is also a top candidate. The Democratic Caucus will have a solid addition from the 24th either way. 

(D) Emily Weber
Contributions this election: $27,472.37
Cash on hand: $24,329.42
(D) Connor Nowalk
Contributions this election: $15,524.96
Cash on hand: $14,649.38
(D) Sammie Arnold
Contributions this election: $1,918.00
Cash on hand: $541.36


HD37 (D+10.8) Rep. Joe Runions is term-limited.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: LIKELY  DEMOCRAT 
There are no primaries in the 37th. Big John Boyd has his work cut out for him to pull off an upset in this solidly Democratic district. Vying to replace Rep. Joe Runions is Grandview Alderwoman Annette Turnbaugh. She starts out as the favorite as it has been decades since a Republican-held this seat. 

(R) John Boyd
Contributions this election: $3,131.15
Cash on hand: $181.75
(D) Annette Turnbaugh
Contributions this election: $13,075 ?
Cash on hand: $10,646 ?


HD83 (D+16.4) Rep. Gina Mitten is term-limited.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE DEMOCRAT PRIMARY: LEAN DOLL 
Jo Doll is the favorite in the race to replace the imminently respected Rep. Gina Mitten. Doll is a physical therapist and has served on a local school board. Challenging her is attorney Tyler Merkel. He is also an outstanding recruit. Merkel is from the Maplewood portion of the district. Doll seems to have education groups supporting her, while Merkel has more labor money behind him. Either are going to be top-flight legislators, but both have big shoes to fill. 

(D) Jo Doll
Contributions this election: $27,923.25
Cash on hand: $21,572.40
(D) Tyler Merkel
Contributions this election: $23,509
Cash on hand: $7,222.55


HD86 (D+36.5) Rep. Maria Chappelle-Nadal is term-limited.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE DEMOCRAT
Former University City Mayor and the former holder of this seat, Joe Adams, will return to the Capitol in January unopposed. He is a consummate professional and has been missed. 

(D) Joe Adams
Contributions this election: $4,826.31
Cash on hand: $4,701.76


HD93 (D+10.7) Rep. Bob Burns is running for County Council.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: TOSS UP
The Republicans have a good recruit in this traditionally Democratic district in Gabriel Jones. He is raising a good amount of money and will mount a serious campaign. Bridget Moore is the type of candidate the Democrats needed to recruit to keep the seat. She is very active in the community and will make for a very competitive general election. 

(R) Gabriel Jones
Contributions this election: $20,655.54
Cash on hand: $7,954.22
(D) Bridget Moore
Contributions this election: $27,694
Cash on hand: $19,033.47