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Statewide tipsheet 2020

   

Governor | TIP SHEET PREDICTION- Primary: SAFE PARSON General: LIKELY REPUBLICAN 

The biggest news from the fundraising quarter was State Auditor Nicole Galloway outraising the incumbent Governor by $350,000. Of course, the governor has been pretty hamstrung from fundraising since the pandemic began, but in fundraising, it doesn’t matter. Of course, the PAC cash on hand still gives the governor a huge lead. 

March began with Parson in control of the race, with Galloway’s best chance was the hope of an Eric Greitens primary challenge weakening Parson for a general election. Of course, those who watch our #SteinOfKnowledge show knew he wasn’t running back in January. However, for those who missed out: the month ended with Greitens not running, but the coronavirus shaking up everyone’s world. 

The government’s response to the virus is an opportunity for Galloway. When you win a state by 19 percent, almost anything unexpected is more likely to make your numbers falter than rise which will help Galloway. She probably has to have Trump’s Missouri win down to around 5-7 percent to win, and maybe this does that. 

Now the race will be held in a recession — and if the state isn’t opened up soon a depression — and the urban media is in a full attack on Parson. If Biden is able to lock down some traditionally Democratic states early, then maybe Missouri gets on a secondary list of states to dedicate resources too. With all that in mind the climate of uncertainty is an opportunity for Galloway to make the race closer. 

The primary will be colorful as Rep. Jim Neely loaned himself $184,000, and you have to think he doesn’t spend that money. But if he does, then he can try and win some of the Greitens bros online. However, the 2018 State Auditor candidate Saundra McDowell is currently making the biggest play for the Greitens bros with her Tiger King-worthy online videos she is making. They are a must-watch for anyone quarantined. The likely truth is McDowell or Neely are going to have to raise more than $1,000,000 to get the attention of Parson or anyone outside of fringe radio who could use an interesting guest. 

(R) Governor Mike Parson
Contributions this quarter: $289,000
Cash on hand: $1,411,000
Uniting Missouri PAC cash on hand: $3,841,000
(R) Rep. Jim Neely
Contributions this quarter: $0
Cash on hand: $197,000
(R) Saundra McDowell
Contributions this quarter: $0
Cash on hand: $0
(D) State Auditor Nicole Galloway
Contributions this quarter: $642,000
Cash on hand: $1,019,000
Keep Government Accountable PAC cash on hand: $939,000

Lt. Governor | TIP SHEET PREDICTION-  Primary: SAFE KEHOE General: SAFE REPUBLICAN

Something very dramatic is going to have to happen to change the dynamic to make this race anything but a coronation of Mike Kehoe. The more interesting thing will be once the state is back to some form of normal and the Lt. Governor has time to look up: What story will this campaign tell and how will it position him for a run for Governor in 2024?

(R) Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe

Contributions this quarter: $39,000

Cash on hand: $308,330

American Dream PAC cash on hand: $276,000
Former Kansas City Councilwoman Alissia Canady
Contributions this quarter: $0
Cash on hand: $0

Attorney General | TIP SHEET PREDICTION: SAFE REPUBLICAN

First off, let me get my “I like the spunk of Elad Gross” compliment out of the way right off the top. The guy is a hustler, and when this race is over he is going to have used it to be on the radar of a lot of people in the Democratic party. 

With that over, Eric Schmitt is going to win, by a lot. For real, like a lot. 

Rich Finneran is the more establishment Democrat in the race, and it’s going to be very interesting to see if the establishment attorney from a large firm wins, or does the young upstart who is popular with the grassroots win. In a Democratic primary where you really only have primary votes in St. Louis, Kansas City, and a few in Columbia and Springfield, you can actually meet a lot of the people who will vote in August. Finneran would probably be the candidate that could better take advantage of the world shift it would take to defeat Schmitt, but in our world, Gross would be an entertaining opponent for the tallest state senator in state history. 

One thing to keep in mind is that you have to be a licensed attorney to file for Attorney General so in 2020, as was the case in 2016, there won’t be minor party candidates on the ballot. That allowed for Josh Hawley “leading the ticket” in 2016. He used that to make the case that he would be the best U.S. Senate candidate in 2018. If Senator Blunt decides not to seek re-election in 2022 the same set of circumstances could unfold. 

(R) Attorney General Eric Schmitt
Contributions this quarter: $58,000
Cash on hand: $629,000
MO Opportunity PAC cash on hand: $1,656,000
(D) Elad Gross
Contributions this quarter: $26,000
Cash on hand: $24,000
(D) Rich Finneran
Contributions this quarter: $55,000
Cash on hand: $77,000

Secretary of State | TIP SHEET PREDICTION: SAFE REPUBLICAN

So here the underdog, Yinka Faleti outraised the incumbent by a good amount. But when the PAC fundraising is factored in along with the previous cash on hand, Jay Ashcroft still has a commanding fundraising lead. As we have mentioned before, Faleti is a very talented candidate and has impressed several, but he has an enormous hill to climb to make this race competitive. 

(R) Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft
Contributions this quarter: $38,000
Cash on hand: $313,000
Committee for Liberty PAC cash on hand: $100,000
(D) Yinka Faleti
Contributions this quarter: $73,000
Cash on hand: $103,000

Treasurer | TIP SHEET PREDICTION: LIKELY REPUBLICAN

Of all of the down-ballot races, former Rep. Vicki Englund is thought to have the best chance to take advantage of a shift in Missouri politics and maybe outperform the top of the ticket enough to pull off an upset. That might still be the case, but Biden is going to have to get that top of the ticket loss under 5 percent — and maybe under 3 percent — for that opportunity to arise, and she is going to have to have that cash on hand around $500,000 to make that work. 

Treasurer Scott Fitzpatrick simply has to hold his party’s support to win and moves like his  “stop socialism” campaign are golden ways to do that. The bigger question will be Fitzpatrick’s future, and that is likely to hinge on his ability to fundraise. A good deal of that quarter-million dollar cash on hand is carried over from his time as House Budget chair. He is very young for a statewide race with perhaps the brightest future in the party, but outside of Eric Schmitt in 2016 when he used his track record on economic development issues to propel him, the State Treasurer’s office is very difficult to fundraise from. While no one wants to hear it, the truth is that there is no future in politics, especially Republican politics, for poor fundraisers. It will be interesting going forward in this cycle to see how he can fundraise in an office where historically fundraising has been difficult. 

(R) State Treasurer Scott Fitzpatrick
Contributions this quarter: $14,000
Cash on hand: $257,000
Missourians for a Responsible Budget PAC cash on hand: $135,000
(D) Former State Rep. Vicki Englund
Contributions this quarter: $23,000
Cash on hand: $27,000