TWMP Column: What comes of all of this? Part 3

So after a tumultuous end of session, and two more special sessions including 4 PQs in 5 months what will come of all of this drama, besides a new pool for Chuck Hatfield?

Let’s start with the PQs.

PQ #1 The abortion referendum

From the second amendment 3 passed this was going back on the ballot, and a PQ was going to happen to place it there. If there is ever an asterisk over a PQ it would be on abortion PQs. It’s an issue that is only discussed in ridiculous terms and compromise is never possible.

Can it pass? Yes, but it won’t be easy.

There is a confidence in the pro-life camp coming from closing the gap at the end of last year’s campaign. Further, MRL and Susan Klein wisely insisted on putting the ballot candy of trans language in the ballot measure. I’m not sure they can win a straight-up vote on abortion being illegal or not, but they certainly can win on trans issues.

Since the measure was placed on the ballot, there has been some sustained momentum with Tom Estes doing a lot of grassroots organizing, and First Lady Claudia Kehoe stepping forward to be the treasurer of the pro-life PAC so good things are happening.

On the other hand the pro-choice side is well funded, and it’s a fact that Missourians start off wanting to vote no and go from there, and they will be not only well funded, but they will likely have a significant fundraising advantage. I cannot remember a ballot measure which the no side had more funding and lost a ballot measure.

I’d say that today it’s a 50/50 proposition that it passes.

PQ #2 Prop A

Just to be candid, I’m not a Prop A fan. It would be nice if the gubment focused on running the gubment well, and left businesses the hell alone, but that is probably a pipe dream.

However, the people of this state, and almost every other vote for minimum wage increases almost every time they are on the ballot, and they did again last year.

So the folks who organized last year’s effort will be able to make the argument that the people of Missouri spoke, and the politicians overruled them. They can couple that with their own ballot candy and this time put it on as a constitutional amendment.

This will be a real litmus test of whether or not the business community that demanded the Prop A fix be passed steps up to defend their law with contributions when it’s on the ballot again. Normally they don’t.

I’d say it’s a 55/45 chance that a new Prop A is placed in the constitution.

PQ #3 7-1 Map

What a mess. This is what happens when you let the Washington folks have any say in what happens in Missourah.

Don’t get me wrong, I think there is a case to draw a 7-1 map. Just look across the river in Illinois. However, this was a sloppy process, that was done sloppily.

The 7-1 map is being attacked on three fronts.

1. That mid-decade redistricting is illegal. I don’t think this will actually result in the map getting tossed.

2. They put a precinct into both the 4th and 5th CD. I know this was a sloppy process, but I cannot imagine it was this sloppy. It kinda depends on who you talk to if this is real or not, but the Republicans have gotten a lot quieter about defending this over the last two weeks. I’d like to think this isn’t real, but I’m getting more skeptical. Either way the Governor was right to just sign it and let the courts deal with it. If there is a precinct put in two districts then I actually do believe the Cole County Circuit Court will kick it out, and if not the Western District will.

3. The citizens veto. It’s the same maneuver that vetoed Right to Work. Voters are pissed, and in a world where Jackson County voters voted 85% to 15% to recall Frank White I think they would love to veto any law they could.

So the real question is do they get their signatures? It will take around 106k signatures to stop the law and place it on the ballot. That is much more doable than getting signatures for a ballot measure, and I think they have the money to collect them.

I’d say is a 60/40, and growing proposition that this map gets bounced.

PQ #4 IP Reform

This is the one that is head-scratching, and again I should tell you that I personally believe that some IP reform is necessary. However, I really don’t see how you sell this IP reform. There might be some space to bargain with making the statutory IP a little easier, and protect it from the legislature for a period of years while making the constitutional IP a little harder.

This IP is just taking something away from the voters without giving them anything. Then the part about IPs the legislature puts on the ballot are easier to pass than the citizens’ IPs is just kinda ridiculous.

More importantly I can name several groups who are pledging big money to spike this, groups who can back up their threat. Most importantly, ain’t no future messing with Sam Licklider.

I’d say this starts out 70/30 that it doesn’t pass.

So if you take all 4 PQs and ask what will actually change in Missouri public policy for those 4 degradations of the Missouri Senate I put the over under at +/- 1.5 of these actually becoming law, and I’ll take the under.

The other fall out is this is the point where Missouri Senators have to look at where they are taking the chamber and ask is this good for the state, and themselves as senators.

Every single PQ that is passed degrades the Senate by making each individual senator less relevant. Every PQ that is passed power becomes more centralized with leadership making each senator less important…kinda like the House.

I understand that some senators feel pressured to sign PQs to stay in good graces with leadership…again kinda like the House… but this might be a touch point where some senators decide they worked very hard to leave the House and get to the Senate and they might like trying being senators for a bit.

This session I’ll look to Senators Cierpiot and Bernskoetter as the pivotal senators. There is a loose group of 4 that probably will be reluctant to vote for PQs, which means you would need two more, and those two senior senators, who do have some regard for the institution, and before this year have been very skeptical about voting for PQs.

I think the question I hope they are asked is do you want to leave the Senate better than you found it, and would another PQ help you leave it better or worse.

That was Part 3 of 3