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Tip Sheet: Republican Statewide

  

State Auditor-2022 

Missouri State Treasurer Scott Fitzpatrick 
Scott Fitzpatrick has used his office as state treasurer to campaign effectively as an incumbent in the auditor’s race. Last year, had to loan himself $250,000 to keep up with his opponent. However, last quarter it was Rex Sinquefield who came in with a $250,000 check to level the playing field.

It stands to reason that Fitzpatrick is the favorite if he can just maintain money parity. Thus far, he is doing just that. However, at one time the conventional wisdom was that he needed to get to $1 million, but that number is gonna be higher.

It’s gonna be a fun race to watch.

Contributions this cycle: $500,126
Loans: $250,000
Cash on hand: $528,481
Missourians for a Responsible Budget PAC
Contributions this cycle: $538,730
Cash on hand: $273,654
Total cash on hand for the campaign: $802,1235


State Representative David Gregory

Rep. David Gregory took on an auditor’s race that most thought was foolhardy, but he has proven to be one of the more impressive fundraisers in the party. In a race where the governor, and now the largest Republican donor in modern party history is on the other side, Gregory has held firm with them quarter-for-quarter.

Rep. David Gregory PHOTO/TIM BOMMEL - HOUSE COMMUNICATIONS

Now, he has a few heavy hitters himself including this quarter a max check from David Stewart, and most figure he will add more this quarter.

Now the interesting part is since he has built an unquestionably impressive war chest, does he run an outsider campaign with it?

Contributions this cycle: $442,310
Cash on hand: $439,445
Show Me Growth PAC
Contributions this cycle: $419,167
Cash on hand: $352,798
Total cash on hand for the campaign: $792,243


Governor-2024

Lt. Governor Mike Kehoe
Lt. Governor Mike Kehoe officially jumped into the race early last year and has been literally everywhere ever since. You have to assume to win this race he will have to win the fundraising race by a pretty good chunk and put together a network all around the state that is as personal as political.

The good thing for him is that Kehoe has the best Rolodex in Missouri and when people meet him in person they support him at a greater percentage than anyone in Missouri politics.

There are 10 more fundraising quarters ’til the ‘24 primary. He probably needs to win them all. He is off to a good start.

Contributions this cycle: $526,990
Cash on hand: $483,126
American Dream PAC
Contributions this cycle: $700,710
Cash on hand: $899,507
Total cash on hand for the campaign: $1,382,633


Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft 
The secretary of state has not announced his campaign for governor, but most felt that when he passed on a U.S. Senate run, it was a foregone conclusion that he was running in 2024.

He will begin the campaign with near 100 percent name ID.

Contributions this cycle: $182,217
Cash on hand: $512,290
Committee for Liberty PAC
Contributions this cycle: $134,484
Cash on hand: $199,127
Total cash on hand for the campaign: $711,417


Senator Bill Eigel
Most assume that Sen. Bill Eigel will be a leader in a lieutenant governor or secretary of state race, but there are some in the activist community who see him as governor and not in 2032 — but in 2024.

If he pushes his chips in for 2024, he will start as the underdog and try to catch lightning in a bottle. Which is possible.

Contributions this cycle: $89,783
Cash on hand: $118,851
BILL PAC/100 PAC
Contributions this cycle: $162,094/171,200
Cash on hand: $224,992/52,277
Total cash on hand for the campaign: $396,120


The Bench |  REPUBLICANS

#1 Senate Majority Leader Caleb Rowden
Sen. Caleb Rowden is on the top of this list for a reason. He has more chips to cash in around the state than anyone and is the Senate majority leader in a session where there likely won’t be any competitive general elections.

Rowden has navigated the Senate in what might be the most challenging time since term limits and is the only person on this list to be the underdog in competitive general elections and primary elections, and win.

Many thought he would run for Congress, and when he passed some will wonder if he runs in 2024, or sits out a few years. Either way, if he chooses to run he will be a leading contender for any office.

Contributions this cycle: $86,325
Cash on hand: $62,945
Majority Forward PAC
Contributions this cycle: $152,427
Cash on hand: $155,752
Total cash on hand for the campaign: $218,697


#2 State Senator Bill Eigel
A lot of people spend their time in the legislature either raising money or connecting with activists. Sen. Bill Eigel has done both. He has been consistently fundraising, and on top of that, has positioned himself as one of the closest allies of the state’s newest mega-donor.

Further, he has built a relationship with conservative activists to where he can have 100 people show up to the rotunda at a moment’s notice.

Lastly, he has taken to hosting events with major Republican figures. His Candace Owens event was regarded as one of the most successful grassroots events anyone had seen in Missouri.

If he continues his fundraising and if events like his next with Donald Trump Jr. continue being successful, he will be a top contender for the executive branch.

Contributions this cycle: $89,783
Cash on hand: $118,851
BILL PAC/100 PAC
Contributions this cycle: $162,094/171,200
Cash on hand: $224,992/52,277
Total cash on hand for the campaign: $396,120


#3 State Senator Lincoln Hough
The only reason Sen. Lincoln Hough won’t be a statewide official is if he doesn’t want to run. He can raise money with anyone in the state, he is a legitimate cattle farmer, and he is from the ruby red 417. You also get the sense like with former Sen. Ron Richard that when he does something, it’s because he actually thinks it’s the right move, not a pander for Twitter likes.

While he is sitting on $600,000 before his re-election, that is almost certain to be an easy affair that he will be able to save most of the money he raises. Then he is likely to be Appropriations chairman for four years after that. He could leave the Senate with a couple million dollars and be able to position himself for the office of his choosing, possibly lieutenant governor. You know he spends a lot of time in the dais anyway.

Contributions this cycle: $312,388
Cash on hand: $306,833
Lincoln PAC
Contributions this cycle: $321,650
Cash on hand: $307,184
Total cash on hand for the campaign: $614,017


#4 House Floor Leader Dean Plocher
The speaker-to-be would be in a great position to run statewide as he cuts across almost every section of the party. First of all, he is a St. Louisan who actually cares about rural Missouri issues.

Dean Plocher at a press conference.

From bio-diesel to roads, Dean Plocher has in many ways been a better advocate from rural Missouri than most rural Missouri legislators.

He would also start a campaign with over 100 legislators to give him the lay of the land in their areas. Further, it’s become commonplace for speakers to leave the office and keep their money instead of giving it to the caucus, so he should leave the caucus with at least the $600,000 his predecessor is taking with him.

If he wants to run, he will be someone others avoid running against in 2024.

Contributions this cycle: $258,745
Cash on hand: $357,431
Missouri United PAC
Contributions this cycle: $391,745
Cash on hand: $300,416
Total cash on hand for the campaign: $657,847


#5 State Senator Tony Luetkemeyer
Sen. Tony Luetkemeyer has one of the larger warchests in the party — and that is before his re-election which will be a cakewalk even if his district were to change. He has become the go-to person for police to carry legislation in the Senate and has relationships with most conservative activists in the state.

He should top $1 million on hand before the end of session, and most of what he raises the rest of the cycle should be able to be banked for a statewide run that everyone in the Capitol believes is the next step for the senator from Platte.

Contributions this cycle: $626,896
Cash on hand: $610,999
Tony PAC
Contributions this cycle: $244,186
Cash on hand: $285,031
Total cash on hand for the campaign: $896,030


#6 Former House Speaker Elijah Haahr
One upside of terming out as the youngest speaker in state history is that you can take a few years off and still be younger than most others in the field. He has nearly $400,000 already in the bank, and a record of being speaker when the biggest pro-life legislation in state history became law. Further, his successor as speaker has made his time at the dais look all better every week.

You can tell he is still interested in the game as he is doing a good deal of radio down in Springfield. If he chooses to jump back in, he will be a top contender for whatever he aims for.

Cash on hand: $259,865
Bold PAC
Cash on hand: $123,036
Total cash on hand for the campaign: $382,901


#7 Dr. Jon Patterson
Rep. Jon Patterson is finishing his second term in the House and in a race for House floor leader, he is a rising star in the party. He can flat our raise money and has a life story that could be a made-for-TV movie.

Whether he enters House leadership, succeeds Sen. Mike Cierpiot in the Senate, or chooses to run statewide, he has more political ability than most on this list.

Contributions this cycle: $145,484
Cash on hand: $97,181
Missouri Alliance PAC
Contributions this cycle: $7,200
Cash on hand: $14,298
Total cash on hand for the campaign: $111,479


#8 Rep. Kurtis Gregory  
If you ask Republicans at Lincoln Days who they want their candidate to be, they might describe a successful farmer, former Mizzou football star, who can raise money, and no one wants to mess with. You would describe freshman Rep. Kurtis Gregory.

Rep. Kurtis Gregory

Being early in his career, he has pathways to run for House leadership, possibly a Senate seat, or to run for statewide office in 2024.

The sky is the limit for the gentleman from Saline.

Contributions this cycle: $58,017
Cash on hand: $52,786
Wonderdog PAC
Contributions this cycle: $9,200
Cash on hand: $7,743
Total cash on hand for the campaign: $60,529


#9 Former US Attorney Tim Garrison 
The former U.S. attorney from Springfield is going to be a top tier candidate should he run for office, and with his resume including being a veteran and U.S. attorney under President Trump, he has the perfect resume and seems to be making all the right friends to put himself in position to run — that is if he isn’t appointed attorney general should Eric Schmitt be elected to the U.S. Senate.


#10 Senator Andrew Koenig
Sen. Andrew Koenig won an upset win in his Senate primary in 2016. Then, he was the underdog to many in his general election in 2020, and all he did was win in a walk. He is one of very few senators who can speak to the entire Republican caucus on tough issues. He is still fundraising, he has conservative credentials, and his legislative success has kept the door open to his political future. Whatever he chooses to do next, I wouldn’t underestimate him.

Contributions this cycle: $72,210
Cash on hand: $45,471
Freedom Promise PAC
Contributions this period: $9,500
Cash on hand: $17,886
Total cash on hand for the campaign: $63,357


Leaving the list: Rep. David Gregory, running for state auditor; Sen. Bob Onder, likely running for St. Charles County executive; House Speaker Rob Vescovo, likely running for state Senate; and Rep. Mary Elizabeth Coleman running for state Senate.