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Senate tipsheet 2020

   

State Senate

Contested seats in 2020: 17

#1 SD 27 (R+16.4) Sen. Wayne Wallingford is term-limited. 
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: TOSS UP
This race is the unquestionably hottest in the state, and the fundraising quarter reflected that: Even in a quarter that included session and a global pandemic, nearly $30,000 was raised.
Rep. Holly Rehder brought in more than $12,000 from contributions from all over southeast Missouri, while Rep. Kathy Swan reported raising nearly $15,000 from a list of groups in healthcare, insurance, and firefighters.
The current money chase sits with Rehder having a fundraising advantage of just under $50,000. The logic is with half the primary votes in Cape, Rehder will have to have a fundraising advantage to win, and it seems that she is likely to have one. Look for lots and lots of late money to come in this race in the last 30 days, and look for lots of that money to be spent on some of the most negative ads of the cycle.
(R) Rep. Holly Rehder
Contributions this quarter: $12,528
Cash on hand: $198,962
PAC: Holly PAC
Cash on hand: $
(R) Rep. Kathy Swan
Contributions this quarter: $14,534
Cash on hand: $150,044

#2 SD 31 (R+6.2) Sen. Ed Emery is term-limited. 
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: LEAN BONDON
The quarter was relatively quiet in SD 31 as well, with former Rep. Rick Brattin raising $6,500 with contributions from around the Kansas City area, but also including Cathy Jo Loy and Bev Ehlen with the most notable contribution being from Grow Missouri. His PAC, the Brattin Brigade, has been silent since the $100,000 contribution from the Conservative Caucus.
Rep. Jack Bondon raised nearly $10,000 this quarter from a collection of donors around the state including the Realtors, Dentists, and gaming communities.
This race is just over half Cass County, an increasingly suburban county, and that means that money will matter a great deal. Currently, Bondon is our frontrunner with a roughly $125,000 fundraising lead. Thus the race is still leaning toward Bondon. It’s unknown how much CL PAC is willing to fund Brattin, and without their help, Brattin would be in a difficult position.
(R) Rep. Jack Bondon 
Contributions this quarter: $9,375
Cash on hand: $192,714
PAC: Western Missouri Leadership
Cash on hand: $36,359
(R) Fmr. Rep Rick Brattin 
Contributions this quarter: $6,510
Cash on hand: $14,411
PAC: The Brattin Brigade PAC
Cash on hand: $94,478

#3 SD 33 (R+15.7) Sen. Mike Cunningham is term-limited.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: LEAN ROSS
Rep. Robert Ross took in around $4,000 with contributions around the state, including from Republican activist Bev Ehlen. His Team Robert PAC has conserved his nearly $50,000 on hand. Rep. Karla Eslinger had a slow quarter after starting her campaign with a $150,000 loan. She raised just over $4,000 with one notable contribution being from the State Fire Marshal Tim Bean.
Former Rep. Van Kelly has a relatively quiet fundraising quarter raising just under $2,000 in a race looking as if he will have to self-fund. However, he does have the capacity to do so.
With the geography breaking down as follows:
Douglas 11%
Howell 22%
Oregon 8%
Ozark 5%
Ripley 7%
Texas 13%
Webster 20%
Wright 13%

Ross has a solid claim on Texas and a portion of Howell Counties. Eslinger has a strong claim on the rest of Howell including West Plains, and former Rep. Kelly is strong in Douglas and Ozark. The fight is likely in Webster and Wright counties, and money will matter there. As of today, that gives Rep. Ross a slight edge.
(R) Rep. Robert Ross 
Contributions this  quarter: $4,201
Cash on hand: $132,713
PAC: Team Robert
Cash on hand: $47,134
(R) Former Rep. Van Kelly
Contributions this quarter: $1,805
Cash on hand: $72,747
(R) Rep. Karla Eslinger 
Contributions this quarter: $4,380
Cash on hand: $154,723
(D) Tammy Harty
Contributions this quarter: $780
Cash on hand: $3,851

#4 SD 29 (R+19.9) Sen. David Sater is term-limited.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: TOSS UP
This race may come down to how David Cole presents himself. It’s likely that Rep. Moon can get to his right on style even if not on substance. Cole seems to need to have a financial advantage to win. The question will be how much of a financial advantage, and whatever the answer is to that question, it’s probably going to be influenced by internal Republican Senate Caucus politics. As of now, the cash race is even. If the cash race is even 100 days from now, you assume Moon has an advantage.
(R) David Cole 
Contributions this quarter: $16,750
Cash on hand: $124,180
PAC: Southwest Missouri Conservative Values PAC
Cash on hand: $3,500
(R) Rep. Mike Moon 
Contributions this quarter: $4,240
Cash on hand: $39,510
PAC: Table Rock Conservative PAC
Cash on hand: $94,477

#5 SD 25 (R+11.4) Sen. Doug Libla is term-limited. 
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: TOSS UP
The fundraising quarter was always going to be slowed by the coronavirus and Rep. Jeff Shawan being in session. However, bootheel farmer Jason Bean jumped into the race and raised a great deal of early money leading the quarter with over $90,000.
Bean’s fundraising report listed several area farmers including the Haggards, Rones, and Rowlands. It was an impressive first report and highlights the central issue of the race. While there are more votes in the hills than the flatlands, Bean is the only candidate from the flatlands, and if he can get close to Shawan in fundraising, he has an advantage.
Shawan posted a $15,000 quarter with contributions mostly from Poplar Bluff while Eddy Justice raised just $3,600 from a collection of people around the state.
Former Rep. Steve Cookson only raised $100, but he did loan his campaign $50,000 which he hopes will inspire other contributions. He also filed as Carrol Steve Cookson. That could become important as his father is a coaching legend in Stoddard County. Justice is still in second place in the money chase but will have to improve quickly to stay ahead of Bean.
(R) Rep. Jeff Shawan 
Contributions this quarter: $15,612
Cash on hand: $272,876
PAC: Conservative Future Fund
Cash on hand: $13,528
(R) Eddy Justice
Contributions this quarter: $3,665
Cash on hand: $133,298
PAC: Justice for All
Cash on hand: $9,790
(R) Former Rep. Steve Cookson 
Contributions this quarter: $50,100
Cash on hand: $70,600
(R) Jason Bean
Contributions this quarter: $92,909
Cash on hand: $91,957

#6 SD 5 (D+39.9) Sen. Jamilah Nasheed is term-limited. 
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: SAFE DEMOCRAT PRIMARY: TOSS UP
This race, more than any other, has been frozen with the coronavirus outbreak. Voters in the City of St. Louis seem to take the stay at home orders perhaps more seriously than any other in the state so the door-to-door campaigning would be counterproductive. You would assume that environment that would favor Rep. Steven Roberts as he has the fundraising advantage, but these are unchartered waters.
As of now, this race seems a bit frozen in time and is likely to be frozen more than any other in the state into even early June. Because of those variables look for the always unpredictable 5th to be even more unpredictable in 2020.
(D) Rep. Steven Roberts
Contributions this quarter: $28,244
Cash on hand: $95,310
(D) Alderwoman Megan Green
Contributions this quarter: $16,093
Cash on hand: $27,227
(D) Michelle Sherod
Contributions this election: $21,963
Cash on hand: $39,632

#7 SD 3 (R+4.1) Sen. Gary Romine was term-limited prior to receiving an appointment. 
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: LEAN  SCISM
This race was turned on its head the last day of filing when Rep. Elaine Gannon filed. She has a lengthy narrative that could make the race competitive. She is from Bismarck in north St. Francois County, her brother is a leading vote-getter on the Farmington City Council, her husband is the County Executive of Jefferson County, and her last name is very well known in Ste. Genevieve.
However, that gets to why Kent Scism is still the favorite. The Scism name ID is worth millions, and he has put together an impressive war chest. Also, many groups have committed to his campaign before Gannon got in the race. He may also have an advantage in not having a record where Gannon has a voting record that could be attacked in a Republican primary.
Gannon’s entry into the race really complicates things for veteran Josh Barrett who, being from St. Francois County, could siphon off some Scism votes in that county but is going to have to have an immense uptick in fundraising to compete.
(R) Kent Scism
Contributions this quarter: $166,540
Cash on hand: $245,970
PAC: Keep Missouri Great
Cash on hand: $5,425
(R) Rep. Elaine Gannon
Contributions this quarter: $2,000
Cash on hand: $4,130
(R) Josh Barrett
Contributions this quarter: $30,386
Cash on hand: $26,685

#8 SD 13 (D+27.5) Sen. Gina Walsh is term-limited. 
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: SAFE DEMOCRAT PRIMARY: LEAN PIERSON JR.
Rep. Tommie Pierson Jr. has done all he can do to solidify his front-runner status on the fundraising end. The two things to keep an eye on are: In recent St. Louis County elections there has been a large gender advantage for women candidates, and Rep. Alan Green is a very seasoned political professional. Don’t count him out yet.
(D) Rep. Tommie Pierson Jr.
Contributions this quarter: $3,874
Cash on hand: $54,152
(D) Rep. Alan Green
Contributions this quarter: $175
Cash on hand: $11,909
(D) Angela Mosley
Contributions this quarter: $550
Cash on hand: $3,069

#9 SD 23 (R+3.3) Sen. Bill Eigel is running for re-election.  
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: SAFE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY: LIKELY  EIGEL 
There were rumors of Senator Eigel having a primary for along the past two years, but it took right up to the end of filing for St. Charles attorney Eric Wulff to file. Wulff is well known enough that he could potentially put together some of the old St. Charles families behind him and make the race competitive. However, the conventional wisdom is that Eigel will be easily re-elected. The practical impact is more probable that some of the money from the CL PAC that could have gone to Rep. Moon and former Rep. Brattin is spent on the 23rd.
(R) Senator Bill Eigel 
Contributions this quarter: $15,291
Cash on hand: $159,278
PAC: Believe in Life and Liberty (BILL)
Cash on hand: $408,216
(R) Eric Wulff
Contributions this quarter: $0
Cash on hand: $0
(D) Richard Orr
Contributions this quarter: $2,925
Cash on hand: $5,541

#10 SD 9 (D+33.9) Sen. Kiki Curls was term-limited prior to receiving an appointment.  
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: SAFE DEMOCRAT PRIMARY: LIKELY WASHINGTON
It took a while, but it appears that Freedom Inc. has settled on a candidate in Rep. Barbara Washington. While her fundraising isn’t top-notch yet, she really wasn’t committed to the race for very long before the coronavirus hit. There is potential for a real primary from Raytown Alderman Ryan Myers, but as of now, she is the front runner.
(D) Rep. Barbara Washington
Contributions this quarter: $8,952
Cash on hand: $14,143
(D) Raytown Alderman Ryan Myers
Contributions this quarter: $250
Cash on hand: $1,253
(R) David Martin
Contributions this quarter: $1,135
Cash on hand: $558

#11 SD 7 (D+20.8) Sen. Jason Holsman was term-limited before being appointed to the PSC.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: SAFE DEMOCRAT PRIMARY: SAFE RAZER
In what was a bit of a surprise, Rep. Michael Brown threw his hat in the ring against heavy favorite Rep. Greg Razer, who has been running for this seat practically since he was elected to the House. Currently, we are putting this race as a safe win for Razer; Brown will have to find a way to raise money and do it quickly as Razer is set for a post-session fundraising haul.
(D) Rep. Greg Razer
Contributions this quarter: $13,779
Cash on hand: $91,869
PAC: KC Neighbors for Progress
Cash on hand: $10,936
(D) Rep. Michael Brown
Contributions this quarter: $0
Cash on hand: $0

#12 SD 15 (R+9.3) Sen. Andrew Koenig is running for re-election.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: GENERAL: LEAN REPUBLICAN
This race will shoot up to No. 1 on our list when the polls close on primary day. As of now, it appears to be on track to become the most expensive state Senate race in Missouri history. Between Senate Republicans and the CL PAC, Koenig will likely have plenty of time to campaign as the fundraising will be there. However, it’s telling that Rep. Deb Lavender posted an $86,000 quarter and Koenig didn’t bring in $10,000.
(R) Sen. Andrew Koenig 
Contributions this quarter: $8,275
Cash on hand: $169,810
Pac: Freedom’s Promise
Cash on hand: $120,977
(D) Rep. Deb Lavender
Contributions this quarter: $86,872
Cash on hand: $337,365
Purple PAC
None reported for April.

#13 SD 19 (R+0.3) Senator Caleb Rowden is running for re-election.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: LEAN REPUBLICAN
This is a general election race but it will likely be No. 2 on our list after the primary. In a race where both candidates will have all the money they need, these reports are as expected. The only thing that could change is that Sen. Caleb Rowden can get far enough ahead that Democrats don’t go all-in on Judy Baker, and wait to fund a Kip Kendrick Senate race in 2024 or have to move money to help Rep. Doug Beck in SD 1. However, it appears both parties will have enough to fully fund SD 19.
(R) Senator Caleb Rowden 
Contributions this quarter: $6,900
Cash on hand: $190,398
PAC: Majority Forward:
Cash on hand: $233,458
(D) Judy Baker
Contributions this quarter: $49,394
Cash on hand: $79,801

#14 SD 1 (D+2.3) Sen. Scott Sifton is term-limited.
TIP SHEET PREDICTION:  LEAN DEMOCRAT
The starkest contrast in any race will be Rep. Doug Beck, a pipefitter, against David Lenihan, the president and CEO of Ponce Health Sciences University, a medical research firm. We will get more into this race as after the primary, but as of now, Beck seems to be doing all he needs to do on fundraising while we have been told that Lenihan can self-fund — so we will see.
(D) Rep. Doug Beck
Contributions this quarter: $32,248
Cash on hand: $233,343
PAC: DougPac
Cash on hand: $191,000
(R) David Lenihan
Contributions this quarter: $50,220
Cash on hand: $30,686

#15 SD 17 (R+0.8) Sen. Lauren Arthur is running for re-election.  
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: LEAN DEMOCRAT
A pretty clear testament to the work Sen. Lauren Arthur has done is that a race she won in a special election two years ago isn’t going to be contested by Republicans. When Arthur dodged Bernie Sanders at the top of the ticket, she was home free.
(D) Senator Lauren Arthur
Contributions this quarter: $8,507
Cash on hand: $366,930
PAC: True North
Cash on hand: $78,159
(R) Mickey Younghanz
Contributions this quarter: N/A
Cash on hand: N/A

#16 SD 21 (R+4.9) Sen. Denny Hoskins is running for re-election.  
TIP SHEET PREDICTION: SAFE REPUBLICAN
Sen. Denny Hoskins was finally bumped out of the top, or bottom depending on how you look at it, spot on our Senate race list more because of the fact that Sen. John Rizzo is unopposed than because of the libertarian opponent that he drew.
(R) Senator Denny Hoskins
Contributions this quarter: $3,775
Cash on hand: $131,435
PAC: Old Drum Conservative
Cash on hand: $73,986
(R) Rep. Dan Houx
Contributions this election: $3,600
Cash on hand: $26,937

#17 SD 11 (D+8.9) Sen. John Rizzo is running for re-election. 
TIP SHEET PREDICTION:  LIKELY DEMOCRAT
Who would have thought that after winning a close primary, then also winning the general by a small margin, that Sen. John Rizzo would be running unopposed? It’s likely a reflection that Rizzo has done as tremendous a job of earning the respect of his constituents back home as he has in the Senate.
(D) Senator John Rizzo
Contributions this quarter: $23,100
Cash on hand: $173,049
PAC: Truth in Campaigns
Cash on hand: $79,791

Open Senate seats in 2022: 6

SD 2 (R+9.9) SAFE REPUBLICAN Senator Bob Onder will be term-limited. 
(R) Senator Bob Onder
Contributions this quarter: $2,775
Cash on hand: $199,857
(R) Speaker Pro Tem John Wiemann
Contributions this quarter: $3,000
Cash on hand: $41,741
(R) Rep. Justin Hill 
Contributions this quarter: $3,950
Cash on hand: $20,136

SD 10 (R+6.7) SAFE REPUBLICAN  Senator Jeannie Riddle will be term-limited. 
(R) Senator Jeannie Riddle 
Contributions this quarter: $4,524
Cash on hand: $85,859
(R) Rep. Travis Fitzwater 
Contributions this quarter: $3,300
Cash on hand: $21,767

SD 12 (R+11.2) SAFE REPUBLICAN  Senator Dan Hegeman is term-limited. 
(R) Senator Dan Hegeman
Contributions this quarter: $3,000
Cash on hand: $104,972
PAC: North Missouri Leadership PAC
Cash on hand: $10,672
(R) Rep. Allen Andrews
Contributions this quarter: N/A
Cash on hand: $18,443
(R) Rep. J. Eggleston
Contributions this quarter: $2,775
Cash on hand: $43,500

SD 22 (R+4.2) SAFE REPUBLICAN  Senator Paul Wieland is term-limited. 
(R) Senator Paul Wieland
Contributions this quarter: $8,792
Cash on hand: $55,543
PAC: Jeffco Now
Cash on hand: $35,184
(R) Rep. Dan Shaul
Contributions this quarter: $1,000
Cash on hand: $10,881
PAC: Jeffco Vision PAC
Cash on hand: N/A
(R) House Floor Leader Rob Vescovo
Contributions this quarter: $15,863
Cash on hand: $138,789
PAC: Mighty Missouri PAC
Cash on hand: $159,078
(R) Rep. Mary Elizabeth Coleman
Contributions this quarter: $1,720
Cash on hand: $25,429
PAC: Conservative Solutions for Missouri
Cash on hand: $1,858
(R) Rep. Becky Ruth
Contributions this quarter: $2,500
Cash on hand: $4,704

SD 24 (D+4.5) LEAN DEMOCRAT Senator Jill Schupp is term-limited. 
(D) Senator Jill Schupp
Contributions this quarter: $654,184
Cash on hand: $944,716
(D) Rep. Tracy McCreery
Contributions this quarter: $468
Cash on hand: $124,049

SD 26 (R+9.8) SAFE REPUBLICAN  Senator Dave Schatz is term-limited.
(R) Senator Dave Schatz
Contributions this quarter: $12,000
Cash on hand: $154,107
(R) Rep. Aaron Griesheimer
Contributions this quarter: $550
Cash on hand: $14,098
PAC: Four Rivers PAC
No contributions reported.
(R) Rep. Nate Tate
Contributions this quarter: N/A
Cash on hand: $22,118
(R) Former Rep. Dave Hinson
Contributions this quarter: $750
Cash on hand: $5,800

Senators seeking re-election in 2022: 11

SD 4 (D+24.5) SAFE DEMOCRAT Senator Karla May will be seeking re-election.
(D) Senator Karla May
Contributions this quarter: N/A
Cash on hand: N/A

SD 6 (R+12.5) SAFE REPUBLICAN Senator Mike Bernskoetter will be seeking re-election. 
(R) Senator Mike Bernskoetter
Contributions this quarter: $750
Cash on hand: $163,112

SD 8 (R+2.1) LEAN  REPUBLICAN Senator Mike Cierpiot will be seeking re-election. 
(R) Senator Mike Cierpiot
Contributions this quarter: $4,650
Cash on hand: $59,102

SD 14 (D+18.9) SAFE DEMOCRAT Senator Brian Williams will be seeking re-election.
(D) Senator Brian Williams
Contributions this quarter: $3,860
Cash on hand: $147,303

SD 16 (R+11.2) SAFE  REPUBLICAN Senator Justin Brown will be seeking re-election. 
(R) Senator Justin Brown
Contributions this quarter: $12,000
Cash on hand: $50,532

SD 18 (R+8.1) SAFE  REPUBLICAN Senator Cindy O’Laughlin will be seeking re-election. 
(R) Senator Cindy O’Laughlin
Contributions this quarter: $6,300
Cash on hand: $65,451
PAC: North Missouri Leadership
Cash on hand: $10,672

SD 20 (R+16.1) SAFE  REPUBLICAN Senator Eric Burlison will be seeking re-election. 
(R) Senator Eric Burlison
Contributions this quarter: $7,998
Cash on hand: $443,866

SD 28 (R+11.8) SAFE  REPUBLICAN Senator Sandy Crawford will be seeking re-election.
(R) Senator Sandy Crawford
Contributions this quarter: $1,750
Cash on hand: $247,183

SD 30 (R+4.6) LEAN  REPUBLICAN Senator Lincoln Hough will be seeking re-election. 
(R) Senator Lincoln Hough
Contributions this quarter: $6,100
Cash on hand: $165,557
PAC: Lincoln PAC
Cash on hand: $44,225

SD 32 (R+19.5) SAFE REPUBLICAN Senator Bill White will be seeking re-election. 
(R) Senator Bill White
Contributions this quarter: $4,900
Cash on hand: $33,479

SD 34 (R+1.3) LEAN REPUBLICAN Senator Tony Luetkemeyer will be seeking re-election. 
(R) Senator Tony Luetkemeyer
Contributions this quarter: $26,600
Cash on hand: $309,877
PAC: Tony PAC
Cash on hand: $25,142