Statewide tipsheet: July 2020

From COVID-19 to racial unrest to the economy tanking, it’s not surprising that President Trump’s numbers are slipping — not only across the nation but in Missouri as well. That will affect the Republican ticket, but starting at Trump +19 on Election Day in 2016, that slippage was going to happen. The question will be: Is Missouri looking at Trump +10 to 12 or Trump +4 to 5?

It’s unlikely to affect the outcomes of the down-ticket races, but that number could change the dynamic in the Governor’s race.

Governor | TIP SHEET PREDICTION- Primary: SAFE PARSON General: LIKELY REPUBLICAN  There have been some polls that showed Nicole Galloway closing the gap. And one Democratic pollster had her even in the race. While it’s not a Parson +19 like Trump scored in ‘16, from the consistent polling we have seen, the race is between Parson +8 to Parson +12.

The primary has seen a spirited online effort by the 2018 Republican nominee for state auditor, Saundra McDowell. She has been hustling around the state and is likely to pick up some votes from Republicans who are angry with any incumbent. Rep. Jim Neely has based his campaign on opposing Governor Parson’s statewide order. Former Governor Eric Greitens, who quit the office in 2018, has returned to the playbook he has consistently read from since his time a few years ago when he was a Democrat: attacking conservative Republicans. His criticism should be a boost to McDowell and Neely.

However, with neither raising much money, it’s unlikely either will post more than a protest vote in the primary which Parson will win easily.

Galloway is very fortunate that she was able to avoid a primary which has allowed her to avoid having to talk about some of the current issues with someone staking out positions to the left of her.

(R) Governor Mike Parson Contributions this quarter: $481,641.07 Cash on hand: $1,547,802.93 Uniting Missouri PAC Cash on hand: $5,142,758.54

(R) Rep. Jim Neely Contributions this quarter: $10,484.00 Cash on hand: $193,386.74

(R) Saundra McDowell Contributions this quarter: $26,155.03 Cash on hand: $8,218.48

(D) State Auditor Nicole Galloway Contributions this quarter: $1,128,479.65 Cash on hand: $1,521,885.39 Keep Government Accountable PAC Cash on hand: $1,635,314.37

Lt. Governor | TIP SHEET PREDICTION-  Primary: SAFE KEHOE General: SAFE REPUBLICAN  You can tell Lt. Governor Mike Kehoe is making some waves as he drew the first straw in which Republican the Post-Dispatch would attack in an election year. With no real primary on either side, Kehoe has been putting a lot of miles on his Ford traveling the state, and something will have to dramatically change for this to become a race.

(R) Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe Contributions this quarter: $148,239.38 Cash on hand: $359,623.99 American Dream PAC Cash on hand: $185,593.02

(D) Former Kansas City Councilwoman Alissia Canady  Contributions this quarter: $47,578.49 Cash on hand: $34,164.07

Attorney General | TIP SHEET PREDICTION: Primary: LEAN GROSS General: SAFE REPUBLICAN  Missouri Democrats have seen a spirited primary unfold as the aggressive newcomer Elad Gross has been hitting the trail as hard as anyone in the state in his primary against the more establishment, big firm attorney Rich Finneran. Most Democrats expect Finneran to win, but that mood has changed as Gross has been campaigning hard for more than a year now. We are listing the race as leaning toward Gross.

However, whoever wins will start off as the decided underdog to the candidate we predict leads the ticket in November: incumbent Attorney General Eric Schmitt.

(R) Attorney General Eric Schmitt Contributions this quarter: $90,575.85 Cash on hand: $643,808.02 MO Opportunity PAC Cash on hand: $1,939,385.60

(D) Elad Gross Contributions this quarter: $37,289.47 Cash on hand: $38,515.30

(D) Rich Finneran Contributions this quarter: $79,974.47 Cash on hand: $78,770.50

Secretary of State | TIP SHEET PREDICTION: SAFE REPUBLICAN  Every tip sheet we write about how impressed those who meet with Yinka Faleti are. However, we then write that Jay Ashcroft is practically unbeatable in November.

Ashcroft has a solid amount of money and will have a higher-than-normal profile for a secretary of state this fall with the new voting laws. Faleti is an impressive person, but Ashcroft is an impressive candidate who is solidly favored to win.

(R) Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft Contributions this quarter: $20,065.00 Cash on hand: $322,591.86 Committee for Liberty PAC Cash on hand: $98,527.70

(D) Yinka Faleti Contributions this quarter: $154,326.01 Cash on hand: $182,187.48

Treasurer | TIP SHEET PREDICTION: LIKELY REPUBLICAN If the Trump number gets low enough, and Galloway really does close the gap, this is the race Democrats point to as their chance to rebuild a statewide bench. Incumbent Treasurer Scott Fitzpatrick is making the rounds, and no one that hears him speak isn’t impressed.

Former State Rep. Vicki Englund is a veteran of tough campaigns and will put the effort in. She has a wide money gap to close, and it seems that she is going to have to have some external factors break her way in order to change the dynamic of this race for her.

(R) State Treasurer Scott Fitzpatrick Contributions this quarter: $27,250.00 Cash on hand: $260,035.25 Missourians for a Responsible Budget PAC Cash on hand: $131,414.70

(D) Former State Rep. Vicki Englund Contributions this quarter: $31,293.38 Cash on hand: $16,567.66